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Cycleanalysis

$BTC Personal #shortterm #expectationThis is how I expect BTC to move until 14th of Feb, which is my birthday (world around the sun, yaay! / valentinas day, boo / lupercalia, haa?). Let's see whether stock2flow model and cycles model will be a gift for my birthday, or not (: In any case, for friends who came here, please read about #blockchain as technology to prepare yourself for next #laborfilter . And contact me personally for anything related with #DAO 's (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations). I am only interested in #nonprofit #remotefirst possibilities. Regards.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bparlan
BTC HTF Log View + Fib Time for Jan 4th 2022Appear to have found a potentially epic Fib time, starting from the very beginning of BTCs recorded upward thrust. Thought some might be interested, so am deciding to publish this chart. Note it catches the last cycle high almost perfectly, as well as the most recent high at the 4.618. Fib time 5 shows up on Jan 4th 2022. This is closely aligned with many analysts prediction of near the end of this Bull cycle. There is a simple fan drawn of the tops. The top of the last 2 major bull cycles trend line is in the middle, and intersects with Fib time 5 showing in the area of $344K. Which is also closely aligned with many predictions of BTC hitting in the 6 digit range this cycle. Note the Fib retracement is from the absolute bottom to the absolute top of BTCs recorded history. This current retracement is hitting very strong resistance right now. The Fib retracement "Golden Pocket" of the entire chart is roughly between $24.7K and $22K, with the last cycle high being just under $20K hanging out below. I'm not sure BTC can rally $300K+ in 6 months, but... what do you think? If nothing else, looks to be an interesting next couple of months.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DestinyJV
1
BTCDAltseason is almost done as we are close to completing W5 of this BTCD bear market. 36% or there about will be a double bottom. I think there are a few possible outcomes after the W5 is complete. 1. BTC Sells off back down to $20k zone & Alts get super wrecked. 2. BTC Sells off but at some point the dynamic switches from BTCD up BTC & ALTS down to BTCD up and BTC up & Alts flat to up. I am leaning towards number 2 because I bulleve we are still early in the grand Super-cycle and EOY $288k is very likely.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by Big_Mike716
2
BTCUSD - Understanding Cycles (RSI, Diagonal Trendlines, Angles)***the chart refuses to stay in postition. I have tried 7 times, but after publishing, the horizontal lines are still in the incorrect place. Drag the screen to the left and they will go into place. See below for accurate screenshot. Annoying! Anyone know how to fix this? I am not sharing any more personal analysis starting from today. Reason: You can't find what you are not looking for. 1. Look at the chart. 2. Hover cursor over the note symbols. 3. Breath. 4. What do you see? 5. Leave thoughts in comments down below, yo. Here are a copy of the notes from the chart: 1b) Cycle #1 Bull Market Trendline 1d) Cycle #1 Bear Market Trendline 2a) Price Crosses Above Cycle #1 Bear Market Trendline = New Bull Market Confirmed 2b) Cycle #2 Bull Market Trendline 2c) Price Hits Cycle #1 Bull Market Trendline = End of Bull Market #2 2d) Cycle #2 Bear Market Trendline 3a) Price Crosses Above Cycle #2 Bear Market Trendline = New Bull Market Confirmed 3b) Cycle #3 Bull Market Trendline What's Your Angle? Cycle #1 Bull Market : 22° Cycle #2 Bull Market : 16° Cycle #3 Bull Market : 11° Cheers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by fifty2kph
Bitcoin's end of the bull run?Personally I feel the bull run is over. I was here in december 2017 and the same FUD was spread around this time in the cycle. But that is a gut feeling. The charts tell me another story. The vertical red lines are the past halving. Looking at the time since the halving of 2020 we are 330 days into the bull run. In 2017 at the same point in the cycle we saw a massive dip in the bitcoin price. Just like now. We still had to go up to the 2017 ATH on day 523 of the cycle. What if the timing of this cycle is the same? In that case we can expect a €113.000 bitcoin in november. Wouldn't that be something?
by Christopher_Cross
3
WYCKOFF'S DISTRIBUTION #1: Are Bears Strong Enough?Hello everyone! In this analysis, I present the Wyckoff's theory regarding the distribution phase, some other indicators reinforcing it and why I believe Bitcoin is losing power right now. It looks like Bitcoin is perfectly following every single step of it and any trader should be cautious about it. * If you are not familiar with Wyckoff's theory, you can take a look at this image and use it as a comparison: i.redd.it As shown in the chart above, so far, we've completed phases A, B and C with its respective events. The run to the ATH may have set the top for a while, indicated by the UTAD, being the last strong move of the trend. According to the theory, we should expect a down trend from now on, going thourgh phases D and E in the following days. The relevant levels to watch and a key factor are presented below, according to some other analyses: • Elliott wave : We could draw an Elliott wave starting at the Bitcoin's bottom @ ~3000 USD. In this case, we have potentially just completed wave 3 after a 1500% gain and the price would now start to correct in wave 4. This comes as a confluence with the distribution theory. Trying to find targets for this move, we could use the Fibonacci retracement. Elliott's theory says we should expect wave 4 to retrace no more than 38.2% of wave 3. So I believe the lowest level Bitcoin could go to during this correction/distribution would be around 22k and that's huge! It would mean a 65% correction . However, that level is not guaranteed, as the price could retrace much less than that, maybe to 33k, where we have another Fibo level or even any other support we may found during this down trend. Anyway, it will be a very nice opportunity to reaccumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, aiming for the following wave 5 in the future. If this is correct, some patience may be needed. According to Elliott's theory, wave 4 can take some time to be developed. I'm expecting it to be similar to wave 2, so we would have several weeks of down trend ahead. • Trading Psychology : If you are a crypto enthusiast, you may recognize everyone is still very bullish about Bitcoin and influencers are yelling BUY THE DIP at pretty much every single red candle we have on the daily chart. That's dangerous! Let's take a look at a common argument they have: the 50 day moving average. Overbullish people tend to say buying when the price touches this line is a good buy . Well, it is untill it turns to a good bye ! Take a look at the current situation below. The 50MA is represented by the green line. We are at this level once again and many people are buying. However, take a look now at 2017's top. A similar situation happened and I'm sure many people have bought and got rekt right there! "Be cautious and fearfull when others are greed." Remember very few people have sold the top in 2017, most of them were expecting higher highs. The top must come someday, and it's usually when no one is expecting... >Now, the bullrun may not be over yet. We might see a double top's run similar to 2013. Also, thats what the Elliot wave shown above tells us. The current correction should correspond to wave 4. There's still a great run for wave 5 in the future. >> Many other bearish indicators show us we should expect the market to move downwards in the short term. I'll avoid extending this analysis for too long, so there is a link below to one of my previous ideas which I present several bearish indicators in confluence with the current scenario, such as the multiple divergences, Pi Cycle's top and chart patterns. Make sure to check it out! ** This analysis would be invalidated if we end up crossing the ATH once again. It is still a very good risk/reward situation we have here. At this point, it would be very ignorant not to consider all of this. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section below. Safe tradings, everyone!
BNC:BLXShort
by B4Baggio
6