AUDCHF: Sell Signal on a 1D MA50 rejection.The AUDCHF pair is on a long term Channel Down that has just been rejected on the 1D MA50. The 1D technicals are marginally bearish (RSI = 44.758, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 32.406) meaning that this is still a sell opportunity in its early stages. As in December, target the LL line (TP = 0.580000).
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EURAUD: May take a month to establish a Support. Accumulation.The EURAUD pair is on a strong green 1D candle today, turning 1D technicals neutral again (RSI = 48.319, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 27.956) after the 1D RSI rebounded from a 42.000 three month low yesterday. It did so after crossing under the 1D MA50 for the first time in 2.5 months.
As long as S1 holds, we see a lengthy (even 1 month) support formation, inside a long term Channel Up, a formation similar to January/ February. Our long term target is the 1.236 Fibonacci (TP = 1.69500).
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AUDNZD: Sell signal confirmed.The AUDNZD pair got rejected on the 1D MA50 turning the 1D technicals bearish (RSI = 42.793, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 30.864) for the first time in a month. The price got also rejected on the 1D MA200 and the LH trendline on April 21st, which started the current bearish leg. This may give a rise to a Channel Down. We are short, targeting the HL trendline (TP = 1.05300) and is the price closes under the S1, we expect a bearish extension to S2.
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AUDCAD: Sell at the top of the Channel Down.The AUDCAD pair is on the 1D MA50 for the third successive day, which is also the top of the Channel Down pattern. The 1D technicals have turned neutral (RSI = 52.833, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 23.757), indicating that this is technically a firm sell entry.
We will use this opportunity to short and target the S3 (TP = 0.88650) as all the Higher Lows of the uptrend have been filled by this Channel Down. On the contrary, if the price crosses over the R1, we will go long and target the R2 (TP = 0.92400).
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EURCAD: Last buy round then sell to the 4H MA200.EURCAD is on a very consistent bullish pattern since February giving low risk buy signals on the HL trendline and sell signals on the HH trendline. This is well illustrated by the bullish technicals on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 63.779, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 34.173). The price is currently on the final bullish wave to the HH trendline, and we will stay long with TP = 1.51550. That is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, which marked the previous Higher High (HH). Then we will sell targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 1.4900).
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EURUSD: Buy signal on emerging MACD Bullish Cross.EURUSD held this week the Channel Up pattern of March and remains on bullish technicals across the 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.701, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 39.732). As long as S1 holds, we expect a break of R1 and a new Higher High for the Channel Up on the 1.618 Fibonacci (TP = 1.11800). If however S1 breaks, we will switch to selling and target S2 and the 1D MA50 near S3 (TP = 1.08500).
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CHFJPY: Pullback for a month, then buy opportunityCHFJPY is an almost overbought 1D technicals (RSI = 69.922, MACD = 1.670, ADX = 65.369), rising non-stop since March 20th inside this 1 year Channel Up. The pattern is much like the June 29th 2022 top that after almost hitting Fibonacci 2.0, it pulled back to the 1D MA50 and resumed the rise to Fibonacci 2.618. Consequently, we are selling this pullback and once the 1D MA50 is hit, we reverse to buying (TP = 160.000).
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GBPJPY reached a top. Sell opportunity.GBPJPY crossed under the 4hour MA50 for the second time in 4 days.
Based on the 4hour RSI, it is similar to the February 28th top inside the long term Channel Up.
Sell and target 164.250, potentially a contact with the 4hour MA200.
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USDJPY Head and Shoulders forming. Sell.USDJPY is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern right on the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
That, along with the 1day MA200 which had the last major rejection (March 8th) are the ideal sell entries.
Target Support A (129.700) on the short term. The long term target can be much greater.
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TRADE UPDATE EUR/JPY - On track to the first target at 157.57 W Formation formed on the Currency Pair.
We had strong signs from the indicators including
7>21>200 - Bullish
RSI>50 (Higher Lows)
Target 157.57
As there is high volatility in the market (with whipsawed wicks), it's for this reason we would place the stop loss below the second Ronding Bottom.
SMC
Also below the 2nd RB is a Sell SIde Liquidity Order Block, which SM is buying into. Hence the price is heading up.
GBPJPY: Channel Up needing a pull backThe GBPJPY pair has been trading inside a Channel Up pattern for the majority of the year and with the price now on its top, the 1D technicals are naturally bullish (RSI = 65.660, MACD = 1.070, ADX = 50.539).
A Golden Cross will be formed by next week and just as the Death Cross was on a bottom on Jan 17th, the Golden Cross can be the Channel's new Higher High and start a pull back to its bottom. Sell as long as the price closes inside the Channel Up and buy near the bottom (TP = 168.000).
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GBPUSD: Rejection expected around 1.2650 and then long term buyThe GBPUSD pair crossed over the Resistance level that was in place since December 14th with the 1D technicals displaying healthy bullish numbers (RSI = 65.308, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 28.394). The 1D RSI is rebounding on the former LH trendline and this is an indication that the current rise can extend more. The R1 Zone is the next Resistance and is where we expect (around 1.2650) to make the final pullback to the 1D MA50 and Fibonacci 0.5 level before it rebounds to R2 for our long term target (TP = 1.3090). If the price crosses over the dashed line first, then the pullback is negated and we can see 1.3090 earlier than expected.
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NZDUSD Head and Shoulders pattern issues a sell signalThe NZDUSD pair is under the MA50 (4h) and about to complete a Head and Shoulders pattern.
A break under Support (1) would accelerate what is already a strong sell signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Use split lot. Sell half on the current market price and the rest if/ when the RSI hits its Resistance.
Targets:
1. 0.6100 (over Support 2).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) completed a bullish cross on the lowest level in the past month. This may delay the drop to Support (2) for a while but doesn't invalidate the pattern.
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USDJPY: Very clear levels to trade.The USDJPY pair is inside an Ascending Triangle on the 1D timeframe, around the 1D MA50 and with the technicals basically neutral (RSI = 56.011, MACD = -0.010, ADX = 22.352). Our trading plan is simple. Sell on the 1D MA200 and target the HL of the Triangle (TO = 132.000). Buy above the R1 and target the R2 (TP = 142.250). If we close under the HL of the Triangle, sell and target the S1 (TP = 127.300). Below the S1 target the S2 (TP = 122.000).
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AUDCHF: Trade around this trendline.The AUDCHF pair is trading inside a nearly 1 year Channel Down, with the 1D technicals obviously bearish (RSI = 35.683, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 40.124). We will trade according to whether the LL trendline holds or breaks. If it breaks, we will sell and target the bottom of the Channel Down (TP = 0.58000). If it holds, we will buy and target the 1D MA200 (TP = 0.62000).
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EURUSD: Head and Shoulders targeting 1.07500 before a new rebounThe EURUSD pair is in the process of completing a Head and Shoulders pattern with the 4H technicals neutral (RSI = 51.260, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 33.876) on the Right Shoulder. The 4H RSI is under an HL trendline, which keeps it bearish short term, while having crossed under its HL trendline yesterday.
The target of the Head and Shoulders can go as low as the 2.0 Fibonacci (1.0700), but since the 1D MA50 and 4H MA200 are both around 1.07500, we are aiming at this as the sell target and subsequently buy entry. Long term TP = 1.10350.
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AUDUSD Very low risk tradesAUDUSD hit Support (1) and is rebounding.
The Fibonacci levels align almost perfectly with Support-Resistance levels.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy for as long as the price is closing over Support (1).
2. Sell if it closes under Support (1).
Targets:
1. 0.67850 (Resistance 1)
2. 0.65700 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) hit the 25-day Falling Support. This is an additional buy indicator for as long as it holds.
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GBPAUD Buy the next pullback.The GBPAUD pair is on overbought 1D technicals (RSI = 70.497, MACD = 0.019, ADX = 49.220) with the price also close to the HH trendline of the past 9 months. We are buying the next pullback towards the S1 Zone and the 1D MA50, targeting R1 (TI = 1.9200).
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AUDNZD: Rejected on the long term Pivot. Bearish.The AUDNZD pair is technically bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 42.033, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 29.502), trading under the P1 Zone, which has been in place since 2021. It is under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and it targeting the HL trendline (TP = 1.05300). If the dashed LH trendline breaks, we will buy aiming at R1 (TP = 1.10800).
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NZDJPY: High upside potential.The NZDJPY pair is on a neutral technical price action on the 1D time frame (RSI = 51.078, MACD = -0.120, ADX = 32.313) as it reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 1D MA50 yesterday. This is the middle level of the long-term trading range inside the S1 and R1 Zones since April 20th 2022. So essentially this pair has been trading sideways for almost 1 year.
Since the price recently rebounded (March 24th) at the top of the S1 Zone, we take this as a solid buy opportunity to target Fibonacci 0.786 (TP = 86.300).
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CADJPY: Mixed patterns. Trade these levels only.CADJPY is trading inside a Channel Down pattern with the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 51.739, MACD = -0.070, ADX = 39.994). Right noe the price is on the 1D MA50 and is bearish within the Channel Down targeting for its bottom (TP = 94.250).
In spite of that, with a 1D RSI on HL and last time the price was on the 1D MA50 from a leg up, extending to the top of the Channel Down, we might see the emergence of a Channel Up targeting the 1D MA200. As a result, if we see a break over today's High, we will buy and target firstly Fibonacci 0.382 (TP = 100.400) and secondly Fibonacci 0.5 and the 1D MA200 (TP = 102.000).
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AUDCAD: Selling is the best option on this Channel Down.AUDCAD is trading inside a Channel Down pattern with the 1D technicals bearish (RSI = 43.171, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 38.042). Even though the long term pattern is bearish, the rebound yesterday and closing over the 1D MA200 can be a bullish signal along with the HL that the RSI is on (bullish divergence). However until the 1D MA50 breaks, we cannot call for any upward movement on the long term.
We remain sellers on this pair, targeting S2 (TP = 0.89500).
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EURUSD First 4hour Golden Cross since October.EURUSD failed to cross over Fibonacci 0.786 for the second time in 1 week. This is bearish short term.
Long term though, it is rising after the first 4hour Golden Cross in 5 months (more specifically October 26th).
Though a pull back to Fibonacci 0.382 is possible and would be a gift, our long term Target is intact at 1.10250.
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