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The short term market consensus for GBP/USD have changeThe short term market consensus for GBP/USD have change to Bearish We will execute a sell signal with the following data: Global Entry Signal: Sell @1.29915 Global Trailing Stop Loss: @ 1.32887 Global Target Profit: 0.76419 Trading is risky There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and Forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Short
by globalfinancialengineering
The Looney Continues to Bargain in FlatThe technical picture on the USD/CAD currency pair is still ambiguous. A temporary low is formed at 1.3115 in USD/CAD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.3205 holds. A clear break below 1.3115 (38,2% Fibo retracement on the daily chart) will resume the decline from 1.3327 and target 1.3042 key support. Sustainable move there will bring larger bearish implication. On the upside, above 1.3205 (Friday high) minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for re-test of 1.3327 resistance instead. Our Buy trading is still active. Do you trade that pair and how?
by ForexTrendline
1
Strong Breakout - New Trend High in EUR/JPY Points HigherStrong bullish move for EUR/JPY as it decisively breaks out to a new trend high, and clearly moves above the 34-week exponential moving average (ema) (orange line on weekly chart below). The 34-week ema has acted as resistance since approximately September 2018. In addition, the internal downtrend line has clearly been broken, another bullish sign. The odds now favor a continuation of the uptrend begun off the September swing low of $115.86. EUR/JPY Weekly Chart The EUR/JPY has already exceeded the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $122.45, of the full downtrend off the January 2018 high. Higher target zones as seen on the chart include approximately: 1. 123.69 – 124.90 (38.2% retracement + several other Fibonacci levels, + previous support from 2018) 2. 126.44 – 126.50 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement + several other Fibonacci levels, + previous support from 2018 swing low) 3. 129.24 – 129.45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement + several other Fibonacci levels, + swing low support from first quarter 2018) Next, watch for intraday retracements and subsequent buy setups for entries to take advantage of the developing larger bullish trend. EUR/JPY Daily Chart
Long
by BrucePowersCMT
RENMINBI AS A TRADE WAR PROXY & DOLLAR SHORTAGE(for macro nerds)USD/CNY: Two detailed bullet points ; Series on Currencies(feedback's always welcomed) - 7th of December 2019 First of all, this chart is simply a guide on how to analyse Dollar:Renminbi as a trade war proxy. As there are many economic variations and possible outcomes for 2020 at this point in time, I will not give recommendations for this chart. These are my subjective technicals and I will not analyse them, so don't follow them blindly. More importantly, let's take a look at some of the macro and fundamental perspectives. 1. 7 is a key level for the USD/CNY. Somehow the cross in August coincided with the inversion in yield curves, and the height of the trade war fears. Data backing up the cross at 7 is the decrease in Chinese holdings of treasuries (Ref #1), YoY down -4.27% . This indicates, that China is attempting to create a stronger dollar environment that corresponds with higher treasury yields, in order to alleviate some of the trade war tariff pains(higher yields=stronger $ ). Of course, treasuries are a global market, and China isn't able to completely influence the dollar At the stage with all the noise, it's very hard to exactly know what the trade war outcome will be, so I've given some of the scenarios on the chart. Furthermore, as FED cut rates, so did the PBoC (despite higher CPI , pork's here to blame) . This was their way of signalling that they're ready to devalue the yuan in case the trade war continues (Ref #2). The simplest way to read the Dollar/Yuan chart is with a dummy variable approach: If USDCNY<7= higher probability of a trade deal success and vice versa. 2. The DXY and USDSEK overlays combined with the 5-year lows in some of the emerging markets currencies(REF #5), indicating a global dollar shortage . These fears were somewhat dealt with as we had (Ref #3) three rate cuts this year and the start of QE:4, after the the repo market frenzy in August and September . Going into 2020, despite the FED being overly optimistic, I'm expecting that rates will further slide down to at least 1%. It all depends on how ambitious Trump is in terms of his trade war goals. The importance of USDSEK , simply is the fact that Sweden is such an open economy and the effect of these events mentioned above can serve as a way to cut all the trade news noise. A s expressed in the USDSEK chart, currently Swedish manufacturing numbers are well below 50, without the expected bounce for November(REF #6), despite the strong performance from equities . Along with other swedish economic data that's also performing poorly, without a doubt, this raises recession fears even further. To conclude this analysis on the Dollar:Renminbi, as mentioned in the intro- at this point there are many possible variations and many factors that could be analysed. I've already written a dozen posts on the trade war and the 2020 elections and it seems that it's impossible to give an easy and simple answer. One thing to expect for certain in 2020, is a rise in volatility . As the election cycle nears, there might be an increased pressure on Trump to get a deal done, so hopefully we'll get a more clear picture of the outcome of the trade war. Nevertheless, phase 1 is somewhat unimportant. Practically all the important negotiation points are pushed for phase 2 . Future may after all, seem interesting, but at the same time gloomy, and the show's just about to get started. This is it for Dollar:Yuan, feedback is always welcomed! -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! References & Disclosure: 1. Chinese Treasury holdings: ticdata.treasury.gov 2. PBoC Prime rates: tradingeconomics.com 3. FED Rates super cycle: 4. Treasury Yields: 5. Latin(emerging) markets currency index: www.bloomberg.com 6. Swedish Manufacturing data: tradingeconomics.com Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
AUDCHF: Medium and long trading plan.The pair is currently trading within a 1W Channel Up (RSI = 46.650, ADX = 20.166, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) since the August bottom on the 0.65400 Support. It is currently on the Higher Low trend line which technically is the optimal long entry towards the 0.69500 1W Resistance, which is our medium term target. Upon reaching that level, AUDCHF would have made a Higher High on the 1W Channel Up, crossed the 1W MA50, while also making contact with the long term bearish Lower High trend line of the 1M Channel Down that started with the September 2017 Top. If that line (red bold line) breaks then the long term bullish bias are restored and you can pursue the next Resistance levels of 0.72500 and 0.74000. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Long
by InvestingScope
2
Could positive momentum on USD/CNY continue? Risk overall continues to ebb and flow on US-China trade uncertainty and looks somewhat asymmetric, tilted to the downside, based on our view that the HK Bill if passed through the House of Reps could seriously complicate trade talks and the signing of Phase 1. Stock markets are on the rise, and the risk-on atmosphere is weighing on USD, JPY and gold. Last week the US dollar made its the best performance in nearly 3 months against the Chinese Yuan. USD/CNY is likely to hold below 7.05/04 in the near-term with a possible decline likely to be limited around 7.00-6.95. On other side, the technical indicators are constructive, and there appears to be near-term potential rally to the 7.06/08 resistance area (the highs since October's end). The dollar moved above its 20-day SMA for the first time since mid-October. Also on the 4-hour chart this SMA coincide to the middle line of the Bollinger Badns and the price broke above it. It may offer support now. You should take in mind also China PMIs data at the end of the week. Another decline could seriously impinge on the soft landing narrative markets have been forming over the past few weeks and draw a market-negative reaction.
by ForexTrendline
The short term market consensus for CAD/JPY have changeThe short term market consensus for CAD/JPY have change to Bullish We will execute a buy signal with the following data: Global Entry Signal: Buy @ 82.30 Global Trailing Stop Loss: @ 81.574 Global Target Profit: @ 84.478 Trading is risky There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and Forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
Long
by globalfinancialengineering
EURUSD New update on the Sell SignalI am doing an update on the previous EURUSD sell signal slightly moving my Target higher at 1.08300. So far both the long term (1D chart) and short term (4H chart) indicators and patterns have provided accurate entries as seen by the following ideas: At the moment the new Channel Down is on the consolidation phase around the 1D MA50 (blue line as seen on the chart). The Lower High on the 1W Channel Down is in, so technically the price should decline towards a new Lower Low. Based on the relative % drop from the Lower Highs, the next Low is estimated at 1.08300.
Short
by TradingShot
2
NZDCAD: Long term Buy opportunity.The pair is on a strong 1D Channel Up (RSI = 61.239, ADX = 42.796) since the rebound on the 0.82450 Support. This support level has been holding since 2015 and we are expecting this rebound to be extended on a much longer time frame. If the 2016 sequence is replicated then, after a short rejection on the 1W MA50, the pair should reach the last 1W Resistance. This is essentially our Target Zone: 0.91750 - 0.92800. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Long
by InvestingScope
AudUsd Rate Pair - The Aussie Rate AudUsd Rate Pair - The Aussie Rate The Aussie Rate from my experience of watching and through observation on this Rate. Is that the full monthly chart cycle is a little incomplete from the top of the current monthly chart Range at 1.1039 towards the lower end at 0.0623. I can only justify that through many years of experience at using the Fibonacci Gauge Lengths will prove valid and by my own account through the monthly chart cycle phase price will continue onto A Lower Low end outcome towards 0.0623 Is at 80% percent inside bar re-tracement lower of the current monthly chart high cycle. As reference point this analysis is based only my expertise of using the Fibonacci Re-tracements Method. All strategies referred to by my-self incorporate the Fibonacci Extension Methodology so allowing for plenty of time whilst the Indexes are trending is very essential and will play out key towards finding the right outcome to the Currency Rates.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn5176330
Kiwi underperforms as investors bet that RBNZ will cut rates oveExpectations at time of writing, drawn from short-term rate futures, imply an 80% chance that the RBNZ cut of a -25 bps on Wednesday, with the rest of the 20% attributed to a hold. Although inflation has subsided, the softening employment situation and weak business confidence suggest that further easing is warranted, a decline in NZD and an improvement in the housing market may allow politicians to stay out this month. We believe that even if RBNZ leaves interest rates unchanged, the continuing uncertainty in the region should keep the bank dovish and the risk for NZD is downside. After that though, the currency’s direction will depend on the signals about future easing. If the RBNZ holds the interest rate, it can catch many people unprepared and this would probably be the most bullish scenario for the NZD pairs. In that case we can see NZD/USD to test 0.6400 resistance. If the interest rate is reduced (as expected), but still the bank refrain from being overly dovish, then it could print a minor rebound. With a dovish cut, we can see a break below $ 0.6320. Purely technically, NZD/USD has been trading in a downward price channel since early November on the four-hour chart. The channel model was formed on November 4. Earlier this morning, the NZD tested the 0.6365 resistance zone formed by the upper trend line of the bearish channel and the 200-day EMA on the four-hour chart, but stepped back. If this resistance area continues to hold, then intraday signals remain in favor of the bears and we can watch the trade continue within the downside channel before the decision tomorrow.
Short
by ForexTrendline
GBPTRY: Short opportunity within a Descending Triangle.The pair is comming off a rejection on the Lower High trend line of the 1M Descending Triangle (RSI = 60.943, MACD = 0.510, Highs/Lows = 0.000). Based on the previous Lower High made and the RSI it traded, we are expecting a stronger decline towards the previous low. Our sell Target Zone is 6.87000 - 7.00000. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
Short
by InvestingScope
2