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Cycleanalysis

Bitcoin's 60-day Cycle path to another All-time highBitcoin's Next Big Move: The 60-Day & 24-Week Cycle in Action The crypto market is getting exciting again! When BTC dropped below $80K, people freaked out, calling for a bear market. But those who understand cycles knew this was just another bottom forming before the next move up. Premium Strategy Master members already knew which coins I loaded up on at the cycle lows. Why Did Bitcoin Crash Below $80K and Then Pump to $95K? Bitcoin moves in 60-day and 24-week cycles. A full 24-week cycle is made up of three 60-day cycles, and when we hit a weekly cycle bottom, the next 60-day cycle usually kicks off with a big pump. That’s exactly what we just saw! What’s Next for Bitcoin? We’re still in a bull market, and everything is lining up for more upside: The 2-week cycle indicator is dipping below 20 (oversold territory). The 1-week cycle indicator (red) just flipped up. The 3-day cycle indicator is also moving higher. This all points to Bitcoin pushing past $100K soon. On top of that, this is the start of a new 24-week cycle. The first 60-day cycle is almost always bullish, even in rougher market conditions, with at least 35-40 days of upward movement. Right now, we’re only on Day 3 of this fresh 60-day cycle, which means the market is primed for more upside.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheStrategyMaster
1
Bitcoin's 2025 Price Action Mirrors 2017 - Is History Repeating?Bitcoin Halving & The Trump Factor: A Historical Parallel Bitcoin's price action in 2025 is eerily reminiscent of the post-halving rally of 2017. In both cases, BTC saw a prolonged accumulation phase before a massive markup period. What's even more intriguing is how macro-political events align: Trump was elected in November 2016 , just before BTC went parabolic in 2017, and once again, he's elected in November 2024 , right before Bitcoin enters its explosive post-halving markup phase. Could this be more than just coincidence? Accumulation Phase Ends – The Markup Begins From November 9, 2024 , to February 28, 2025 , Bitcoin was in a 107-day accumulation phase . This mirrors previous post-halving cycles, where BTC consolidates in the Green HPR band before entering the next stage. Now, it appears we are entering the Markup Phase, where I expect Bitcoin to rally towards $120K+ in the coming months. Applying the 2017 Cycle to 2025 The 2017 bull run followed a 59:156:360-day cycle (Accumulation → Markup → Distribution). Using the same ratio and expanding it for 2025, I’ve projected a 107:280:646-day cycle , where: ✅ 107 days Accumulation (Completed!) 📈 280 days Markup (Just Beginning!) 📉 646 days Distribution & Declining (Post-Top Phase) This fractal projection aligns well with historical price action, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating this structure. BitBo’s Rainbow Regression Chart Confirms the Setup Looking at BitBo’s Bitcoin Rainbow Halving Price Regression Chart , BTC briefly dipped into the blue band , just like in 2017’s first wave. However, in both cases, Bitcoin quickly recovered within days and launched into its Markup phase , which is exactly what we’re seeing now! 🔹 Key Takeaway: Bitcoin is following its historic halving cycle patterns, and if history continues to rhyme, the next 280 days could be a wild ride to six-figure BTC prices! 🚀 Don't forget, Patience is Paramount
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by PatienceIsParamount
Our Cycle Analysis is in Play - What's Next on HTF? 🚀 Bitcoin Cycle Update – What’s Next? This setup is purely based on my higher timeframe (HTF) analysis, which I’ve shared before. If you’ve been following along, you already know the drill—I covered this in my last video breakdown on TradingView: 📽 Cycle Analysis Video: 📌 Tracking Idea: Bitcoin Cycle Analysis - Positioning & Market Outlook We loaded our final spot buys months ago and have been scaling out since November—not fully out, but we’ve booked profits on the majority of our Bitcoin and altcoin holdings over the last three months. 💰 Spot Bag Adds: BTC Spot Buys - Now, I’m still tracking a 3-Drive pattern for this cycle’s top. A previous 3-Drive setup on the daily was invalidated after choppy price action and sideways movement, but I’m still pursuing the same idea—just on the weekly and monthly timeframes now. 🔹 Key Zone: FWB:73K – $69K (Major SR level I’ve been watching) 🔹 Yealy Pivot Zone - 🔹 Time-Based Bias: Still refining my time analysis—so take it with a grain of salt 😅 USDT Dominance & Key Confluences One of the biggest confirmations I’m watching is USDT Dominance. I had been tracking an FVG around 4.9x%, which held for a week before breaking: 📈 USDT Dominance Chart: Right now, the focus is on trendline resistance & Fibonacci retracement levels. If USDT.D breaks higher, the idea is invalid, and I’ll simply keep riding my shorts. Execution Plan – How I’m Playing This This setup is strictly for spot buys. If you remember the last cycle, we accumulated BTC during the FTX crash at $18K and only added longs when we spotted a clear inverse head & shoulders setup. 🎯 This time, I’m placing spot bids & waiting for clear reactions. 🔹 Looking for WICKS into demand, NOT sideways chop. 🔹 If price chops, I EXIT—simple as that. 🔹 I’ll consider leverage positions ONLY when we see strong reactions. I’ll keep this idea updated just like before. At the end of the day, we’re all speculators—no one can predict the market, only manage risk and play probabilities. ⚠ Risk Management: DO NOT RISK MORE THAN 5% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO ON THIS SETUP. 📢 Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This is NOT financial advice—just sharing my thoughts and analysis. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Bromadic
XRP FINAL STEEP DISCOUNT OPPORTUNITY IS IMMINENTMy time-wave cycles analysis (among other components) indicating we will have a final sell wave to 1.45-1.7 zone over coming days (before FOMC meeting in March imo). Granted I was a little off on exact timing to reach the buy-side targets back in December but nonetheless accurate on projected price levels..See prior analysis at attached link for the projected high coming in at 3.1-3.3, exactly as it happened... I have no doubt this final sell wave will also occur. Depending on your goals & trading style, you may treat this next sell wave as an opportunity to simply add more at discounted levels via DCA'ing....or choose to sell at these relative highs to maximize position size once again from sub-1.70 levels.. I DO NOT EXPECT US TO SEE sub-3$ ANYTIMEagain after this next sell wave completes & then buyers take us to 4+ in q2 & beyond. Expecting this to be the FINAL steep discount buying opportunity for those interested in maximizing their capital purchasing power for long term speculative hodling Follow for additional actionable alerts & analysis. Appreciate the boosts & looking forward to your comments as well!
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by DaveTradesLive
Overdue for a strong correction before higher yet?Here is my current view of LC. Like many others, I never thought it would get this high in the first place. But following and adapting with this runaway longwinded bull, the funds are very long and as they unwind (it already looks to have started), it's gonna be a sharp downward move. There's good support and technical retracement down around the 190 region, but panic and momentum and long liquidation turning to even shorts could get thing uglier yet. I currently expect to eventually shoot back to new highs, perhaps targeting 220 region.
CME:LE1!Short
by farmerisland
2
Just an idea on Bitcoin and the cyclesFirst of all, Bitcoin is a programmable asset. Then there are cycles, not just with the markets, but with humans as well. There is always a chaos within the structures. Just like the atoms in our bodies. They move chaotic in space, but within the boundaries of a our cells. The order is just a well organized chaos. The First Bitcoin Super cycle is close to it's ending. The Second (mass adoption) Super cycle is knocking at the door. It is up to humanity to decide now, not "the the leaders or the riches". Cheers. It is not intended as a trading advice, nor it is. Just a research on markets I do. P.S. All the channels are equal in height on log...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Decentralized-Trade
SQ | Why Wallstreet is Bullish | LONGBlock, Inc. engages in creating ecosystems for distinct customer audiences. It operates through the Square and Cash App segments. The Square segment provides businesses the ability to accept card payments. The Cash App segment offers an ecosystem of financial products and services to help consumers manage their money. The company was founded by Jack Patrick Dorsey and James Morgan McKelvey in February 2009 and is headquartered in Oakland, CA.
NYSE:XYZLong
by DivergenceSeeker
Post-Holiday BTC Rallies: A Historical PerspectiveIdea: Over the past six years, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern: post-Christmas rallies. Let’s dive into the data and analyze what this could mean for the market this time around. Historical Context: In 5 out of the last 6 years, Bitcoin has seen significant gains shortly after the holiday season, with price increases ranging from 44% to an astonishing 272%. These rallies have been a consistent part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, making them an exciting opportunity for traders and investors. Key Observations: 2017/18: BTC rallied over 272%, marking the peak of an explosive bull market. 2019/20: A solid 44% gain during the recovery phase from the bear market bottom. 2020/21: Post-pandemic bull run fueled a 122% surge as BTC climbed to new highs. 2021/22: A rally of 90%, driven by retail and institutional adoption. 2022/23: Another impressive rally of 72% as the market recovered from a bear cycle. The only exception? 2018, the first phase of a brutal bear market, when market-wide sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish. This highlights a crucial insight: rallies are far less likely during early bear phases. What About This Year? 📊 Cyclicality is Key: Bitcoin’s price action has always been heavily influenced by cycles. With the market in a recovery phase following the 2022 lows, we could be on the verge of another post-holiday rally. 📈 Factors to Watch: Macro Sentiment: With inflation stabilizing and global markets recovering, Bitcoin is regaining strength. Institutional Interest: Continued interest in BTC ETFs and large-scale adoption could fuel upward momentum. Cyclical Patterns: The historical consistency of these rallies cannot be ignored. Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Case: If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin post significant gains over the next few months, potentially targeting new highs in 2025 as part of the broader bull cycle. 2️⃣ Bearish Case: If macroeconomic factors or unforeseen events trigger a pullback, the rally might be subdued, or Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase. Why This Matters: Understanding these cyclical patterns can provide a major edge for traders. The post-holiday season has been a lucrative time for Bitcoin in the past, and recognizing these opportunities could make all the difference. What are your thoughts? Will Bitcoin repeat history this year? Or are we in for a surprise? Share your ideas below!
by SetKryptoBalans
CRYPTO SUPER CYCLE 2024-2026:BEAR TO BULL ALL WHAT YOU NEED HERE🔄 CRYPTO MARKET CYCLES: MAJOR TRANSITION - FROM BEAR TO BULL 2024-2026 Technical Market Cycle Analysis: - Current price: $346.31 - Clear transition from bear to bull market - Three distinct cycles identified: BTC, ETH, ATLS Market Phase Breakdown: 📉 Bear Market (2022-2024): - Declining trend complete - Bottom formation validated - Accumulation phase ending 📈 Bull Market (2025-2026): - BTC cycle initiating bull run - ETH cycle following - ATLS cycle completing the sequence Key Observations: - "Traders confusion" zones marked at critical transitions - Clear cycle progression: BTC → ETH → ATLS - Market structure showing higher lows forming - Volume profile supporting bullish transition ⚠️ Critical Points: - Major market cycle shift in progress - Multiple timeframe alignment - Clear cycle rotation pattern - Historical pattern repetition 🔔 Market Intelligence: - Bull market projected until end of 2026 - Three distinct crypto cycles identified - Clear market phase transitions - Institutional accumulation evident #CryptoMarketCycles #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #MarketPhases Want detailed cycle breakdown? 📊FOLLOW ME
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by Supachai-Taechapisit
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles Cycle Analysis: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes: ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase) Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2% Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11% Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes: ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase) Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94% Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93% Projection for Cycle 4: Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth: Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000 (Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors) Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200% (Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains) Projected Loss: Around 70-75% (Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation) Each cycle shows a pattern of: Reduced percentage gains Slightly improved loss recovery Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price ATH Calculation: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x Observed Growth Multiplier Trend: Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x Projection Approach: Lower Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative) Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000 Upper Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic) Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91 Gain Percentage Calculation: Cycle 1: 52,287.39% Cycle 2: 12,804.2% Cycle 3: 1,976.94% Observed Decline Pattern: Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage Projected Gain Range: Lower bound: 600-800% Upper bound: 1000-1200% Loss Percentage Trend: Cycle 1: 86.9% Cycle 2: 83.11% Cycle 3: 75.93% Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement) Methodology Notes: Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers Considered logarithmic growth pattern Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles Disclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpkxyz
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles. "Crypto is an expression of Macro." The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation. Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets. In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management: 1. Quantitative Easing (QE) The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention: - Prevented a complete economic collapse - Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets - Kept interest rates artificially low - Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession 2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management: - Coordinated interest rate decisions - Shared information about economic interventions - Created global liquidity pools 3. Cyclical Liquidity Management The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through: - Periodic liquidity injections - Strategic interest rate adjustments - Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of: - 2-3 years of expansionary policy - Followed by a contraction or normalization period This cycle typically involves: - Expanding money supply - Lowering interest rates - Supporting asset prices - Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions. This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jpkxyz
XrpUsd - The beginning of the end?BITSTAMP:XRPUSD is actually attempting to invalidate my long term bullish case scenario. Trading cryptocurrencies in general is not easy. You always experience two digit moves in single days and drops of -10% are never easy to digest. Looking at the higher timeframes is key though, also on XrpUsd. XrpUsd is still trading in the triangle formation and retesting the last bullish inflection point. My general optimism tells me that we will see a bullish rejection here. Levels to watch: $0.42 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by basictradingtv
38
BTC/USD Bitcoin bull-run peak and the next 1-2yr downtrendI haven't posted anything in a very long time so here goes: We can clearly see that BTC/USD is still continuing to follow a Cycle Pattern of 8-Bars (8x 6 month candles) so around 1461 days of a full cycle. Note that each half cycle is between 730-731 days. Following this pattern, technically the BTC/USD Bullrun should peak on the 6 month candle starting July 2025. This does not mean that the upcoming 6 month candle before starting 1st Jan 2025 has to be bullish, only that the next 6 month candle starting 1st July 2025 ends bullish or at least creates a new ATH within that 6 month candle. If this pattern holds true, the 6 month candle starting 1st Jan 2026 will take us into another 1 1/2 year to 2 year long downtrend until the cycle reverse to the uptrend on the 6 month candle starting 1st July 2027. But as we can clearly see, the bottom of a downtrend can potentially be on the previous 6 month candle before the upwards Sign Wave such as we have seen previously on the 1st Jan 2015, 1st July 18 and 1st July 2022 6 month candles. That's it. Enjoy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
Cardano - Repeating the +3.000% bullish cycle!CRYPTO:ADAUSD is creating price action like back in 2020 and we might see a rally soon. Looking at the higher timeframes allows you to massively capitalize on overall market swings and cycles. Especially when it comes to Cardano, these cycles are pretty rewarding but also pretty predictable. At the moment, Cardano is repeating price action; we saw the same pattern playing out in 2020 and this break and retest was followed by a rally of +3.000% Levels to watch: $0.42, $0.25 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
CRYPTO:ADAUSDLong
by basictradingtv
38
BTC's Rhythm, it likes 3...3 is a powerful concept in our existence. Body/Mind/Spirit. Positive/Negative/Neutral. Father/Son/Holy Ghost. You get the idea. BTC is no different. In this chart, 0 (at the bottom, fib time) is anchored to Halvings. The period between Halvings gives us 0.33 and 0.66; one third and two thirds of the cycle respectively. In splitting the chart time up this way, a clear pattern emerges (for the past Decade or so). From Halving to 0.33, BTC tends to Rally hard (Parabola Phase). From 0.33 to 0.66, BTC tends to Correct. From 0.66 to 0 (next Halving), BTC Tends to put in a Bottom/Base. While past performance does NOT indicate future results, history does tend to rhyme. Will this time be different? Will institutional adoption alter this cycle? Will the maturing of BTC as a Global Asset change the cadence of its growth? Only time will tell. So far this Halving is holding true to past rhymes. If, and that's a BIG IF, it continues to follow this chart... our current Parabola should endure thru ~~ Aug '25; At which point a heavy correction is quite likely. If we see structure breaking to the downside (on the weekly timeframe), then perhaps this time IS different; as that has not occurred in previous "Parabola" Phases. This gives us a clear invalidation of this theory. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
BNC:BLXLong
by mrjones2020
2