CVS Health Corp | CVS | Long at $43Not much to write about here except the stock has reentered the "crash" simple moving average area (see green lines). Often, this signals an overall bottom, but it doesn't mean a further dip below $40 isn't possible in the near-term. Personally, I can't ignore this reentry and thus have started a position at $43 (after closing out a previous position in October in the $60's). The company has a lot of headwinds, but if Walgreens NASDAQ:WBA is also in trouble, is NYSE:CVS too big to fail in the short-term?
Target #1 = $53.00
Target #2 = $60.00
Target #3 = $65.00
Target #4 = $68.00
CVS
CVS Health Corp | CVS | Long at $61.00NYSE:CVS Health Corp will need a revision to its business model in order to survive an ever-changing retail/pharmacy environment. However, with a P/E of 10x, debt-to-equity of less than 1x, growing cash flow, and dividend yield of 4.3%, the stock seems quite undervalued. Perhaps activist investors will soon step in, but if history repeats, there may be a nice bounce ahead as the price consolidates in the GETTEX:50S and low $60s. Thus, near its current price of $61, NYSE:CVS is in a personal buy zone.
Target #1 = $66.00
Target #2 = $68.00
Target #3 = $75.00
Target #4 = $79.00
Looking for an obvious breakout on CVS! 🔉Sound on!🔉
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CVS - CVS Health: If the stock drops a few points, I'll be buyiIf the stock drops a few points, I'll be buying very heavily...
CVS and WBA are in the same sector. And both have been decimated. CVS, however, is doing better. And they're paying a dividend.
Target, at least +10%.
Trading at 70% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 9% per year
Earnings grew by 140% over the past year
DIVIDEND = Pays a high and reliable dividend of 4.75%
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 20%
CVS Health's Stock Tumbles 14% in Premarket trading on TuesdayCVS Health (NYSE: NYSE:CVS ) is grappling with significant challenges as its stock dropped 14% following the release of its second-quarter earnings report. Despite beating earnings expectations, the company has lowered its full-year profit outlook for the third consecutive quarter due to rising medical costs and operational shifts in its health insurance business.**
Earnings and Revenue Overview
CVS Health reported:
- Earnings per share (EPS): $1.83 (adjusted) vs. $1.73 expected by analysts
- Revenue: $91.23 billion vs. $91.5 billion expected
The company achieved a net income of $1.77 billion, or $1.41 per share, down from $1.90 billion, or $1.48 per share, in the same quarter last year. Revenue grew by 2.6% year-over-year, driven by its pharmacy and insurance businesses.
Profit Outlook and Executive Changes
CVS Health has revised its 2024 adjusted earnings outlook to $6.40-$6.65 per share, down from the previous guidance of at least $7 per share. This adjustment reflects ongoing pressure from higher medical costs, particularly within its health insurance segment, which includes Aetna's Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and other plans.
In a significant management shift, Aetna President Brian Kane will leave the company immediately. CEO Karen Lynch will assume management responsibilities for the insurance unit, with CFO Thomas Cowhey and Chief Strategy Officer Katerina Guerraz assisting.
Medical Costs and Industry Pressures
The healthcare industry is experiencing increased medical costs as more Medicare Advantage patients return to hospitals for procedures delayed during the pandemic, such as joint and hip replacements. This trend is putting pressure on insurance companies like CVS Health, UnitedHealth Group, Humana, and Elevance Health.
CVS Health's Medicare Advantage star ratings, which help Medicare patients compare health and drug plans, have also impacted its performance. The company's medical benefit ratio rose to 89.6% from 86.2% a year earlier, indicating higher medical expenses relative to premiums collected.
Segment Performance
- Insurance Segment: Generated $32.48 billion in revenue, up 21% year-over-year, but reported adjusted operating income of $938 million, below analyst expectations.
- Health Services Segment: Generated $42.17 billion in revenue, down nearly 9% year-over-year. Processed 471.2 million pharmacy claims, down from 576.6 million a year ago.
- Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness Division: Reported $29.84 billion in sales, up over 3% year-over-year, driven by increased prescription volume.
However, the segment faced challenges from pharmacy reimbursement pressure, the introduction of new generic drugs, and decreased front-store volume.
Strategic Adjustments
CVS Health's pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) Caremark has seen declines due to losing key clients like Tyson Foods and Blue Shield of California. These losses reflect broader industry shifts towards transparency and cost reduction, with startups and government initiatives reshaping the landscape.
Conclusion
CVS Health's third-quarter earnings report underscores the significant challenges facing the company as it navigates rising medical costs and shifting industry dynamics. The lowered profit outlook and executive changes signal the need for strategic adjustments to address these pressures. As CVS Health adapts to these evolving conditions, the market will closely watch its efforts to stabilize and grow its diverse healthcare and retail operations.
WBA - go fill in that gap, damn it! Walgreens Boots Alliance Trading at 75.8% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 83.28% per year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
WBA stock is a strong buy due to its consistent dividend yield, robust global presence, and strategic initiatives in healthcare and retail. The company's expansion into digital health positions it for future growth.
CVS Long Swing 1H Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long balance
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ ICE level
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ volumed bullish bars
+ unvolumed bearish bars
Calculated affordable stop limit
25% 1 to 2 R/R
25% 1/2 of the daily range
25% Daily T1 level
25% Monthly 1/2
Daily context
"+ long impulse
+ T2 level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ exhaustion volume below"
Monthly context
"- short impulse
- unvolumed T1
+ support level
+ biggest volume manipulation"
CVS Health Plunges to 3-Year Low for the First TimeCVS Health Corporation ( NYSE:CVS ) stock price nosedives to its lowest level in three years, sending shockwaves through the market. The pharmacy chain's dismal performance in the first quarter of 2024 has rattled investors, with shares plummeting over 12% in premarket trading.
The root cause of CVS Health's ( NYSE:CVS ) precipitous decline lies in its underwhelming Q1 earnings report, which fell short of market expectations on multiple fronts. Despite reporting a revenue of $88.44 billion, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-over-year, the figure failed to meet analysts' projections of $89.33 billion. Similarly, net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS) witnessed a significant decline compared to the previous year, with profits plummeting from $2.14 billion to $1.12 billion and EPS dropping from $1.65 to 88 cents.
The downward spiral in CVS Health's fortunes can be attributed to a confluence of factors, chief among them being the slashing of its 2024 profit forecast. The company revised its adjusted EPS outlook downward to at least $7.00, down from the initial projection of at least $8.30. This drastic revision stems from mounting medical costs incurred by its insurance unit, driven by a surge in medical procedures that were postponed during the pandemic. As patients opt to undergo delayed treatments, CVS's insurance divisions are bearing the brunt, impacting the company's bottom line.
While there was a faint glimmer of hope in the form of a slight sales increase in its pharmacy and consumer wellness division, with sales rising almost 3% to $28.73 billion, it failed to offset the broader disappointment.
The challenges facing CVS Health ( NYSE:CVS ) extend beyond financial metrics, with the company grappling with workforce reductions and the loss of high-profile clients like Tyson Foods. The tumultuous environment has prompted NYSE:CVS to revise its full-year EPS guidance downward to at least $5.64, down from the previous estimate of at least $7.06.
Despite the gloomy outlook, CEO Karen Lynch remains steadfast in her optimism about the company's long-term prospects. She asserts that while CVS faces near-term challenges, its fundamental strengths and strategic initiatives position it for sustained growth in the future.
Box Store Giants: Macro Fib SchematicsWalmart, Costco, Target, CVS, Home Depot, and Walgreens are the largest box store giants in the market. Proctor and Gamble along with Nike are in here because they are both also mega corporations and since P&G has so many products in these stores. Nike is also a staple in these stores but Proctor and Gamble especially belongs here.
These Fibonacci Schematics are extremely clean and probably the best looking structure I have ever seen. This is an excellent example of market mechanics working through Fib Schematics.
If we were to talk about what we see here 2/27/24 then we see....
- Walmart at a couple resistances.
- P&G launching off massive Fib Cluster support.
- Costco testing the waters above and getting ready to jump into next levels.
- Home Depot testing its midpoint from its high with a massive front run from the Thick Orange Fib Line after the actual rejection at the high. This means we are set to launch through the high at 420.
- Target barely rejected the high (FRONTRUN) and found reasonable support on the same supports it FRONTRAN. Target is poised to go crazy high.
- Nike looks like it can do anything.
- CVS also looks like it can do anything but looks more bearish tbh.
CVS Health Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CVS Health Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 75usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-9,
for a premium of approximately $1.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CVS Health Lays out Changes That May Save some Customers MoneyCVS Health is introducing changes to how its prescription drug pricing model works, and that could lead to some savings for customers starting next year.
The health care giant said Tuesday that it will roll out a new reimbursement model designed to make costs more predictable at the drugstore counter. The company will start offering it next year to some third-party cash discount card administrators.
Cash discount cards like those offered by GoodRx can give customers a price break on out-of-pocket costs for some prescriptions, depending on the person’s coverage and the drug.
CVS Health drugstores will start using the company’s new Cost Vantage model more broadly in 2025. It is designed to make drug costs more transparent. It involves a formula based on the cost of the drug, a set markup and then a fee for filling the prescription.
CVS Health runs one of the nation’s largest drugstore chains and a large pharmacy benefit management business that operates prescription drug coverage for big clients like insurers and employers.
It also sells health insurance through its Aetna arm, and the company has been providing a growing amount of care through its drugstores and clinics.
The company also announced on Tuesday a 10% hike in its quarterly dividend and laid out its forecast for next year. CVS Health expects adjusted earnings of at least $8.50 per share. It also forecasts total revenue of at least $366 billion.
Analysts expect earnings of $8.51 per share on $344.5 billion in revenue, according to FactSet.
Price Momentum
CVS is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and near its 200-day simple moving average. Investors have been pushing the share price lower, but the stock might be losing some downward momentum. This is a neutral sign for the stock's future value.
CVS Health Higher on Dividend Boost, Solid 2024 Revenue ForecastCVS Health, facing the potential for deeper industry consolidation, lifted its 2024 sales forecast and boosted its quarterly dividend.
CVS Health (CVS) - shares jumped higher Tuesday after the group boosted its quarterly dividend, while forecasting stronger-than-expected 2024 sales. The health-care and drugstore group looks to streamline its broader business amid renewed talk of consolidation in the health-insurance sector.
CVS sees overall revenue of at least $366 billion next year, firmly ahead of the LSEG forecast of around $346 billion, with adjusted profit coming in at around $8.51 per share. The group also reiterated its 2023 forecasts for adjusted profit in the region of $8.50 to $8.70 a share as well as cash flows from its overall business to come in between $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion.
In addition, CVS lifted its quarterly dividend by 10%, to 66.5 cents a share, payable Feb. 1 to holders of record Jan. 22.
CVS shares were marked 2.44% higher in premarket trading to indicate an opening bell price of $70.18 each, a move that would nudge the stock into positive territory for the past six months.
CVS rebrands health services division
The Woonsocket, Rhode Island-based group, one of the country's biggest pharmacy-benefits managers, also unveiled plans to rebrand its Health Services segment under the name CVS Healthspire. That division will include a host of its current units, including Oak Street Health, Signify and its MinuteClinic.
"Delivering care in a more integrated way — especially for complex patients with chronic health conditions — improves health outcomes and the patient experience," said Oak Street Health's interim president, Mike Pykosz.
Technical Analysis
CVS is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average. Investors have been pushing the share price lower, and the stock still appears to have downward momentum. This is a negative sign for the stock's future value.
WBA in a long trend down SHORTWBA is Walgreens. On the daily chart it is down about 50% from the highs of late 2019, the
summer of 2021 and winter of 2021. WBA may be suffering from not keeping up with online
mail-order prescription filling and online in general. Like others, it may be suffering from
potential downside of litigation related to the opioid epidemic.
Mark Cuban and his Cost Plus Drugs may be having an impact on WBA . Merely a reasonable
conjecture on my part. WBA beat earnings for three years of quarters prior to this most recent
one. Importantly, on the long-range volume profile WBA is below the POC line where most
traders prefer to trade. It is even farther below the POC line of the near term volume profile.
The other indicators show ongoing or even accelerating bearish momentum.
I will short WBA in what I think will be a long-duration swing trade. I will look into put option
contracts as well.
RAD - Is there such a thing as a safe SHORT?If there was ever a thing such as a safe short- I think it would be Rite Aid (RAD)
As shown on a monthly chart, RAD triple topped in 2015=2017 and has been in a decline
every since. It has shed 90% of its market cap in the intervening 6-8 years. Now, it is
fundamentally fighting for survival. This is because as a weaker drugstore retailer and
the rise of Walgreens, CVS and others as well as RAD's role in the opioid epidemic
( I have insider knowledge) RAD is now filing for bankruptcy protection against
claims and litigation which will vastly outstrip its liability protections. All confirmations
on the monthly chart ( high validity given the time frame) considered in context, RAD
is near to its death bed. The judge will be ing the rights of shareholders against the rights
of litigants ( which include Medicare, Medicaid and state governments). The shareholders will
loose and loose very badly. I will go short in a stock trade and take a large put option position.
There is no need to buy call options here for backside protection. The writing is on the wall.
CVS testing breakout resistanceCVS Health Corp (CVS) presently testing breakout resistance, able to contain weekly buying pressures. From here (CVS) can fall back to recent lows, eliciting losses of 15% over the following 1-2 months. A settlement below a near-term channel bottom would accelerate this potential selloff. Inversely, if a settlement above breakout resistance occurs, this would place (CVS) in a a buy signal where gains of 15% would be expected within 2-3 months, and 20% over the following 3-5 months.
CVS Health Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CVS Health Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 75usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-9-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Oversold almost finishedAfter breaking down the channel and breaking the first support area CVS is approaching really strong buy Area.
I expect the stock to rebound there and have a nice 2 to 1 ratio buy opportunity.
* 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲. 𝗔𝗹𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵.