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🔥 Bitcoin: The Best Next Cycle's Top Forecast 🎯Foreword In this analysis I want to make an attempt at forecasting both the date and the price range at which Bitcoin will top at in the coming bull-cycle. The forecast is 100% based on historical data and is based on math and not on feelings, so be prepared to see some numbers and formulas. This analysis is speculative in nature because we're forecasting the price of an asset around 2 years into the future. So take it with a grain of salt. Halvings The yellow dotted lines are past and future halving dates. For the last two halvings, Bitcoin has topped (green) between 74 - 78 weeks after the halving. The next halving is scheduled around 22 April 2024. Bottoms The red dotted lines are past bear-market bottoms. For the last two cycles Bitcoin topped 151 and 152 weeks after the bear-market bottom. Monthly RSI Based on this analysis BTC will top between 47-49 months after the top. In short: between September and November 2025. Forecasting the DATE Applying the logic of the two historical analyses above, we can make the assumption that BTC will top around 152 weeks after the market bottom. Assuming that the bottom is in, this brings us to early November 2025. This would be 79 weeks after the 2024 halving. Looking at the time between the halving to the top, this ranges from 74-78 weeks. All of the above is in line with my Monthly RSI analysis. Combining everything above, we can forecast that Bitcoin will top between late September and early November 2025. Log Price Bands In order to calculate the price we make use of my Logarithmic Price Bands Indicator. I've removed the bottom two bands since we're only interested in the top band, which forecasts the top. The top band is based on a complicated exponential formula that gives a certain Price (Y) for a certain time (X). See this indicator for more info. Forecasting the PRICE By filling in the dates of late September 2025 and early November 2025 into the Log Bands formula, we get a lower and an upper band of the price. This price ranges from 171k - 250k. This is the best forecast that historical price action can give you, although we had to make the assumption that the coming cycle will follow a similar path as the previous two, which is not far-fetched since the asset has matured more. Conclusion Date: late September - early November 2025 Price: 170.000 - 251.000 The macro environment has changed a lot over the last two years, so I'd be happily surprised if this forecast turned out to be true. Personally I'm more conservative than this analysis suggests because of interest / inflation / recession. Still, this analysis is 100% based on historical facts and the best factually correct forecast I can give at a next cycle's top. Please share your thoughts on this analysis. Also interested to hear your predictions! 🙏
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
44
📉 The Tightening MA 100 and MA 200: A History of Bull Markets Cryptocurrency markets have an intriguing history of patterns and cycles. Many traders have observed a notable sign that often heralds a bull market: when the Moving Averages (MA) 100 and 200 start to converge. This historical market indicator is back in focus as recent market conditions have seen these moving averages constrict. The Significance of Moving Averages: Moving Averages, particularly the MA 100 and MA 200, are essential tools in technical analysis. When these two indicators converge and approach each other, they often create a technical event called a "golden cross." This suggests an impending shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Contraction as a Prelude to Expansion: Notably, this time around, the market displayed an even more compelling scenario. Not only did we witness the MA 100 and MA 200 coming close, but we also saw a dip below these averages. This event created a historical context where traders had to navigate the market under the MA 200, which was followed by a swift recovery. The Essence of Challenges: In the world of trading and investing, it's essential to remember that difficult times often cultivate the strongest individuals. These challenges, which include price volatility, market manipulation, and psychological pressures, help shape resilient and knowledgeable traders. Trading Strategy: Preparation for the Future: Traders are increasingly vigilant of the MA 100 and MA 200 interaction, especially when it comes to the potential formation of a golden cross. While historical patterns offer insights, it's critical for traders to adapt their strategies based on the current market climate and the broader economic landscape. Conclusion: Lessons from History The market's oscillations have offered lessons over the years. As the MA 100 and MA 200 constrict, market participants are reminded of the significance of this historical technical indicator. While challenges often precede opportunities, they can also shape traders into more adaptable and resourceful individuals. 📊 Market Analysis | 🧠 Trader Insights | 💹 Technical Indicators ❗See related ideas below❗ What are your thoughts on the convergence of MA 100 and MA 200?💚📈💚
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Yaroslav_Krasko
1
Exploring Fibonacci Magic Levels in Bitcoin 💹📈After delving into technical analysis in Bitcoin, " Fibonacci Magic Levels " were created. 📉🔬 It is based on the continuity of various Fibonacci levels, ranging from a smaller scale to well-known levels. By precisely calibrating various Fibonacci retracement and extension levels in our Fibonacci Channel, we have identified highly relevant patterns in Bitcoin price behavior. 📊✨ These "magical levels" seem to strongly influence support and resistance areas, contributing to strategic trading and investment decisions. 📈📉
INDEX:BTCUSD
by joaowedsonf