Currencytrading
A quick 100 pips (HIGH PROBABILITY SET UP!)This may look like just a simple channel/trend line break out, which it is (think "no country for old men").
What makes this a great high probability set ups is the line up of multiple missed weekly pivot points.
Two ways to trade this:
1. short trend line break, have 70-80 pip stops above recent highs and target weekly pivot at 1.7520.
2. OR you can trade it the same way with an adjustment to the stop, only staying in the trend if it can stay below the trend line (limits draw down but is more aggressive stop)
Either way it's a great set up and should be good for 100 pips.
Huge possibility either direction This pair is at a crossroads, there's been Euro weakness as well as Aud weakness which makes this tricky but the set up is too good to pass over.
Above 1.4180 this gets slightly bullish but the real confirmation is above the larger trend line (falling wedge on daily chart). There's hundreds of pips if those highs don't hold.
Below trend lines and in the circles labeled 1, 2 and 3 are great sell off points. The targets get larger each time, I'll be short and I'll take profit each time a level breaks and it reaches a new trend line/support zone.
Here it is, good luck trading it either way, I think there's plenty of potential up or down.
This might be the only long term game in town- 300-500I posted two charts because I wanted to show how the the bigger picture is playing out and how to managed the more near term trades/entries.
As you can see on the chart below, the weekly chart has a 5 year old trend line that has broken, the market closed and opened above that trend line and has pulled back to retest.
The chart above shows a more near term picture of that trend line retest on the 4h chart and areas to start buying into.
We like scaling into this trade around current market price and buying into more dips if that happens.
Upside targets at this point are 1.1300 and 1.1400.
More updates to come...
Compression of volatility leads to hypervolatilityOver the next 48 hours, we may see large moves in FX.
At present we have a compression of volatility (see currency strength chart).
This suggests that volatility will increase over the next day or so.
The trade here is:
Trade in the direction of price action and hold the trade.
A trend following strategy will work better than a mean reversion approach.
HEAD AND SHOULDERS MAY FORMThe movement made so far, I called 3 days ago which was the strong bearish movement retracing of the .618 resistance. I believe it will bounce of 0.5 fib support to form a head and shoulders pattern eventually creating a bullish movement till daily resistance. I am now waiting to go long.
Small head and shoulders- 100-150 pipsThis one isn't the most popular pair to trade. It gave a nice quick 35 pips last night on THIS TRADE CALL and I think we could see another good push down to the weekly pivot.
We have a possible head and shoulders forming, first off was the rising wedge now it's time for the right shoulder to form. One way or another I want to trade this to the weekly pivot, a head and shoulders would be the easiest most obvious set up.
Entry details:
(ideally) enter short at 87.70
Stop above 88.20
Target 86.50
Oh what a range, what a beautiful range!Sorry for the "Mad Max" reference, such a great movie!
AUDUSD has one of the best ranges I've seen yet! it's just shy of 100 pips, if you're a range trader than feel free to take advantage on buying lows and selling highs of this 100 pip range, keep stops tight because when this breaks out it's going to be probably with some good momentum.
Once the range breaks, I'm looking for at least 100 pips either direction.
A break above 7700, I'm targeting at least 7800
A break below 7600, I'm targeting at least 7500
It's really that simple, trade the range until it break, then trade the h'word out of the break!
EUR/USD; Short? or Long?The EUR/USD seems to be in a bit of a pickle, there was a false breakout represented by the ABCD shape, but there seems to be a reason behind that as the Coppock curve shows that it provided past support for that decline, so I would ignore the false breakout. But, the currency pair has reached a crucial resistance point, this is also represented by the 100 EMA, providing this resistance. Furthermore the 50 EMA is providing the support, so I would short just in till it has stalled in the green region, then sell. But, if a upward breakout occurs then I would sell my short position and go for the buy.
220 pips here- but it's going to be trickyThere's some great profit potential here, however it's going to be a very tricky set up to take. Let me explain.
The gbpcad looks to be hunting out the upper missed monthly pivot at 1.6680. IF and only IF it hits that upper lever FIRST will I take the trade.
If 1.6680 is hit in the next few hours, I'll sell/short at that level targeting 1.6460. It's that simple.
However if this pairs dips down to 1.6500 area first (before hitting 1.6680) it's a no trade for me. I hope that makes sense.
ONE BIG IMPORTANT DETAIL:
There's potentially super volatile UK news coming Monday night/Tuesday morning early, that could mess up this whole thing. Keep the news in mind.
Big level here, 200-300 pipsOn longer term time frames we can see that this is likely turning into an inverse head and shoulders, it's time to make that right shoulder, I want to sell that trend line break for the move into 7300 area which would make a good right shoulder.
The entry ideal situation is this:
sell trend line break
stops above the highs
target 1st missed weekly pivot/7300 area in extension
The Rising Wedge Is BACK! (200 pip target)Last week I talked about this rising wedge, it flexed it's muscles and we have to expand the wedge a bit, but it's all still very much intact and I'm super anxious to get into this trade short.
Specifically for EURUSD there's ECB news on Thursday and Trump on Friday, sooooo.... I'm looking for end of week to trade this pattern.
Ideally I'd like to see:
ENTRY: wedge break out, small retest and sell that
STOP: above highs
TARGET: 1.0350 area
Talk about a long shot- 200 pips worth!OK so Trump, or whoever, caused the markets to go HOG wild this morning, which is cool! We had some nice pips on EURUSD and the first target was hit so that's fine.
This might seem like a long shot, and maybe it is, but we could see the start of a larger pattern forming here.
Here's what I'm looking for:
The completion of a rising wedge, it's dependent on STAYING BELOW 1.0650! If that level breaks then I'm not going to completely reassess.
ENTRY: Short rising wedge break out
STOPS: above 1.0650
TARGET: 1.0350 and 1.0175 (and parity of course)