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Cycle

Bitcoin cycles + logistic curve = New bull run 2023-2025 I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's price weekly logarithmic chart. Firstly, the chart examines growth and fall cycles, sometimes referred to as economic cycles or trade cycles. As you can see in my analysis, the growth cycle usually lasts approximately 150 weeks and is always longer than the fall cycle that spans out over the course of approximately 51-60 weeks. 150 bars on Bitcoin's weekly price chart, mark the beginning of the next pulse of the growth cycle that we are currently in. Everything in our life is based on cyclical patterns, especially when it comes to financial markets. If we analyze the rise and fall, we can conclude that the fall occurs faster than the growth of about three times. About logistic curve The logistic curve describes the speed of information dissemination among people. This graph describes the distribution of information in an environment. At first, an instrument is of little interest to anyone, investors are afraid of buying it, and its price fluctuates around r °. At this time, the initiated ("elite"), solely owning important information, begin to buy it, and the price slightly grows. Then the information is shared with a small circle of insiders, individual purchases grow into active buying, and the price of the instrument abruptly takes off. The general public is perplexed and can not understand what is the reason. In the third stage, news comes out and investors fearing not having time to "jump into the last car" buy up this tool that the "elite" and "proxies" are happy to sell to them at the maximum price (with joy, because at that time the "elite" there is already new information that the "elite" has taken into account, a new logistic curve in another instrument begins, or in the same, but with another sign, sales begin). The third stage is completed, when the whole society is aware of what happened, discuss everywhere, in the metro, all who could have already made There is no one to sell. The only thing that changes is the slope of the logistic curve - the information dissemination rate As a rule, 90% of bulls in high. And then the market unfolds and vice versa If you are constantly being told the same thing, then everybody knows it already. It is necessary to look not at the news If everyone around you screams the same thing, then you are in the upper zone The task of stepping back from the noise (this time it's useless overpriced NFT pictures) "WE WILL BE GOLD BEFORE THE PORN, WHILE GOLDEN IDEOLOGISTS WILL EXIST" Rothschild's "The same situation with cryptocurrencies, but this is only the beginning" Mr.EXCAVO Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
130
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
Bitcoin Buy Signal (1H)MEXC:BTCUSDT As we knew before that when IDMs got grabbed, after getting a SCOB on our structure time frame, or wait for a ChoCh on the lower time frame (which now the LTF is 5 mins chart), we can get into the position (which here is a Buy Position). And now we had a ChoCh on the 5 mins time frame on Bitcoin which allows us to open a Buy Position. P.S: Money & Risk Management is Crucial, Because nothing's certain in the market. :) I will update Bitcoin regularly, Follow me on TradingView for more. Happy trading.. Cheers, Aurio
Long
by x-Aurio
XAU/BTC - Gold and Bitcoin outlook for next 6 months ?GOLD & BITCOIN OUTLOOK for the ppl saying that TVC:GOLD is outperforming CRYPTOCAP:BTC Well... not really as you can see at a relatively big timeframe on this XAU/BTC chart what is happening now ? well XAU had a rebound mid March, making a +66% pullback, it seems a lot but as you can see during august 2020 it felt 85% ! 1. made it to the previous resistance quite hardly, first sign about the bearish approach that could arrive 2. we are now around , in fact around a very hot zone, 0.4 , if we go above, more chance to see bullish moves in this chart, meaning that Gold could go more up and/or Btc could go more down, its a weekly timeframe so, im talking about a 6 months move BUT, I think XAU/BTC will not be able to pass that resistance and will in fact go big red candles till spring 3. if you look at what happened 4 years ago just copy paste it now, you should have a view of the next 5-6 months for both assets Not saying that gold is gonna plummet and XAU/BTC will go -85% this time but it should bring it a bit down, as in august 2020 it was also going parabolic and went -20% in 6 months so yes im expecting gold to go -20% during the 6 next months and of course BTC to go UPPPPPP so if they're one thing to retain here, its that Gold seems now inversely linked to the 4 years BTC cycle ! And this is quite interesting because it means that BTC has a lot more power and influence than people think Cheers & thx for reading
TVC:XAUBTCShort
by onemorewine
1
Alikze »» ADA | Upward wave 3 scenario - 12H🔍 Technical analysis: Upward wave 3 scenario - 12H - In the analysis presented earlier in the weekly time frame, after the correction in the green box, it is currently in the range of the green box, which can continue its upward trend if it stabilizes above the green box. - In the 12-hour time frame, it is moving in an ascending channel, so far it has reacted positively to the dynamic trigger of the bottom of the channel several times. - Currently, a motivational wave has been created in the area of ​​the bottom of the channel, which can continue its advance until the middle of the channel and the supply area. 💎 According to the previous zigzag movements, the recent correction in the bottom of the channel has been a response to the AB=CD movement cycle. ⚠️In addition, if the Invalidation LVL area is touched, the ascending scenario is invalidated and must be updated again.⚠️ »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:ADAUSDT
Long
by alikze
Platinum: Little Consolidation (Wave 4); Golden RatioWe can see a very well defined cycle, and wave 1 to 3 already created. This new cycle could be a consolidation, the price can drop to 14,6% or 23,6% level. Or even in the middle between 38,2% and 23,6%, where other wicks has already touched, creating a support, where can also occur the last candle of Wave 4. Open interest in NYMEX:PL1! is falling and the major trend rising, it can occur a reverse, and this reverse will be the Wave 4. RSI left the Overbought level, followed by a failure swing, resulting in continued decline of the indicator. After the peak $1,016.45, ADX is losing strength while DMI+ has a high probability of changing position with DMI-.
CAPITALCOM:PLATINUM
by AFCapital21
Rule of 160: History Predicts Start Of Bull-Run This Week!In this analysis I want to take a closer look at previous bull-cycles and Bitcoin's behaviour in the months following the halving. The vertical yellow line is the date of the halving. The purple rectangle is the price action of the 160 days following the halving. We can very clearly see a few interesting similarities between the last three cycles: - The price pumps prior to the halving. - The price trades sideways for 160 days after the halving. - The "real" bull-run starts after the sideways price action has ended. If we follow the Rule of 160, the start of the next big bull-run would be somewhere around 27 september, which is this week! I'm aware that market conditions are different now than they were back then. Still, BTC is a very cyclical asset and has historically followed calendar based trends. There's data to suggest that we have to come down (check my previous posts), but there's also data like this that suggests that the price will increase. Time will tell. Interested to hear your opinions!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
10
Return of Volatility IndexesIt's September 18 2024 10:51pm EST, just another Wednesday. Elections are creeping up and Chinese (HSI) markets are sparking uptrend. Somehow, American volatility indexes are evidently setting up for what appears to be a big return to the upside. Perhaps only a rare few have captured it? Who knows, but the cycles don't lie and neither do the high timeframe supercycles, which imply a reversal is overdue for the volatility indexes, including UVXY (ETF), VXX(ETN), and VIX and their corresponding denominations, just to name a few. In any event, it would be fair to say that after today's close and going forward, these volatility indexes are ready for takeoff. The catalysts are not exactly clear, though. Election alone can't spark them, and if Covid triggered the last significant run, what's next? This, only time will tell, but the 'vola' indexes are nonetheless ready for takeoff.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by JuanLagos94
1
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Nvidia - A Correction Of -50% Is Starting!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is reversing at a strong resistance: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Last month Nvidia already corrected about -35% but managed to close with an indecision doji candle. However, previous cycles, the recent rally of +1.000% and the fact that Nvidia is retesting a strong resistance trendline all suggest that Nvidia will still move much lower soon. Levels to watch: $100, $55 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
27
Why is this technically a mini bear market?We find a bottom every December, usually after the election if there was a downtrend we had a collapse, like 2018 and 2022, it wasn't the Presidential election but it was the US Midterm elections. So maybe we should expect a good October, but it's quite possible that right after the election around November 10 we could have a collapse. Maybe the market will react to Kamala's victory or something else. So you can see from the RSI how cycles work, and the current cycle that started in 2023 on January 1 will end in 2025 on January 1, we had 15 months of bull market, and 9 months of bear market. So I think that on January 1, 2025 we will start a new cycle, which may well last until the end of 2026.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ohueno
BITCOIN - Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles combined with DataIf you look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin and examine the three previous cycles in crypto, you can see where we currently stand. This doesn’t guarantee that we’ll go up from here, but it does show that the chart often follows a similar pattern every cycle. Price movements are a universal phenomenon seen across all charts in various sectors, not just crypto. Often, you’ll notice an asset testing its all-time high (ATH) and then taking a “breath.” After that, the asset typically moves beyond its ATH and embarks on a bullish journey. The market tends to become more greedy once it surpasses the ATH because it means everyone in the market is in profit. Of course, it depends on what you bought, but the principle remains the same. I see a lot of people worried about where we’re headed next. Nothing is for certain, but stop reading the news and worrying about recessions. England and Germany are currently in recessions and have just broken their ATHs. Recessions have nothing to do with price action. Many are also concerned that the markets will crash once the rate cut season starts, which is highly likely to occur in September. However, historical data suggests otherwise. If you look back 70 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% return one year after the first rate cut. By using data and following cycles, like the one below and the 18.6-year real estate and economic cycle, it becomes much easier to handle the drawdowns and negativity you hear around you. Using Fibonacci retracement, I believe we could see a top for Bitcoin around $150-200K before the next bear market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WealthNode
Bitcoin Is Perfectly On Track This CycleIn this analysis I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's current bull-cycle and compare it with the previous cycles. I count from December 2011 onwards. As seen on the chart, the first cycle (yellow) is an outlier in both duration and growth. We will likely never experience something like that again. The most interesting cycles to compare the current cycle to ar the second (blue) and the third (purple). As Bitcoin matures as an asser, it will likely experience diminishing returns. In other words; lower total gains from bear bottom to bull top. However, cycle 4 is outperforming both previous cycles at their respective times. The most logical explanation would be that we had the BTC Spot ETF this year, which caused massive bullish pressure from institutional investors. Chances are that we have to endure a couple more neutral/bearish months in order to get below the blue and purple lines before we can see any substantial growth to >100k. All in all, this cycle is on track with the previous cycles. If it were to follow the last two, we can expect BTC to top somewhere in the last quarter of 2025. Happy to hear your thoughts!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
4
Weak Dollar And Bullish Technicals Signal For Higher BitcoinAfter some initial recession fears spurred by the NFP report showing higher unemployment (4.3%) at the start of Avugust, stocks have bounced back up as last week’s retail sales data indicates the economy isn’t as bad as feared. CPI figures have also helped stabilize the markets, and with the FED potentially closer to cutting rates in September, the stock market may continue higher. Now that stocks are back to bullish mode, we can see a strong risk-on sentiment that can push stocks even higher, while USDollar will most likely stay under bearish pressure along with US Yields, which can help Crypto market to stay in the bullish trend. So this time we want to update an interesting weekly BITCOIN technical chart we have been tracking for the last two years. Notice that back in 2023, bitcoin broke out of a downtrend channel and then retested it as a support, followed by a rise above 50-week Moving Average, which interestingly, also held as a support. Since then price turned higher, and start forming some extended structures since the beginning of 2024. Now in the second part of 2024 we got some slowdown after touching 80k, but it clearly looks like a corrective and sideways price movement within uptrend, that once again retested 50-week MA support, also with nice bullish hammer candlestick formation. That said, be aware of a bullish continuation into the end of 2024.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ew-forecast
Euribor cycle analysisYou know fiat currencies that are not pegged to anything they say but is it really true… Isn't fiat tied to the people in dept, families with mortgages, isn't that what keeps it stable, right? If this is correct, doesn't that mean that in the big picture, the interest rate cycle is all that matters if you want to understand the economy. I believe so. But that's not all, I've noticed something funny. Do you want to see? Try calculating the dates between bottoms, the cycle length actually doubles each cycle, each cycle comes at the right time... how is that even possible? Can we now look to the future? Is everything written in the stars or in someone's book.. Or am I just crazy? Maybe both, but either way, I think the chart is trying to tell us that there's going to be an AI/robotics-driven super cycle that lasts until 2056, with everyone running cheap money. What do you think is the "cause" of the depression of 2056. Maybe the robots will go to strike and the AI ​​will turn hostile? But wait, what is cause and what is cause, or is there just a cycle that causes everything? Forget it... it's better not to think too much. Watch TV or go for a walk.
ICEEUR:I1!Long
by Lm424LRs8CNEAk