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EURGBP takes first step, but will we see a new continuation?Hi, and welcome to Thursday’s update. In today’s video, we are focusing on the EURGBP. Price formed a solid bar higher in yesterday’s session and could be the start of a new continuation. Price continues to trade outside the downtrend, and we could be seeing a possible start of a new uptrend after yesterday’s solid close higher. We want to see a break of the current resistance level (.8453) and a break of the existing supply area that runs up to .8470. If buyers can clear these levels, we will be looking for a new continuation to be confirmed. If the trend does continue, we would be looking at .8533 as the next point of resistance. The GBPUSD is also a factor, and we will be looking for a break lower on that pair to help boost the case of the EURGBP. A close back below .8435 would suggest that this pattern could be failing, and traders may need to give the market more time. If you have any thoughts on this pattern or on the EURGBP, we would love to hear your feedback. We hope you are enjoying your Thursday and good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
GBPNZD-- Skillset demo on 1H TF scalp trade (6:1 RR)I do not typically entertain intricate/unreliable unit analysis using small timeframes. This is simply because "The closer you look, the less predictable the behavior becomes". I will not be referring to the much more imperative timeframe analysis' (1W, 1M, etc.) that I have drawn up (and partly visible) regarding the GBPNZD on this posting, not sorry. Nevertheless, I do feel compelled to demonstrate that it is possible for market participants to identify and react to small timeframe price action and produce a net gain.. Even if the risk is taken using a data set analysis done on what has been proven an extremely unreliable keynote of units; those being the 1H & smaller timeframes. How, you ask? Well, first lets just be completely clear: In my experiences, price closes should not be considered or reacted to on any units if they are smaller than a 4H unit. A trade made on a small timeframe is called a "scalp", and though many people may disagree with me here, I am calling this trade idea on the 1H timeframe a "scalp" trade.. The first thing we should notice when looking at the chart shown above is the strong reaction to the price area of 1.878 (+/-), & a clean impulse, followed by the consolidation of price movement-- this is where we are currently trading. Although many traders prefer to utilize swing levels (lol) when drawing Fibonacci retracements, I have found my success in the markets as well as confluence with other types of indicators and comparable analysis' when I retrace "clean impulses", or 3+ green or red candles in a row (Plus, the candles on either side of the clean impulse), as opposed to retracing full swings. A clear example of this approach is well demonstrated on this publishing. Please let me know in the comments if you would like more information on how I use Fibonacci theory to find success in extracting value from a market. One of the many first principles I always apply when scalp trading is "the target is the pullback", which is what I am confident is taking place on GBPNZD as I write this. Although there is PLENTY of potential for price to hit levels lower than the .618 retracement level, the reduction of risk and security of net gain takes place then (immediately), which is much earlier and more conservative than if I was taking a risk while applying a higher unit analysis and data set. This is how you can net gain in such unpredictable data sets. After all, it is the target... Happy trading, and good luck!
by Bobbyusesfib
2
Could we see a new move lower on the EURUSD?Hi all, welcome to Wednesday’s update. Focus today is on the EURUSD daily chart as we continue to watch the current consolidation after buyers failed to clear resistance and sellers took back control in yesterday’s session. Price remains in its downtrend, and we continue to see price hold its pattern of trend with LLs and LHs. Sellers just moved through the short-term uptrend yesterday, but buyers are active today, and we are seeing some higher movement holding the consolidation pattern. History could be on the seller side as we have seen two previous moves lower from points of consolidation. To signal a sell, we want to see today’s buying fail and a new decent break of yesterday’s low. If we see a higher close today and a new move back to the top of the consolidation range, this may indicate that seller strength is not as strong as thought yesterday. Thanks for tuning in, and we wish you all the best for the rest of the day. Good trading.
Short
by Eightcap
CADJPY Triangle Gives Us Clear Entry for a BuyTriangles are always a treat to find on the charts. This is because the pattern provides an entry signal that is clear and easy to execute. In Elliott Wave Theory, a triangle pattern consists of 5 internal subwaves, ABCDE. When those subwaves are complete, a break of the triangle is expected in the direction of the trend that occurred prior to the triangle. In this case, we are expecting a thrust to the upside, now that wave (e) is potentially complete. Triangles always come before the final move in the larger term wave sequence. In CADJPY, this means we are expecting one more wave to the upside before price corrects to the downside. The triangle pattern gives us everything we need to catch that final bull move. Price must remain above the invalidation level of 103.34 for this interpretation to remain valid. At minimum, we expect a move to the previous highs. We are targeting the 108.00 handle as our initial profit target. There is a good reason for this too... comment below if you want to learn how Elliott Wave Theory can help you find high probability targets as well. At Parallax, we focus on wave analysis and 1-on-1 education to build a foundation of skills that give our clients the edge. We trade Crypto, Forex (FX), and equities. We keep our analysis simple, clear, and easy to execute. Comment below if you would like to see more trade ideas, Elliott wave analysis, and market updates
Long
by ImreSG
6
USDCAD setting up for a new leg lower?Hello to all our subscribers and to the TradingView community, thanks for tuning in for today’s update. Today we are looking at the USDCAD off the daily chart as sellers look to be pushing at a new leg lower. Yesterday sellers put to bed a quick recovery rally from buyers by not only killing the candle but by also breaking below 1.2855 support. This could be significant as that support level has stood for buyers since June. On top of the support break, we can also see a trend break and a new LH with the moving averages crossing and sloping downwards. The OBV indicator is also sloped down and has set two LHs. Today price has run lower after a brief attempt to fight back, and we are looking for sellers to break the final point of demand at 1.2820. A close below that point could set of a new leg lower. Also supporting sellers at this stage is a higher oil price. So far, USOUSD is 1.58% higher. Normally when oil is higher, the USDCAD is lower as the CAD is a commodity currency and rallies with oil. If we see a reversal and close back above 1.2855 that would be a worry for the current idea. Thursday mornings (AEST time) FOMC meeting could also have an impact on this picture. The market expects a rate increase to 2.50% from the FED this week.
Short
by Eightcap
EURUSD, buyers starting to set up a new continuation? Welcome to Thursday's update. So far today, we have been watching the EURUSD as buyers have started to fight back after some demand crept in yesterday. We are watching the current price to see if a new continuation can confirm on the 4H chart as price continues to sit on its new fast uptrend. We can see the latest trend forming after buyer's first leg higher broke the last downtrend, but we still need to see price confirm with a new push higher from this point. We would like to see a test of 1.0250 resistance, and a break of that level could confirm that we have a new trend underway. The ECB meets later today, and rates are expected to increase by 25 basis points. This is a special occasion as rates have not moved in the EU for some time now. Attention will always be on the statement and if there are hints of more to come. Will this give the EUR a short-term boost? We want to see price continue to trade firm until the decision. If we see a break of the current trend or a move below 1.0155 this could be a bad sign for buyers on the short term. Ensure you tune in for today's ECB meeting at 8:15 am EST. Enjoy the rest of you your day and good trading.
Long
by Eightcap
USDJPY Rally Slowing Down; Get Ready to Go ShortThe USDJPY rally has a bit more gas in the tank than we first thought. But the 5 wave impulse that we were tracking is developing nicely, and still appears to be running out of steam. Here is our updated analysis on the lower time frames: we have a 5 wave impulse that is nearing completion (at multiple wave degrees). And even better: what pattern appears to be developing? Another triangle! If you saw our previous post on this pair, you know that we love to see triangles on the chart, as they are indicative of a trend change. So in this case, we are expecting a small wave up to new highs, after which a swift reversal should occur. Price must remain above 138.56 for the triangle interpretation to remain valid. If this wave count plays out, we will have significant opportunities to go short this pair. Let us know what you think! At Parallax, we focus on wave analysis and 1-on-1 education to build a foundation of skills that give our clients the edge. We trade Crypto, Forex (FX), and equities. We keep our analysis simple, clear, and easy to execute. Comment below if you would like to see more trade ideas, Elliott wave analysis, and market updates
Short
by ImreSG
4 Hour Short Sell Completed on AUDUSDHi Purpose traders! I'd like to give shoutouts to my clients when they take amazing trades. Today, I am highlighting Jacobi who took a beautiful sell on AUDUSD the beginning of this week and it reached profit yesterday. She used my TMP strategy that led her to saying yes to the trade. All she needed to know was what was the trend, where she wanted to enter the trade, exit the trade, and that's it! Congrats to you Jacobi, and anyone else who entered the trade. Have questions? Comment them below and let's chat.
Short
by ShaquanLopez
1
USDJPY Rally Slowing Down; Get Ready to Go ShortUSDJPY has seen an impressive rally from the lows in late May. But there are cracks in the armor: we see strong momentum divergences in both the MACD and the RSI. We also have a nearly complete 5 wave sequence (the wave count inside the circles), with a triangle as wave ((4)). This is very telling from an Elliott Wave point of view. Why? The triangle pattern ALWAYS precedes the final move in the larger term sequence. So, if we have a triangle pattern in wave ((4)), this suggests that we need a final wave ((5)) up (which price is tracing out now), after which the trend will shift to the downside. How exactly you enter this position is up to you. You could wait for price to break through the support shelf around 134.30-134.80. Or if you practice Elliott Wave theory, you could wait for a smaller time frame impulse wave to the downside to confirm the new trend. Either way, we believe that the best trades in USDJPY will be to the downside. At Parallax, we focus on wave analysis and 1-on-1 education to build a foundation of skills that give our clients the edge. We trade Crypto, Forex (FX), and equities. We keep our analysis simple, clear, and easy to execute. Comment below if you would like to see more trade ideas, Elliott wave analysis, and market updates
Short
by ImreSG
1
USDCAD set to stall at or break key resistance?Hello to our subscribers and the TradingView community welcome to Wednesday’s update. With oil tumbling and the USD jumping, we can only think of one pair that benefits from those two moves. The USDCAD is highly driven on both fronts, and the CAD is a commodity currency that generally tracks oil’s fortunes. The USD, well yeh enough said. Last night we saw key moves on oil and the USD. Oil shed up to 10% and briefly traded below the $100 level. The USD shot higher, the index trading above 106.50. Looking at the daily USDCAD chart below, we can see that price continues to trade in a new fast trend after buyers took control on the 8th of June. Since then, we have seen one reaction that set up demand and an HL late in June. Buying has continued into July, with traders retesting key resistance and supply areas that have stood since May. The recent resistance and supply lines up with a longer-term level of supply /resistance that runs back to November 2020. This is our line in the sand that buyers must break to continue the current trend. If we see a break above these levels, it could be game on with 1.31 and 1.32 or higher a possibility. Fail, and we would look for a new move to possibly retest the 1.2850 area. It’s really up to buyers and mainly USD momentum to continue to drive the current buyer move. The Fed minutes are due out today at 04:00 am AEST, and they could play a role in the current short-term USD pulse. Good trading.
by Eightcap