AUDCHFThis is kind of a tricky trade. I am waiting to see if AUDCHF breaks the top trend line if not what i expect will happen is it will fall to the bottom trend line and break it.
Currencytrading
Breakout from rectangle patternAfter Draghi's comments, could EUR/GBP be breaking out of its rectangle pattern?
Swing tradeThe asset will have hit the 100 MA so in the short-term will most likely fall, or it could actually break 100 MA, which will make it a definite buy, but till then it will mostly fall then reach support and then rise to hit trendline- swing trade.
Rising wedge- it's almost go time!Look for quick profits here, we have a rising wedge on the hourly chart, this isn't likely to be a HUGE move but I think it'll be worth our time. Not to mention I like NZD weakness set ups on a few other pairs, namely NZDJPY and GBPNZD.
Pretty simple, we have two weekly pivots that haven't been touched below with a monthly pivot anticipated around .7020 area.
Look for a move of 60-80 pips here once the rising wedge breaks and price starts to print below the pattern.
When this break, I'll put stops above the highs, target the 1st weekly (soon to come monthly as well) pivot and let a small portion run to the second pivot if price is cooperating.
A quick 100 pips (HIGH PROBABILITY SET UP!)This may look like just a simple channel/trend line break out, which it is (think "no country for old men").
What makes this a great high probability set ups is the line up of multiple missed weekly pivot points.
Two ways to trade this:
1. short trend line break, have 70-80 pip stops above recent highs and target weekly pivot at 1.7520.
2. OR you can trade it the same way with an adjustment to the stop, only staying in the trend if it can stay below the trend line (limits draw down but is more aggressive stop)
Either way it's a great set up and should be good for 100 pips.
US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX FORECASTUS DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX FORECAST Opened short. Possible reverse high risk short. Or waiting for LONG when brake Purple line.
Huge possibility either direction This pair is at a crossroads, there's been Euro weakness as well as Aud weakness which makes this tricky but the set up is too good to pass over.
Above 1.4180 this gets slightly bullish but the real confirmation is above the larger trend line (falling wedge on daily chart). There's hundreds of pips if those highs don't hold.
Below trend lines and in the circles labeled 1, 2 and 3 are great sell off points. The targets get larger each time, I'll be short and I'll take profit each time a level breaks and it reaches a new trend line/support zone.
Here it is, good luck trading it either way, I think there's plenty of potential up or down.
This might be the only long term game in town- 300-500I posted two charts because I wanted to show how the the bigger picture is playing out and how to managed the more near term trades/entries.
As you can see on the chart below, the weekly chart has a 5 year old trend line that has broken, the market closed and opened above that trend line and has pulled back to retest.
The chart above shows a more near term picture of that trend line retest on the 4h chart and areas to start buying into.
We like scaling into this trade around current market price and buying into more dips if that happens.
Upside targets at this point are 1.1300 and 1.1400.
More updates to come...
Compression of volatility leads to hypervolatilityOver the next 48 hours, we may see large moves in FX.
At present we have a compression of volatility (see currency strength chart).
This suggests that volatility will increase over the next day or so.
The trade here is:
Trade in the direction of price action and hold the trade.
A trend following strategy will work better than a mean reversion approach.
HEAD AND SHOULDERS MAY FORMThe movement made so far, I called 3 days ago which was the strong bearish movement retracing of the .618 resistance. I believe it will bounce of 0.5 fib support to form a head and shoulders pattern eventually creating a bullish movement till daily resistance. I am now waiting to go long.
Small head and shoulders- 100-150 pipsThis one isn't the most popular pair to trade. It gave a nice quick 35 pips last night on THIS TRADE CALL and I think we could see another good push down to the weekly pivot.
We have a possible head and shoulders forming, first off was the rising wedge now it's time for the right shoulder to form. One way or another I want to trade this to the weekly pivot, a head and shoulders would be the easiest most obvious set up.
Entry details:
(ideally) enter short at 87.70
Stop above 88.20
Target 86.50
Oh what a range, what a beautiful range!Sorry for the "Mad Max" reference, such a great movie!
AUDUSD has one of the best ranges I've seen yet! it's just shy of 100 pips, if you're a range trader than feel free to take advantage on buying lows and selling highs of this 100 pip range, keep stops tight because when this breaks out it's going to be probably with some good momentum.
Once the range breaks, I'm looking for at least 100 pips either direction.
A break above 7700, I'm targeting at least 7800
A break below 7600, I'm targeting at least 7500
It's really that simple, trade the range until it break, then trade the h'word out of the break!
EUR/USD; Short? or Long?The EUR/USD seems to be in a bit of a pickle, there was a false breakout represented by the ABCD shape, but there seems to be a reason behind that as the Coppock curve shows that it provided past support for that decline, so I would ignore the false breakout. But, the currency pair has reached a crucial resistance point, this is also represented by the 100 EMA, providing this resistance. Furthermore the 50 EMA is providing the support, so I would short just in till it has stalled in the green region, then sell. But, if a upward breakout occurs then I would sell my short position and go for the buy.
220 pips here- but it's going to be trickyThere's some great profit potential here, however it's going to be a very tricky set up to take. Let me explain.
The gbpcad looks to be hunting out the upper missed monthly pivot at 1.6680. IF and only IF it hits that upper lever FIRST will I take the trade.
If 1.6680 is hit in the next few hours, I'll sell/short at that level targeting 1.6460. It's that simple.
However if this pairs dips down to 1.6500 area first (before hitting 1.6680) it's a no trade for me. I hope that makes sense.
ONE BIG IMPORTANT DETAIL:
There's potentially super volatile UK news coming Monday night/Tuesday morning early, that could mess up this whole thing. Keep the news in mind.
