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In uncertain environments, Quality Dividend Growers the answer2023 saw one of the narrowest bull markets in history, with only 10 stocks contributing 14.3% out of the 20.6% rally during the first 7 months of the year. Since then, markets have turned with the S&P 500 and the MSCI World dropping around -7% since their top1. Looking forward to the rest of 2023 and beyond, uncertainty is high: The Federal Reserve (Fed) has reached or is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, but the easing cycle is still distant and its speed is unknown. The US may avoid a full-blown recession but a recessionary environment with below-average growth is still on the table. Further disinflation may be slower as we get closer to target, and energy prices continue to put pressure on core CPI. In such uncertain times, investors could be contemplating reducing risk in their portfolios. However, many of them have been caught with an underweight in equities early in 2023 and missed out on the rally, leading to underperformance. To avoid a repeat, remaining invested but shifting equity exposures toward higher quality, dividend growing companies could help protect the downside while maintaining exposure to the upside. Quality stocks tend to outperform at the end of rate hike cycles With the rate hike cycle reaching its end, it is interesting to see what happened historically to equities in the 12 months following the end of rate hike cycles. The absolute performance of US equities has been quite dispersed following the end of the last 7 rate hike cycles by the Fed. US equities returned 24% in the best period and -18.8% in the worst. Looking at high-quality companies, we observe some consistency, though, since they outperformed the market in 6 out of those seven periods. The only period of outperformance was in 1998, when quality companies returned ‘only’ 23.3% versus 24.3% for the market. In the two periods when equities posted negative returns, quality companies cushioned the loss well, reducing the drawdown significantly. When investors get picky, quality companies benefit On observing the performance of high- and low-quality stocks depending on the level of growth in the economy. We split quarters into 4 quartiles, from low-growth quartiles to high-growth quartiles, and then calculate the outperformance or underperformance of those stocks in the quarter following the growth observation. We first observe the resilience of high-quality companies. While low-quality companies only outperform when the economy is firing on all cylinders, high-quality companies outperform in all 4 environments. High-quality stocks outperform more when growth is either low or below average. The style that doesn’t go out of style Investment factors ebb and flow between periods of relative under- and outperformance, depending on where we are in the cycle. One big exception is quality which is, in our view, the most consistent of all factors. Sure, quality can lag in the sharp risk-on rallies that typically mark the start of an early cycle snapback; but those environments don’t tend to last, and neither does quality’s underperformance. In fact, there hasn’t been a rolling 10-year period when quality underperformed since the late 1980s. The rolling outperformance of different US equity factors versus the market over 10-year periods since the 1970s based on the data from a famous academic: Kenneth French. On average, over periods of 10 years, quality is the factor that has historically delivered outperformance the most, often by a significant margin (90% of the time, the second best only hit 78%). It is also the factor that exhibited the smallest worst performance. Conclusion Overall, high-quality companies have exhibited outperformance in periods of low growth, in periods following rate hikes and, more generally, across many parts of the business cycle. With economic uncertainty remaining elevated, and an equity rally that is faltering, investors could consider quality as their portfolio anchor. Sources 1 WisdomTree, Bloomberg. As of 27 September 2023. 2 WisdomTree, Bloomberg, Morningstar, June 2016 to June 2023. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CBOE:SPX
by aneekaguptaWTE
Yen-Ruble TutorialAs you can see market forces react on investor attitude with spirits, investors make decisions based on their mood and statistics. We see gold chart is jumping from fear territory, fashioning greed in mood, while Yen-Rub is plummet from the euphoria. While other assets symbolize peril for this manner, we believe market forces move in cycles in the twinkling of an eye. Majoring in this pasture as luck may have it transmit analyst on an even keel amid angel stew.
Education
by UnknownUnicorn462803
1
"HODL" Mentality: Lessons for TradersThe HOMie Mentality: Buying at ATH Many novice traders, or HOMies, fall into the trap of buying a cryptocurrency when it's near its all-time high (ATH). They're influenced by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and jump into the market without a clear strategy. Market Dynamics: Understanding the Cycle Cryptocurrency markets follow a cyclical pattern of ups and downs. Novice traders often enter during the euphoric "FOMO" phase when prices are at their peak. The Emotional Rollercoaster: Avoiding HOMie Mistakes To avoid the HOMie trap, it's crucial to detach emotions from trading decisions. Create a clear strategy with entry and exit points, and stick to it. Risk Management: Protecting Your Investments Novice traders should prioritize risk management. Only invest what you can afford to lose, and avoid putting all your funds into a single asset. Education: The Key to Success Novice traders can transition from being HOMies to informed investors by educating themselves. Learn about technical analysis, market cycles, and different trading strategies. Conclusion: From HOMie to Trader The HODL mentality can be a valuable strategy when used wisely, but it shouldn't lead novice traders to make impulsive decisions. By understanding market dynamics, managing risk, and educating themselves, HOMies can transform into informed traders who navigate the crypto market with confidence. Remember, successful trading takes time and patience, and every trader, even the most experienced, started as a novice. 🌐📈💡 ❗See related ideas below❗ Don't forget to like, share, and leave your thoughts in the comments. 💚🚀💚
Education
by Yaroslav_Krasko
1
BICO RETURN POINT CAN EXPLODE THE PRICE TO $4 2023/2024 Thank you for reading our update. Please keep in mind that this is not trading advice. This coin's value has been going down since 2022, especially after it dropped from an important point at $4.55. However, 2023 looks like a year when the coin might go up to that level again. Some companies have shown interest in it this year, with FIRM EDEN BLOCK being one of them. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) is a powerful method that can make a coin stronger in the long run. With DCA, more companies gradually start investing in it. This update is about what's expected to happen in 2023 and the beginning of 2024. Our analysis suggests that there's a chance the coin could reach $4 USD again. This is mainly because more companies are getting interested, and the technical analysis data for the coin looks positive. This can become a history coin that has shown a strong effect. It's not the first time in the crypto world that we have seen a coin do the unexpected.
Long
by SatochiTrader
4
BTC/USD Main trend. Cycles. Halving BTC. Surrender zones.Logarithm. The time frame is 1 month. The main bitcoin trend (almost all of it). Idea for understanding cyclicality, and secondary trend capitulation zones. Also, for understanding where the price is in a long-term trend. The idea shows surrender zones in secondary trends. The timing of bitcoin's halvings and the trend reaction in the aftermath. Cyclicality. Also shown on the chart are intermediate cycles of bitcoin and market pumping between major long-term cycles. Note that unlike past cycles, the bitcoin price has been under the uptrend line for a very long time. Electricity. I have shown this many times before. Linear graph.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by SpartaBTC
16
Understanding Long-Term SPX500 & QQQ Cycle PhasesMy continued effort to share my research, experience, and expectations with the TradingView community has allowed me the freedom to create forward-looking content to help traders/investors understand the real risks/opportunities going forward. If my research is correct, then next 5+ years will be incredibly difficult for skilled traders/investors. I don't believe the US markets will enter a real organic growth phase until after 2025 (possibly in 2026 or later). There are many reasons for this extended contraction phase in the US/Global markets. Most importantly is a broad cycle phase related to societal changes. Secondly, we have a Sine-wave structure that confirms a contracting price phase needs to reach a base/equilibrium before it will be able to extend into an organic growth phase. As a trader, investor, or just someone trying to protect your family, your home, your children, and more, you need to understand the value of PROTECTING CAPITAL before taking on foolish risks. That is exactly what I'm trying to help you manage and understand - where opportunities exist in the markets over the next 5 to 15+ years. Watch this video, then click on my profile to watch some of my other TradingView videos. We live in a world where what happened 3 weeks ago is almost forgotten. These cycle phases exist, continue to drive price setups/trends, and will continue. Are you ready for what's next?
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by BradMatheny
3