Gold's 190 years chart since 1833. 24/Nov/23Gold. we are at muti year triangle = sideway now, this triangle probably only completed by 2025 as we are still at wave (c)(blue) of the triangle on monthly chart ( pls refer to zoom in pic).
P/s. 99.9% of Elliotticians ( traders who practise elliott wave ) hardly achieved consistent waves counts as 99.9 following "textbook" written rules that 1,3,5 impulsive waves consist of 5 waves BUT in "fact" it consist of only ABC subwaves.
Cycle
Gold is on Bullish triangle, so we'll see 2065 +/-. 22/Nov/23XAUUSD, by checking its internal Z-factor (speed) GOLD is probably forming a bullish triangle, currently its price is moving down toward wave e (green circled) of triangle... Hence gold's price probably will reach 2065 +/- by mid of December.
🔥 Bitcoin: The Best Next Cycle's Top Forecast 🎯Foreword
In this analysis I want to make an attempt at forecasting both the date and the price range at which Bitcoin will top at in the coming bull-cycle. The forecast is 100% based on historical data and is based on math and not on feelings, so be prepared to see some numbers and formulas.
This analysis is speculative in nature because we're forecasting the price of an asset around 2 years into the future. So take it with a grain of salt.
Halvings
The yellow dotted lines are past and future halving dates. For the last two halvings, Bitcoin has topped (green) between 74 - 78 weeks after the halving. The next halving is scheduled around 22 April 2024.
Bottoms
The red dotted lines are past bear-market bottoms. For the last two cycles Bitcoin topped 151 and 152 weeks after the bear-market bottom.
Monthly RSI
Based on this analysis BTC will top between 47-49 months after the top. In short: between September and November 2025.
Forecasting the DATE
Applying the logic of the two historical analyses above, we can make the assumption that BTC will top around 152 weeks after the market bottom. Assuming that the bottom is in, this brings us to early November 2025. This would be 79 weeks after the 2024 halving. Looking at the time between the halving to the top, this ranges from 74-78 weeks. All of the above is in line with my Monthly RSI analysis.
Combining everything above, we can forecast that Bitcoin will top between late September and early November 2025.
Log Price Bands
In order to calculate the price we make use of my Logarithmic Price Bands Indicator. I've removed the bottom two bands since we're only interested in the top band, which forecasts the top. The top band is based on a complicated exponential formula that gives a certain Price (Y) for a certain time (X).
See this indicator for more info.
Forecasting the PRICE
By filling in the dates of late September 2025 and early November 2025 into the Log Bands formula, we get a lower and an upper band of the price. This price ranges from 171k - 250k.
This is the best forecast that historical price action can give you, although we had to make the assumption that the coming cycle will follow a similar path as the previous two, which is not far-fetched since the asset has matured more.
Conclusion
Date: late September - early November 2025
Price: 170.000 - 251.000
The macro environment has changed a lot over the last two years, so I'd be happily surprised if this forecast turned out to be true. Personally I'm more conservative than this analysis suggests because of interest / inflation / recession.
Still, this analysis is 100% based on historical facts and the best factually correct forecast I can give at a next cycle's top.
Please share your thoughts on this analysis. Also interested to hear your predictions! 🙏
US 10 Years Bond Yield 233 years old chart since 1790. 14/Nov/23US 10 years treasuries yields long term chart since 1790 is forming an expanding flat pattern ABC (Red), where it probably just completed wave II ( Blue Circled) = the first pullback of long term downtrend impulsive C wave ( Red )( further detail in next lower time frame chart ).
📉 The Tightening MA 100 and MA 200: A History of Bull Markets Cryptocurrency markets have an intriguing history of patterns and cycles. Many traders have observed a notable sign that often heralds a bull market: when the Moving Averages (MA) 100 and 200 start to converge. This historical market indicator is back in focus as recent market conditions have seen these moving averages constrict.
The Significance of Moving Averages:
Moving Averages, particularly the MA 100 and MA 200, are essential tools in technical analysis. When these two indicators converge and approach each other, they often create a technical event called a "golden cross." This suggests an impending shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.
Contraction as a Prelude to Expansion:
Notably, this time around, the market displayed an even more compelling scenario. Not only did we witness the MA 100 and MA 200 coming close, but we also saw a dip below these averages. This event created a historical context where traders had to navigate the market under the MA 200, which was followed by a swift recovery.
The Essence of Challenges:
In the world of trading and investing, it's essential to remember that difficult times often cultivate the strongest individuals. These challenges, which include price volatility, market manipulation, and psychological pressures, help shape resilient and knowledgeable traders.
Trading Strategy: Preparation for the Future:
Traders are increasingly vigilant of the MA 100 and MA 200 interaction, especially when it comes to the potential formation of a golden cross. While historical patterns offer insights, it's critical for traders to adapt their strategies based on the current market climate and the broader economic landscape.
Conclusion: Lessons from History
The market's oscillations have offered lessons over the years. As the MA 100 and MA 200 constrict, market participants are reminded of the significance of this historical technical indicator. While challenges often precede opportunities, they can also shape traders into more adaptable and resourceful individuals.
📊 Market Analysis | 🧠 Trader Insights | 💹 Technical Indicators
❗See related ideas below❗
What are your thoughts on the convergence of MA 100 and MA 200?💚📈💚
Exploring Fibonacci Magic Levels in Bitcoin 💹📈After delving into technical analysis in Bitcoin, " Fibonacci Magic Levels " were created. 📉🔬
It is based on the continuity of various Fibonacci levels, ranging from a smaller scale to well-known levels.
By precisely calibrating various Fibonacci retracement and extension levels in our Fibonacci Channel, we have identified highly relevant patterns in Bitcoin price behavior. 📊✨
These "magical levels" seem to strongly influence support and resistance areas, contributing to strategic trading and investment decisions. 📈📉
Topglov new quarter result was worse than last quarter? 1/Nov/23Topglove''s latest "quarterly" report "disappointed" again. Not just "investors", "traders" are "hardworking" individual as well who do check their positions not just "quarterly" but everyday beside reading on each stock's Intrinsic value, ROE, P/E, Forward Free Cash Flow, Profit Margin etc "quarterly" OR reading "market news" "once a while"...
🔥 Historical Bitcoin Bull-Markets Predict PUMP 🚀In this analysis we're going to take a closer look at the three previous Bitcoin bull-markets, and compare them to the current one. To clarify, I calculated that a "bull-market" starts at the bear-market lows and ends at the bull-market highs.
As seen on the chart, the 2011 bull-market was an outlier. There was very little volume, which resulted is massive changes in price in a relative short amount of time.
The 2014 and 2018 runs look fairly similar. Both were very choppy for the first year, but ended up following a similar bullish path.
The white line, which is the current market, has followed a path in between 2014 and 2018, until we got the most recent BTC break out. In some sense, this makes 2022 an outlier.
Like I mentioned in my previous comparison analysis, Bitcoin and crypto are going to be fine. We're well on track towards the halving and the following bull-market.
Which market path do you think we will follow? Straight up like 2011, or a more gradual approach like last year? Share your thoughts 🙏
Macro BTC pattern shows path to 42-44K then 32KThe chart is self-explanatory. All I have done is taken the Bar Patterns at the 15K lows and matched them with the lows at 25K, there are astonishing similarities. Go ahead and have a look at all the similarities I have highlighted.
This pattern suggests, we should soon have a pump to 39K region, then a dump to 34K region followed by a pump to 42 to 44K region and then a large dump to 32K region.
The dump to 32K would be akin to dump at 19.5K from 25K and then 32K region could act a strong S/R flip to push the btc price to new highs.
It's possible that this may not repeat exactly like before, but when there are so many similarities, we should pay attention.
This is not at all surprising to me, Infact I have been targeting 40K from past 8 to 9 months while most traders were bearish and calling for severe downside.
I also call the 15K bottom Macro bottom when others were expecting more downside.
I am again saying 25K is a major bottom in the BTC cycle.
I have added links to those posts where you can find details about the above claims.
Note: Even though patterns tend to repeat on macro timeframes, there is no guarantee that they will, all these similarities can go out the window. I personally will start taking this pattern seriously if we Pump to 39K region withing next 5 to 7 days, which is what we can see from the BAR feed copied from 15K region.