Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC AnalysisHey guys this is my second post, just wanted to share some ideas about the previous market cycle on the HTFs and how it feels quite similar to the one we are in.
As can be seen the first red horizontal line shows the market being disrespected by the 21 Week EMA (candles can be seen closing above 21 but there isn't enough strength to flip the sentiment).
That is until market breaks above the 21 and retests it (red arrow pointing at retest point) showing there is strength to allow a continuation and market is respecting the 21.
Consolidation can be seen indicating a slight cool off of the market before making another run up.
The first red flag that confirms that market sentiment has shifted is where the 21 is broken where a fake-out then occurs indicating market is being disrespected by the 21
Another important oscillator to watch is the RSI, you can see RSI made a double top pattern from where the consolidation period started to where the market top was reached indicating a reversal was imminent.
So far the market has generally played out quite similarly to the last cycle, its just the macro scale seems different than previously
What Im really eager to see is a consolidation zone retesting the 21 before another leg up (similar to the 1st highlighted white box). This would then be a good time to fill up some bags possibly
These are just my thoughts and observations, who knows how the market will play out, but history always repeats itself, thats for sure.
Thanks for reading peeps
Cycle
SPX's study since 80s, SP X& 10Y relation Code is "Decoded"Since the 80s every time we get a spike in US10Y Bonds SPX got a correction with a
minimum of 20% and maximum of 57 % the question is where & when. Therefore,
looking back to all the data available on Tradingview since 80s to 2021 we have
measure the spike's percentage of all > 20% and the distance from the Golden Crosses & Death
Crosses and showed the crash percentage as results of that. Surprisingly the weekly
Golden Cross are 50-50 chance not the normal with indicators so the results are shown
not plotted for the weekly. As for the daily all the work is plotted on the chart for
your reference. Feel free to print, share, redistribute and publish this study for the
benefit of any one out there. How to read the table below, just follow the steps:
1. Fist percentage is the gain of US10Y from the last reasonable low.
2. Second percentage is the % of the actual crashes.
3. The distance between the Gold Cross & the peak of the crash it self.
4. G.C = Golden Cross. D.C Death Cross
244 % up So far- ???? so far
144% up -20%- 305D G.C
59 % up -20%-70D G.C
70% up -57%- 20D D.C
64 % up -50%- 363D G.C
(-24% Down) -22% -357D D.C xxx.
18% up -20%-78D G.C
28% up -36%- 130D G.C
43% up- -27%- 53D G.C
3 G. Crosses Vs 4 D. Crosses "Irrelevant weekly"
6 G. Crosses Vs 2 D. Crosses " 75% G. Cross "
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The actual study is here " Just click the picture"
Bearish Cycle in the MarketBearish Cycle in the Market
1) "market maker spread" is the maximum and minimum of the initial channel. This is usually 25-50 pips high.
2) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time.
Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle.
The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur.
3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement.
According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point.
4) A large impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs and then looking for stop runs from the reset channel.
5) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit.
6) Use the bigger picture (1 hr & 4 hr time frame) to identify levels for possible entries. At the lowest level (15min), take trades ONLY from the LOD / HOD.
-------------------------
Additionally:
Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD
Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs.
A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs.
B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume .
C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern)
-------------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes.
Thanks for your support!
Bearish Cycle in the MarketBearish Cycle in the Market
1) "market maker spread" is the maximum and minimum of the initial channel. This is usually 25-50 pips high.
2) "Stop Hunt" usually consists of three movements that can occur in a short time.
Three impulses will be marked on the "live" candle.
The end of the stop hunt results in the extreme value (LOD) of the cycle and gives the first signal of where the reversal will occur.
3) "Zone Shift" is a movement intended both for accumulation and for keeping the trading volume concluded at the maximum of the price movement.
According to my observations, I can say that after the "Zone Shift" consolidation is formed, volume continues to accumulate. In these places, you can just look for an entry point.
4) A large impulse move during the initial channel may still be worked by resetting the initial channel hi / lo AFTER the move occurs and then looking for stop runs from the reset channel.
5) Correct entry in the second stage with “peak formation” will use the “zone shift” to take profit.
6) Use the bigger picture (1 hr & 4 hr time frame) to identify levels for possible entries. At the lowest level (15min), take trades ONLY from the LOD / HOD.
-------------------------
Additionally:
Duration of consolidation after stopping hunting before HOD / LOD
Difficult to define. We do not know how long a major player will take to gain a position and we do not know how much volume he needs.
A) The previously accumulated volume can be quite large, so no consolidation is required and a V-shaped bottom occurs.
B) Additional time may be required to accumulate volume.
C) Additional time may be required followed by the expected search for a second stop (wide W-pattern)
-------------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support with likes.
Thanks for your support!
BTC CYCLESAs you can see, there is a pattern of tops and bottoms on BTC if we look on the logarithmic scale with fibonacci settings also on log. If this patterns continues we gonna have the next top on 200.000 area and the next bottom to 60.000 area. We have no reason to believe this pattern is broken so let’s see if and when we go there.
FEDFUNDS - Will See Light Again!I am not a fundamental expert (nor an economist) but I found FEDFUNDS chart really interesting!
I never thought that basic technical analysis tools can also be applied to such economic instruments!
From a technical perspective, FEDFUNDS has been bearish for a while making lower lows and lower highs.
For the momentum to be shifted from bearish to bullish, as mentioned in the title "see light again", FEDFUNDS has to break above the last swing high. (highlighted in gray as trigger)
It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this one.
~Rich
GOLD Short Term waves updated 12 March 2021Gold Final Leg Down of Wave A (red, circled ) of Triangle.. Tp 1 @ around 1600, Tp 2 @ around 1560 ( which is Fibo 0.50 % from Dec 2015 low, The Cup bottom line / parabolic arc line, weekly trend line muti - confluence zone/area ) , Sl @ 11 March 2021 High...
Bitcoin Market Cycle Forecast for the Next Two Halving EventsThis is what I foresee in BTC/USD in terms of long-term market cycle trends between now, the next halving (currently projected to be on May 27, 2020), and the halving after that (currently projected to be between March 2024 and June 2024).
The dotted lines mark past halving dates as well as the projected 2020 and 2024 halving dates.
Bitcoin market cycles have corresponded to each halving. Since the advent of Bitcoin , all Bitcoin halving dates have been followed by bull markets, which are then followed by a bear market and accumulation periods. Given the current long-term trend of Bitcoin's lifetime market patterns, each bull market should be less extensive than the previous bull market. That being said, patterns can always be broken, and this cycle is no exception, regardless of its longevity.
I do not hold any Bitcoin at the time of writing (June 5th, 2019).
Do your own research.
Don't worry about BitcoinBitcoin is still in up channel and it needs to make a lowSo to make an another low, Bitcoin needs to retrace and right now(2/24/2021) BTC is experiencing a corrective wave.] Also Bitcoin is experiencing a bearish candle in weekly time frame.
Based on fib retracements , Important support zones are:
Zone 1: 45100 - 44500
Zone 2: 42230 - 41700 (chance to return from this zone)
Zone 3: 39600 - 39000 (difficult to break out this zone)
Zone 4: 37400 - 36700
Zone 5: 34500 - 33400
Zone 6: 30000 - 29200
This is not an investing or trading idea, This is just an analysis for BTC recent corrective wave.
Do your own research and remember risk management is the key of success in financial markets.
Thanks for your time
Comment your idea and let me know what you are thinking
USD/JPY - Bullish cycle imminent? USD/JPY - 4HR Chart
We've seen a bounce off our long term ascending trendline. Bullish cycle upwards imminent? Will we see price follow our forecasted price path?
Do not use trendlines alone to take trades, however - they can be great to help you identify the trend on the HTF.
PDAC a good entry point? I think it will touch 12.85 and then push back above 13. Look for the hammer soon.
GBP/NZD - Break of Ascending Structure Will we see further downside movement on this pair?
We saw a break of structure last week after price tagged the top of our ascending channel around a key long term level in the market. Will we see price cycle down to the bottom of previous structure?
This pair indicates strength vs strength in the forex markets at the moment. Want to know what this means? Drop me a message?