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Return of Volatility IndexesIt's September 18 2024 10:51pm EST, just another Wednesday. Elections are creeping up and Chinese (HSI) markets are sparking uptrend. Somehow, American volatility indexes are evidently setting up for what appears to be a big return to the upside. Perhaps only a rare few have captured it? Who knows, but the cycles don't lie and neither do the high timeframe supercycles, which imply a reversal is overdue for the volatility indexes, including UVXY (ETF), VXX(ETN), and VIX and their corresponding denominations, just to name a few. In any event, it would be fair to say that after today's close and going forward, these volatility indexes are ready for takeoff. The catalysts are not exactly clear, though. Election alone can't spark them, and if Covid triggered the last significant run, what's next? This, only time will tell, but the 'vola' indexes are nonetheless ready for takeoff.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by JuanLagos94
1
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Nvidia - A Correction Of -50% Is Starting!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is reversing at a strong resistance: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Last month Nvidia already corrected about -35% but managed to close with an indecision doji candle. However, previous cycles, the recent rally of +1.000% and the fact that Nvidia is retesting a strong resistance trendline all suggest that Nvidia will still move much lower soon. Levels to watch: $100, $55 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
27
Why is this technically a mini bear market?We find a bottom every December, usually after the election if there was a downtrend we had a collapse, like 2018 and 2022, it wasn't the Presidential election but it was the US Midterm elections. So maybe we should expect a good October, but it's quite possible that right after the election around November 10 we could have a collapse. Maybe the market will react to Kamala's victory or something else. So you can see from the RSI how cycles work, and the current cycle that started in 2023 on January 1 will end in 2025 on January 1, we had 15 months of bull market, and 9 months of bear market. So I think that on January 1, 2025 we will start a new cycle, which may well last until the end of 2026.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ohueno
BITCOIN - Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles combined with DataIf you look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin and examine the three previous cycles in crypto, you can see where we currently stand. This doesn’t guarantee that we’ll go up from here, but it does show that the chart often follows a similar pattern every cycle. Price movements are a universal phenomenon seen across all charts in various sectors, not just crypto. Often, you’ll notice an asset testing its all-time high (ATH) and then taking a “breath.” After that, the asset typically moves beyond its ATH and embarks on a bullish journey. The market tends to become more greedy once it surpasses the ATH because it means everyone in the market is in profit. Of course, it depends on what you bought, but the principle remains the same. I see a lot of people worried about where we’re headed next. Nothing is for certain, but stop reading the news and worrying about recessions. England and Germany are currently in recessions and have just broken their ATHs. Recessions have nothing to do with price action. Many are also concerned that the markets will crash once the rate cut season starts, which is highly likely to occur in September. However, historical data suggests otherwise. If you look back 70 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% return one year after the first rate cut. By using data and following cycles, like the one below and the 18.6-year real estate and economic cycle, it becomes much easier to handle the drawdowns and negativity you hear around you. Using Fibonacci retracement, I believe we could see a top for Bitcoin around $150-200K before the next bear market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WealthNode
Bitcoin Is Perfectly On Track This CycleIn this analysis I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's current bull-cycle and compare it with the previous cycles. I count from December 2011 onwards. As seen on the chart, the first cycle (yellow) is an outlier in both duration and growth. We will likely never experience something like that again. The most interesting cycles to compare the current cycle to ar the second (blue) and the third (purple). As Bitcoin matures as an asser, it will likely experience diminishing returns. In other words; lower total gains from bear bottom to bull top. However, cycle 4 is outperforming both previous cycles at their respective times. The most logical explanation would be that we had the BTC Spot ETF this year, which caused massive bullish pressure from institutional investors. Chances are that we have to endure a couple more neutral/bearish months in order to get below the blue and purple lines before we can see any substantial growth to >100k. All in all, this cycle is on track with the previous cycles. If it were to follow the last two, we can expect BTC to top somewhere in the last quarter of 2025. Happy to hear your thoughts!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
4
Weak Dollar And Bullish Technicals Signal For Higher BitcoinAfter some initial recession fears spurred by the NFP report showing higher unemployment (4.3%) at the start of Avugust, stocks have bounced back up as last week’s retail sales data indicates the economy isn’t as bad as feared. CPI figures have also helped stabilize the markets, and with the FED potentially closer to cutting rates in September, the stock market may continue higher. Now that stocks are back to bullish mode, we can see a strong risk-on sentiment that can push stocks even higher, while USDollar will most likely stay under bearish pressure along with US Yields, which can help Crypto market to stay in the bullish trend. So this time we want to update an interesting weekly BITCOIN technical chart we have been tracking for the last two years. Notice that back in 2023, bitcoin broke out of a downtrend channel and then retested it as a support, followed by a rise above 50-week Moving Average, which interestingly, also held as a support. Since then price turned higher, and start forming some extended structures since the beginning of 2024. Now in the second part of 2024 we got some slowdown after touching 80k, but it clearly looks like a corrective and sideways price movement within uptrend, that once again retested 50-week MA support, also with nice bullish hammer candlestick formation. That said, be aware of a bullish continuation into the end of 2024.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ew-forecast
Euribor cycle analysisYou know fiat currencies that are not pegged to anything they say but is it really true… Isn't fiat tied to the people in dept, families with mortgages, isn't that what keeps it stable, right? If this is correct, doesn't that mean that in the big picture, the interest rate cycle is all that matters if you want to understand the economy. I believe so. But that's not all, I've noticed something funny. Do you want to see? Try calculating the dates between bottoms, the cycle length actually doubles each cycle, each cycle comes at the right time... how is that even possible? Can we now look to the future? Is everything written in the stars or in someone's book.. Or am I just crazy? Maybe both, but either way, I think the chart is trying to tell us that there's going to be an AI/robotics-driven super cycle that lasts until 2056, with everyone running cheap money. What do you think is the "cause" of the depression of 2056. Maybe the robots will go to strike and the AI ​​will turn hostile? But wait, what is cause and what is cause, or is there just a cycle that causes everything? Forget it... it's better not to think too much. Watch TV or go for a walk.
ICEEUR:I1!Long
by Lm424LRs8CNEAk
Odds and Psychology.Based on "Think fast and slow", people have two system thinking. System-1 is autonomous, always working in background (ie unconsciousness), lazy, intuitive, fast, has stereotypes. System-2 is rational, hard problem solving, takes effort and energy, cuts trough the BS, etc (ie consciousness). Based on another book called "superforcasters" and some dude I forgot his name, best approach for odds is to have simple system; where 100% certain. 93% almost certain. 75% probable. 50% about even (or maybe). 25% probably not. 7% almost certainly not. 0% impossible. All forecast are subjective guesses. The catch; If you think something is 100% - you would go allin with max lever. (If you dont) your beliefs or opinion go against your actions. If you dont believe it's wise to go allin - then odds are not actually 100%. If you are stressed about 93% spot, then maybe it might not be 93% after all. (1:14). In key SPX areas, based on business cycle and TNX, logic says one odds (or System-2) and your intuition (or feel) says differently. You are either too bearish or too bullish. This is a simple representation of concept. Another key concept is that TIME <----> PROBABILITY are at opposite sides of coin. The closer or far away in time something - more or less risk, ie higher or lower probability.
SP:SPXEducation
by citsvar
Buying Silver at 22$ based on H.Marks Cycle theory.Risk and Time are in opposite sides of a coin. Meaning what is unknown equals risk. Markets are forward pricing mechanism, meaning when something is known - usually was already priced in (bought with risk). H.Marks theory was you should buy things in advance, when there was hypothetical most risk; in practice it would be the least risk (as shown in graph). As long as there were hedges and drivers? You cant measure future demand? Here key words were economic gravity and inflation trend (unknown). Once we saw inflation in mid-January -> we could start placing bets on silver (22$). //Highest profit comes from buying in advance (combining w/ 200dma cycle?). When something is "risk-free" or certain -> it has 50-50 chance of profit and loss in both directions?; when something is "small risk", certain has small returns. //this works as long as there is 1:5 potential.
TVC:SILVER
by citsvar
Using S5TH (spx stocks above 200dma) as an oscillator timing cycPretty cool feature. You can use the 9month moving average in S5TH (spx stocks above the 200dma) to time the market cycle. Figure out the upward momentum (with help of game theory and TNX cycle). In practice and theory peoples options should be predictable because everyone act in their self-interest, seeking safety (hypothetical riskfree) and potential. I use this as an oschilator (like RSI).. above 50% reading is bull market (because more than 50% stocks above it's 200dma). This thing points to bull market to at least like 2025 summer. Worth noting that business cycle and TNX patterns are key here.
INDEX:S5THLong
by citsvar
9