Understanding the Inverted Cup and Handle Chart PatternUnderstanding the Inverted Cup and Handle Chart Pattern
Understanding chart patterns is fundamental for market participants. This article delves into the inverted cup and handle formation, a bearish signal indicating a potential downward movement. Explore its identification, trading strategies, psychological underpinnings, common pitfalls, and more to boost your trading knowledge.
What Is the Inverted Cup and Handle Pattern?
The inverted cup and handle, sometimes called an upside-down cup and handle pattern, is a bearish chart pattern that may appear during up- and downtrends. It is the opposite of the traditional cup and handle pattern, which is bullish. The inverse formation consists of two main parts: the "cup," which is an inverted U-shape, and the "handle," a small upward retracement following the cup.
Identifying the Inverted Cup and Handle Pattern
Identifying the inverse cup and handle pattern involves recognising a specific sequence of market movements that signal a potential bearish move. Here's a step-by-step overview of identifying this formation:
Cup Formation
- Shape: The pattern begins with an inverted U-shaped "cup." The price gradually rises, consolidates, and then begins to decline, reflecting a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment.
- Depth: The cup should have a rounded top, not a sharp V-shape, indicating a gradual reversal. The depth of the cup can vary but typically represents a significant portion of the preceding movement.
Handle Formation
- Upward Retracement: After the cup's formation, prices usually experience a minor upward retracement or consolidation, forming the "handle." This movement should be relatively short and not exceed the initial high of the cup.
- Shape and Duration: The handle often appears as a small flag or pennant and should be brief in duration compared to the cup. An optimal handle retraces no more than half of the cup’s depth.
Breakout Confirmation
- Neckline Break: The pattern is confirmed when prices break below the neckline, the lowest point of the handle. This breakout often leads to a significant decline in prices, signalling a bearish trend.
- Volume Surge: Volume typically decreases during the formation of the cup and increases as prices decline, especially during the handle formation. A substantial increase in volume during the breakout can validate the pattern and minimise the risk of false signals.
The Psychology of the Inverted Cup and Handle
The psychology behind the inverse cup and handle pattern is rooted in market sentiment and behavioural finance. This bearish pattern reflects a shift from optimism to pessimism among traders.
- Initial Uptrend: The formation starts with an upward movement, where traders are generally bullish, driving prices higher. This phase is marked by growing confidence and increasing demand.
- Formation of the Cup: As prices peak, consolidate, and start to decline, some traders begin to take profits, leading to reduced buying pressure. The rounded decline of the cup signifies a gradual shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish as traders become cautious and selling pressure mounts.
- Handle Formation: The minor upward retracement forming the handle indicates a brief period of consolidation where the market tests the resolve of buyers. It can be considered a dead cat bounce. This phase often traps optimistic traders who expect the uptrend to resume, but the overall sentiment remains fragile and cautious.
- Breakout and Decline: The decisive break below the neckline represents a culmination of bearish sentiment. At this point, selling pressure overwhelms any remaining bullishness, leading to a sharp decline. The volume surge during this breakout confirms the shift in market psychology from hopeful to bearish as traders rush to exit their positions or initiate short sales.
Trading the Inverted Cup and Handle Pattern
Trading the inverted cup and handle pattern involves careful identification and strategic decision-making to maximise potential returns. This pattern presents two primary entry points for traders: during the handle formation or after the neckline break.
Entry on the Break of the Handle
- Risk-Reward Advantage: Entering on the breakout of the handle’s lower boundary offers a better risk-to-reward ratio but requires more skill and confidence in pattern recognition.
- Technical Tools: Traders often use a medium-term moving average (like 21 periods) to confirm the downward leg of the handle. A decisive close below the moving average indicates a continuation of the downward handle leg.
- Momentum Indicators: Using momentum indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index) or stochastic oscillator helps confirm downward movement. Bearish divergence suggests that the bearish trend is likely to continue.
- Volume Analysis: Increasing volume during the handle's breakout indicates strengthening seller control. High volume often validates the pattern and potentially reduces the risk of false signals. Note that volume data may be less reliable in a decentralised forex market.
- Stop Loss and Profit Target: Traders typically place a stop loss above the handle's high to potentially protect against upward spikes. The reverse cup and handle pattern target is usually set at a distance equal to the cup's height, projected downward from the handle's breakout point, although it can be greater if the retracement is particularly shallow.
Entry After the Neckline Break
- Confirmation Advantage: Waiting for the neckline break offers greater confirmation of the formation but may provide a less favourable risk-to-reward ratio.
- Price Action: A decisive close below the pattern's low, ideally with a strong candlestick and minimal wicks, indicates a reliable breakout. This typically confirms the bearish trend and provides a clear entry signal.
- Volume Confirmation: Higher volume during the neckline break can further validate the pattern and indicate that the breakout is genuine and not a false signal.
- Stop Loss and Profit Target: In this scenario, the stop loss is typically set above the handle's high. The profit target remains the same, projecting the cup's height downward from the breakout point.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
When trading the upside-down cup and handle pattern, avoiding common mistakes is key for maximising potential returns. Some of the more common mistakes traders make include:
- Premature Entry: Entering a trade too early, before the handle completes or the neckline breaks, can lead to false signals and losses. Most traders wait for clear confirmation, such as a decisive close below the neckline with increased volume.
- Ignoring Volume: Volume is a critical component in confirming the pattern. Low volume during the breakout phase may indicate a fakeout. Traders typically look for a substantial increase in volume to validate the pattern.
- Incorrect Pattern Identification: Misidentifying the pattern is a common error. The cup should have a rounded bottom, not a sharp V-shape, and the handle should be relatively short. Accurate identification requires practice and attention to detail.
- Overlooking Market Conditions: External factors, such as news events or broader market trends, can impact the pattern’s reliability. Traders consider these conditions when planning their trades.
Advantages and Disadvantages
As with all chart patterns, the inverted cup and handle pattern comes with its pros and cons. Here are some key advantages and disadvantages of using this pattern:
Advantages
- Clear Signal: The pattern provides a clear signal of a potential bearish movement, helping traders anticipate market declines.
- Risk Management: With defined entry and exit points (handle high for stop loss and cup depth for profit target), it aids in effective risk management.
- Flexibility in Analysis: Several forms of analysis, from support/resistance and momentum indicators to volume and price action, can be used to trade the pattern.
- Versatility: Applicable across various timeframes and markets, including stocks, forex, and commodities, making it a versatile tool for different trading strategies.
Disadvantages
- Complex Identification: Accurately identifying the pattern can be challenging, requiring significant experience and skill.
- Rarity: The pattern doesn’t occur frequently, limiting trading opportunities.
- False Breakouts: Like all chart patterns, it is susceptible to false breakouts, especially if not confirmed with volume and other technical indicators.
- Timing Sensitivity: Entering too early during the handle formation can result in premature positions, while waiting for the neckline break might reduce the risk-to-reward ratio.
The Bottom Line
The inverted cup and handle pattern is one of the most popular chart patterns among traders of all levels. However, like any technical formation, it should be used alongside other indicators and sound risk management to potentially increase its effectiveness. By mastering patterns like the inverted cup and handle, traders can gain deeper insights into market psychology and price action to navigate volatile markets with greater confidence.
FAQ
What Is the Inverse Cup and Handle Pattern in Forex?
The inverse cup and handle pattern in forex is a bearish chart pattern. It features an inverted U-shaped cup followed by a small upward retracement (the handle). This pattern suggests that sellers are gaining control, and prices are likely to decline further once the neckline is broken.
How Can You Trade the Inverse Cup and Handle?
Traders can enter positions either on the break of the handle’s lower boundary or after the neckline break. Entering during the handle might offer a better risk-to-reward ratio, while waiting for the neckline break provides greater confirmation. Key tools to validate the breakout include moving averages, momentum indicators like RSI or stochastic oscillator, and volume analysis.
What Happens After the Reverse Cup and Handle Pattern?
After the reverse cup and handle pattern is completed, the price typically moves downward strongly. This bearish movement is often confirmed by a strong breakout below the neckline with increased volume, signalling a sustained decline in prices.
What Is the Opposite of the Cup and Handle?
The opposite of a cup and handle is the inverse cup and handle pattern. While the cup and handle indicates a bullish movement, the inverse version signals a bearish trend.
Is the Inverted Cup and Handle Bullish or Bearish?
The inverted cup and handle pattern is bearish. It indicates that the price will move downwards, suggesting that traders may open short trades.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Cupandhande
Updated Ascending Triangle!I wanted to update everyone following the TA on GME. It looks like yesterday's sideways movement has widened the Ascending Triangle on the 1-hour chart, which was expected due to the Cup & Handle formation on the daily chart. This sideways movement has now set up the handle on the daily chart and makes for a much larger breakout than anticipated.
Here's the latest development: Along with the widening of the hourly Ascending Triangle, the 4-hour pennant breakout has now formed a second small pennant, which also makes up the handle for the Cup on the daily chart. Additionally, GME is still in the middle of a Bull Flag breakout on the Weekly chart, on top of a Golden Cross!
Here's the current breakdown:
1-hour chart: Ascending Triangle
4-hour chart: (New)Bull Pennant
Daily chart: Cup & Handle
Weekly chart: Bull Flag + Golden Cross
I've never seen a setup quite like this before. The breakout across all timeframes is going to be something special for sure. I'm just counting down the days until these patterns breakout across all timeframes.
For those following this for the first time, here's some exciting historical context: The last time GME had a Golden Cross on the weekly chart was back in January 2021, and GME saw a 12,000% move in just 183 trading days.
Don't blink—we are right around the corner from history in the making! ✌️
Will BTCUSD’s Breakout Lead to a $90K Target?CRYPTO:BTCUSD
Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Current Price: 71,149.92
Bullish Indicators
• Cup and Handle Pattern
• Descending Broadening Wedge
Key Levels
• Strong Pivot Level: 62,500
• Ultimate Resistance: 75,000.00
• Primary Price Target: 90,000.00
Cup and Handle Pattern (Weekly Chart)
On the weekly chart, BTCUSD has formed a Cup and Handle pattern—a classic bullish continuation pattern suggesting renewed buying interest after a period of consolidation. The rounded bottom of the cup indicates strong accumulation, while the handle represents a temporary consolidation before the next upward move. Based on the measured depth of the cup, we find a potential long-term price projection around 120,000.00, aligning with broader bullish expectations in the current trend.
Descending Broadening Wedge (Daily Chart)
Zooming in on the daily chart, the handle section has formed a Descending Broadening Wedge. This pattern is another bullish indicator, often signaling potential for a breakout to the upside as it nears completion. Importantly, the price has recently broken the upper trendline of the wedge, reinforcing the likelihood of an upward movement. Based on our measurement of this wedge, we set a mid-term price target of 90,000.00, supporting the broader bullish outlook indicated by the Cup and Handle.
Monitor Key Support and Resistance Levels:
The strong pivot at 62,500 serves as a critical support level. Sustained movement above this level reinforces the bullish case.
Resistance Checkpoints:
Price momentum toward the ultimate resistance at 75,000.00 will be crucial to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend toward the primary target of 90,000.00.
Happy Trading!
For timely updates and additional insights, follow us to stay informed on BTCUSD’s next moves.
[C&H] TRON is creating base for move up higherKRAKEN:TRXUSD seem to have broken out of a cup and handle pattern and in process of retest/consolidation. It might retest the breakout zone around 0.143 before a move up higher. Note that all time highest close (higher green line) would likely act as resistance but if we manage to break past it then we should see 0.41 levels as per the height of C&H pattern.
From Elliott wave perspective though, it looks much more bullish with a potential target of 1.12 in medium term. Will share the counts in a separate post.
BTC can Reach $125k If It Manages to Break this ... !!As I mentioned last year, Bitcoin could return to its peak, and it has. Now, as you can see, Bitcoin is in a cup and handle pattern on the weekly timeframe. This can be an incredibly strong signal for a price increase. If the breakout happens, Bitcoin's price could reach $125,000 in the new year, which is not far-fetched, just like the AB=CD pattern.
previous Analysis
Bitcoin - Time to buy again!
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Big fan of the GOLD cup and handleI'm liking the cleanliness of the 2011 - 2024 cup and handle. I am going to be a little unconventional here by going with a % target rather than $ target, which means I'm looking for a nearly 100% increase from the top of the cup ($2050) which gives a target of around $4100. It could certainly go higher depending on geopolitical issues, global finance issue, global debt issues, etc. but I think that's a good rest stop for this particular pattern.
As for stops, gold is the only currency to have stood the test of time therefor we don't stop out on dips, we buy mor.
ETH/BTC ratio signalizes 'Alt Season' soonMany see this ETH/BTC price ratio as the ignition for the Alt Season
Price is flerting with a long multi-year resistence, since 2021! A strong break out here will signal the so waited Alt Season, but first there must be a retest of the lowest purple line, the Beam Band bottom line
Also here, we are still waiting for a local bottom blue tag from Hodlfire indicator
As another indicator to watch is the bottom panel indicator, the Detornator C, as it is still red, almost crossing the zero line
So... 3 points of confirmation of Alt Season:
1- Retest of bottom Beam Band line
2- Hodlfire buy tag
3- Detonator C above zero line
What is interesting here, is that the upper Beam Band coincides with the target of the Cup & Handle formation when ETH/BTC price will reach a staggering 0.735 ETH for each BTC! If this ratio would be today, ETH price would be 45k!
Time will tell!
TQQQ - Cup awaiting Handle ?TQQQ on a weekly chart in 2021 ascended into a falling wedge. As part of the falling wedge,
it started the downside initial part of a cup and handle pattern. The reversal occurred 11
months ago with the upside completion of the cup back to 57.5 In the typical cup and handle,
the handle then forms in a 50% retracement of the height of the cup. the cup height measures
44.5 over a period of about 9 months. Notably relative volumes peaked at the bottom of the
pattern. Once the retracement is complete, bullish continuation should occur to the extent of
the height of the cup above the lip. That is to say an uptrend from 57.5 adding 44.5 to get to
102 more or less. But first the retracement and reversal must occur.
Accordingly, if this is an incomplete cup and handle, it forecasts a retracement of 44.5 divided
by 2 or to about 38 as shown by the Fib retracement tool. After that price must reverse
then overcome the resistance of the lip of the cup ( 57.5) and continue to 102.
Overall, this forecasts that a bearish crash is in store for TQQQ ( as well as QQQ from which
it is leveraged). Time will tell if this pattern has given an accurate forecast. In the meanwhile,
I will watch for signs of QQQ topping out on the weekly time frame after the same signs on
lower time frames. The alternative view is that TQQQ is building an even bigger cup
right now with the lip at about 88 when the price had a high pivot down on November 22, 2021.
So, do you see a bigger or smaller cup pattern or none at all?
Bitcoin - macro analysis, determining the potential peak of the Hello, fellow traders. At the beginning, the first observation - we are in such a phase of the cycle that even I want to write something... :) It will be short and to the point. Not everyone will like it, because they don't assume that we get into the rockets, fasten our seat belts and fly immediately "to the moon". My previous analysis (unfortunately not available here, but it is on Twitter) based on a logarithmic chart and a simple RGR precisely measured the bottom of the bear market. When I drew it in April 2022, no one was convinced of such a possibility, no one wanted to see RGR at all. And of course, as I remember today, the voices saying "We will never be below 30k again!"
Coming to the heart of the matter, i.e. the current situation:
1. It seems very strange to me that we did not make a proper correction on the way to the current highs
2. Since we did not make a correction, I think it is very likely that we will make it by bouncing from the previous ATH.
3. The chart from ATH to the current moment looks like an arc movement to me
4. That's why I selected the "cup and handle" formation as an ideal one for drawing a macro projection assuming a correction from the previous peak.
5. I drew a line from the bottom of the bear market to the ATH and copied it above the current ATH to mark the top of the next bull market. Let me remind you that we are on the LOG chart.
6. In order not to limit myself perfectly to the lines from this simple measurement, I made two Fibonnacci retracements:
- One from the bottom of the bear market to now
- Second from the bottom of the last correction to now
7. I marked the peak zone between 5,618 fibo levels
8. I marked the correction zone between the 0.5 Fibo retracements
The potential peak according to this projection is $270-312k, but first we need to break the levels of the green zone.
To sum up, personally I am ready for correction and I expect it.
Greed is high, memes are going crazy - it's time to trick the street and buy it back in a few months, when they will be disappointed in the boom.
Raising My Targets on Litecoin. New Cup and Handle Spotted.As you know, I went long LTC at around $68. My target was $81. I am now in the profit and have raised my stops to just over break even ensure that I won't take a lost. While browsing the charts this morning, I spotted something on Litecoin that I did not see previously, a new cup and handle pattern! This one is longer term and gives Litecoin a much higher target, or targets. I will be raising my targets on Litecoin now due to this new pattern spotted.
Target one will be $89.
Target two will be $96.
This is not fin advice.
Best,
Stewdamus
📊 Understanding the Cup and Handle PatternA cup and handle is a technical analysis pattern that appears on a chart as a U-shaped pattern, followed by a small downward drift, resembling a handle.
It is important to note that like all technical analysis patterns, the cup and handle pattern is not a guarantee of future price movements and should be used in conjunction with other analysis techniques.
📈Cup and Handle
It is considered a bullish pattern and is often used by traders to indicate the potential for an upcoming price increase.
The pattern is formed when the price of a security falls, reaches a bottom, and then rises back up to near its previous high before falling again. The downward drift that follows is the handle.
The pattern is considered complete when the price breaks through the resistance level (the top of the cup) and continues to rise. Technical traders using this indicator should place
a stop buy order slightly above the upper trendline of the handle part of the pattern.
📉Inverted Cup and Handle
After the cup forms and the beginning of a noticeable handle takes shape, begin to monitor trading volume closely.
One way to think of the inverted handle is a follow-up to an inverted cup. The inverted handle retraces the initial move, but not to the level of the original trend.
Once you see a retracement in the form of an inverted handle of the original inverted cup pattern, setting a stop loss while selling the trend could be a potential trade idea.
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ABCL - Cup & Handle Breakout TradeAbcellera Biologics is a biotech stock setting up in a textbook cup with handle pattern.
The stock has growing institutional sponsorship as shown in the chart from MarketSmith on the chart. It also has a relative strength ranking of 97/100.
Shares formed a cup with a 37% depth and have since drifted back slightly to form a defined handle.
I will consider buying on a break above the dashed downtrend line of the handle.
BRISE - possibly a 30 to 50% pump coming with CEX listing!I was watching for coins or tokens to purchase if BTC would crash, I looked at Solana and saw market cap is still 11 billion. I thought, well, lets look for fastest blockchains, maybe there is a new one. I found Brise, then I saw it went up by 300% in a couple of weeks. I looked in the Telegram and saw there was a CEX listing coming, then I decided to open a chart, and what do we see. This blockchain is faster than Solana, has a market cap of 300 million at 0.0000009 and supply of 474T.
- cup and handle formation
- ascending triangle
RSI shows slight bullish divergence, with overbought conditions. I expect a 30 to 50% pump within a week! DYOR.
IPO base breakout / Cup and handleMissed the base breakout. buying as the price retraces back and turns back up on upside, the way Mark Minervini buys pullback setups
Chart detailed out
Bought at 345 with 10% position size
Stop at day's low or previous day low
Publishing for my own reference. Not an investment/trading advice.
The strategy: Up till 24150, down from thereThe cup and handle currently being formed would suggest we go higher, but the coinciding of the 200MA on the daily timeframe with the bearish butterfly harmonic pattern suggests that upward pressure will be cut short around 24150, finally marking the highest point of the bearflag and it's breakout to the downside.