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WTICOUSD - Oil Price Analysis and 2022 ForecastOil coming into a key area at the bottom of an 18-month structure. Typically I would wait for this to fully correct (below the 18-month structure) and then make a decision on how to trade it. But I think the most glaring thing about oil, is the fact that the all time high was set in July 2008. Lots more money out there these days; lot more drivers too. Economy is showing signs of inflation everywhere. I think it is a mistake to think this thing cannot ring the ATHs as early as Summer 2020. For now we watch and wait to see how it behaves in what has been a somewhat persistent range. From a trading / exposure perspective - I have been long in oil since September of this year. We will continue to track oil closely. God Bless
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by ChiefMacro
1
WTI CRUDE OIL (USOIL) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORTWell today i have some bad and good news. Which one would you want to hear first? I guess let's start with thee crappy news! I somehow missed a 500+pip bearish move on oil. Like who does that? Anyway, it is not totally a bad thing. Because the good news is that it has created some nice structure in the market on which we can base future trades. My bias on oil is now bearish. Yeah i might seem late but trust me i know what i am doing (even though my profile says i don't). Plus history repeats itself. So let me share how i might possibly enter this trade. Obviously, i prefer to enter on a breakout of the corrective pattern, but it might be good on the price but bad on the timing. Perfect entries do not exist lol. You have to find what suits you. Without further ado, here are the numbers; ENTRY: 60 STOP LOSS: 63 TAKE PROFIT :57
TVC:USOILShort
by munyaelliott
1
Preparing to ShortCL1! June2018 CLM as at Apr 29 Well, like most oil commentators, everyone has been expecting the break, either up or down, that just hasn't materialised. From my last post of Apr 22 (Chart of Apr 20), all we can see is sideways drift, so I have switched into candles to get (some) better perspective. In my last post, I commented I expected volume to ease, which It has. I notice recent bars all have either upper or lower pins. This is indecision. There was a similar price area congestion pattern back in Jun/Sep 2009, but I do not believe this is related. Immediate overhead resistance is $68.80-69.00. Previously mentioned Resistance sits at $69.70 then $71.30 then $73.75 and probably $70, $71, $72 and $73 to fully box the Quadrella (Australian horse betting terminology meaning to couple all your selected possible winning outcomes). The M/W HS reversal pattern (from Feb and Dec 2016) projects a high of $80 (56-26)+50. A fib time projection would be Dec(breakout) x 1.618 := 1.94 or approx late Oct/Nov 2018. Immediate support resides at $67.70 then $66.60 then 65.60 (The recently reported build in inventories can probably be attributed to scheduled maintenance as the switch is made from Winter to Summer refined fuels. Coupled with this we have $US appreciation as interest rates rise (commodity bearish), GDP improves (bullish), some international tensions coming off the boil (bearish), and Iran and Venezuela go on (bullish). This is contributing to the indecision noted above. Further, reporting season now suggests that many of the oil dependent companies may not have hedged their purchase commitments:= inflationary:= lower profitability:= higher $US and interest rates:= lower oil demand. (sources CME; Barchart) Consequently (tick all of the above), I still favour the downside. CoT (source Quandl): Open Interest (OI) is rising (expected). Producer longs have increased (+5) to 44k. produce shorts are flat (+1) 25k and Fund longs are flat for the week. I will open a short on pin high bar close sub swing low of Apr 24 ($67.70) with a target a buck lower (initially), with an (initial) SL at $68.25+ leading into the politics of May 12. I know lousy RR, but this indecision is going to break soon and that will either improve or stop me. Plan B - double down! ... no just joking ... Then wait and see. PS if that red line indicator starts to rise, then the current short term top is in! ... just my 2c worth
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Oh_If_Only
Trade the Price! Hold Long Until Trend BreakWTI Jun18 CL1! 20 Apr $68.06 May closed Friday with a final OI of 3.7k contracts. June volume was down 140k on the day and OI reduced 3.1k Generally volume will trade lower for the remainder of this month then start to pick up early May and increase leading into contract close on May 22. So I would expect price to fade during this month, in the absence of an event, and then rally during May, but remember everything is relative. So fades and rallies will be around significant support and resistance and what price is doing - Not supposed to do. Right now, the uptrend is holding. My drawn rectangle is the activity area. Price needs to break and close below the uptrend line to suggest down side. Otherwise it is still up. It is dangerous to pre-empt a change in trend! Don't do it! wait until the upward sloping line breaks with a close. If it does break, first support is at $66.60 then the swing low at $65.56. Fibs are at (69.56 - 61.81):= 7.75 * 0.5 := $65.68; $64.77; $66.60 which align with Supports. Above major resistance is at a stratospheric $73.75, with secondary resistance at $69.70 and a significant $71.30 I favour the downside initially, but for once, I will follow my own advice. I have outlined our trading strategy and plans in an earlier post - trade the channel. Now you know what I know. Trade using your brains and what you see, not emotion nor opinion. ... just another 2c worth ..
NYMEX:CL1!
by Oh_If_Only
Recoil Incomplete Retracement Short then Longny journey is normally predetermined with some planning (what time is my bus, flight, train?, what time should I leave home, hotel?, where will I get fuel, accommodation, meals etc). All sensible trading should have similar plans, and back up plans. Lately I have noticed considerable ES activity outside US trading hours. This must scare some traders when they are spilling their morning coffee, and they see their long/short is 150 pts against them and their market hasn't even opened! So today I thought I would share my plans for my oil journey. Of particular note are three visible patterns: The ascending (flat topped) triangle at $66 (Resistance), the rising chanel, which we have been trading of late, and the Support line at $63. Ascending triangles are considered consolidation patterns. They normally like three or more hits (about 2/3 length) before penetration, BUT it is NOT a triangle until after it has broken out. In our case our lower channel boundary is the upward sloping radian, and the intersection occurs late May. So we will buy on: Pullback to our support line at $63; and/or the lower upward sloping radian (between $62 and $63 until Apr 20). Beware this date - it is Contract Expiry (CL1! ... rem this chart is CL2!) so expect churn during the preceeding week. Our Stop is the swing Low of Apr 6 - a few pts below (say) $61.70 Post Apr 20 our Stop will sit a few pts below our $63 support or any higher swing lows that occur subsequently. Our initial target is overhead Resistance at $66 Our Risk Reward becomes (66-63):(63-61.70) or 3 : 1.30 Watch for a coil to reverse a low on an incomplete retrace towards the lower channel line. Upside breech and close above this Resistance then puts the triangle in play. Normall breech is followed by a pullback retest of the break out price. So we would buy $66 Stop will be any swing low close below this breakout price Target becomes the Resistance - radian low + Resistance (66-58)+66 or $74 but lets gets the break out first then we will concentrate on the next leg of our journey.
NYMEX:CL2!Long
by Oh_If_Only
Jun18 WTI CL2! Oil NeutralWTI Jun CL2! It is rare for a major trend line to be penetrated and for that movement to continue the same day. So that is why I believe we will see some oscillation around this break on the Major for a day or 2 while price consolidates its latest movements. This will also be a major decision event as we have a trend break but a wedge coil under development, imo. If the trend line break does not hold (fake out) then the wedge will propel price higher. Expect at least 2 and possibly 5 tests on the rising trend line but price will be circa $63+ so you will know this. Use the pull backs as re-entry points or add-to's or top ups. Target $66 If price fails to regain the Major the look for a close below the Secondary. Price should retest this old support line now resistance. Look for inverted hammers or pin bar lows to suggest buyer exhaustion. Target $58 Also be aware that the May contract will roll circa April 20 so expect the OI to move about a week before that or on major oil news ... like a Syrian event. Remember material support sits at $60 and $58 I will up date as price progresses. ... just a further 2c worth ...
NYMEX:CL2!
by Oh_If_Only