Cycleanalysis
Bitcoin Halving ComparisonDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Sawcruhteez Strategies: How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods
In my previous post I called for Bitcoin to retest $16,000 before the halving. From there I expected to see a multi month correction back to $11,500 where support would be waiting from a horizontal and trendline. After further analysis I think that is a very good roadmap for the months to come.
In the charts above I compare the current price action with what we saw in the second half of 2016, which was the last time that Bitcoin halved. We are currently three months from the expected halving date and last time around BTC pumped 80% in the 6 weeks before the rewards decreased. It started to correct two weeks before the halving occurred and proceed to fall 40%. If history repeats itself then that would indicate price rallying to $18,000 by the end of April before correcting back down to $10,800 in the following months.
I put together a fractal to illustrate that potential path and used a parabola to connect to the lows instead of a trendline. Regardless of what happens these next few months should be very interesting indeed!
CVS - weekly chart cycle analysisToday I am going to review the chart for CVS health Corporation on a weekly timeframe. CVS seems to be following in 18 to 19 week cycle and we saw the latest cycle low being formed with the candle reflecting 27 Jan 2020.
On 12th Feb 2020, CVS reported earnings that broadly beat the street’s estimates. CVS reported adjusted EPS of $1.73, which beat estimates of $1.68. The company reported revenue of $66.9B, which also beat estimates of $63.97B. The company forecasted annual EPS from $7.04 – $7.17 in 2020, which was in-line with analyst expectations of $7.15
Lets look at what the charts are suggesting.
CVS has started the upward move as suggested with the beginning of the cycle over the last couple of weeks after bottoming out around $ 67.81 levels.
CVS is in a very bullish intermediate-term cycle pattern with negative momentum. Given these conditions, we would expect short-term sell-offs to be limited to the intermediate Fibonacci support zone beginning at 70.58. There is a likelihood the stock tests 79 by May 2020
Price is inching upwards towards 75-76 levels, which is the first zone of resistance. This level is important resisitance as this reflects previous cycle high (failed upward move) witnessed during Nov 2019 to Mid Jan 2020. Also, this level shows confluence with Fib levels.... 0.786 levels and hence may act as short term resistance . Once this is cleared, next resistance at 81 to 82.5 levels. As indicated in the chart, this is also cycle high and the previous peak levels , where prices failed to hold on and got into a major declining phase. These levels were last witnessed in Nov and Dec 2018.
Price should find support around 69 to 71 levels in the short term.
For the bears to regain control and for us to revisit our belief, we will require a daily price close below 66.73
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BUY WAVES - great opportunity with great RRROn the chart you can see cyclic analysis of this coin. Current time calculation between 19-25.1.2020 should give the power into this chart and start new bullrun cycle.
You can follow this set-up:
1. market entry at current price
2. set limit order into the zone between 1013 and 1025 sats.
3. set stoploss for both positions at 980 sats.
4. set take profits into the resistance zones which are visible on the chart as a blue zones
RRR of this trade if we calculate only first target is
1. 1:2 within market entry at current price
2. 1:4.5 within limit entry at levels around 1020 sats.
Good luck to everyone!
Miner Capitulation Recovery? Buy signal on Hash RibbonsMiner Capitulation / Hash Ribbons has signaled a buy on daily suggesting that hash rate is stabilizing. Hash ribbons flipped a few days ago and today the SMA 10 crossed over the SMA 20 which is the secondary condition for a long.
Looking at a long term scope, this strategy was supposed to beat even an early buy & hold. Mostly by reducing drawdowns significantly. So I made a quick backtest to see if the number actually held up and they do. $100 invested in MC versus a buy & hold. It significantly outperformed!
Realize this is not a quick in and out strategy, as you can see average trade is held for a few months. It does accomplish the goal of reducing drawdowns though (but not eliminating them). Now all we need is a time machine to play this from 2011 onwards. :)
Have a kick ass & prosperous 2020 everyone!
Ethereum - Strange December cycles (Buy Eth you noobs).A strange case for buying Ethereum in the second week of December.
Bitcoin Still Bullish, But What Can Go Wrong?This is a bearish chart, but let me clarify that I"m still bullish, still long at $7800 and still looking for bull market to re-ignite. But is important as a trader to understand what can go wrong and adapt. What if this rally and cycle fails, what happens if mid December is the yearly cycle low?
The simple answer is that we would have some very bearish market structure and be well below major MA's. The consolidation would be too long and chances of going into a long term bear market would be much higher. I would no longer be looking to enter a long swing trade. I would shift to more short term trading and eventually look to swing trade major resistance short.
BTC/BITCOIN - LOOP Just a rough guess at which stage we could be right now.
Btw, monthly momentum almost in positive side.
Looking for a Swing Trade Long in BitcoinBitcoin is a monthly and weekly bull market and currently in a daily bear move which I would categorize as a consolidation. In my early posts I was concerned that we could have topped and opened up a parabolic crash. While that is still possible, I don't find it as likely since this move has taken so long. Had we broke down last month, I would be more cautious.
So I look to buy major dips in a bull market. As a cycle trader, I'm trying to buy during daily cycle lows. Since bitcoin tends to form cycle lows every 55-60 days I'm looking to buy a reversal between day 45 and 65. The timing band is that yellow area so this is statistically more likely to reverse in the next 15 days. Its not guaranteed and cycles aren't 100%, but we have an advantage when we buy in timing bands.
There 3 areas I'm looking to buy.
1. $9k-$9500 - This is my least favorite as this will be harder to buy. However, its hard to ignore bitcoin in 2019 as it has a habit of forming a range low support that holds. Just like $7400 in June held. So if we form a rounded bottom here over the next week and start to reverse up, and back over $10100 then I'm going to start to build a long. Unfortunately, it would be a move where I'd have to just slowly add as we break new levels and hold support, but with almost everyone expecting a break down, it would be a very bitcoiny thing to see us just hold here.
2. $8500 area - This area has a lot of confluence. There is a CME gap, a monthly open and a 200 DMA all in the same area. It seems obvious and I think almost every trader will be a buyer there. That makes me think it might get over run.. but in the past when I've ignored the obvious just to be a contrarian I've missed super obvious moves. With enough confluence you get everyone buying and support holds and up you go. The only other problem I have with this area is that when the major daily support at $9k breaks down you would expect momentum to take it down much further. So if we do go down to $8500 I would like to see a quick move down that is bought up instantly and doesn't spend much time down there.
3. $7000 area- This is my favorite area. Especially if we get a really aggressive move. There is some support and that last major low. There is a huge gap where we have no volume from $6500-$7200. This will be an area ripe with stops. I think it will also be very hard to buy and you may have to just wait for the reversal, but a huge wick down there like we had in May or early July would be glorious.
This Could Be The Easiest Buy Signal Of 2019Since March of 2017 we have only seen 3 bullish crosses on the MACD for XRP/BTC 1W chart. I have circled those crosses. We are very close to a fourth bullish cross which means it is almost time to buy XRP. As you can see, the distance between the crosses is becoming longer and the returns seen after the crosses are becoming less. BUT, that doesn't mean that we aren't going to see some fireworks. With that said, I feel like the reason we didn't see huge returns last cross was because of the lack of interest in the market at the time. Price is reaching a zone that has strong buy support. People who have discounted XRP in the past are now thinking about whether they should jump in because of a potential pump that is bound to happen. I have outlined my 3 price targets conservative target:5550 sats, moderate target:10040 sats and extreme target: 17031 sats. This price in this support zone is almost too good to pass up and I believe this could be one of the easiest profits of 2019.
Is the Parabola Broke or Correction to Buy Bitcoin?Its the question everyone should ask and coming weeks will help us answer. This is my current cycle count in a 55 day cycle average, but since this has been so vertical, I'm still a bit uncertain if its accurate. This correction will help us get more clarity.
We have a parabolic move, a big drop, a recovery to the 79% OTE, then lose all those gains in a few days. We have massive volatility so we are in a dangerous territory. In my last post I talked about the dangers of a break in the parabola and certainly price action is telling us to be careful. But I'm not certain that its broken. It can just be expanding before the next move up.
When markets get like this I get cautious. So I really wasn't doing much of anything since last time we hit $10k other than small day trades. I'm still net short since my last post.
With such a big move up and down in the past week or so, it would be rare to see the $9600 previous low hold.
Bullish Plan: If we do break lower then I want to see volatility calm down and I'd like to see some sideways chop in the $8500-$9000 area. If we get there this week I'll cover short and look to build a long. But will only be to sell a bounce for now. I'll look for another move down and re-evaluate price action when we near a potential cycle low.
Bearish Plan: I don't want to see continued acceleration. Moving down too fast causes a lot of psychological damage and fear. I'm already concerned about the volatility. If we show no signs of support near $9k then I'm just going to hold. I guarantee the volatility has led to a lot of losses. Its a sign of too much leverage. Bears now have control and its a sign that traders control the market not investors. This isn't going to help us get buyers.
Red line: I really prefer not to see the red line broken in coming weeks. That would be a bit too much. There's some support down here so a wick wouldn't bother me. daily closes under this point would be a big concern.
Cycles: From the book by Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin, Pt2A more detailed look at our current market situation and where we may be heading.
Cycles: From the book by Edward R. Dewey and Edwin F. Dakin,1947I am in the middle of reading this book and decided to put it all together on a chart to visualize every cycle at the same time and share it with you.
I see now why the 1929 crash was so devastating, all waves were pointing downward.
BTC LONGWE WILL SEE A SMALL DIP IN A WEEK AND THEN A MOVE TO THE UPSIDE (MOVING AVERAGES ARE NOW INTERSECTING)
