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Cycle

[Gann Theory]There be any cycle in the stock market? Absolutely, the answer is yes, but we can't apply a simple and fixed model to all stock markets. Each stock market is an independent viberation with its own cycle and development laws. Therefore, the cycle and law of the stock market will be introduced before presenting the text of this book. Since the 1900's, economists in western countries have engaged in the study the law of the cycle, and all believed that there was a long-term law in the economic growth or recession. There is noting new thing under the sun. In 1930, the American economist S. Kuznets proposed a business cycle applying to housing construction, with an average length of 20 years. This long-term cycle is known as the "Kuznets" cycle, or building cycle. C Juglar, a French economist, published his Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In this book, he pointed out that the capitalist economy fluctuated every nine to ten years, as generally called "Juglar cycle". Joseph Schumpeter took this as the "medium-term cycle", or the "Juglar cycle". Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that the most statistically reliable cycles were 9.2 years and 3.83 years. He was also the founder of many institutions studying the cycles. Edward R. Dewey (1895-1978) dedicated his life to study the cycles (not limited to the business cycle) and in 1931, he was appointed as the Chief Economic Analyst by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Trying to find the cause of the Great Depression in 1929 and 1930 in the United States, Edward R. Dewey established the Foundation for the Study of Cycles in Pittsburgh in 1940. The following are some graphs about the cycles proposed by Edward. Business cycles can be categorized into long-term, medium-term and short-term ones. You may ask, is there any business cycle in the stock market or the economy? Let's begin with the stock market cycle and then we will talk about the real estate cycle. The 30-year cycle is one of the cores of Gann's cycle theory. When making a prediction, the 30-year cycle can be divided in further, including the following different cycles. • 30-year cycle • 22.5-year cycle - (360 X6/8) • 15-year cycle - (360X4/8) • 10-year cycle - (360X1/3) • 7.5-year cycle - (360X2/8) If this 30-year cycle is applied to calculate the stock market cycle, you will get an amazing discovery. For example, Hong Kong's stock market crash in 1987 followed with another one 7.5 years later, namely in 1994, because of the upsurge of red chip speculation by foreign investors in 1993 and the United States' increase of the interest rates for 7 successive times. 15 years later, around the year of 2002 and 2003, the stock market underwent a huge decline because of the outbreak of avian influenza. In 2009, namely 22.5 years after that, HSI hit the bottom as a consequence of the financial tsunami. When it came to 2017, exactly 30 years later, HSI witnessed a depreciation in 2018 after experiencing the bull market. When the 30-year cycle is applied to Shanghai securities composite index, there will also come something incredible. As shown in the chart below, the first peak after the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange occurred in May 1992. Following Gann's 30-year cycle, another peak appeared in the half of 1999, exactly 7.5 years later. 15 years later, the year of 2007 witnessed the climax of the bull market. After 22.5 years, the year of 2014 marked the starting point of the bull market in 2015. It is thought that the year of 2022, 30 years later, will be another high or low point. Just as the old chinese sayings go that "both people and things undergo great changes in a decade", "gold may become worthless in a decade" and "we cannot predict what will happen in a decade and don't laugh at poor people wearing rags". These sayings point out the essence of the 10-year cycle. Juglar proposed that there was a 9 to 10 years' cyclical fluctuation for the market economy in his book Business Crisis and Cycle in France, Britain and the United States in 1862. In Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, Samuel T Benner stated that the highest point of trade price followed a repeated 8-9-10-year pattern. The 10-year cycle also plays an important role in Gann Theory. ericresearch.org Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 120 Months Take Shanghai securities composite index as an example. After reaching a low point of 998 in 2005, the high point of the bull market appeared in 2015, 120 months (ten years) later. After the low point of 1,664 in October 2008, another lowest point came in 2018, 121 months later. Shanghai Securities Composite Index with a Cycle of 52 Weeks The above chart shows that the Shanghai securities composite index also subjects itself to a 52-week cycle. In the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index, the time interval between the peak in October 2007 and the low point is 52 weeks. After that, there will be return in every 52 weeks, either the peak or the bottoming out of the market index. Let's see the weekly column chart of the Shanghai securities composite index and take "7" weeks as a cycle. It is found that from the high point of 2015, there is a relative turn in a cycle of 7 weeks or its multiples, namely 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63 and 70. Is this a coincidence or an accident for the above change in the stock market? Now, one question. Whether the movement in the stock market is driven by events or the high and low points at the previous time point (cycle)? Therefore, China's stock market proceeds in a cyclical way. The turning point can be predicted as long as the right starting point can be realized. There is also a cycle for real estate. Although economists all over the world hold different opinions towards the research of the real estate market, but they serve the same effect. I will state the opinions of the following economists for your reference. ·Michael Hoyt, the author of One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, studied the price of real estate in Chicago in a time period of 103 years since there were only dozens of wooden houses, and he found that its price cycles about every 18 years. ·Edward R. Deway, known as the father of cycle analysis, believed that each real estate cycle lasts for about 18 years. ·Fred Harrison, a British economist studying the real estate market in the Britain and United States in the past 200-plus years, found that the housing price cycled about every 18 years. ·Simon Smith Kuznets believed that the building cycle is 15 to 20 years. It is coincidentally acknowledged that the real estate market cycles every 18 to 20 years. Starting from 1965, it is generally believed that the real estate market in Hong Kong has gone through three major cycles, the first cycle from 1965 to 1981; the second one from 1981 to 1997; and the third one from 1997 to now. The housing price often goes up or down along with the change of both internal and external elements. I have mentioned the Hong Kong real estate market cycle in different situations. It is not difficult to draw a conclusion from the cycle of Hong Kong's real estate market that the cycle works every six years. Since 1997, great changes occur every six years, including 2003, 2009, 2015, and 2021. With Gann's 50% segmentation method, we can get that three years constitute a secondary cycle, namely in 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018. The change of the real estate market can also be concluded with the 18-year cycle, which has worked since 1985. Undoubtedly, the real estate market in Hong Kong goes up after experiencing the lowest point in 2003. Predicably, that the year of 2021 is likely to witness the completion of an 18-year cycle. Stepping back again, the rise of the real estate market in 2003 can be explained with the 6-year cycle mentioned above since the signing of the Sino-British Joint Declaration in 1985. It is likely that the upsurge of Hong Kong's real estate market will end in 2021, and then we should turn to the turning point that may appear from 2023 to 2024. Youtube: www.youtube.com Book: www.amazon.com
TVC:DJIEducation
by ericresearchgann
2
Bitcoin: A realistic scenario.So, here we are, after 4 months, bitcoin is back on the 30k area, but this time it's not after a 10x bull movement, but after a 50% correction. So the question we all thought about was: Is this scary? Short answer: No. I expect this cycle to choose between 2 posibilities. 1. We hit 300k in this year (IMO the least likely scenario). 2. We hit 100k in Q4 2021 - Q1 2022. Why i think this cycle will last longer? Im not the first to say this, but if you look at the past, bitcoin cycles tend to be longer than past cycles. Following this theory, (which so far has not been proven wrong at least), i expect actual bitcoin price to be a consolidation phase, maybe even a few months. Key months i should say, as we were going too fast, and so far we had not seen any major correction since the cycle started. Corrections are necessary, healthy, and nothing to worry about. If you are scared about a correction, take a step back and look at the big picture. I strongly don't believe we are experiencing the start of a bear market, and i dont expect 65k to be the cycle top. Last 50% correction happened in march 2020, and it was followed by a 2000% run. So i have my head clear, and take this scenario like a challenge. It's HODL or death at this point. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: As it's clear in the graphic, the RSI last few months showed a bearish divergence (higher prices with lower strenght each time). The price showed a lot of respect to this divergence, as it hasn't been broke yet. In my opinion, we will test it again, maybe soon (300k this year) or after a few months of consolidation (100k this year), the later the most chances of breaking it we have. So, time is on our side . If we test it and got rejected (most likely to happen if we test it soon) i expect a fall back to the 30k area (25k zone like the worst scenario). Im not financial advisor, but IMO selling now is a bad choice. I will hold and buy more if price goes lower. Have a good day and let me know your thoughts.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by M-Ivan
2
The case of the 1.7 trillion mk XRPFirst of all you will say that this one is unreal, there is no chance for this to happen. Yes, chances are low but its not impossible. I am not sure if you where at the floor when BTC crashed and XRP made some huge gains in a couple of days. So did BCH as well, and the news were full with headlines like "BCH will takes the first place from BTC because its much better" Everyone jumped into buying then the whole crypto market just crashed! General trading rules says: Buy low sell high, buy undervalued assets sell overvalued assets. Think about it, if you ask any crypto evangelists they will say XRP is shit, its not a crypto so on. Then they will enter the market when they see the price mooning and they will start to FOMO. It's all about pshychology. This thing to happen requires a lot of money. We had nearly trillion dollars on the market when we peaked few weeks ago. Half of it can make Ripple as a specex rocket if large speculators will make this huge move. I am not saying that it will happen, but daydreaming is not illegal. Nobody though that BTC will crash to 30k, exepct few one. Think about it! Have a great weekend you all! Join our community until its free! (But it's not mandatory!) community.protradersnetwork.com
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by tmsarn
7
[UPDATE BTC] THE LENGTH CYCLE THEORY: WHEN WILL THE END COME? ANOTHER SCENARIO HERE. FIRST OF ALL, YOU CAN SEE FROM THE VOLUMES AND THE LENGTH CYCLE THAT WE ARE NOT AT THE END OF THE BULL. CURRENTLY WE ARE IN LINE WITH THE THIRD CYCLE. THE CORRECT APPLICATION OF THE LENGHT CYCLE SUGGESTS DECREASING RETURNS AND A LONGER TIMELINE TO REACH THE TOP. HOWEVER, I SEE THREE SCENARIOS HERE, COMBINED WITH OTHER TECHNICAL STUDIES: A) CONSOLIDATION UNTIL JULY AND THEN BTC REACHES THE TOP DURING THE END OF SEPT. THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE STOCK TO FLOW MODEL, THE HALVING THEORY AND THE CONCENTRIC FIBONACCI INDICATOR. IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THE LENGTH CYCLE (BTC REACHES THE TOP BEFORE CYCLE 3) B) CONSOLIDATION UNTIL AUG AND THEN BTC REACHES THE TOP DURING THE END OF NOV. THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE STOCK TO FLOW MODEL. IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THE HALVING THEORY, THE CONCENTRIC FIBONACCI INDICATOR AND THE LENGTH CYCLE (BTC REACHES THE TOP IN LINE WITH CYCLE 3) B) CONSOLIDATION UNTIL JAN AND THEN BTC REACHES THE TOP DURING THE END OF MAY. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT FOLLOW THE STOCK TO FLOW MODEL, THE HALVING THEORY AND THE CONCENTRIC FIBONACCI INDICATOR. IT FOLLOWS THE LENGTH CYCLE (BTC REACHES THE TOP AFTER THE CYCLE 3) Let me know what you think. I LIKE A AND C.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Homocryptus
2
BTC is playing this pattern. 20-30k to 144k by EOYWyckoff distribution being played candle by candle. It's like sorcery, the price action is following Wyckoff distribution. So BTC may hit a 20-30k as lowest low being 64k a top in the MID term. BTC may do another final top as high as 144k by November 2021; repeating somehow 2013 cycle. On the other hand this cycle may be prolonged to as far as mid 2022 extending the top cycle which would follow Stock2flow model (higher extended wyckoff distributions-accumulations and diminished maximus returns). I don't expect bear market or an insane bounce from current price to a new ATH soon. Most probably scenario is we're near the end of wyckoff distribution and about to enter a final second wyckoff accumulation. So 144k ATH 2021 EOY or MID 2022. 64k should be a mid term top. - - - - This will follow also 12345 ELLIOT wave count after ABC correction being C (20-30K). NFA.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by diversionlulu
9
BITCOIN to 20.000$ ? We are on our way en here is why! MUST SEE!Dear traders, I have prepared an analysis of Bitcoin on the longer term. You can see here Bitcoin with an MACD on a weekly time frame basis and a MACD on a daily basis. If we go back in time for a moment, we got a sell signal in the weekly MACD on January 25 2018. The price of Bitcoin did not move higher after that but continued to fall with botteming out until October 24, 2018. It was a correction of 82% This was THE time to buy! The next sell signal of the weekly MACD was on August 30, 2019. The following period we got a correction of 64%. Again the perfect place to buy for longer term! Currently, we got the sell signal of the week MACD on April 23, 2021. Compare the chart yourself. The daily MACD is currently NOT showing any positive divergence so this correction is probably going to continue for some time before we see bigger pullbacks. That is ofcourse just a scenario because we are talking here on longer time frames. Traders, this does not imply that there will be no rebounds. But the long term picture and prices above 65000 can in my personal opinion be forgotten for a longer period. I understand traders who don't believe this scenario but this is my view on it. I believe Bitcoin will climb to 300.000 $ in the future only it will not go in one line. We do have corrections needed for a stable growth in price. So According to my personal analysis, with Bitcoin, we can see a possible bottom in the period January to July 2022 with a price target of 20000! Where and how do I get that number of 20000? First it was a milestone and extemely important keylevel in 2018. It is also the top from now with a 65% correction ( the minimum correction from the last 2 correctiosn). The time is just what happened in the past from the moment the MACD signal was given untill the final bottom and Bitcoin went up again! That is minimum 6 months and maximum 12 months if and only if history repeats it self. But that is where TA is based on and never forget it does not work always and for 100% but you will have a big edge on traders who don't see the bigger picture! Guy's as said already, this hypothese is my personal view on Bitcoin. It is not investment advice but a hypothesis that I believe has a very good chance of happening. I respect everyone's opinion even if it is different. That is why there are bulls and bears and the market is always priced correctly because there is as much demand as supply. The market also always comes back to the longer term average. My view on Bitcoin for the long term is very bullish because Bitcoin is only limited in circulation namely 21 million coins can be mined but again that will probably happen from next year only. Would love to hear your idea's and view on Bitcoin traders. What is your view and most important why! An idea is good but without analysis it says nothing of course. If you like my work please support it by following me and giving me thumbs up. That will motivate to continue with analysing the charts! Thanks!!! I wish all of you good trading and profits!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by PegasusTechCharts
4