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GBPAUD: Bullish fractal.GBPAUD is consolidating after the 1.9150 bottom. Levels to watch: - The Resistance is at 1.9750 and the Support at 1.9150. - The MA50 on the 4H chart rejected the first upside attempt and the price is now attempting the second one. - The MA200 may provide support near the 1.91500 level. - The RSI is repeating a sequence previously formed after a bottom. This strengthens the bullish case. - The MACD has turned bullish after the 1.9150 low. Projection: - Based on the bottoming sequences on the 4H RSI and MACD, it seems like GBPAUD ahs hit a local low and once a candle fully closes above the 4H MA50, it may repeat a 2.50% rise. If the Support breaks though it should seek contact with the Higher Low trend line. If you like this idea give us a like, follow and share your thoughts in the comments section below. Remember to stay tuned for future technical analysis , news, updates, and more from PrimeXBT!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3931771
EURUSD: Outlook ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls.This is a break down analysis of EURUSD ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls. Fundamental Analysis: - The U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for January have a forecast of 160K, higher than the 145K number of the previous month. - Based on the last 12 Nonfarm Payrolls reports, EURUSD has a 100% probability to go higher on the 4H chart if the Actual number is lower than the Forecast. Similarly on the 12H timeframe if the Actual reading is higher (>) that the Forecast there is a 66.7% chance to go lower, while for the opposite reading (Actual < Forecast) there is a 80% to go higher. The projection on a 2 day timeframe is also 66.7% probability to go lower if the Actual < Forecast. - Also keep in mind that EURUSD is in the aftermath of the effects by the higher than expected German Trade Balance. This gives a 66.7% probability for EURUSD to rise on the short term (4H and 12H). Technical Analysis: - The pattern is still a Channel Down since the December 31, 2019 High. - The Resistance levels are at 1.11750 and 1.12400 while the Support at 1.09800 and 1.08800. - Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200) formed on the 4H chart. - The RSI is bearish on the September Support. The above mix indicates that EURUSD is bearish both fundamentally and technically on the long term and as the 1.09800 Support 1 broke, targets the 1.08800 Support 2. On the short term though, with the German data supporting an up move and if the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report lower than expected numbers, we may see a brief spike, which would make an ideal Lower High on the Channel Down technically and can be seen as the longer term sell opportunity. If however the 1.094 level breaks first, then the Channel Down is invalidated and we will most likely see the 1.08800 Support 2 sooner than expected. If you like this idea give us a like, follow and share your thoughts in the comments section below. Remember to stay tuned for future technical analysis , news, updates, and more from PrimeXBT!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3931771
USDCAD More upside to come.USDCAD is on an uptrend since forming a support at 1.29500. Levels to watch: - The rebound on the support has formed a channel up similar to another two occasions. - The price just hit the MA50 and is consolidating. - The long term pattern is a bearish megaphone. - The bearish megaphone's lower highs are made when the price crosses the MA200. This is a top confirmation. Projection: - With the MACD still on a bullish trend, we expect the price to continue rising inside the channel up until it crosses the MA200 and makes a lower high on the megaphone. If you like this idea give us a like, follow and share your thoughts in the comments section below. Remember to stay tuned for future technical analysis , news, updates, and more from PrimeXBT!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3931771
2
EURUSD Buy structure to the 4H MA50.The price rebounded on the 1.10370 Support. Since the pattern is a Channel Down (clear Lower Highs and Lower Lows) today's low is most likely the Lower Low of the structure. Levels to watch: - The 4H MA50 has been a Resistance since January 17. - The RSI hit 29.85 which has been a Support since November 11. - The 4h MA200 has been a pivot in recent months (Support on uptrend, Resistance on downtrend). Projection: - The price rebounds on the current Lower Low and Support until at least 1.10900. The 4H MA50 and MA200 form a Resistance Zone then, Lower High is formed and sellers take action again. If you like this idea give us a like, follow and share your thoughts in the comments section below. Remember to stay tuned for future technical analysis , news, updates, and more from PrimeXBT!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3931771
3
Still long GOLD, since 2009 [DETAILED]Gold is still a preferred long term asset for wealthy individuals & governments. I've been long since I got into financial markets back in 2008. A wealthy client of mine (whom I did sports recovery on from a Pro Baseball career) suggested I buy gold back then. I had no idea about it, I just bought it & held on. I sold it around 2011 to start another business & have continued to be an investor/trader since. Currently awaiting to continue buying pullbacks to the (long term) green line. This is a wealth play that I expect to simply hold long term. I BUY PHYSICAL GOLD & track the price value with the chart. You must understand market economics & the historical valuation of GOLD to understand why I approach it this way. GOLD IS NOT A "SAVE THE DAY" ASSET. It is simply a part of a long term asset building strategy to add to a balanced portfolio.
AMEX:GLDLong
by BillionaireTomBoi
EURAUDConclusión: Después de la explosión, se está acomulando aún así durante esa acomulación podemos ver como está cerca de retestear el P3 de la tendéncia alcista, cosa que podría hacer; aunque teniendo en cuenta que se nos ha creado un HCH invertido que está siendo retesteado, si nos confirma ese retesteo puede que ya suba directo, de todas maneras, esperaremos un poco más para ver si tanto fibo como la tendencia deciden retestear el 61% para así tener una mejor entrada pero en definitiva, va a SUBIR, aunque podría bajar para subir. The currency can rise now because we have a HCH or we can wait for a better entry in 61% of fibo
Long
by BlazeGP
Currency pairs to watch at beginning of the Forex-WeekHi Traders For the start of the week I would watch USDJPY. The region around 109 did act as resistance a couple of times ago (The picture shows just 1 resistance but when you go back in time, you will see turned short from there a couple of times). The last 8 houers before the weekend looked like this will be the same this time. As the Hitman indicator did not show a Bear-Sign I would wait for it to come. This will be my final confirmation to go short.
Short
by TheHitman
2
The short term market consensus for GBP/USD have changeThe short term market consensus for GBP/USD have change to Bearish We will execute a sell signal with the following data: Global Entry Signal: Sell @1.29915 Global Trailing Stop Loss: @ 1.32887 Global Target Profit: 0.76419 Trading is risky There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and Forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Short
by globalfinancialengineering
The Looney Continues to Bargain in FlatThe technical picture on the USD/CAD currency pair is still ambiguous. A temporary low is formed at 1.3115 in USD/CAD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.3205 holds. A clear break below 1.3115 (38,2% Fibo retracement on the daily chart) will resume the decline from 1.3327 and target 1.3042 key support. Sustainable move there will bring larger bearish implication. On the upside, above 1.3205 (Friday high) minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for re-test of 1.3327 resistance instead. Our Buy trading is still active. Do you trade that pair and how?
by ForexTrendline
1
Strong Breakout - New Trend High in EUR/JPY Points HigherStrong bullish move for EUR/JPY as it decisively breaks out to a new trend high, and clearly moves above the 34-week exponential moving average (ema) (orange line on weekly chart below). The 34-week ema has acted as resistance since approximately September 2018. In addition, the internal downtrend line has clearly been broken, another bullish sign. The odds now favor a continuation of the uptrend begun off the September swing low of $115.86. EUR/JPY Weekly Chart The EUR/JPY has already exceeded the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $122.45, of the full downtrend off the January 2018 high. Higher target zones as seen on the chart include approximately: 1. 123.69 – 124.90 (38.2% retracement + several other Fibonacci levels, + previous support from 2018) 2. 126.44 – 126.50 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement + several other Fibonacci levels, + previous support from 2018 swing low) 3. 129.24 – 129.45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement + several other Fibonacci levels, + swing low support from first quarter 2018) Next, watch for intraday retracements and subsequent buy setups for entries to take advantage of the developing larger bullish trend. EUR/JPY Daily Chart
Long
by BrucePowersCMT
RENMINBI AS A TRADE WAR PROXY & DOLLAR SHORTAGE(for macro nerds)USD/CNY: Two detailed bullet points ; Series on Currencies(feedback's always welcomed) - 7th of December 2019 First of all, this chart is simply a guide on how to analyse Dollar:Renminbi as a trade war proxy. As there are many economic variations and possible outcomes for 2020 at this point in time, I will not give recommendations for this chart. These are my subjective technicals and I will not analyse them, so don't follow them blindly. More importantly, let's take a look at some of the macro and fundamental perspectives. 1. 7 is a key level for the USD/CNY. Somehow the cross in August coincided with the inversion in yield curves, and the height of the trade war fears. Data backing up the cross at 7 is the decrease in Chinese holdings of treasuries (Ref #1), YoY down -4.27% . This indicates, that China is attempting to create a stronger dollar environment that corresponds with higher treasury yields, in order to alleviate some of the trade war tariff pains(higher yields=stronger $ ). Of course, treasuries are a global market, and China isn't able to completely influence the dollar At the stage with all the noise, it's very hard to exactly know what the trade war outcome will be, so I've given some of the scenarios on the chart. Furthermore, as FED cut rates, so did the PBoC (despite higher CPI , pork's here to blame) . This was their way of signalling that they're ready to devalue the yuan in case the trade war continues (Ref #2). The simplest way to read the Dollar/Yuan chart is with a dummy variable approach: If USDCNY<7= higher probability of a trade deal success and vice versa. 2. The DXY and USDSEK overlays combined with the 5-year lows in some of the emerging markets currencies(REF #5), indicating a global dollar shortage . These fears were somewhat dealt with as we had (Ref #3) three rate cuts this year and the start of QE:4, after the the repo market frenzy in August and September . Going into 2020, despite the FED being overly optimistic, I'm expecting that rates will further slide down to at least 1%. It all depends on how ambitious Trump is in terms of his trade war goals. The importance of USDSEK , simply is the fact that Sweden is such an open economy and the effect of these events mentioned above can serve as a way to cut all the trade news noise. A s expressed in the USDSEK chart, currently Swedish manufacturing numbers are well below 50, without the expected bounce for November(REF #6), despite the strong performance from equities . Along with other swedish economic data that's also performing poorly, without a doubt, this raises recession fears even further. To conclude this analysis on the Dollar:Renminbi, as mentioned in the intro- at this point there are many possible variations and many factors that could be analysed. I've already written a dozen posts on the trade war and the 2020 elections and it seems that it's impossible to give an easy and simple answer. One thing to expect for certain in 2020, is a rise in volatility . As the election cycle nears, there might be an increased pressure on Trump to get a deal done, so hopefully we'll get a more clear picture of the outcome of the trade war. Nevertheless, phase 1 is somewhat unimportant. Practically all the important negotiation points are pushed for phase 2 . Future may after all, seem interesting, but at the same time gloomy, and the show's just about to get started. This is it for Dollar:Yuan, feedback is always welcomed! -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! References & Disclosure: 1. Chinese Treasury holdings: ticdata.treasury.gov 2. PBoC Prime rates: tradingeconomics.com 3. FED Rates super cycle: 4. Treasury Yields: 5. Latin(emerging) markets currency index: www.bloomberg.com 6. Swedish Manufacturing data: tradingeconomics.com Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
AUDCHF: Medium and long trading plan.The pair is currently trading within a 1W Channel Up (RSI = 46.650, ADX = 20.166, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) since the August bottom on the 0.65400 Support. It is currently on the Higher Low trend line which technically is the optimal long entry towards the 0.69500 1W Resistance, which is our medium term target. Upon reaching that level, AUDCHF would have made a Higher High on the 1W Channel Up, crossed the 1W MA50, while also making contact with the long term bearish Lower High trend line of the 1M Channel Down that started with the September 2017 Top. If that line (red bold line) breaks then the long term bullish bias are restored and you can pursue the next Resistance levels of 0.72500 and 0.74000. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Long
by InvestingScope
2
Could positive momentum on USD/CNY continue? Risk overall continues to ebb and flow on US-China trade uncertainty and looks somewhat asymmetric, tilted to the downside, based on our view that the HK Bill if passed through the House of Reps could seriously complicate trade talks and the signing of Phase 1. Stock markets are on the rise, and the risk-on atmosphere is weighing on USD, JPY and gold. Last week the US dollar made its the best performance in nearly 3 months against the Chinese Yuan. USD/CNY is likely to hold below 7.05/04 in the near-term with a possible decline likely to be limited around 7.00-6.95. On other side, the technical indicators are constructive, and there appears to be near-term potential rally to the 7.06/08 resistance area (the highs since October's end). The dollar moved above its 20-day SMA for the first time since mid-October. Also on the 4-hour chart this SMA coincide to the middle line of the Bollinger Badns and the price broke above it. It may offer support now. You should take in mind also China PMIs data at the end of the week. Another decline could seriously impinge on the soft landing narrative markets have been forming over the past few weeks and draw a market-negative reaction.
by ForexTrendline
The short term market consensus for CAD/JPY have changeThe short term market consensus for CAD/JPY have change to Bullish We will execute a buy signal with the following data: Global Entry Signal: Buy @ 82.30 Global Trailing Stop Loss: @ 81.574 Global Target Profit: @ 84.478 Trading is risky There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and Forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Long
by globalfinancialengineering