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AUDJPY @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = BULL (Based on alignment with Day and Week) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (But this is based on the Day and Week being in alignment, as well as the week having 4 strong bull candles) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL Days during this week were volatile. These days sit inside a range ongoing since December. Friday's candle offers insight into the direction of the trend. This solid and larger body bull candle has formed at a key point It is a strong candle at the top of this range. Thursday candle supports a bull move by rejecting the bears. Volume on Thursday is significant but it is a knee-jerk reaction from the war event that has commenced. The OBV daily chart is in divergence with the candles. This may play an important role and may result in this Friday bull candle being a fizzle.- Overall there appears to be a higher probability of a BULL week than a BEAR week. WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = NO CALL MADE = ACCURACY N/A PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL This week was again bull, it is the 4th bull candle. Volume is increasing, this supports the notion of higher prices ahead. The OBV has also responded but I take note that the recent low does diverge from the candle low respectively. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = INACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL (But this is based on the Day and Week being in alignment, as well as the week having 4 strong bull candles) This month retaliates to January. A definite struggle of both sides to take control, neither is winning. This price point has not been tested like this previous, instead, any direction change was swiftly counteracted. This is a tug-of-war, which is timely as the Russian war has started. This candle was bull with little to no tails. Volume has increased from January. The OBV gives away little of the chart's intentions.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
AUDUSD @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = 50/50 (based on Day and Week divergence) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (based on Week and Month alignment) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = INACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR This chart is trending sideways since Dec 2021. This week on this Wednesday a small shooting star formed, it is near the top of the sideways trend. On Thursday the volume increased significantly, the candle size was respectable for this chart. Thursday candle had a bottom tail, also of decent size. Friday's candle match Thursday indicates Bull can match Bear moves. Given the candles are near the top of the range there is a good probability for it to now head toward the bottom. Note: there is a possibility, due to the war, the AUD market could be a safe haven for investors. Borders are now open, tourism is now operable it looks like a good place to invest. A slight hiccup, there are floods on the southeast, this may counteract investment possibilities WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BULL = ACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL 4TH consistent Bull candle, matched with increasing volume. This indicates decent Bull influence that is resilient to Bear influence. This is a strong Bull position, it will be needed to break the $72 mark. The OBV supports this direction. Note the $70 is a tried and tested support level, 4 weeks ago tested this for the third time and bounced. The probability for a Bulls to rally is high. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = INACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL This chart hovers at a tested support level of $72. the trend has stalled at this price point now for 3 consecutive months. Indications are the bears have lost influence. The volume of Feb has increased from January, this indicates buying pressure is on the rise. The OBV doesn't give away much but this is okay. Given the slowing momentum of the bear trend and the potential for Australia to be considered a safe place to invest, it is probable March will finish as a Bull candle. One caveat is the floods.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
EURUSD @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = BEAR (based on the alignment of week and day) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BULL (based on month assessment, noting the divergence of the day and week charts)) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR This daily chart is essentially tracking sideways. Recently that range has increased in magnitude. The week opened with its slow but steady continuation downward. Thursday it significantly increased the candle body and bottom tail, along with significant volume. Friday formed an inside bar containing most of its body within Thursday's body. Volume is also significant but around 30% reduction in size. These recent large moves are still contained with the sideway motion of this chart. A close below 1.11 is needed, as well as a close above 1.14. We are nearer to 1.11. Given the larger downtrend, it is probable this move with greatly test the 1.11. Note: OBV though trending south, I sense it has the feel of a change in direction. If we compare the candle highs and the OBV highs, the last OBV is higher.....could this be reversal forming? WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR This week, the candle formed a spinning top. The volume increased from last week, coupled with the OBV trending bear this is a convincing downtrend. The probability for this week says bears will hold the dominant influence. The previous 4th week ago, failed to develop the engulfing candle into a bull run. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = INACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BULL The body is contained inside January's body. Volume was up from the previous month. OBV is not really identifying a great deal. There are three low points Jan2017, March2020, and these last two months. These represent a trending support line. March has the possibility of bouncing or protruding. Given the highs are also lower, I see a compressing range. I expect this to continue, this would mean March would have a higher probability to be BULL.
Long
by eatmycrispypotato
GBPUSD @ Crispy Potato26/02/22 FORECAST FOR WEEK 1 MARCH 2022 IS = 50/50 (Based on day and week misalignment) COMBINED FORECAST FOR MARCH 2022 = BEAR (Based on week and month alignment) DAYS WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE PROBABILITY OF DAYS FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BULL The week opened inside the mini sideways range. Thursday bombed with an exceptional candle, large bear body, mini top tail and large bottom tail (approx 45% of body) Note no major signal on Day chart to indicate slide. Volume on Thursday is significant. Friday was bull candle, volume also sizeable but lower than Thursday. Note Thursday close and Friday tail (near open) did not break the support line. The OBV has changed direction and is now trending upward, this is an overall divergence from the candle trend. WEEK WEEK 4 OF FEB FORECAST WAS = BEAR = ACCURATE PROBABILITY FOR WEEK 1 MARCH = BEAR A very bear candle, large body, and tails at each end (top unremarkable bottom descent approx 65% of body) Volume of week sellers and quite decent, but also constant with previous 4 weeks. The overall trend is bearish and this candle has a high probability of giving bears the momentum to continue south. The OBV is in fair alignment with the support, ever so slightly trending south. Given this support has been upheld it is probable it will bounce off it and head bull candles into the current sideways ranging motion. It will need to pass the 1.31 price line. MONTH FORECAST IN JAN FOR FEB = BEAR = ACCURATE FORECAST IN FEB FOR MARCH = BEAR GBPUSD is in trend sideways range, it is a sizeable range. Current the trend has turned from its high of 1.41 and now trending toward the 1.21 range. The bear candles for Jan and Feb support the bear continuation. Volume for Feb is higher than Jan, it supports a bear continuation. The OBV is in alignment with the candles.
Short
by eatmycrispypotato
Interesting Historical CyclesThe Dollar shows clear correlation between the different presidents and their white house policies. Interesting. Funny that it seems Democrats experience a rising dollar while Republicans have the dollar go down. I wonder if there is a lagging effect though cause we know inflation takes a year or two to really appear. I think it is safe to assume the Biden is Obama 2.0 except the environment is now changed. The dollar should still go up though because Biden values the Dollar and America's hegemony over the stock market and his rich buddies.
INDEX:DXYLong
by MonetaryRebel
USD/CAD Bearish Continues. USD/CAD got rejected at the 1.2800 psychological level, which also happens to fall below the 200-day SMA on Jan 6, these technical levels kickstart the pair bearish phase. The price fell by almost 200point before hitting another Quasimodo support zone at 1.2630, which creates a ripple in the price and gives a chance for the buyers to push the up to 1.2700 that falls below the 50.0% fib correction zone. A short position is good after another correcting hit the 21 or 50 days SMAs.
Short
by Adefxc