VRM 35K calls block expiring soon! Extremely Bullish !!Yesterday i was amazed to see a block of 35K calls worth of $525K on VRM expiring May 20.
And i will explain to you why they might be extremely profitable!
Since its highs, VRM lost 97.76% of its value and it`s not a crypto, by the way, it`s a company that makes billions of dollars.
The calls are related to the first Quarter earnings on May 9, so they expire 11 days after the results.
What should we expect from the earnings?
- revenue growth! last quarter their Ecommerce revenue was $738.7 million, up 159% year over year; gross profit was also up a lot, 64% YoY!
- a strong financing business! On February 01, 2022, Vroom announced the successful completion of its acquisition of United Auto Credit Corporation (UACC), a proven leader in automotive finance for $300 Mil.
Soon after the news above was released, on 2/3/2022, Bank of America set a price target for VRM of $30.00
So how come it is trading at $1.62???
Well, 27.11% of the share float is Shorted!
Big institutional owners like Vanguard, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase have average entries at $40!
And many of them had recently averaged down their investment, like Goldman Sachs which reported on 2/17/2022 an increase of 104.5% in their ownership in VRM, respectively 1,753,977 shares worth $18.93Mil for a total of 1.281% of the company. Their average is now $22.55.
So if they are happy with a 22 average, how come we don`t we buy it at $1.62?
VRM has a Price to book ratio of 0.24 now.
A P/B ratio less than 1 means that the stock is trading at less than its book value, it`s way undervalued!
the Price to Sales ratio is only 0.07! By comparison, its rival, CVNA (Carvana), has a P/S of 1.16.
Based on Q4 Financials, If they liquidated the inventory, cash in on all receivables and pay off the
$600M senior note, each shareholder will receive approximatively $6.5 per share.
If we look at the daily timeframe, VRM formed a falling wedge pattern which is extremely bullish as you know, on an oversold area, 25 on the RSI.
Institutional ownership in VRM is high, 92.19%
52 Week Range 1.58 - 48.80
Market Cap of only $235.47Mil! Can be a buyout at this point!
2021 Revenue: $3.18Bil
All things considered, fundamental and technical analysis, i think that the 35K calls will be in the money, extremely profitable, by the time of expiration.
My short term price target for VRM is $5.5, i think it`s trading so low because it`s heavily shorted by the hedge funds, to have a better average on their entry.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
CVNA
Carvana (NYSE: $CVNA) Starting To Look Interesting! 🚗Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company's platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
What is Anchoring? a Behavioral Finance phenomenonIf you have an investment that has experienced a decrease in value significantly, and you decided to keep and sell at your entry price, please read this article it may help you to make a better decision.
Before we go to the main educational point, keep in mind those who bought tech stocks at the market peak in 2000-2001, waited 15 years to get even..!
Educational Point:
Anchoring
The concept is part of the field of behavioral finance, which studies how emotions and other extraneous factors influence economic choices.
In the context of investing, one consequence of anchoring is that market participants with an anchoring bias tend to hold investments that have lost value because they have anchored their fair value estimate to the original price rather than to fundamentals. As a result, market participants assume a greater risk by holding the investment in the hope the security will return to its purchase price. Market participants are often aware that their anchor is imperfect and attempt to make adjustments to reflect subsequent information and analysis. However, these adjustments often produce outcomes that reflect the bias of the original anchors.
Examples:
1-DASH:
2-FB:
3-CVNA:
4-CRWD:
5- ZM:
6- COIN:
7-SPOT:
8- NFLX:
9-PTON:
10- RNG:
these are just some examples of stocks that lost more than half of their value in the past few months or weeks..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Reference article:
www.investopedia.com
Carvana bouncing from its 200 EMA. As the earnings is approaching. Carvana looking to bounce from its 200 EMA line.
As it makes the move upward, it might potentially create momentum breaking its 21 day EMA (currently at $298) then its 50 day EMA (currently at $310).
First target within next few daily sessions is $300 to $310.
If it breaks above $315, Looking to test its ALL time high in next few months.
RSI is currently over sold. MACD signaling bullish crossover. (OVERALL LOOKING BULLISH IN FUTURE)
AVERAGE ANALYST PRICE TARGET - $401
Has Carvana Run Out of SteamCarvana ( cvna ) has been in a rally since mid-May and recently Carvana beat earnings by over 160%.
Shareholders who have been riding this profitable rally have raked in over 59% in unrealized gains. These same shareholders should now start to wonder if it's time to take some of that profit.
For online used car dealer Carvana, acquiring vehicles is less of a problem, said CEO Ernie Garcia, but the company faces a different kind of supply constraint.
Garcia said, "Over the last several quarters we've actually bought more cars from our customers than we've sold them. But we don't have the capacity today to certify as many of the cars as we could buy and we have more demand than we can handle as well."
The question savvy investors are asking is this. Has business for Carvana reached a ceiling for now, and therefore, has its stock price also reached the same point?
The stock price fell into a range of $328/support and $340/resistance for about two weeks before earnings. Then, after beating earnings, the stock price had a burst of momentum.
Now, the stock price, volume, and RSI have all turned lower while the economy is shifting and FUD enters the market.
So the question to ask must be; has Carvana's stock run out of steam for the next few months?
$BABA $NOW $CVNA $GLD I OptionsSwing WatchlistBABA 1D I Testing the $205 area for the third time, could be seeing a triple bottom before the breakout from this falling wedge.
NOW 1D I We could be seeing a possible inverse H&S, Watching above the $567 level for continuation and possible retest of $600 before its ER.
GLD 1D I After breaking out from a bull flag back, we are seeing GLD retrace back and possibly making a double bottom near $165.
CVNA 1D I Showed strength last week and it is testing ATH levels. Watching a break above $325 with volume to see it continue run up into earnings.
CVNA Earnings IdeaCVNA price action will be interesting to watch as it runs up to earnings. I don't think earnings will be different this time around - nothing has really changed with pandemic and people are still looking for used cars as an alternative transportation.
Price action has been grinding the upward trendline as well, and hopefully continues to do so. Will be looking at 189 and 184 as possible entry points which is possible by Friday 10/23.
CVNA has also been surprisingly undersold since gapping up last month.
$CVNA Massive Earnings Movement$CVNA had a ripper of a day on the back of earnings. This propelled prices right back up to the major range highs. The difference this time around is that the volume is backing the move up now and earnings being the catalyst shows immense longer term strength (potentially weeks to months).
$CVNA Rising Triangle PatternOpened a position in this today when it broke the triangle. It did pull back in, I may have jumped the gun as this could be a false break-out. It is a nice pattern and did get an upgrade today with a $120 price target. I'm in at $96.02 still in the money. My stop is $90 and first target is a measured move to $112 then hopefully to $120 upgraded target. Ideas, not trading / investing advice.