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Cycleanalysis

Gold has already started the new bullish cycleMedium-term Gold forecast. The corrective cycle that started 2 years ago has finally ended, and we have already started the new bullish cycle. This cycle is wave 5 (orange) and is expected to reach at least the 2,100 level. We bought Gold when the price was in the Inflection Zone (green area). At this moment, we are risk-free and waiting for the confirmation of the bullish sequence to try to enter again, targeting smaller timeframes corrective cycles. We will keep you posted when this opportunity appears. Have a fantastic trading day.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradingtheRightSide
GBPUSD Selling opportunityHello traders, Today we want to share our view of the GBPUSD. The long-term cycle is bearish and we believe there will be at least one more swing low or, in other words, another bearish cycle. This idea has the target of taking profit from this bearish cycle, There are two potential paths as we showed in the graph 1- Our forecast is that GBPUSD will have to make another high before reaching the green area (which is the expected target the corrective structure WXY should reach before turning down) and then, we will sell GBPUSD 2- Alternative path- The price will not reach the area and GBPUSD has already ended 4 and it will start this last bearish cycle before reaching the green area In both cases, in the medium term, we expect GBPUSD to go down. Therefore, we can prepare in shorting the GBPUSD soon. TRS team
Short
by TradingtheRightSide
Bear Market, Bull Market, or Sector Rotation? KNOW THE ROTATION! What Is Sector Rotation? Investors are always looking for opportunities to boost returns and reduce risk in their portfolios. One way to do this is by understanding and utilizing sector rotation. In simple terms, sector rotation is the process of moving money from one sector to another. In order to take advantage of positive market trends investors will want to pay close attention to these rotations. In general, there are two types of market conditions that investors need to be aware of: bull markets and bear markets. Sector rotation is a strategy that investors use to take advantage of these market conditions. The idea is to rotate your investments into sectors that are doing well in the current market conditions and away from sectors that are not. For example, in a historical bull market, you would want to be invested in sectors such as technology and healthcare. In a bear market, you would want to be invested in sectors such as utilities and consumer staples. Sector rotation can be a helpful tool for investors to boost returns and reduce risk. However, it’s important to understand how it works before implementing it in your own portfolio. Keep reading to learn more about sector rotation and some current YTD chart examples of what it looks like. Lets start with a philosophical question in regards to the market; is there really such thing as a bull and bear market? One could argue that there is not, and the market is in fact a cycle of sector rotations. Liquidity going out one, to another, again and again. Take for example the 4 tickers of the main post image MSFT , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:GOOGL , NASDAQ:AAPL - these are considered Tech Stocks (yes TSLA is a tech stock!). YTD performance of all these stocks are in the red. Please take the time and study their trends. To the novice that had a portfolio made up of 80% tech, they would look at this chart and scream BEAR MARKET. But is it? It is impossible for the average trader to tell, but not all that money was "lost" in a bear market. It simply was rotated to defensive sectors. Sure, some money was taken out of the overall system I am sure but logic dictates that the majority of the money just found a new home. Investors in tech in these cases could ride the storm and average down (dollar cost averaging), write call options, or purchase puts (along with many other strats) - aka play a bear market in THAT sector. The terms "bull" and "bear" market are used to describe market conditions where prices are either rising or falling. Some people believe that there is a fundamental difference between the two types of markets, while others believe that they are simply two sides of the same coin. Ultimately, there is no right or wrong answer, and it is up to each individual to decide what they believe. So where did the Tech money rotate to? For those of you that need only bull markets to trade, find the rotation and follow it. Never marry a stock or sector - money moves fast and is prone to jumping ship when major events happen. Here are 3 charts that show areas that bulls have had success: EX1: Staples and Consumer; NYSE:HSY , NYSE:MCD , NASDAQ:OLLI , NYSE:WMT EX2: Energy, Industrial, Insurance; NYSE:KMI , NYSE:CAT , NYSE:OXY , NYSE:ABBV EX3: Defensive and Insurance; NASDAQ:HON , NYSE:RTX , NYSE:AFL , NYSE:CI If you take the time and study the charts above you will see that not all is bearish when you know where to look. Looking at these rotations can start to paint a larger picture when studying ETFs or the overall market in a national/global economy. Especially when it comes to finding a fair value area in the middle of a downed market. Recovery off of a bear market should be equitable across multiple sectors. In the current case (today) we see that the rotation into "defensive" stocks (all the stocks mention in EX1, EX2, and EX3). As there is a small pinch of hope that inflation could be slowing, the moves have been liquidity into these defensive sectors - not a sign of a healthy recovery (yet) in my opinion. Right now we are seeing more institutional interest in companies like HSY, MRK, CI, HON and less interest in Energy. Energy is a great sector to look at currently to start to see that shift. We can look at commodities like GOLD and see the increased attention and bullish run it has had recently. Remember, intuitions want to create the largest positions they can , but over time so as not to raise a flag to others. To find sector rotation: 1) Familiarize yourself with the S&P sector funds like the AMEX:XLF , AMEX:XLP , AMEX:XLE , AMEX:XLU , etc START LARGE - look at the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily 2) Scan for stocks with rapid price drops and identify sectors that may be hurting 3) Scan for stocks with rapid rising price WITH higher than average volume (preferable increasing volume as well) 4) Visualize the sectors in a heatmap. Size by Volume (Monthly) and Color by Performance (Monthly). Since this is constantly changing, I suggest taking a screen shot of this map every week - this will be the best way to "see" the money rotate. 5) When going through 2-4 consider comparing small and large cap companies as well - as this too can hold its own rotation. 6) Stay on top of news, read read read read. Understand the world around you and rely on change. 7) Utilize Smart Money Concepts. Please visit LUX ALGO's page for this, as he has made a beautiful indicator and strategy based around SMI and institutional order blocks. 8) Conduct an RSI or Stochastic RSI study to identify divergences in OVERBOUGHT or OVERSOLD conditions. 9) VIX VIX VIX - yes we are talking sector rotation and the VIX is an "overall" reflection of the market in whole but looking at areas of the VIX (ie 20 and 45) can give signs of upcoming rotation. Although it may not point where, it may describe when these rotations can occur. If you like this post and would like a more detailed follow up, please comment below so I can see your interest. This is a very extensive topic in which it may take several posts to fully write out in detail. This is post 1 and meant to be an introduction, as I know that almost every line below can be heavily expanded upon. Happy trading everyone!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by OccamsPhazer
The Bitcoin Experiment!First off I want to say, don't take this as gospel. This is a chart to follow bitcoin and plot it's path using math and it's trend patterns to date. The time sequences from a factor of 1.4, 1.5 and 1.6 are what the math shows me 1.4 Multiple being the trend from establishment (support) to trend end 1.44 Multiple is the breakthrough to the trend end 1.5 Multiple is the breakthrough to peak (Shaded area) You follow chart this until it's voided 1.6 Multiple is from peak to peak (Long Green arrow) This math is using the second peak in November 2021 1.3 is the multiple using the first peak in April 2021 (shorter green line), which puts the second parabola and final top of the trend in July of 2031. History might not repeat exactly but it does seem to follow the patterns fairly closely. Using math sequences we might be able to figure out approximate moves fairly closely. For this chart to have present or very near timeline validity, the next few bars should push up against the blue line as resistance just as it did on the red line in 2014. So, Let's wait and see into December to see what happens. The blue and red regression trend shows a similar pattern with three waves down until the final plunge of the trend line break through. If accurate, this chart can help you navigate through the Bitcoin timeline, as it can help you see what stage it is in, or at least to get a better grasp of the moves. Please feel free to comment your thoughts below Thank you for looking WeAreSatoshi Stay Blessed!
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
6
TWITTER: Musk announced permanent bansElon Musk said yesterday that Twitter users who have created fictitious profiles impersonating other users without labeling them as “parodies” will be permanently banned from the said social networking platform without warning. In a separate post on Twitter, Musk said that in the past, the platform would issue a warning before suspending a profile, but as Twitter evolves a broad user verification process, there will be no such warning. Also, there will be no “exceptions”. This will be a condition for signing up for Twitter Blue, adding that any name change would cause the user to lose their identity verification token. They will not be allowed back on Twitter until the said social networking platform has “a clear process for doing so”. Organizing such a process will take at least a few weeks, clarifying the timing of the possible return of Twitter’s most famous user, former President Donald Trump, who has been banned. The new timeline suggests Trump won’t be back before midterm congressional elections on November 08. Twitter had a huge drop in revenue due to activist groups pressuring advertisers, even though nothing changed in terms of content moderation and everything was done to appease activists. Musk’s fortune has shrunk by about 35%, to $209.4 billion since its peak on Nov. 4, 2021, from $320.3 billion, and the almost-sole reason for this decline is the decline in Tesla stock. Over the past year, Musk has sold $31 billion worth of Tesla stock to finance his takeover of Twitter and take it private. Since the deal has not been finalized, Forbes calculates the value of the cash (minus taxes) earned from these sales at their net worth. But the row over the Musk-Twitter deal has alienated investors, who believe Musk will pay an exorbitant amount to acquire the social networking platform and that he is recklessly selling Tesla stock to finance the deal. From Elliott wave perspective, on the weekly chart we see Twitter trading in big bullish sideways running triangle pattern that can take some time before we will see a bullish break-out, as final wave E can be still missing. On a daily chart we are tracking a three-wave (A)-(B)-(C) rally within wave D that can find the resistance around 60 level and from where we should be aware of another slow down within wave E that can retest 40-30 support zone before it takes-off.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by ew-forecast
1
$BTC Wyckoff Markup 15m - Midweek DistributionHi guys, So bullish news on Bitcoin, which means we should all buy now, right? Bitcoin is pumping and now we're getting on our rocket ships to mars. Not so fast. Rishi Sunak has become the Prime Minister of the UK, and it is said that he is a fan of Bitcoin and used to be an institutional trader, which is very good news in regards to the British economy and the British pound. I recently got out of my large short 'position' on the pound after a year of keeping all of my savings in USD even though my home currency is GBP because I saw a devaluation of the pound coming. Back to Bitcoin; as I have been saying for weeks, I am seeing a relief rally up to $28-32k and we have now broken out with this good news. But now is not the time to go long. Over the last couple of days we have been seeing a wyckoff markup pattern as shown below: www.investopedia.com():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(webp)/dotdash_Final_Making_Money_The_Wyckoff_Way_CSC_DNR_Jul_2020-01-f62425effeb9422fb7ac34ad83c1f963.jpg Which can also be seen as an Elliott Wave 5-wave structure. This is how prices react to good news. Now, what I am seeing is a midweek distribution, which is quite common in weekly market patterns, before a dump towards the demand zone, shown in red at the bottom of the chart. images.prismic.io Cheers for reading and let me know what you think, Tchau
by joshuashepherd877
2
BTC: ~ $ SYSTEMCTL START DEPLOY.CAPITALBTC: ~ $ /PRICE/BOTTOM/STRATEGY.PH Script started on SATURDAY 18 JUN 2022 08:13:33 PM UTC DCA="Weekly" DURATION="Price is sideways" EXCEPTION="BTFD!" $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ BTC: ~ $ ^C BTC: ~ $ BTC: ~ $ BTC: ~ $ /ETC/INIT.D/WYCKOFF_ACCUMULATIOND STOP Continue? (y): Y DXY.TOP....................................................................................................... BOLlINGER_BAND.SHRINK.................................................................................. BTC: ~ $ BTC: ~ $ SYSTEMCTL START BTC.PAMP -T 30K+ | ECHO "YELLOW_PATTERN" ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ #PS: Do you recognize that YELLOW PATTERN? It is copy of the price action from May-August 2021! # I have put it there in June when I felt THE BOTTOM MIGHT BE IN = still nearly mimics it so far =) # Was expecting to see a Lower Low fakeout for the so called "SPRING" to trigger the pump but.... # PURPLE LINE = ATOM -> it has been outperforming BTC and everything last few months! ⚛️🚀
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by u3KbPTeH
Cycles of BitcoinIn weekly time units and in logarithmic scale, we can see that the cycles of Bitcoin have been based on technical support since 2010. This support gave way only once during the panic of the world stock exchanges in March 2020, due to the Covid 19 pandemic. This representation shows that Bitcoin is probably on the low of the current cycle (end of cycle) and that it will never return below $17,500, except in the event of a new global crisis which could cause the price to fall below its historical support. The same analysis done in February 2019: My analysis on the end of the current bear market:
BNC:BLXLong
by Bitcoin_Weather
3
Identifying significant bottoms in Bitcoin Bear CyclesHey all! I've been looking at long term charts for quite a while, trying to find some pattern to help me identify and find the dreaded "price bottom" everyone longs for. Here's a model/pattern I've found out in the chart, which eerily seems to be accurate across past cycles, and we just yet might be finishing it off as well this time. There are several predicates I have to put before the analysis: This is NOT financial advice and should be used for entertainment purpose only! I'm using two-week candles to have as little noise as possible while having more data points than when using Monthly candles. RSI - Major level for RSI is 50; when RSI is above 50, I consider we are in bull-market and going up. Basically every time we went above 50 and held it as support, we never looked below 50 before reaching the cycle price top. - Another major indicator is the Moving Average on RSI. As per usual, if MA is going up, the price goes up and until the direction switches, prices will go up. Breaking the MA as support and holding it as resistance starts the new bear market and prices dropping. - Since this analysis focuses on the "bottom", I'm going to talk mainly about what happens after RSI breaks the MA and it reaches level 50 from above. StochRSI - as per definition, major levels are level 20 and 80. - All major price points I'll talk about happen below level 20. PMAR & PMARP - I'm using PMARP - major level is between ~25-30; We tend to touch or go below this level in bear markets - The Moving Average (SMA) is very important and I'll be using it in my analysis as well. As you can see, there are 9 orange vertical lines, I call them simply "#point 1-9". These are actually describing the "same" event in different times across the Bitcoin history. I will completely omit any price charting, the price is only pinpointing my analysis, however be sure to notice, the orange #points are showing INDICATOR significant levels, NOT price levels (even though they go hand-in-hand). The story must be explained on each of the three indicators, for each of the three-points I'm using. So let's start! #point 1, 4, 7 RSI - RSI went below MA (yellow line), and reached the ~50 level for the first time since quite a while. - On this occasion, the level 50 holds as SUPPORT StochRSI - First visit of <20 lows since hitting highs of >80 - Usually goes even below 5, or as low as 0 on this occasion. PMARP - First time reaching level ~26-30 since breaking the MA (white line) On this occasion, we are hitting first major lows on all indicators (and price of course as well). However, every time, there is a small bounce, but this bounce is short-lasting, invevitably heading for next points. #point 2, 5, 8 RSI - First time RSI does not hold 50 as support and breaks below this level. It will likely retest this level as resistance but fail to hold it as support for any prolong period of time. StochRSI - Another point being <20, most likely hitting <5 again. PMARP - Hitting level ~26-30 again or going first time BELOW it. After our first set, we had a brief rally, only to get crushed even more below our support levels on all three indicators. Price can be the same or lower than on previous point, but we know there is #point 3/6/9 coming up, as this is not the bottom just yet... #point 3, 6, 9 RSI - Hits absolute bottom, it will NOT go below this level until the next bear market. StochRSI - Again (or still) hitting levels <20, most likely <5 even. Looks like any momentum is completely dead. PMARP - Hitting new lower-low, this value will not be visited again before reaching next bear market. - #point 9 is an outlier - other points were rejected from MA after previous point AND before reaching this low, not the case for #point 9; However, what we DID have, was a rejection from MA on PMARP before #point 8 printed, which could count as well. This last point in each cycle is very special, as there are many similarities and some differences between each points. The most important aspect is, that at these points, the indicators were at their absolute bottoms, and very similar story followed for #points 3/6, we are yet to see if they will happen for #point 9 as well. So what happens next? RSI - In my eyes, the bull-market is over whenever RSI goes below 50. And on the contrary, the bear market is over when RSI goes above 50 and decisively holds it as support. - When last point prints, the RSI must retake firstly the MA (which tends to be lower than 50), and next it must go above 50. Once it does, the bull market is officially on. - You can notice interesting "similar" timeframes for following: - Going below MA (yellow line), and going above 50 level took 45 bars (Jan 2014 - Oct 2015), and 35 bars (Dec 2017 - Apr 2019). If we take 45 bars on our current cycle, we are looking at Mar 2021 - Dec 2022 if you take first break of MA (the same as previous points) - After going above level 50 (and holding it as support), it took 57 bars before we decisively broke the MA in 2017/18 bull-market, and 51 bars in 2019-2021 bull market. Since we are not above level 50 right now, it's hard to say when the next RSI break might be, but if we use our previous estimate of 45 bars from MA break to 50 level break, and use "average" of 51 and 57 bars, we are pointing for RSI breaking the MA from above again in Jan 2025; but this is pure speculation right now. StochRSI - Important level when coming from <20 is of course the level 20, and 40 as well. Once both levels are held as support (and possibly retested more times), the bull market might just be allowed to start, - For #point 3/6, the first time we "touched" level 20 on StochRSI after these points printed, we never went below level 20 again until the next bear market. - NOTE: Reaching 80 the first time does NOT have to mean the bull market is starting - this has to be connected with the RSI being above 50 as well - then you can be "sure" it won't go down again until next bear market. PMARP - Similarly to RSI, PMARP has two objectives - retake MA (white line), hold it as support and then go above level ~26-30 and hold that as support. - There are also similar timeframes for notable objectives done by PMARP: - Breaking the MA (white line) from ABOVE, to break it again from BELOW took 28 and 29 bars. If it were to take 29 bars this time "again", it points to Dec 2022 (same as RSI using 45 bars, see above) - the last point is a bit of an outlier, since PMARP went above it's MA briefly during Oct 2021, so I consider the "last" break from ABOVE in this timeframe. - Time between #point 3 and 6, when PMARP last touched the MA, to next time it did the same after given point was reached, took 100 bars. If we use this same timeframe, we are looking to break the MA on PMARP from BELOW in Dec 2022 (again the same date!) To summarize: - All things considered, I think we've already found our "three bottoms" as we did have in previous bear markets as well. This does NOT mean price cannot go lower (cascading liquidations for example), but I'd argue that the INDICATOR bottoms are IN! - Using similar timeframes, it might seem we could break the indicator major resistance around Dec 2022. This does not mean the price will be higher then than it is now! - Again, I'm not saying price bottom has been reached. - Critique and comments are welcome. I'm newb TA-junkie, this is not professional work and it's the first Idea I've written. - This is not financial advice, DYOR.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by donach
HARTA long term bullish reversal w/ confirmation. 30/Sept/22Harta have long term bullish reversal setup with confirmation entry! Harta’s stock price By breaking wave b (cyan) the subwave of last impulsive leg down which is wave (v)(Red) confirmed a reversal signal for down trend Since August 2020...P/s people asking if you are so good why just don’t “keep yourself?!” R u trying to show off? Selling signals or looking for investors? Not at all. As we know, 1 ways to improve our trading, traders is to write down their “trading journal” instead of “keeping myself “ I write down AND Let “the public” to be “my judge” would be “more motivated “ to correct my mistake..
MYX:HARTA
by SteveTan
DXY & FED FUNDS RATE2 day Time frame update of Quarterly DXY chart below.... DXY shown here with macro harmonics, contrasted with historic Fed Funds rate. Arrows indicate BTC cycle lows put in well below prior DXY peaks, and serves a small dose of balancing hopium in an otherwise bearish market. Fractal is taken loosely from the circled areas, with the suggested path involving consolidation in the 115/117- 105/8 range into next year. Hypothesis: as developed nations step in to intervene to prop up their currencies, by tightening ( central bank rate hikes like we are seeing from BOE and Swedish Central Bank in the last week) and potentially tapping into their long end US Treasury reserves to purchase dollars ad buy back their own currency, as late last week's BOJ intervention suggests, DXY will consolidate but ultimately break up into the 119-low 120's before some cooling off. Noteworthy technical macro ascending channel with 4-5 confirming touches which we are now closely approaching. With S&P P/E rations in the 18's we may start to see sidelined institutional investors start to enter the market at the 15-17 mark, as at this juncture with real negative rates dominating financial conditions, equities begin to service portfolios as a hedge against inflation. ***Harmonics are merely noteworthy phenomena, and not intended or regarded by myself as predictive of future price movements in any way.
TVC:DXY
by Linneaus