Get started

Cycle

BTC Analysis of Seasonal Trends in Financial MarketsThe first and simple indicator from Shark Trading is now publicly available, along with a lecture on the advantages of using the seasonal indicator. You can also find it on the Tradingview portal and support it with a like: Dear Traders! The seasonal indicator is a powerful analytical tool that helps you better understand the market and make more informed decisions. It not only provides visual representation of various seasonal changes but also helps identify patterns and trends that may go unnoticed in regular analysis. An important feature of this indicator is the ability to customize the color scheme and transparency for each season, as well as choosing between the southern or northern hemisphere. This allows you to tailor the indicator to your preferences and analytical needs. With the seasonal indicator, you'll be able to: 1. Gain a better understanding of the current market state: Displaying seasonal changes helps you better orient yourself in the current market position and identify potential trading opportunities. 2. Identify trends and cyclicality: Analyzing seasonal changes allows you to identify recurring patterns and cycles in the market, helping to forecast its future movement. 3. Optimize trading: Knowing seasonal trends enables you to optimize your trading strategy and make more reasoned decisions about entering and exiting trades. 4. Improve analytical skills: Working with the seasonal indicator helps you develop your analytical skills and improve your understanding of the market. We invite you to read a more detailed article about this indicator and try using it in practice. This tool can become an invaluable assistant in your trading and help you reach new heights in your trading career. Don't miss the opportunity to improve your results - study and apply the seasonal indicator today! ______________________________________________________ Hello, dear traders! In this trading idea, we will present an overview of the seasonal indicator. The seasonal indicator settings allow you to change the color and transparency of each season, as well as have the function of selecting the hemisphere - southern or northern. In addition, this indicator includes an additional trend indicator that displays the direction of price movement. In accordance with the color coding: - Winter is denoted by blue color. - Summer is represented by green color. - Autumn is denoted by orange color. - Spring is denoted by yellow color. All elements on the chart of a certain color will be attributed to the corresponding season. For example, trend lines or levels marked in blue will be associated with the winter season. ______________________________________________________ Winter Explanation of price movement in winter: 1. Number 1 and the blue line denote the maximum price of Bitcoin. Note that they always form at highs, which is consistent. 2. Number 2 and the blue line denote the minimum price specifically in the winter period. This is indeed the price minimum and the low point in the cycle. 3. Number 3 and the blue line denote a local maximum after which the price begins to rise towards line number 1, which acts as a global resistance. 4. Number 4 denotes the last winter cycle before breaking the global maximum. It should be noted that in 2017, the resistance was not broken immediately - first in the spring, and then at the beginning of 2018, the maximum was set and the asset's growth occurred in winter. Additionally, it is worth noting that numbers 1 form the maximum, numbers 2 form the minimum, and since the trend is descending, its line is marked in blue. ______________________________________________________ Summer Now let's consider the price behavior chart for the summer. To make the situation clearer, I've left a descending trend in blue on the graph. I reiterate, elements shown in green on the graph specifically pertain to the summer period. 1. Number 1 on the graph denotes the first summer period! The price during this period remains within a narrow range 90% of the time; however, it's worth noting that impulsive movements can occur at the beginning, middle, or end. Thus, 90% of the time, the price is in a low volatility zone, while the remaining percentage is in a high volatility zone. 2. Number 2 on the graph represents the second summer period, where a pattern is observed: the price tends to rise at the beginning of the summer period and fall towards the end. Therefore, I've marked this time with an arc, and there's a pattern to it. It's worth noting that during the period of the descending trend from 2014 to 2016, the situation after the downward trend differs from the situation in 2018 and 2023, when changes in the arrangement of this situation occur after the breakout of the descending trend based on wave analysis and the price of the asset itself. 3. Number 3 represents the third summer period! During this period, the price movement direction is upward and then downward, forming a correction in the upward trend. It should be noted that in this movement, all lows gradually rise, while highs renew all previous local highs of the asset price. This period exhibits increased volatility and impulsive movements, with the asset price mostly staying within a range of minimal volatility, with volatility not exceeding 1-2% on some stretches. 4. Under number 4, the fourth summer period is indicated, which has an overall upward direction. In this period, the movement is aggressively upward. Starting from the first month until the middle of summer, the price moves downward, forming a correction in the upward trend. Then, during the next month, the price moves aggressively upward, renewing price highs. Volatility in this period is anomalously high, resembling a hot July summer. Additionally, based on the price movement in the summer period, we can assume that fractals are evident here, which we can use to our advantage for profit. ______________________________________________________ Shark Trading - We invite you to read a more detailed article about this indicator and try using it in practice. This tool can become an invaluable assistant in your trading and help you reach new heights in your trading career. Don't miss the opportunity to improve your results - study and apply the seasonal indicator today!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SHARK1318
CORE SEEMS TO ENTER A NEW BUILDING TREND (CYCLE)Based on our study, CORE appears to be experiencing a significant upward trend, suggesting potential for further growth. CORE is showing interesting indicates data trends both technically and in terms of data analysis. we will follow its progress to see if it reaches the $1.11 mark soon. we will continue to monitor CORE for any new updates. The current cycle for this coin cycle began at $0.58 and it's already gaining traction. note that this update is not trading advice.
Long
by SatochiTrader
1
🔥 Bitcoin In The Biggest Bull-Run Since 2016? Let's Discuss!Bitcoin has been performing exceptionally well over the last months. This cycle is the first cycle where Bitcoin has made a new all-time high (ATH) before the halving, instead of after. The most likely cause for this are the massive ETF inflows which boosted the price to new highs. Historically, Bitcoin has always peaked in Q4 of the next year after the halving. In this case, it would mean that BTC will peak in Q4 of 2025. Seeing that we're already at 70k in Q1 of 2024, this could lead to some issues. There's a few possible outcomes and explanations that I want to share. 1: This cycle will be similar to 2016 and we will continue to go up in a relatively stable straight line until Q4 of 2025. Bitcoin could reach >300k because of the continued buying power from ETF's. 2: This cycle is outperforming the past cycles, which is not possible due to diminishing returns theory (bull and bear markets will be less extreme). Considering that we "should" top in Q4 of 2025, we will see a long period of sideways/bearish price action in order to get the white line under the blue and purple lines. Top will be in Q4 of 2025, but a lot lower. Think 150k. 3: Diminishing returns theory will hold, but we will top much earlier than Q4 2025. In another analysis that I recently made I discussed the fact that BTC on average tops 40 weeks after a new all-time high has been made. This would lead to a cycle top in Q4 of 2024. With Diminishing returns still in play I'd guess we can top somewhere between 100k-150k. It's going to be interesting to see which historically accurate theories will be broken this cycle, seeing that this is the first time that BTC made a new ATH before the halving. Best case scenario would be a long cycle with a price as high as possible. What is your view on a new ATH before the halving? Which scenario do you deem most likely? Share your thoughts.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
16
Bitcoin CyclesEach Bitcoin boom has ended in about 85% draw down in 2014 and in 2017. Right now the drawdown is at 75% for the 2021 cycle. If we see a similar drawdown of 85% it will be at around ~10000. My guess is that will not happen and that our current 75% draw down is what we will get this cycle but if we get a drawdown to the low teens I'll be backing up the money truck. Each Bitcoin ATH to cycle low has been 89 weeks and 52 weeks respectively. If this is the current cycle's low then that puts it at 61 weeks as marked on the chart, which is between 89 and 52. If the boom and bust cycles continue due to the halvings I'm betting this is the bottom. Each Bitcoin previous ATH to breaking that ATH is marked on the chart. They are 168 weeks and 154 weeks respectively. If we take the average of that we can expect this cycle to take 161 weeks to work out. This puts it around May of 2024 right around the current predicted halving date. RSI is slated for a breakout around the end of the year - we could see a mini cycle like we did in the summer of 2019 after this break. My current prediction is that this is the time to be aggressively dollar cost averaging. I will be buying each week until my powder is dry and if we complete an 85% drawdown I will be going all in.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by malacus
3
GOLD, big things are taking placeWelcome everyone, GOLD made a lot of weird moves in the past weeks and is still not showing a clear direction at all. Beside the strong bullish trend, there was a massive sell of from the ATH and we are close to an important decision. As you can see in orange the price tested the upper boundary of the consolidation range for the 4th time and got rejected, but it's back for another attempt. To make clear why this is important: The consolidation took years and the price range is massive, a break above 2080 would open a lot of new higher targets and a significant bull run should start from there. On the other hand a rejection and sell of below 1980 should send the price lower in a 2nd wave according to the elliot wave theory, which price targets would be 1920,1900 and even 18xx levels. I will keep this idea updated, so if you like to follow, welcome here :)
FX:XAUUSD
by Kyrean
BITCOIN, is the ETF approval a sell on the news event?Welcome back, some times it's nice to just browse through the charts and find interesting patterns. There is no guaranty that chart history repeats it self, but, there is a chance to. In this chart I'm observing a pullback to 20k-30k area for the bitcoin in case the ETF approval which everyone is waiting for within the start of 2024 will be a sell on the news event. First of all, I am absolutely bullish on BTC within the next years. But at this stage of trend I don't want to get in a long position anymore. There had been many chances earlier this year and the risk of profit taking is too high now. Also the fundamentals are already anticipated from the market for weeks now. What can you see on the chart? Most important are the orange lines, marking the bottoms of a cycle. With purple lines I marked the most significant price actions, just every 12,5% for the actual cycle and 25% for the past cycle. The price reacted similar in both cycles and IF history wants to repeat itself, we could see a very long correctional movement starting from around 48-50k back down to 20-30k. Obviously you can't make good trades on the weekly chart, so this is just for observation and it's important to find structures on lower time frames to confirm the move. Let me know what you think about Bitcoin. All opinions are respected here :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Kyrean
18
New cycle beginsBitcoin is turning bullish on a weekly basis for the first time after a deep red bear market phase. This is a huge signal and usually indicates the beginning of the next cycle. I have marked the deep red phase in purple and the first weekly signal with an arrow on the chart. This is the first phase of the cycle, so I would not expect any crazy end-of-cycle moves. But for now, dips should be a gift from heaven. In the past we have seen 30-50% corrections within the cycle. So we need to be prepared for that as BTC approaches and breaks its ath. We will have to figure out the target during the next year but I think it will be 6 digits.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by koryu
1
BTC This cycle might actually be different.Bitcoin this cycle looks completely different than any previous one. We have never in the past gone up so high before the halving. There is no saying what BTC will do if we brake ATH pre-halving. Also the price mostly is driven by retail and ETF's no institutional buys yet. Google searches for "BTC" "Bitcoin" "Crypto" is still almost at all time lows. When we try to chart, from now on DO NOT LOOK AT THE PAST CYCLES. It will mislead you. Also indicators will try to screw us soon, so focusing on using more advanced tools than basic RSI will be needed. One advice - Learn to you Bookmap to understand what and how to follow BTC on there.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Achilly
8
STG( STARGATE ) CAN ENTER NEW ALL TIME HIGH $5 SOON!Thanks for reading this update. We expect that there is a high chance that STG will enter $5, since the confirmation for the cycle trend. STG can show unexpected targets. We will follow this coin for new ATH We have made this study exactly on the way of WLD. We did check the previous coins that made the same increase effect, the same data we used on STG for the high possibility. > There is a building trend making on STG. For the cycle trend, we don't check the low time frame, since the real trend is the main trend. The cycle activation is done on STG and will follow the trend of it. For day updates and low time frames check this update:
Long
by SatochiTrader
30
BTC is dumping fast.Bitcoin, like any other asset, can experience price fluctuations driven by various factors, including market sentiment, news events, regulatory changes, and technological developments. Some individuals may seek to exploit these fluctuations for profit through strategies such as quick dumps (selling off large amounts of Bitcoin rapidly) and buying when prices are perceived to be low. Here are some motivations and opportunities associated with such strategies: Volatility: Bitcoin is known for its price volatility, which can create opportunities for traders to profit from short-term price movements. Quick dumps and buying cheap can be strategies employed to take advantage of these fluctuations. Arbitrage: Differences in Bitcoin prices across different exchanges or markets can create arbitrage opportunities. Traders may exploit these price differentials by buying Bitcoin where it's cheaper and selling where it's more expensive, profiting from the price spread. Market Timing: Traders may attempt to time the market by selling Bitcoin during periods of high prices (quick dumps) and buying when prices are low. This strategy involves predicting price movements based on technical analysis, market trends, or fundamental factors. Scalping: Scalping is a trading strategy where traders aim to profit from small price changes by executing a large number of trades within a short time frame. Traders employing this strategy may engage in quick dumps and buying cheap to capture small profits repeatedly. Risk Management: Some investors may use quick dumps to manage risk by selling a portion of their Bitcoin holdings when they perceive the market to be overvalued or when they anticipate a price decline. They may then buy back at lower prices to increase their Bitcoin holdings. It's important to note that while these strategies offer potential profit opportunities, they also come with significant risks. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and unpredictable, and trading strategies based on short-term price movements can result in substantial losses if not executed carefully. Additionally, regulatory changes, technological vulnerabilities, and market manipulation are factors that can impact the success of such trading strategies. Therefore, individuals considering engaging in these activities should conduct thorough research, use proper risk management techniques, and consider consulting with financial professionals.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TrojanBible
This cycle pattern on AUD/JPY hints at risk onAUD/JPY is holding above its 100-day EMA, and so far it looks like the spike lower last Thursday will be left unchallenged. This is more of an interesting observation than anything else, but... since July AUD/JPY has printed a prominent spike / higher low every 40 - 47 days. If that pattern is to hold, is suggests the next trough could land at the end of May / beginning of April. Given it is a proxy for risk, does this support a Wall Street rally which currently sits just off if its record highs? Growth outlook remains positive, inflation is falling and the BOJ are unlikely to shift away from an ultra-dovish policy. As long as any currency gains against the yen are not too aggressive, perhaps AUD/JPY is looking at another crack at 98. Although a feature of this 40-47 day cycle is for gains to be erratic and choppy before producing a sudden selloff into its spike low.
Long
by CityIndex
BTC ON THE WAY TO 48K WITH THIS CYCLE TRENDThanks for reading this update. BTC seems to enter an important volume where we expect that BTC have a high chance of breaking the 48K soon. Remember. There is not way that is going directly to trend, BTC will play all possible trends to go to the goal. The trend is your friend. 44K is a key level and same time a break level for new volume which will make the trend bullish. Our data shows us that the possibility that BTC will break is high. BTC has been since OCT 2023 in a cycle trend that still is active. We did expect before the breakdown of BTC with the same data to below 40K And with the same data we did expect before the increase below 40K to 43K The new update shows an expected 44K which still is running. BTC plays in zones, the best way is the turtle way with following the right trend This is not trading advice and guarantee for the trend.
Long
by SatochiTrader
9
Are we here or there?CRYPTOCAP:BTC is looking very strong on the weekly however we are early in the cycle. Some simple ideas here. 0.618 retrace level is broken pre halving which is a surprise that would have caused many to be sidelined. I think it is unlikely the market will let them back in anytime soon especially given the strong ETF inflows. Ongoing the trend will be Up when trad-fi markets are open, sideways when they are closed until the inflows decrease. Spot is driving the markets so open interest and funding rates become less important. Any pullbacks will be mostly on weekends and short-lived to wash out overleveraged longs and provide liquidity on the buy side for the big funds. Very bullish until I see a strong signal to oppose this. Things to keep an eye on is an influx of retail froth, a rotation to alts, Strong macro/tradfi headwinds and the usual suite of on-chain tools i'e whales selling, LTH taking profit at high levels. This cycle as we have only seen retraces of %20ish o far it hasn't really be worth trying to time pullbacks in my eyes unlike previous cycles where they were often %40-%50. This gives further credence to the bullish narrative. Hold on, enjoy the ride, set targets and take profits when you start feeling emotional.
Long
by Mrgalaxy
1
The Abnormality Within Bitcoins Current CycleHello, My Friends, I hope everybody of you is doing well in today's market-environment and welcome to this analysis about bitcoins current cycle movement. There are some important signs and worthwhile indications I made which also play a big role within the current corona crisis and therefore the logical consequences the crisis is playing for the cryptocurrency-space. First of all it has to be mentioned that most countries in this world currently note a decline in their economic growth because of the hard corona-measures, therefore, we can see a recession declining price-action in the stock-markets and the normal economic-markets like car-industry or luxury-industry but this fact does not necessarily mean the cryptocurrency is in a bear market or a bull market, I already pointed out in recent analysis that we are still consolidating in the middle-term and that the next weeks and months will show us where the journey is bringing us. People who say that this or that scenario happen 1000% for sure can't be right, we have to look on the possibilities taking place in the markets and elevate ourselves above mere speculation, therefore, it is important to watch the chart as detached as possible and don't set a final-result as the only possible solution defined, volatile markets can show massive turns in the indicators used from day to another. I recommend that you read the whole analysis to have a full-depth perspective of the current situation. In the crisis right now there are anticyclical investments like gold, pharmaceutics, food, and armor-industry! These fields are not influenced by the hard corona-measures, therefore, it is possible and not to be dismissed by hand that bitcoin plays into the anticyclical investments we have in this economic decline. I don't want to say right now that it is 100% the fact but what we can say is that bitcoin is not affected like the stock market and is not cyclical with the stock-market we saw this in recent bitcoin-bear-markets where bitcoin declined and the stock market increased. What is the importance now also when looking at my chart-picture is that we have a 4-years cycle in bitcoin similar to a normal economic cycle. Bitcoins cycle consists of three phases once it is the expansion, the second is growth and the third is a contraction, the normal economic cycle in the real economic consists of 4 phases. Because bitcoin is not like the normal economy we have a different cycle-movement similar to gold. The abnormality within the current cycle is defined by the hard corona-breakdown seen in the last weeks before we had this slow slow stabilization, it also affected other markets as stocks as well. The volatility was seen in this breakdown to the downside was not normal and we have never seen such a fast and heavy decline in bitcoin, also the situation right now that people do not leave their houses and have to stay inside, etc has been never seen since before, it is a completely new environment with other difficult problems we never saw in the crisis before. Bitcoin 4-Year Economic Cycle When we watch the chart closely now we see that bitcoin completed a full cycle in 4.04 years (can be rounded up to four years) that are 1477 days, in this phase bitcoin reached a new All-Time-High and peaked you can see the cycles marked in my chart, also the cycle is building a coherent structure with the underlying sine-curve. The problem in the current cycle is that we should do a new peak within the next cycle-ending time this will be in 2021. Also, we have a definite end where the bear-market is confirmed and a heavy contraction-phase to the downside sets in this is when we cross the lower black-support-line which you can see in my cyclical-picture. We need to see things now as they are and do not get too attached to wild irrational ideas that leading nowhere, therefore it is necessary to see bitcoin detached from the stock-market as an independent financial-instrument. When we establish to hold above the black-line we can see a possible second growth-phase within the 4-year cycle, in this case, we have to stabilize a minimum above 9000 and look at other mid-to-long-term indicators indicating the price-action of next weeks and months. Also my friends, we have seen the heavy decline because of the corona-fears coming in and affecting all markets but these first fears are over what comes now is the recession in many countries which are the consequences of the corona. This causes stocks to decline further because the economy is decreasing but that does not necessarily affect cryptocurrency, it can also be used as a hedge like pharmaceutics or armory which are seen as hedges in the classical stock-market of today's crisis. So my friends thank you for watching my analysis, I hope everybody of you could get some important insight and where the journey will bring us the next time, feel free to support, thanks for everybody who is supporting, my friends. As I always say it is the motivation to transform opportunities into gold remains the most significant tool for a trader. this is why we should take the market seriously and make the best of every situation. ;) FAREWELL Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
29
NEARUSDT OPEN NEW CYCLE PEROID DEPENDING ON THIS STUDY $12Thanks for reading this update. NEARUSDT seems to open a new cycle trend, this cycle trend can give NEARUSDT an unexpected break. we see that some positions are confirmed for the trend. We did expect before in the same way the Cylc increase of BTC. know that Cycles entering with building positions, and we did scan some of them. Let's see how this will affect the price action soon. For the day trading time frames, we checking NEARUSDT for 18%+ trend Soon more updates. This will stay a prediction depending on our data, and not trading advice. This is our view, which means not that you should follow it. trade only depending on your plan. here will be soon updates, the same as BTC did get updates to 48K.
Long
by SatochiTrader
8