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Cable in new lows for the yearCable or GBP/USD did not finish last week well and has started this week by seeing another dive lower. Taking a look at a weekly chart I can see the following information – we are in new lows for the year and about to hit the 1.2675 September 2021 low. Is this likely to hold? It is possible – the weekly RSI is low (but not showing sign of divergence currently) but the DMI is giving a confirmed sell signal, so for now would probably just go with it but tighten up stops on short positions as that RSI is on the low side. Second observation is the 200-week ma at 1.3106, is in close proximity to the 1.3160 6th December low and 1.3167 4th April high. Conclusion – the market stays negative below 1.3167 due to the convergence of resistance here. Third observation - Below the 1.2675 low we have the 61.8% retracement at approximately 1.25, which offers our near-term target and then 1.2030/78.6% retracement (retracements are from the 2020-2021 move). The 1.2075 mid-May low is located in this vicinity and 1.20 is likely to be a psychological support and we will make this convergence of support our short to medium term target. Fourth observation – the accelerated down channel that the market is currently contained in suggests that downside target could be achieved by late June – i.e., about 6 weeks. What do these observations add up to? A trading strategy! Somewhere to put your stops, add to the trade and take profits. Want to learn more about charts? Take a look at the Home Study course from the STA: - www.technicalanalysts.com Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Short
by The_STA
USDCAD riseThe pair has continued to rise in the directional bias I have (upward). I'm still expecting price to rise toward 1.28700 and currently holding 2 Trades both in profit with zero risk (SL1 @ +35pips, SL2 @ BE)... I'm deciding how to manage my 2md open entry however so far I'm comfortable. I'm currently waiting for a possible entry to continue according to my Executable entries in my trade plan so I'll be waiting patiently. With CAD news this Wed I definitely do feel confident my TPs will be hit this week, either way all shall be managed strictly according to plan (always stick to the trade plan)
Long
by Serene_Quantum
Don’t shoot the messenger!While there has been much commentary about the US Dollar Index hitting 100.00, we note two things from a technical perspective – the first is a shooting star pattern on the candlestick charts and the second is that the daily RSI has yet to confirm the recent high. This happens when price makes a new high, but the oscillator does not – it is otherwise known as bearish divergence. It generally denotes a loss of upside momentum. The shooting star however is a bit more serious this is a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that typically occurs at the top of uptrends. I would suggest tightening the stops in this one as I suspect that we are going to see some profit taking…. A shooting star is created when the open, low, and close are roughly the same price. Also, there is a long upper shadow, generally defined as at least twice the length of the real body. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
ICEUS:DX1!
by The_STA
EURUSD monthly triangleSince the last 20 years a huge triangle built on the EURUSD. We are on the edge of this triangle. A break higher than the top of the range (1.16500) will follow with the weakest dollar we've seen in a very long time and a massive bull trend. A break below the bottom of the range (1.08000) will follow with a stronger dollar and a much weaker euro. At the moment fundamentals are in favor of continuation of bull trend pushed by huge amount of money printing dropping the Dollars value. It seems for the moment the Dollar lost safe haven status.
Long
by Exactus
XAUUSD @ Crispy Potato28/03/22 COMBINED FORECAST FOR WEEK 5 MARCH 2022 = BULL DAYS OF FEB WEEK 4 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = BULL This week opened fairly neutral and calm. Monday and Tuesday candle bodies were contained within Friday's body. Wednesday's candle matched Friday's body in the opposite Bull form. Thursday is a slight breakout with Friday producing a doji. Looking at volume the week had an alignment in the decline from the week before. Thursday and Friday saw an uplift in volume. The previous trend support line remains broken and it may result in the support line becoming a resistance line, the probability exists. The OBV is trending slightly upward. Going with just the evidence, it suggests the higher probability is bull for next week. The OBV is slightly up, the support line must be hit to chance to become a resistance line and a slight change to volume intensity. WEEKS OF MARCH WEEK 4 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = NO ASSESSMENT = NEUTRAL PROBABILITY FOR NEXT WEEK = BULL This week produced a Bull candle inside the previous week's candle, it has formed an Inside Bar. This fits appropriately as the chart is trying to decide what direction to head in. Given the major pin bar and the stock mostly Bullish, the probability of higher prices remains. Volume is dropping off and the pin can mark the end of further price rises. There is plenty of room for many directions. Path of least resistance says to go, Bull, because other than a few minor signals there is nothing calling out a Bear move.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by eatmycrispypotato
EURUSD @ Crispy Potato27 March 2022 FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 WAS = IN DIFFERENT THE COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH WEEK 5 OF 2022 IS = BEAR DAYS WEEK 4 OF MARCH 2022 FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE THE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR This week's volume was decent but very consistent across the week. The candle was Bear on Monday mostly body but some tails. Tuesday Bull with tails to the south, same as Wednesday but Bear. Thursday again similar bear candle but this time it is contained in the prior day's trade. Friday finished a falling star. These candles do look to forecast a bigger drop is forming. The probability goes to the Bears The OBV is trending down. WEEK WEEK 4 OF MARCH 2022 FORECAST WAS = BULL = INACCURATE THE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 5 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR The volume this week shrank again this time around 30%. The candle was Bear. It is now an "inside bar" The OBV is very bear orientated. A third week ago is the only reason I would give the Bulls a go but the candle this week lets that probability down. This week I see a higher probability for the Bears
Short
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDUSD @ Crispy Potato27/03/22 THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = DIVIDED ASSESSMENT DAYS PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BEAR Monday produced a doji and continued its rally from last week. Tuesday was the largest candle, mostly body some tail on the bottom, and almost none on the top. Wednesday - Friday the candles all Bull but gradually decreased in body size and tails beginning to increase. By Friday we were back on a doji. The volume would be considered average given recent volumes. It increased through to Wednesday and began to slightly turn down by Friday. The OBV is trending Bull. Ther is a resistant point coming up at the $75 mark. This current rally has a steep angle, the candle sizing is waning. A correction seems probable this week. WEEK PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL This week was a solid Bull candle, mostly body small tails on either side. Indicate little resistance to Bears and next to none for Bull. There is an oversold factor that will begin to play its rolls soon, it will be displayed with tails to the top. As this week approaches the resistance line, it also approaches a support line. This week looks Bull but the resistance can not be ignored. Based on the path of least resistance this week looks like Bull.
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDJPY @ Crispy Potato27/03/22 THE FORECAST FOR WEEK 5 MARCH 2022 IS = BULL DAYS PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 5 MARCH = UNDECIDED This week opened calm. Monday produced a small doji Bull. This is leading on from the three last days, all precise Bull candles almost no tails, convincing momentum. Tuesday is the largest candle of the week, it is a Bull candle no tails. It is bigger than last week. Wednesday is about half size with small tails. Thursday increased candle body again 3/4 of Tuesday, xs tails. Friday produced a Bear hammer, small and contained inside Thursday candle. Top did not break high, in fact, it is almost identical tail and close/open point. Volume was largest on Friday. This indicates oversold is forming, but given the momentum of the Bull run we have a higher probability of a retracement only. This week has a higher probability of many options. WEEK PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 5 MARCH = BULL The Bull candle this week is making the rally angle unsustainable. The volume is declining but is decent. The candle has only x small tails on either end, this indicates very little resistance for Bears. It is probable this week will have a decent tail. A north-facing tail would indicate oversold with Bears having greater influence. A south-facing tail would indicate the Bulls are going to give a few more weeks of effort before letting the Bears take over. Higher probability for Bull .
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
EURUSD @ Crispy PotatoFORECAST FOR WEEK 4 MARCH 2022 IS = IN DIFFERENT COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (10/3/22-So far this assessment is incorrect) DAYS WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BEAR On week 3 Monday produced a small bull candle, and again on Tuesday. Wednesday increased the volume and the candle body but Thursday and Fridays candles stalled the retracement, no sooner it began. The dropping volume supporting the end of the weak Bull rally. Thursday did close above the previous week's last high point back on 10 March. Fridays candle returned it to below that high. The larger trend is Bear, the OBV fell sharply over the last couple of weeks. The retracement is weak and it is probable the Bear trend will reform this week. WEEK WEEK 3 OF MARCH FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 4 MARCH = BULL This week produced the third candle that forms a pattern, this pattern has produced reversals, with good consistency. There is the support that this pattern can become a reversal because it is in the right location of a trend support line. The longer term week trend has been bear, these last few weeks have a steep Bear angle. The volume is lower this week. The OBV is Bear, its lastest angle is steep. A reversal or at least a steeper retracement is possible because steep angles tend to have a retracement that can be traded.
by eatmycrispypotato