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Cycle

🔥 Bitcoin Pi-Cycle Bottom Indicator Signals Bear Market BottomBefore we dive deeper into the analysis I want to give a quick overview of what the pi-cycle bottom indicator is, "The indicator comprises a 471-day simple moving average (SMA) and a 150-period exponential moving average (EMA). Furthermore, the 471-day SMA is multiplied by 0.745; the outcome is pitted against the 150-day EMA to predict the underlying market's bottom." In short, the Pi-Cycle bottom indicator is similar too the Pi-Cycle top indicator, but with different values. Historically, the Pi-Cycle bottom indicator has signaled the BTC bear-market bottom within 3 days of the signal. This would mean that the BTC bottom will be in within the next three days. However, will the pi-cycle bottom indicator work again this time? There's only two previous instances of the indicator working, one can't really deduce statistical validity from an N=2. Funnily enough, people said the same thing about the Pi-Cycle top indicator last year. In hindsight, the Pi-Cycle top indicator did a great job signaling the technical top for the current BTC cycle (technical top = top based on indicators and on-chain metrics). Will this time be different? Maybe. The current macro-economic outlook is vastly different from the previous cycles. Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market has never been this high and, with inflation still on the rise and a recession looming, stocks are more likely to go down than to go up in the near-future. Unless today's CPI numbers will cause a huge 20%-30% sell-off, I don't think that BTC will bottom within the next three days. Time will tell. Nevertheless, I think that this indicator is one of the better bear-market bottom indicators. Bottoms never occur when people expect it.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by FieryTrading
11
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jul-12 2022 Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 8 out of 5.78 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 116.58-110.43 🛸Buy UFOs: 80.47-77.83 3️⃣Options IV: 53.10% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.32 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.30 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±15.21 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 15 out of 5.69 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 1834.9-1783.4 🛸Buy UFOs: 1652.8-1624.4 3️⃣Options IV: 19.72% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±21.51 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±47.36 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±98.59 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 10 out of 4.94 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 107.615-106.530 3️⃣Options IV: 12.68% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.86 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.90 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±3.96 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 1 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 22452.5-21237.5 🛸Buy UFOs: 19922.5-19122.5 3️⃣Options IV: 81.63% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1012.50 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±2228.92 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±4639.86 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
"bTc hAs No VaLuE AnD WiLL CrAsH bELoW 10K"...PI CYCLE BOTTOM!!!I LOVE PICKING BOTTOMS...AGGRESIVELY...WITH HARD WOODEN STICK!!! xD P.S. I saw the 111DMA has almost crossed the "350DMAx2" in the beginning of April 2021 and COULD NOT STOP LAUGHING ABOUT THE MORONIC PI CYCLE "INDICATOR" WITH IDIOTS LOOKING AT IT BECAUSE WE WERE GOING TO 100K FOR BTC "AT LEAST" AND WAS EVEN ASKING IN TWITTER IF SOME STAGRAM FLUENCER RIGGED THOSE LINES FOR FAKE FAME....a month later in the middle of May -> ELON MUSK AND THE CHINESE COULD NOT STOP LAUGHING AT OUR STUPIDITY TO THINK IT IS GOING STRAIGHT TO 200K 500K AND THE MOON............ Will act accordingly this time instead of ridiculing SIMPLE MATH and those obviously clever guys that came up with that EXACT (+-2 days) TRIGGER FOR BTC TOPS AND BOTTOMS! =)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by u3KbPTeH
4
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jul-11 2022Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 7 out of 5.78 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 116.58-110.43 🛸Buy UFOs: 102.14-95.10 3️⃣Options IV: 52.10% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.37 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.41 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±15.42 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 14 out of 5.69 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 1834.9-1783.4 🛸Buy UFOs: 1652.8-1624.4 3️⃣Options IV: 19.41% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±21.20 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±46.67 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±97.15 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 9 out of 4.94 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 105.440-104.405 3️⃣Options IV: 11.16% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.76 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.66 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±3.46 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 4 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 31732.5-29432.5 🛸Buy UFOs: 19922.5-19122.5 3️⃣Options IV: 77.19% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1004.60 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±2211.51 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±4603.63 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
Pi-Cycle Bottom Will Cross Tomorrow Most LikelyThe Pi-Cycle Bottom will most likely cross tomorrow. If the indicator remains predictive, and consistent with itself, the bottom should occur within a few days of it crossing. This would imply significant downside coinciding with an important CPI/Fed meeting this week. There is precedent for the indicator crossing and BTCUSD falling -40% within the following few days. I've wavered quite a lot on the question of whether the macro bottom is in. Mostly due to Ben Cowen's credibility and views, I'm currently leaning towards the bottom not being in and significant downside still to come. The pi-cycle bottom crossing in this context may impy we will see a large downside move in the next week.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MarkLefevre
1
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jul-8 2022Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 6 out of 5.78 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 116.58-110.43 🛸Buy UFOs: 102.14-95.10 3️⃣Options IV: 52.87% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.42 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.53 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±15.67 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 13 out of 5.69 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 1834.9-1783.4 🛸Buy UFOs: 1652.8-1624.4 3️⃣Options IV: 20.50% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±22.42 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±49.36 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±102.76 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 8 out of 4.94 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 105.440-104.405 3️⃣Options IV: 11.46% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.77 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.70 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±3.54 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 3 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 31732.5-29432.5 🛸Buy UFOs: 19922.5-19122.5 3️⃣Options IV: 81.04% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1097.71 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±2416.50 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±5030.34 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jul-7 2022Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 5 out of 5.78 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 116.58-110.43 🛸Buy UFOs: 80.47-77.83 3️⃣Options IV: 54.67% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.43 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.53 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±15.67 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 12 out of 5.69 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 1834.9-1783.4 🛸Buy UFOs: 1652.8-1624.4 3️⃣Options IV: 21.91% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±24.04 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±52.92 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±110.17 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 7 out of 4.94 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 105.440-104.405 3️⃣Options IV: 11.84% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.80 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.75 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±3.64 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: NO 🎯Stats: 1 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 22917.5-20120.0 🛸Buy UFOs: 19922.5-19122.5 3️⃣Options IV: 81.56% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1048.24 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±2307.59 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±4803.63 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
Daily Checklist Before The Market Opens | Jul-6 2022Hello and thank you if you are a regular reader 🖖 Welcome if you are new to my daily publication... 👍 Publishing this post on a daily basis helps me avoid distractions and sets my focus to be fully in line with the now in the marketplace. Knowing you read me keeps me accountable and forces me to be objective in my analysis which helps with my own trading emotions and temptations 😉 This selfish moment may also serve you well 😁 as my findings may guide you into understanding the markets better, or may simply act as a second opinion after you have performed your own analysis 👏 The rationale of my analysis is detailed on the chart itself so you don't need to look up and down. Below you will simply find the results of my process applied to other four relevant markets I always check before I trade. Trade well! OIL: NYMEX:CL1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 4 out of 5.78 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 116.58-110.43 🛸Buy UFOs: 80.47-77.83 3️⃣Options IV: 52.61% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±3.30 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±7.28 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±15.14 GOLD: COMEX:GC1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 11 out of 5.69 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 1834.9-1783.4 🛸Buy UFOs: 1652.8-1624.4 3️⃣Options IV: 21.33% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±23.65 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±52.07 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±108.39 DOLLAR: ICEUS:DX1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: UP 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 6 out of 4.93 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: - 🛸Buy UFOs: 105.440-104.405 3️⃣Options IV: 11.51% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±0.77 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±1.70 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±3.54 BITCOIN: ICEUS:BTM1! 1️⃣Market CLIMATE 🎯Current: DOWN 🎯Confirmed: YES 🎯Stats: 19 out of - 2️⃣Buy and Sell UFOs 🛸Sell UFOs: 22917.5-20120.0 🛸Buy UFOs: 14347.5-13027.5 3️⃣Options IV: 91.56% 🚀Daily Expected Move: ±1166.38 🚀Weekly Expected Move: ±2567.67 🚀Monthly Expected Move: ±5345.03 I believe now you know why UFO and 3D are part of my name… Feel free to private-message me and share more about your trading style if you are too attracted by those UFOs 💪 *This daily post is not intended to be used as financial advice
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UFO3Dtrader
BTC Macros, Cycle base supportEvery cycle has its moments of exess greed, and every cycle has its moments of exess panic. However we always follow the logarithmic uptrend, with its backbone being the trend pre mega pump. In the last cycle the bottom did not take too long post breaking of this "backbone", and usualy a single sharp break followed by minor testing of the lower ranges was the result. As the covid crash on 2021 can be concidered an abnormal event, we can therefore minimise its effects, while still concidering that it would cause abnormal behaviour (Such as a faster false peek, followed by a retest of said peek later) Additionaly with the shift in BTC overall behaviour we can expect shorter bear markets, as the overall market increases in size, the drops will become shorter and less extreeme, as well as shorter in duration. Fundamentaly BTC faces the issue of speculation, which draws away from its purpose as a store of value. This behaviour will soon be more evident, now that once again speculators are washed out of the market, and large players are loading up for future gains.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by JokerMate
1
BITCOIN - History Repeats Itself!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. The picture is self-explanatory. We are overall bearish from a long-term perspective trading inside the big dashed channel in black. Inside the black channel, we had the first impulse in red, then a correction in blue, and we are currently inside the second impulse movement (red channel). Inside the impulse movement in red, we can see three phases, which we can compare to the first red channel. We had our two impulse movements downward and two consolidations in gray. we are currently in the third gray consolidation. If History Repeats Itself, we still need a break below the third gray consolidation downward, to find support around the 10k-12k weekly demand for the next blue correction to start. The bulls would invalidate this scenario if we break above the upper red trendline, in this case we would have a premature / early correction. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good Luck!. All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheSignalyst
36
Bitcoin long term analysis - (2012-2022)If the older chart patterns serve as an indicator to predict future movements, we can conclude that the price is not far from establishing a bottom and reaching the accumulation zone, where it previously spent months lateralizing until reaching the halving and starting a new cycle. Look Blue vertical line - Halving's Green area - Bull Market Red area - Bear Market Blue area - Accumulation zone Yellow arrow - time period to ATH Yellow dashed line - ATH BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Wojak19
1
Well 22K didnt hold So if we break down new bearish target 12KSince we are dropping so quickly to 20K so early in the bear cycle, My new thoughts for a likely target is 12K Reasons are: Global markets are in a abnormal bear cycle due to many global issue's. To keep inflation under control the governments across the world are raising interest rates & we have a very nervous global market. Issue's arising with China & current Russian aggression has created a energy shortage adding to inflation & scaring the market investors away. Unemployment across many countries is very low ATM however with recession taking hold this may see many business & jobs fold. So my conclusion is that if the market keeps failing from this post we are going to see the crypto market follow. I feel this is almost a certinty to happen. BTC next halving is around early to mid 2024 so that leaves plenty of time to grind lower & I really cant see any logical reasons why BTC will go bullish until then. Advice for any one reading this is to trade carefully & save those dollars for the next BTC halving bull run.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheAussieBogan
3