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Cycle

Is the BTCUSD bottom in? Where could it go?Historically, BTCUSD has corrected over 75% from its all time high on many occasions. After these corrections, BTCUSD has rallied anywhere between 1,600% and over 13,000% from its market bottom, according to this price chart. I believe BTCUSD could do the same again in the future. How high will it go? That's challenging to determine. If history holds any merit at all, we could see prices rally over 13,000% from the recent market bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BACapitalManagement
Are there really Cycles in the Crypto market?Are there really Cycles in the Crypto market? Are there really cycles in the markets? -Are cycles only in the stock market or in all walks of life? -What is the use of understanding cycles? -How is it always going up or not? -If it always goes up, why do the majority lose? -Is there a similarity? Does it always have to be similar? -How do we recognize meaningful textures? How do we distinguish between cycles and meaningless similarities? Are altoins long-term or cyclical? -But could it be different this time? Cycles and similarities actually exist in every aspect of life. In living beings, inanimate beings, radioactive elements, our planet, the universe, the devices we use, products, history, sports and the part that interests us - the markets. As long as humans and markets exist, these cycles will continue. If human behavior is similar across time, the consequences of human behavior should be similar. So, what do we actually see in the graphs. "Consequences of human behavior Within cycles, there will always be new winners and losers. This is why the stock market exists. In order for the last losers to win, new last-comers must enter the market (new cycle). Cycles in crypto are faster than in general markets. Cycles that used to take almost a human lifetime in classical exchanges, commodities and exchange rates have now been reduced to shorter periods due to the speed of life, the impact of technology and the increase in the number of investors. Another reason for the speed in crypto is that the market can be traded 24/7 and 365 days a year. Within a year, we see more transactions and more movement in crypto than in other markets. The crypto market is the most suitable market for the speed of the new world (technology-fashion-obsolescence-consumption speed, etc.) and reflects the speed of the age. Fast technology, fast fashion, fast communication, fast human relations, fast production-consumption; and of course fast MARKET. The increase in speed in every aspect of life would of course also affect the markets. There are good and bad sides to this; very quick losses and very quick gains. Reasons for rapid losses and gains: a-) The market we are in is not regulated (rule-law), b-) The fact that its technology is very new, that its technological part is understood only by a certain segment of the population, again speaking for the world in general; + a very minority group is only capable of distinguishing right from wrong with their own analysis, c-) With just a phone; it can be operated very simply by everyone (young, old, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, women, men, etc.) regardless of class, gender, age What do I mean by the above? a-) Lack of supervisory and regulatory rules; There are no regulations protecting investors in this market. In other words, our money is not protected or insured by any state-institution as of now. As you know, when there are no rules and when there is big and easy money involved, people with bad intentions end up here. The fact that it's easy to issue tokens, that there are no rules for creating tokens, selling them, marketing them, advertising them Limited number of shares in the stock exchanges and too many rules for going public (according to crypto=) ) So coins come out almost every minute. Exchanges can be easily opened in tax haven countries, Easy (low-cost) listing of coins on decentralized exchanges or shitcoin exchanges. It is easy to issue and sell tokens as if you were creating an asset from scratch with no strings attached, and it is very easy to sell during bull periods, No penalties for marketing and manipulating Shitcoins on Social Media. Since it is the most risk-averse market in the world, rug-pulling is considered normal by investors. Experienced malicious people can make big profits in a short period of time at a low cost. (We have seen many examples of the bull, which we have seen many examples of before, hitting 4-5m USD with a cost of $ 50,000 and escaping - advertising, shilling, etc.). b-) Incompetent people believe in everything and enter into direct transactions without knowing and learning (creating volume) (small money - many transactions) Experienced investors make fewer transactions with more information and analysis (big money - few transactions), On the contrary, inadequate or new investors taking more transactions with sudden decisions and feelings, "More transactions, more money perception", stock market advertisements that push believers to make more transactions (Exchange = gettin commission income) Are altoins long-term or cyclical? To put it crudely: The more shitcoin an Altcoin is, the more cyclical it is (i.e. earn during the trend and run away when the trend ends). The more quality and proven Altcoin is, and the more it solves a problem, the more long-term it is. You can look at Altcoin/btc parities to see what I mean. Very few Altcoins have been able to show a sustainable increase against BTC and only in certain periods. Does the crypto market always have to grow? Unless there are very harsh regulations or bans, "Yes" against paper currencies. it doesn't matter whether it is usd, eur or gbp. Content of cycles: Briefly: 3 periods Decline from peak > accumulation > ascent Bottom level base formation, saw zone, pre-rally, disbelief, aggressive rally. Afterwards, the cycle repeats according to the conditions of the coming days. Although the cycles follow one another, each cycle is different from each other. That is, the periods of decline-accumulation-rise can be of different lengths. Depending on the conditions of the period, there may have been a very long uptrend. This may be followed by a very long and sharp correction. At the end of a weak trend, the downturn may be short. We will examine the details on the charts. When we enter the accumulation period, the price has realized the bottom formation and the products sold at the peak have started to be collected again at low cost by the big players (capital, whales, rich people, masons, 7 families ruling the world, whatever you want to call it:) ). This process can be long or short depending on the period (see chainlink) Sometimes markets can recover quickly with a V shape (rapid decline-fast reaction) (covid period). Sometimes we see a saw in a certain narrow price range at the bottom. (Btc 2015-2016) The aim is to collect goods without raising the price and without making it obvious. Understanding the cycle through Doge? Dogecoin was launched in December 2013. In December this year, it will be 10 years old. That's a long time for the crypto market. We have witnessed 3 different cycles of Doge in these 10 years. 1. Trend > It took 476 minutes to fall from its peak to its lowest point. It then rose from this point (not forming a new bottom) and accumulated. This up and down process lasted until February 2017. This is where the "doge-style bullish" phase, as we will later call it, began. In the region where this uptrend started, it gets support from the 100-week moving average (100w sma) and the move begins. Level 1: peak zone Level 2: Intermediate transition line (Important support-resistances are in place) Level 3: Bottom and Accumulation bowl 2nd Trend > The uptrend that started in February 2017 continues until January 2018 with 2 stages. The 3-level structure is also seen here. The decline from the peak to the low lasts 798 days. The upward break of the trend lasts 910. Here, too, the region gets support from the 100-week moving average (100w sma) and aggressive action begins. We can say that the rise until May 2021 is again in 2 phases. Trend 3 > Along with the whole market, Doge's trend turns bearish in May 2021. The lowest level we have seen so far in Doge within this trend is $0.05. 833 days have passed since the May 2021 peak. We are below the 100-week average and the average is now at $0.11. What's important in this Dogecoin cycle chart; 3-level structure Time from peak > trend breakout Position relative to the 100-week moving average Aggressive 2-stage bullish moves starting after the trend breakout. Explaining it through Doge is easy for both the narrator and the reader. It shows the cycle clearly. I have prepared multiple doge charts, you can review them. Are there similarities, and if so, do they always have to be similar? Capturing similarities and using them meaningfully Similarity does not always have to be in every product. Different actions may have taken place in very different scenarios. The important thing is to find the mathematically meaningful similarity and draw conclusions in a way that is useful to us. Similarity is not just a resemblance of shape when viewed from a distance. It must be confirmed in many ways and temporally proportional. It should also be possible with important indicators such as Rsi and moving averages. Just as technical analysis is not just 2 lines, similarity is not just a resemblance of shape. It should also be kept in mind. Cycles and similarities are most meaningful on long-term charts Siacoin XRP/BTC VERGE Digibyte
BNC:BLXLong
by Cryptollica
BTC : CYCLE VIEW 2025 - $119,000Using a comprehensive analysis of BTC's historical data from all years, including its halvings, and sophisticated trend analysis techniques, as we have stumbled upon a fascinating observation in its price action. While we must acknowledge that our findings are based on data study and not a glimpse into the future, we are cautiously optimistic about the potential for BTC's growth. Our study suggests that, with the current trajectory, BTC could potentially reach the impressive target of $119,000 sometime around the year 2025, or possibly even earlier. However, it is essential to emphasize that this remains an expectation rather than a certainty, as the future is inherently uncertain, and various unforeseen factors can influence market dynamics. Yet, drawing from the patterns observed in previous years' data, there is a significant possibility that BTC might soon experience a formidable bull market, akin to a real whale in the financial world. Such a surge in price action could gradually propel BTC towards the mentioned target, assuming historical trends continue to play a role in shaping its trajectory. For the short term, there is already an active cycle that started in NOV 2022 and did confirm today. We expect with time we will see more volume on BTC. The YEAR 2023 is a stable year where BTC has done better than all previous years in breakdown %/ The next important target short term for BTC $32800
Long
by Goldenbreakout
🔥 Bitcoin MACD First Bullish Cross In 3 Years: Parabolic Move?On the chart you can see the monthly chart of Bitcoin with the monthly MACD. In Bitcoin life we've seen 6 bullish crosses (blue over orange lines), with 3 of them being the start of a parabolic move, 2 being local tops and 1 (the current one) being unknown. Where the current bullish cross differs from the prior ones is the fact that the cross happens below zero, indicating that there's potentially still a lot of upside for the MACD and therefore the price. Think about pushing a ball under water, the deeper you push it, the higher it will fly outside the water once released. Bitcoin's MACD has been pushed very deep after a prolonged bear market. So, could this bullish MACD cross signal the start of a new parabolic move? At this point, we can't be sure. On the other hand, falling inflation numbers, a very well performing stock market, Bitcoin ETF news etc are tailwinds for crypto and all-round bullish. On the other hand, there's still enough stress in the markets because of high interest rates and decreasing consumer spending. Time will tell. Are we going to fly? Is 31k the top? Please share your thoughts in the comments 🙏
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
14
Bitcoin Steps Into 3-Year UptrendToday we want to share an interesting monthly chart of Bitcoin, in which we highlighted the durations of bull and bear market cycles. As you can see bear markets last for about a year, while bull markets last for almost 3 years, specifically 35 months, which was the case from 2015-2018, then from 2019 – 2022 and now it can last from 2023 till the end of 2025. One of the important indications for bitcoin recovery can of-course be weak USD which is trading down since 2022 and it appears it may fall much lower when FED is done with the current hawkish cycle.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ew-forecast
2
My Ten-Year Personal Summary on BTCMy Ten-Year Personal Summary on BTC Since first encountering BTC in July 2013, a decade has passed. What exactly have I gained over these ten years? You might think that having known about BTC so early, I must have achieved financial freedom. Unfortunately, that’s not the case. From initially getting into BTC in 2013, mining in 2014, to experiencing my first bear market in 2015 and selling all my coins in despair, to watching the bull market rise with an empty portfolio in 2017, and later in the bull market of 2020 losing my last 1 BTC due to leveraged gambling during a market correction, and up to now in 2023, struggling to accumulate coins before the halving, I have paid a heavy price in “tuition fees” over the past ten years. Although I did not achieve financial freedom, I believe that the “tuition fees” I paid over the decade were not in vain. Below is my summary, which I would like to share with everyone. It's well known that BTC undergoes a halving roughly every four years. Many believe this is an emulation of real-world gold mining, aiming to create a deflationary currency. I partly agree with this view, but a notable difference is that the reduction in the mining of precious minerals is continuous, whereas BTC halving is sudden every four years - it's not linear, but step-like. What does this lead to? I'll get to that later. Let me first talk about the pattern I've observed: in the three cycles for which we have data, the peaks of the bull markets occurred 14 months (December 2013), 18 months (December 2017), and 18 months (November 2021) after each halving. The 2013 cycle is somewhat dated, so the 2017 and 2021 cycles are more persuasive, as they occurred when BTC entered the mainstream. We can tentatively conclude that, about a year and a half after a halving, there is a high probability that the bull market will reach its peak. The next question is, when is the bottom? Relative to the peaks of these three cycles, the bottoms occurred 14 months later (January 2015), 13 months later (January 2019), and 13 months later (December 2022), respectively. This is remarkably cyclical. Another point worth noting is that all six instances, whether bull market peaks or bear market bottoms, occurred at the end or beginning of a year, showing a high degree of regularity. This strong regularity inevitably makes one want to capitalize on it; at least if you operated based on the data from 2017 in the just-passed 2021 cycle, you would have made a fortune, wouldn't you? But someone will inevitably criticize me, saying: “Using historical events to predict future events is extremely foolish, you shouldn’t do this at all! Anything can happen, and cycles can change!” I can’t deny this, but we still need a summary of experience, don’t we? Moreover, I will address the issue I mentioned at the beginning, that “BTC’s halving is step-like, not gradual.” This is precisely what leads me to be willing to trust historical data. Ask yourself, whether it be stocks, gold, or foreign exchange, does any investment have the characteristic of halving suddenly every four years like BTC? No. Can BTC’s halving characteristic be altered? No! It was written into the core of BTC by Satoshi Nakamoto and will continue until 2140. It is this “sudden halving” that gives rise to BTC’s four-year cyclical fluctuations. If the halving were linear and continuous, BTC wouldn’t have such strong volatility! The patterns we just summarized are not coincidences, but the inevitable results of the halving mechanism. Therefore, I have every reason to believe that in the years to come, we will still see this cyclicity because the halving mechanism is always there. Even if things may be different, and the timing may vary, the nature will not change. Based on this, we should make good use of the halving cycle, which is the greatest gift that Satoshi Nakamoto has given to long-term investors. As for myself, I built positions between November 2022 and February 2023, and my basis was the pattern we just summarized, and I was right. So, the next operation is to find the next peak. The next halving is currently estimated to be around April 2024. By extrapolation, the approximate selling point would be around November 2025. There will definitely be some deviation in timing, but you will need to combine this with market sentiment and the actual price of BTC at that time. Speaking of price, what should the peak be in November 2025? According to the famous Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (updated V2), the “Maximum Bubble Territory” for November 2025 is between 310-400K, “Sell. Seriously, SELL!” is between 240K-310K, “FOMO intensifies” is between 180-240K, and “Is this a bubble?” is between 140K-180K. The twin peaks of the bull market in 2020 and 2021 did not touch the “Maximum Bubble Territory”; 2021 only touched the bottom of “Sell. Seriously, SELL!”. Therefore, regarding the price high, I don't think even the new V2 version of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart has much reference value, as the market's upper limit is finite and can’t simply be an exponential addition. Thus, I drew my own sell line that truly connects the peaks of these three cycles. I think the price in November 2025 should be between 160K and 180K, and that will be my selling price. Afterwards, according to my buy line for the bottom, I will rebuild positions in BTC in January 2027, at an approximate price of 60K, completing one cycle. Then, I will continue with the next cycle. If everything goes smoothly, the returns will be very impressive. For example, if you currently own 1 BTC, selling it in November 2025 could yield 160K, and subsequently in January 2027, you would be able to buy about 2.5 BTC. By selling in November 2029, you would make 2.5*300K=750K. In December 2030, buying at a price of 150K would net you 5 BTC, and selling in 2033 at a price of 400K would leave you with 2M. I will operate this way for the next decade starting now. You might say I'm an idiot for expecting such an idealized outcome. You are right, life is tough, and not everything goes as you wish. But based on the lessons learned from my decade of experience, I believe this is the plan most worth putting into practice, and it has many advantages. Let me explain them one by one. Firstly, you only need to make two transactions every four years. Compared to the elusive short-term trading, the success rate of trading based on the halving cycle is evidently higher. Additionally, you can store your BTC in cold wallets or hardware wallets for most of the time, which significantly reduces the risk of centralized exchanges going down. As the saying goes, the less you do, the fewer mistakes you make. Moreover, low-frequency trading allows you to get back to life, which is extremely important! Why do we want to make money? Because we want to live well; this is the essence. The most important thing is to avoid the “gambling nature”. Imagine there is a “Gambling Bar” above your head; every time you make a short-term trade, whether successful or not, the bar rises a bit until it’s full. Then it makes you lose your mind and start gambling with leverage. How do I know this so clearly? Because in 2020, I lost all my BTC using just 3x leverage. I was very aware that I could use a stop-loss, but my “Gambling Bar” was full, and I lost my rationality. That's why I will make sure to keep myself away from it for the rest of my life. In this market, risk is everything. As a gambler, as long as you are at the table, no matter how much money you make, the end result will be zero. This concludes my personal ten-year summary of BTC. Whether the experiences I summarized are correct or whether they can be realized doesn't matter. They will be slowly tested by time, and I can focus on working and living better. I wish everyone who reads this article a wonderful day!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by QuantumRoseJ
2
Next Bitcoin bull run top - 2025Based on data from previous Bitcoin cycles, it is possible to make an educated guess based on the trend curves and previous cycle time stamps of when the bull run will conclude and how high we can expect to go. Given the fact that crypto marked has matured over the years it is wise to assume that the next top and next bottom will not be as extreme as with the previous cycles. The prediction is that the next top will be around 120k USD on 2025 September and the bottom will be around 28k USD on September 2026.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by vytuxis
1
🔥 XLM Best Multi Year Trade With Massive Reward!This trade is based on the idea that the bear market bottom is in for XLM and that it gradually increase in value until the next bull market top. As seen on the chart, we can draw a bullish channel on XLM's price chart. The top of the channel is the target, the stop is just below the channel's support. This trade has a massive risk-reward ratio because it's a long-term trade, think multiple years. If you have the patience, this trade could be something for you!
Long
by FieryTrading
7
🔥 Predicting The Next Crypto Bull-Cycle Top And DateIn this analysis I want to make a prediction on where the next bull-market will top, and around which date we can expect it to top. Keep in mind that I only use the last two cycles in this analysis, so take this analysis with a grain of salt. To make the prediction, I use the total marketcap of crypto (TOTAL), which is the value of all Bitcoin and altcoins combined. As seen on the chart, it appears that the crypto market is following a multi-year rising wedge pattern with a clear support and resistance line. My assumption is that this support and resistance line will guide us during the next cycle. In the previous two bull-markets, the market topped 77 or 78 weeks after the halving. With the halving being the 16th of April 2024, we can easily extrapolate the date for the next market top: between 13 October (77 weeks) and 27 October (78 weeks) of 2025. Now that we have the date, we can combine it with the top resistance of the rising wedge pattern. My best guess is that the market will top at this same resistance like before, which will be around the 12 trillion dollar mark. This would indicate that the market will roughly do a 11x from this point onwards towards the top in October 2025. With a Bitcoin & ETH dominance of exactly the same value as now, it would mean that BTC will top at ~330,000 and ETH at ~20,900. My assumption will be that the dominances of the two biggest cryptos will be much smaller in the future then they are now. Do you think this analysis is valid? Where and when do you think that BTC will top? Share your thoughts below 🙏
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by FieryTrading
26
🔥 Total Altcoin Marketcap Inverse Head & Shoulders: New Cycle?TOTAL3, the total crypto marketcap excluding BTC and ETH, has been trading significantly more bearish than Bitcoin and Ethereum. This can also be deduced from the vertical trend of Bitcoin dominance. Still, there's some good news to be said about the altcoin market. As seen on the chart, the altcoin marketcap has formed an inverse head & shoulders pattern, which is classically a trend reversal pattern. Keep in mind that the pattern is not yet confirmed. First we have to break through the top resistance (neckline). Nevertheless, it's a pattern that we definitely have to keep a close eye on since it can signal that great things are coming soon for alts. If the pattern confirms, there's a decent case to be made for the idea that the bear market bottom is in and that a new bull-cycle for alts will begin. Share you thoughts🙏
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by FieryTrading
5
ANT: THE START CYCLE COIN OF THE MOMENTThe ANT coin, also known as Aragon, is a decentralized platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. It allows users to create and manage decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), which are digital organizations that operate without a central authority. ANT has experienced significant growth since its launch in 2017, and is currently ranked among the top 200 coins by market capitalization. we expect that ANT is entering a new cycle, which could lead to further growth in the coming time. One of the key factors driving the growth of ANT is the increasing adoption of decentralized technologies. As more and more people become aware of the benefits of decentralized systems, the demand for platforms like Aragon is likely to increase. Additionally, ANT's focus on decentralized autonomous organizations makes it an attractive option for businesses and organizations looking to streamline their operations and reduce their reliance on centralized authority. Overall, ANT appears to be a promising coin with strong potential for growth. However, as with any investment, it is important to manage risks and do your own research before making any decisions. The first focus target is the 2,80 zone which could enter ANT on way to up 6 USD. We did scan more than 400 high-value coins and ANT come out as a New start cycle coin. Trends show also that decentralized autonomous organizations (DAO) becoming more trend and its possible that the focus coming time will be more there. This is not trading advice, manage always your risk. take this as our view to this view.
ALong
by Goldenbreakout
13
Can You Trade The Cycle?Hi folks, We're going to talk about trade cycles today. I hope you love learning! The strongest power is knowledge! We'll be stronger together! In economics, a trade cycle is a pattern of economic activity that repeats itself over time. It is often characterized by periods of expansion, followed by periods of contraction. The trade cycle can be caused by a variety of factors, including changes in government policy, technological innovation, and consumer demand. The trade cycle is also known as the business cycle or economic cycle. It is a recurring but not periodic fluctuation found in a nation's aggregate economic activity- a cycle that consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general contractions (recessions). There are a number of different types of trade cycles, each with its own characteristics. Some of the most common types of trade cycles include: Kitchin cycle : The Kitchin cycle is a 4- to 5-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Joseph Kitchin, an English economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kitchin cycle is typically characterized by a period of rising prices, followed by a period of falling prices, followed by a period of rising prices again. Juglar cycle : The Juglar cycle is a 10- to 15-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Clement Juglar, a French economist who first described it in the 19th century. The Juglar cycle is typically characterized by a period of expansion, a period of contraction, a period of recovery, and another period of expansion. Kondratiev cycle : The Kondratieff cycle is a 50- to 60-year cycle of economic activity. It is named after Nikolai Kondratieff, a Russian economist who first described it in the 1920s. The Kondratieff cycle is typically characterized by four phases: prosperity, recession, depression, and recovery. Now, we know what cycles are in the shape of context. There is a million dollars question. Can we trade the cycles? As a trader or an investor, we definitely can trade the cycles. However, we need to learn what the cycle is, and how can it start or end. There are a number of ways that a trader can trade the cycle. Some popular methods include: 1- Using fundamental analysis . Fundamental analysis can be used to assess the underlying value of a security. This information can be used to identify potential undervalued or overvalued securities. 2- Using cycle analysis. Cycle analysis is a more specialized form of technical analysis that focuses on identifying cycles in market prices. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades, as well as to forecast future price movements. 3- Using technical analysis. Technical analysis can be used to identify key support and resistance levels, as well as trendlines and patterns. This information can be used to identify potential entry and exit points for trades. It is important to note that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to trading the cycle. The best approach will vary depending on the individual trader's risk tolerance, trading style, and investment goals . Final Tips: 📍 Use a stop-loss order . A stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically closes a trade if the price of a security reaches a certain level. This can help to protect your profits and limit your losses. 📍 Use a trailing stop-loss order . A trailing stop-loss order is a type of order that automatically moves with the price of a security. This can help to lock in profits and protect your gains. 📍 Be patient . Trading the cycle can be a patient game. It is important to be patient and wait for the right opportunities to trade. 📍 Don't overtrade . It is important to avoid overtrading. Overtrading can lead to losses and can also increase your risk. Bonus Chart : US10Y A task for you! Look at the bonus chart and leave your thoughts considering the correlation between US10Y and SP500 or ONS.
SP:SPXEducation
by Bullfighterr
6
Weekly Analysis BTC via Ichimoku Good start to the week, Let us analyze at a glance the daily chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo. We use the traditional settings. There are other indicators in the analysis. We have developed and released them Open Source. Trend: Kumo has been red for 26 days and is 4.2% wide. The various lines confirm a downtrend situation and we are below the Kumo, going towards the Tenkan Weekly. The already bearish momentum has been further exacerbated by the lawsuit to Binance by the SEC. The Kijun Trend indicator now indicates looking for short positions, now since May 9, 2023 Heikin-Ashi: Instead, the Heikin-Ashi is communicating uncertainty to us, as we are still inside the Kumo and certainly today's day pushed the price towards the lower end of the Kumo. Supports and resistances: - 28900.00 Chikou cusps and flat areas of Kijun and Tenkan - 27800.00-27900.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan - 25000.00 Fibonacci - 24800.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan - 24400.00 Chikou cusps and flat zones of Kijun and Tenkan For static price levels, the lower right chart plots the flat zones of Tenkan, Kijun, Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B on different timeframes, and the Chikou for the daily time frame. For dynamic price levels, the Ichimoku lines can be observed: the Tenkan Sen (short term), the Kijun Sen (medium term) as well as the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B (long term). Conclusions: For the past month the situation is bearish, today after the announcement that the SEC has sued Binance, it has led to fear in the markets, generating a candle at the moment of about -5.5%. There are several allegations: first of all about the fact that some coins are considered as securities(e.g. BNB, BUSD, SOL, SAND, FIL, ADA, MATIC, COTI, ALGO, ATOM, MANA, since they can be staked to generate annuity) and therefore need a license to be managed, non-compliance with the ban towards US users and some suspicious transactions carried out by CZ and on the management of clients' funds. In contrast, Binance has defended itself by rejecting allegations that it maneuvered customer funds and that it has always cooperated--from the creation of binance.us--with the SEC and thus points to the allegations as unjustified. It is possible to find a sideways/rebass ABC pattern indicating the following levels: NT 29230, N 26655, E 24080, V 23296. It is important to evaluate the price close during the week on the following price structures: - Bullish: 27100.00-28700.00 - Bearish/Lateral: 24800.00-28155.00 Altcoin Cycle: For Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Cycle we can consider the weekly variation: - Total cryptocurrency market capital: Decreased. - Dominance of BTC: Decreased. - Price of BTC: Decreased. - Alt cycle expectation: Stable. Thanks for your attention, happy to support the TradingView community. Indicators used: Analysis Tool Kijun Trend Indicator Ichimoku Support and Resistance Chikou Support and Resistance
by TheSocialCryptoClub
🔥 Is The Bitcoin Halving Causing Bull Markets? New Theory!The classical Bitcoin theory about halvings is that they "cause" bull-markets because the supply mined gets halved, leading to a negative supply shock and therefore increasing the value per Bitcoin. This is not a surprising theory since it makes a lot of sense and has worked in the past. But, is the halving really that important for the Bitcoin price? I've plotted the balance sheets of the largest central banks in white. If this line goes up, it indicates an expansion of the balance sheet (Quantitative Easing / QE), which can roughly be interpreted as printing money. It appears that Bitcoin bull- and bear-markets are highly correlated with central banks expanding their balance sheets. White line goes up, BTC goes up, white line goes down (or sideways) BTC goes down. I've marked two previous occurrences where the central banks started QE in purple. Bitcoin arguably started the bull-market from those points, and not once the halving (yellow) took place. From this chart we can conclude that the Central Banks are a decisive factor in the start and end of Bitcoin bull markets. Sure, the halving is a highly anticipated event among retail investors and manages to revive the interest into crypto, but I'd argue that QE (= a better investing climate) is the main reason why Bitcoin goes up and down in cycles. In other words, we can have a BTC bull-market during a period of QE without the halving taking place. We can't have a bull-market after the halving without QE. If you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Share your thoughts below 🙏
ECONOMICS:USCBBSLong
by FieryTrading
9
Are we approaching the last cycle expansion phase?The last cycle expansion phase or the euphoric stage, has already occurred between 2020 and 2021. Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” Reference of Nasdaq: E-mini Nasdaq-100 & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index & Opt Minimum fluctuation 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
2
If Bitcoin Repeated 2019In today's idea, we're going to entertain a "what if" scenario for CRYPTOCAP:BTC : what if the price of Bitcoin does an exact repeat of what happened back in 2019 up until the high in early 2021? This hypothesis is based off the candle pattern that starts from the 2019 mid-cycle high (1). So, assuming April 2023 was our mid-cycle high of $31,035, it's interesting to note the possibility of further downside continuation for BTC. From here on out it would be a slow grind down to $16,506 (2), then a sharp move to FWB:25K (3) (which would be an excellent fake out), then a final dump to $10,731 (4). While we aren't expecting (or hoping for) a repeat of the COVID crash that happened in March 2020, it's interesting to note that such a panic could push Bitcoin's price down to $10k- a level that would cause extreme fear and panic. Lastly, the candle projection takes us just over $100k in early 2025 (5)- a realistic ATH target for Bitcoin in our opinion. Note that this idea is purely based on a "what if" scenario, and should not be taken as financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by thebettertraders
4