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Cycleanalysis

Mar 8 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: An analysis for this historic week ahead. Points of Interest: Fib clusters at 2710, 200 moving average, failure to get above key retracement levels, Friday $VIX pop to $50+ and break out of balance. Technical: Failed to get above key retracement levels (i.e., 50% and 61.8%). Poor structure (untested POCs or the levels where most amount of the volume was traded -- fairest price to transact) created by the market getting too long, beneath /ES February high, were erased in the initial correction, while /NQ still has untested POCs below from 8070 to 7550. The bounce on Feb 28 into a balance zone failed to take out a VPOC at the 3140.50 level. In my opinion, the virus-related news is the match that lit the fire (i.e., this was coming). Friday, we finally broke out of -- gapped below -- a multi-day balance that was trending up, mechanically, along a slanted trendline. My belief, going into last week was that we would get a recovery similar to what was seen in the beginning of 2018. I now think the circumstances warrant a move lower, especially considering Friday’s value area and POC which were at the lows, prior to the end-of-day rally which indicated the potential for maybe a continuation into the next session, all-else-equal. I’ve studied that downmoves will rarely end until we put in some sort of excess low. We went from bear to balance to bear again with Sunday night taking out the Feb 28 lows. Sunday’s open gapped and traded below October’s low, accepting the initial downmove price spike on Feb 28. Downside /ES Fib Target 2710 based on a cluster of multiple extensions and retracements meeting in one place. Time from Feb 20 top to Feb 28 bottom = Time from Jan 18 top to Feb 18 bottom Time from Dec 18 bottom to Feb 20 top = Time from Mar 09 bottom To Apr 10 high /NQ POCs: NQ1! Index Analysis: $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA Fundamental: U.S. Expansion: “Economic activity expanded at a modest to moderate rate over the past several weeks, according to the majority of Federal Reserve Districts” (bit.ly). "Outlooks for the near-term were mostly for modest growth with the coronavirus and the upcoming presidential election cited as potential risks." Employment: “The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market was on solid footing despite the coronavirus outbreak, which has stoked financial market fears of a recession and prompted an emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve,” according to Reuters (reut.rs). Talk Of Credit Crisis: According to Bloomberg, the fear that a coronavirus-panic and slowdown may cause a credit crisis was ignited this week after financial conditions tightened despite the Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut (bloom.bg). Now, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 100% chance that rates will be cut at the next Fed meeting (bit.ly). Adding, Bloomberg suggests that signs of stress in the credit market are apparent through multiple channels; credit card and loan delinquencies are appearing on the consumer lending front, while across the world, “Non-bank companies have drastically upped their leverage since the last crisis, as treasurers have taken advantage of historically low interest rates” (bloom.bg). The same article alleges that this increase is debt and leverage is a problem, even in a low rate environment, due to the “profitability drought that is making it harder for companies to service debts.” “V-Shaped” Recovery: Despite the rapid increase in coronavirus cases (bit.ly) across the rest of the world, China seems to be recovering. According to Bloomberg, “Reservations for domestic flights and hotels in China are recovering from a coronavirus-induced slump as people return to work across the nation” (bloom.bg). Additionally, Chinese cargo flows at ports are recovering, according to Freight Waves (bit.ly). Slowdown Arrives Elsewhere: Countries like Italy have seen a rapid rise in deaths (nbcnews.to) and international travel is getting beat hard; “Travel analytics company ForwardKeys found that flight bookings to Italy fell by nearly 139% in the final week of February, compared with a year ago, the Washington Post reported,” according to Axios (bit.ly). The slowdown in travel is expected to cause almost $113 billion in loses for airlines, according to Guardian (bit.ly). Fear Prevails: Some speculation around last week’s sell-off after the emergency rate cut was fed-induced fear -- “A quick response might exacerbate the market sell-off because it could suggest panic on the part of policymakers. It may also be ineffective because monetary policy moves such as rate cuts typically take a while to feed through to the broader economy,” according to Reuters (reut.rs). Falling Dollar: The dollar has fallen “under the weight of expected rate cuts form the Fed and record-low U.S. Treasury yields,” according to Axios (bit.ly). This is important to take note of because -- according to the same article -- “Multinational companies prefer a weak dollar because it makes U.S. exports cheaper overseas, but it also makes imported goods more expensive for American consumers and can push inflation higher.” As a result, a falling dollar may pressure bottom lines. Sentiment: 38.7% Bullish, 21.6% Neutral, 39.6% Bearish as of 3/8/2020. (bit.ly) In The News: “Bruno Braizinha at Bank of America had this perspective, earlier this week: When we abstract from the near-term noise and volatility and refocus on year-end scenarios we find two limiting cases: (1) a U.S. recession scenario with the pricing of the Fed to the Zero Lower Bound, which implies 20 basis points for two-year Treasuries and 50-80 basis points for 10-year Treasuries; or (2) an upswing back to trend growth as the coronavirus outbreak dissipates, which likely implies a Fed on hold after a 50 basis-point cut (two-year Treasuries around 1.1%) and 10-year Treasuries in the 1.5-1.7% range. A 50/50 weighting of these scenarios implies a 1-1.25% range for 10-year Treasuries at year-end. With forwards currently around 1.1%, the market seems to be assigning a marginally higher probability to the bullish rates scenario (bearish risky assets) for end-2020.” (bloom.bg) “There is also reason to worry about international debt. According to the Bank for International Settlements, some $17 trillion is owed by non-U.S. corporations without what CrossBorder Capital describes as “obvious U.S. dollar access.” It is hard to see how this will be refinanced without resort to further quantitative easing, just as some of the worst pain for individuals and small businesses to emerge from the virus may require helicopter money drops. None of this makes a credit crisis inevitable, and it should certainly be possible to avoid a crisis on the scale of 2008. The scale of the fear should increase the scale of the subsequent recovery if credit issues can be eased. But the fear that the coronavirus will be the trigger to spark the next generalized credit crunch is widespread, and is rational.” (bloom.bg) Vehicle sales are down 80% in China. (bit.ly) “High yield and investment grade CDX spreads are at their highest levels in over a year, and have widened materially this week. In the case of the junk, an optimist's explanation might be “well, that’s down to energy – an increasingly small part of the S&P 500, so it shouldn't ring alarm bells.” High-yield CDX had its biggest daily widening since 2015 on Thursday. But it’s fairly rare for the S&P 500 to be up 0.8% or more in a week with investment-grade CDX at least five basis points wider. The last time that happened was in September 2018. In other words, the top of the 2018 markets before that year's fourth-quarter rout in risk assets.” (bloom.bg) Outflows Surged: “Fixed income funds have suffered their worst outflow ever, while equity funds have also suffered sizable outflows,” according to BoA Research (bit.ly). "The healthy reserves of many states and cities are why we think municipalities are well positioned to weather some economic dislocation,” according to Cumberland Advisors (bit.ly). An energy price slump may hurt: “While many drillers in Texas and other shale regions look vulnerable, as they’re overly indebted and already battered by rock-bottom natural gas prices, significant declines in U.S. production may take time. The largest American oil companies, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., now control many shale wells and have the balance sheets to withstand lower prices. Some smaller drillers may go out of business, but many will have bought financial hedges against the drop in crude.In the short run, Russia is in a good position to withstand an oil price slump. The budget breaks even at a price of $42 a barrel and the finance ministry has squirreled away billions in a rainy-day fund. Nonetheless, the coronavirus’s impact on the global economy is still unclear and with millions more barrels poised to flood the market, Wall Street analysts are warning oil could test recent lows of $26 a barrel.” (yhoo.it) Oil drops more than 30% Sunday due to OPEC failure and Saudi Arabia price cuts. (bloom.bg) “Hammered by a collapse in demand due to the coronavirus, the oil market sank deeper into chaos on the prospect of a supply free-for-all. Saudi Arabia over the weekend slashed its official prices by the most in at least 20 years and signaled to buyers it would ramp up output -- an unambiguous declaration of intent to flood the market with crude. Russia said its companies were free to pump as much as they could ... Aramco’s unprecedented pricing move came just hours after the talks between Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ended in dramatic failure. The breakup of the alliance effectively ends the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has underpinned oil prices since 2016.” Information I'm Carrying Forward: Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (reut.rs) "Asia’s economies, especially China, have grown much faster than their western counterparts, pulling the centre of gravity steadily deeper into the eastern hemisphere and Eurasia.” "In 2020, coronavirus has reinforced the point that an economic shock originating in China can and will propagate throughout the international economic system, impacting on businesses and financial markets worldwide."(reut.rs) "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (bit.ly) "Still, consumer fundamentals remain healthy. Personal income jumped 0.6% in January, the most since February 2019, after gaining 0.1% in December" (reut.rs) "So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (bit.ly) "The shrinking goods trade deficit could somewhat limit the downside to GDP growth. A third report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the goods trade deficit contracted 4.6% to $65.5 billion in January. Goods imports tumbled 2.2% last month and exports dropped 1.0%" (reut.rs) "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (bloom.bg) "While the coronavirus is disrupting supply chains for manufacturing, some sections of the industry do not appear to be experiencing significant distress. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose 6.1 points in February to a reading of 49.0, the highest level since August 2019, a fourth report showed. The joint MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago survey suggested a marginal impact on businesses in Chicago area from both the coronavirus and last month’s signing of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China" (reut.rs) Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
1
Fertilizer Stocks look ready to bottom and Nutrien best pick.The promise of better weather this growing season (Farmer's Almanac) than terrible 2019, Locusts in Africa destroying crops and possible higher demand in China for agricultural products should improve sales for nutrients. Canada has the 2nd largest reserves of Potash in the world, and is the leader in terms of global production. One advantage for the price of potassium chloride is the fact that more than one producer has curtailed production of late. Low natural gas prices an advantage for Nutrien in Canada when it comes to Nitrogen fertilizer. They also have large retail network worldwide. At a P/E of 16X trailing earnings, a 4% dividend yield and substantial free cash flow, the stock seems good value here.
NYSE:NTRLong
by malvinspooner
1
Bitcoin Halving ComparisonDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods In my previous post I called for Bitcoin to retest $16,000 before the halving. From there I expected to see a multi month correction back to $11,500 where support would be waiting from a horizontal and trendline. After further analysis I think that is a very good roadmap for the months to come. In the charts above I compare the current price action with what we saw in the second half of 2016, which was the last time that Bitcoin halved. We are currently three months from the expected halving date and last time around BTC pumped 80% in the 6 weeks before the rewards decreased. It started to correct two weeks before the halving occurred and proceed to fall 40%. If history repeats itself then that would indicate price rallying to $18,000 by the end of April before correcting back down to $10,800 in the following months. I put together a fractal to illustrate that potential path and used a parabola to connect to the lows instead of a trendline. Regardless of what happens these next few months should be very interesting indeed!
BNC:BLXLong
by Sawcruhteez
5
CVS - weekly chart cycle analysisToday I am going to review the chart for CVS health Corporation on a weekly timeframe. CVS seems to be following in 18 to 19 week cycle and we saw the latest cycle low being formed with the candle reflecting 27 Jan 2020. On 12th Feb 2020, CVS reported earnings that broadly beat the street’s estimates. CVS reported adjusted EPS of $1.73, which beat estimates of $1.68. The company reported revenue of $66.9B, which also beat estimates of $63.97B. The company forecasted annual EPS from $7.04 – $7.17 in 2020, which was in-line with analyst expectations of $7.15 Lets look at what the charts are suggesting. CVS has started the upward move as suggested with the beginning of the cycle over the last couple of weeks after bottoming out around $ 67.81 levels. CVS is in a very bullish intermediate-term cycle pattern with negative momentum. Given these conditions, we would expect short-term sell-offs to be limited to the intermediate Fibonacci support zone beginning at 70.58. There is a likelihood the stock tests 79 by May 2020 Price is inching upwards towards 75-76 levels, which is the first zone of resistance. This level is important resisitance as this reflects previous cycle high (failed upward move) witnessed during Nov 2019 to Mid Jan 2020. Also, this level shows confluence with Fib levels.... 0.786 levels and hence may act as short term resistance . Once this is cleared, next resistance at 81 to 82.5 levels. As indicated in the chart, this is also cycle high and the previous peak levels , where prices failed to hold on and got into a major declining phase. These levels were last witnessed in Nov and Dec 2018. Price should find support around 69 to 71 levels in the short term. For the bears to regain control and for us to revisit our belief, we will require a daily price close below 66.73 If you like what you see, then please share your comments in the box below and share a thumbs up!
NYSE:CVSLong
by LoveForCharts
1
BUY WAVES - great opportunity with great RRROn the chart you can see cyclic analysis of this coin. Current time calculation between 19-25.1.2020 should give the power into this chart and start new bullrun cycle. You can follow this set-up: 1. market entry at current price 2. set limit order into the zone between 1013 and 1025 sats. 3. set stoploss for both positions at 980 sats. 4. set take profits into the resistance zones which are visible on the chart as a blue zones RRR of this trade if we calculate only first target is 1. 1:2 within market entry at current price 2. 1:4.5 within limit entry at levels around 1020 sats. Good luck to everyone!
W
by HarmonicParadise
Miner Capitulation Recovery? Buy signal on Hash RibbonsMiner Capitulation / Hash Ribbons has signaled a buy on daily suggesting that hash rate is stabilizing. Hash ribbons flipped a few days ago and today the SMA 10 crossed over the SMA 20 which is the secondary condition for a long. Looking at a long term scope, this strategy was supposed to beat even an early buy & hold. Mostly by reducing drawdowns significantly. So I made a quick backtest to see if the number actually held up and they do. $100 invested in MC versus a buy & hold. It significantly outperformed! Realize this is not a quick in and out strategy, as you can see average trade is held for a few months. It does accomplish the goal of reducing drawdowns though (but not eliminating them). Now all we need is a time machine to play this from 2011 onwards. :) Have a kick ass & prosperous 2020 everyone!
BNC:BLXLong
by theheirophant
5
Bitcoin Still Bullish, But What Can Go Wrong?This is a bearish chart, but let me clarify that I"m still bullish, still long at $7800 and still looking for bull market to re-ignite. But is important as a trader to understand what can go wrong and adapt. What if this rally and cycle fails, what happens if mid December is the yearly cycle low? The simple answer is that we would have some very bearish market structure and be well below major MA's. The consolidation would be too long and chances of going into a long term bear market would be much higher. I would no longer be looking to enter a long swing trade. I would shift to more short term trading and eventually look to swing trade major resistance short.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by rzmb44
1
Looking for a Swing Trade Long in BitcoinBitcoin is a monthly and weekly bull market and currently in a daily bear move which I would categorize as a consolidation. In my early posts I was concerned that we could have topped and opened up a parabolic crash. While that is still possible, I don't find it as likely since this move has taken so long. Had we broke down last month, I would be more cautious. So I look to buy major dips in a bull market. As a cycle trader, I'm trying to buy during daily cycle lows. Since bitcoin tends to form cycle lows every 55-60 days I'm looking to buy a reversal between day 45 and 65. The timing band is that yellow area so this is statistically more likely to reverse in the next 15 days. Its not guaranteed and cycles aren't 100%, but we have an advantage when we buy in timing bands. There 3 areas I'm looking to buy. 1. $9k-$9500 - This is my least favorite as this will be harder to buy. However, its hard to ignore bitcoin in 2019 as it has a habit of forming a range low support that holds. Just like $7400 in June held. So if we form a rounded bottom here over the next week and start to reverse up, and back over $10100 then I'm going to start to build a long. Unfortunately, it would be a move where I'd have to just slowly add as we break new levels and hold support, but with almost everyone expecting a break down, it would be a very bitcoiny thing to see us just hold here. 2. $8500 area - This area has a lot of confluence. There is a CME gap, a monthly open and a 200 DMA all in the same area. It seems obvious and I think almost every trader will be a buyer there. That makes me think it might get over run.. but in the past when I've ignored the obvious just to be a contrarian I've missed super obvious moves. With enough confluence you get everyone buying and support holds and up you go. The only other problem I have with this area is that when the major daily support at $9k breaks down you would expect momentum to take it down much further. So if we do go down to $8500 I would like to see a quick move down that is bought up instantly and doesn't spend much time down there. 3. $7000 area- This is my favorite area. Especially if we get a really aggressive move. There is some support and that last major low. There is a huge gap where we have no volume from $6500-$7200. This will be an area ripe with stops. I think it will also be very hard to buy and you may have to just wait for the reversal, but a huge wick down there like we had in May or early July would be glorious.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by rzmb44
10
This Could Be The Easiest Buy Signal Of 2019Since March of 2017 we have only seen 3 bullish crosses on the MACD for XRP/BTC 1W chart. I have circled those crosses. We are very close to a fourth bullish cross which means it is almost time to buy XRP. As you can see, the distance between the crosses is becoming longer and the returns seen after the crosses are becoming less. BUT, that doesn't mean that we aren't going to see some fireworks. With that said, I feel like the reason we didn't see huge returns last cross was because of the lack of interest in the market at the time. Price is reaching a zone that has strong buy support. People who have discounted XRP in the past are now thinking about whether they should jump in because of a potential pump that is bound to happen. I have outlined my 3 price targets conservative target:5550 sats, moderate target:10040 sats and extreme target: 17031 sats. This price in this support zone is almost too good to pass up and I believe this could be one of the easiest profits of 2019.
Long
by ParCrypto
24
Is the Parabola Broke or Correction to Buy Bitcoin?Its the question everyone should ask and coming weeks will help us answer. This is my current cycle count in a 55 day cycle average, but since this has been so vertical, I'm still a bit uncertain if its accurate. This correction will help us get more clarity. We have a parabolic move, a big drop, a recovery to the 79% OTE, then lose all those gains in a few days. We have massive volatility so we are in a dangerous territory. In my last post I talked about the dangers of a break in the parabola and certainly price action is telling us to be careful. But I'm not certain that its broken. It can just be expanding before the next move up. When markets get like this I get cautious. So I really wasn't doing much of anything since last time we hit $10k other than small day trades. I'm still net short since my last post. With such a big move up and down in the past week or so, it would be rare to see the $9600 previous low hold. Bullish Plan: If we do break lower then I want to see volatility calm down and I'd like to see some sideways chop in the $8500-$9000 area. If we get there this week I'll cover short and look to build a long. But will only be to sell a bounce for now. I'll look for another move down and re-evaluate price action when we near a potential cycle low. Bearish Plan: I don't want to see continued acceleration. Moving down too fast causes a lot of psychological damage and fear. I'm already concerned about the volatility. If we show no signs of support near $9k then I'm just going to hold. I guarantee the volatility has led to a lot of losses. Its a sign of too much leverage. Bears now have control and its a sign that traders control the market not investors. This isn't going to help us get buyers. Red line: I really prefer not to see the red line broken in coming weeks. That would be a bit too much. There's some support down here so a wick wouldn't bother me. daily closes under this point would be a big concern.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by rzmb44