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NVDA - Still Bullish, But Major Potential Sell Signal LoomingThis week in NVDA I am paying attention to the following: -On the monthly timeframe, we see that there is a significant bearish divergence setup forming. This has not yet triggered, though, so the bulls can relax (for now). However, in 7 days when the Monthly candle closes, we need to pay close attention to the CCI divergence. If it confirms, it implies a MAJOR bearish correction for NVDA is on the horizon. -But in the meantime, everything is all systems go for the bulls. If you trade based on the Monthly, any pullbacks into the $88 region (Monthly MAC low) would be satisfactory spots to look for Buy triggers on the Daily timeframe. The Williams Acc/Dis is positioned well above its 57 period MA, which means we should look to buy any pullbacks into the low of the MAC. -Weekly analysis also implies all is good for the bulls. I will look for Buy triggers on the 6H chart if price pulls back into the $107 region (Weekly MAC low). -For fun, I throw some cyclical analysis into the mix. We see that NVDA has a strong seasonal cycle for an upmove from early October into November. Thank you for reading. Enjoy your week.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Tradius_Trades
10
Cycle Analysis - Dollar IndexI am SETUP to hunt long TRIGGERS in the DX this week based on the COT strategy. So I thought I'd look, do cycles support the COT strategy looking for Longs? It turns out, they do. Decennial & Annual Predictable Zones (APZ's) supportive of up move to Early/Mid October Intermarket analysis finds a striking 60.9% correlation to DX's current price action to that of the price action found in 1991. Based on the intermarket analysis, we expect a major cyclical low sometime around now. The long term blend of the 51.5 month & 581 day cycles show a major cyclical low should be around the corner for DX. The short term blend of the 20.6, 29.9 & 115.6 day cycle is supportive of longs until a short term cyclical high early-mid October.
ICEUS:DXZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders' Selling Stagnates: A signal to WatchLong-term Bitcoin holders currently control approximately 12.6 million CRYPTOCAP:BTC , and historical patterns make this group a key indicator of Bitcoin's market cycle phases. As Bitcoin approached its new all-time high earlier this year, there was a sharp decline in the holdings of long-term holders. However, this decline has recently stabilized, suggesting a potential turning point. While this could be a temporary pause, it's valuable to compare this pattern with similar historical periods. The marked periods in 2019 and 2013 show a similar trend , where a multi-month drawdown followed a rally. In both cases, despite the downturns, Bitcoin eventually went on to establish new highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by IntoTheBlock
CYCLICAL ANALYSIS - Crude Oil to Go Up To Mid OctoberDISCLAIMER: This is not trading advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to show how I view this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence. My COT strategy has Crude Oil SETUP for longs if we get a TRIGGER (Confirmed bullish trend change). But what do cycles have to say about this long trade idea? Cycles suggest that we should see an up move in Crude Oil until Mid October/Early November. I look at many interesting things: -Using the DOW Arab Titans 50 index as a leading indicator of where Crude Oil may trade to. -The annual cycle of oil is strong and should not be ignored. It too is supportive of taking a long until mid October. -The Decennial cycle is supportive of a bounce in oil into mid October. -Major economic cycles & temporary trading cycles are also indicating an upmove could be imminent for oil. -Lastly, we see that the previous most similar year of price action (2019) suggests oil could move higher into October/November. TO BE CLEAR: This does not mean I am going long blindly, I wait for entry TRIGGER (18 MA, 10h8c MAC, Divergence). This market did already trigger via divergence last Wednesday via the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) divergence confirmation. If you have any questions about my cyclical analysis, feel free to shoot me a message. I hope you had a good start to your week. And as always... Good Luck & Good Trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Bitcoin Cycles: Predicted Highs and Lows for 2025-2026 In this post, we will explore the Bitcoin market cycle in an effort to predict when the next cycle's top and bottom might occur, along with their potential price levels. Our analysis will cover several key concepts, including the Four-Year Cycle Theory, peak-to-peak and bottom-to-bottom analysis, cycle timing (peak-to-bottom), and the idea of diminishing returns, to support our forecast. Lets go! The Four-Year Cycle Theory: The Four-Year Cycle Theory in Bitcoin refers to a recurring market cycle that aligns with the Bitcoin halving event, which occurs approximately every four years. It suggests that Bitcoin's price moves in predictable cycles, driven largely by the dynamics of supply and demand, with the halving event acting as a significant catalyst. The theory suggests that each four-year cycle consists of four distinct phases: a. Accumulation (Bear Market Bottom) b. Uptrend (Bull Market Start) c. Parabolic Rise (Bull Market Peak) d. Correction (Bear Market Crash) The halving significantly reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin is mined, which leads to a supply reduction. As supply decreases while demand stays the same or increases (due to growing adoption, media attention, etc.), the price often rises after the halving leading to phase c. the Parabolic Rise. With the basics of the Four-Year Cycle Theory covered, we can now analyze the intervals between cycle peaks and bottoms. Cycle interval analysis: A cycle analysis aims to identify recurring patterns by analyzing the time and price movements between key events, such as market tops (peaks) and bottoms, in the case of Bitcoin the halving event may also be considered. By examining these cyclical behaviors it is attempted to predict future tops and bottoms. The simplest and easiest-to-understand patterns are: 1. Top-to-Top The time difference between consecutive market tops 2. Top-to-Bottom The time difference between a market top to the next market bottom. 3. Bottom-to-Top The time difference between a market bottom to the next market top. 4. Bottom-to-Bottom The time difference between consecutive market bottoms. There are however also more advanced patterns such as: 5. All-Time-High Break to Top The time difference between a break of the last cycle top to the next market top. 6. Halving event to top The time difference between the halving event to the next market top. It can be observed that market cycle patterns in the 2nd cycle are shorter compared to those in the 3rd and 4th cycles. This is likely due to a lack of market maturation or the fact that it occurs before the first halving. What stands out is the similarity between the 3rd and 4th cycle patterns. By averaging these cycles, we can predict the 5th cycle. Even more striking is that several of these predictions closely match the subsequent cycle top AND bottom. The predicted upcoming market cycle top is predicted as follows: Based on the Top-to-Top pattern, the market top is forecasted for November 3, 2025. According to the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the top is expected on October 13, 2025. The Halving Event-to-Top pattern suggests a market peak on October 6, 2025. Additionally, the ATH-Break-to-Top pattern indicates that the Parabolic Rise of the current cycle will begin on December 9, 2024. The predicted upcoming market cycle bottom is predicted as follows: Based on the Bottom-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 19th 2026. According to the Top-to-Bottom pattern, the market bottom is forecasted for October 26th 2026. Here is a graphical overview of our prediction timelines: Price prediction using diminishing Returns: In the context of Bitcoin and market cycles, diminishing returns refers to the phenomenon where, as Bitcoin’s market matures and more capital or resources are invested, the incremental gains or price increases from additional investments become smaller over time. In essence this means the following: Bull Market Peaks: As a market cycle reaches its peak, diminishing returns become evident. The price increases become smaller and less dramatic each cycle compared to earlier in the cycle. Bear Market Corrections: Following the peak, the market often enters a correction phase where prices decline significantly. The decline also becomes smaller and less dramatic compared to earlier cycles. In essence, this results in less dramatic bull cycles but also less severe declines during bear markets: Here is a table overview with the values: The effects of diminishing returns are clearly observable, with one exception: the Cycle Top to the next Cycle Bottom in Cycle 3, which saw a 6x loss. However, if we take the effects of diminishing returns into consideration, we can make the following conclusions: The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Top-to-Top multiplier of 3.4x, meaning it is unlikely to exceed a price of 224K. The next Cycle Top will likely not exceed the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Top multiplier of 20.5x, meaning it is even more unlikely to exceed a price of 333K. After considering the effects of diminishing returns, we believe a Top-to-Top multiplier in the range of 2 to 2.6 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle top price of $131,000 to $170,000. Regarding the next bear market Bottom: The next Cycle Bottom will likely be below the Cycle 4 Bot-to-Bot multiplier of 5.1x, meaning it will likely be below 83K. We believe a Bot-to-Bot multiplier in the range of 3 to 4 is realistic. Therefore, we predict a cycle bottom price of $49,000 to $65,000. Final Conclusion: Predicted Cycle Top: The upcoming market cycle top is forecasted to occur in October or November 2025. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $131,000 to $170,000. Predicted Cycle Bottom: The upcoming market cycle bottom is forecasted to occur in October or November 2026. Based on our analysis, we predict a price range of $49,000 to $65,000. These predictions incorporate the effects of diminishing returns and historical cycle patterns.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Cryptonerds
3
Nvidia - A Correction Of -50% Is Starting!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is reversing at a strong resistance: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Last month Nvidia already corrected about -35% but managed to close with an indecision doji candle. However, previous cycles, the recent rally of +1.000% and the fact that Nvidia is retesting a strong resistance trendline all suggest that Nvidia will still move much lower soon. Levels to watch: $100, $55 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
27
Bitcoin's Bull Run Is Closer Than You Think (Q4 Shock)Good Morning CryptoFam and Investing enthusiasts, As we find ourselves in another week of downward price action, I want to believe that this could be a massive fake-out as we patiently await the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts expected during the week of September 18th (source:(www.cmegroup.com). Looking at Bitcoin's historical patterns, particularly market seasonality—defined as predictable trends in asset prices driven by recurring events such as holidays, earnings seasons, tax deadlines, or consumer behavior—we can expect a positive trend reversal starting in October. Historically, Bitcoin has delivered an average Q4 return of almost 89%. From today’s prices, this would put us on a trajectory towards the $100K mark by year-end (source: www.coinglass.com). Additionally, when we examine the liquidation heat-maps, the liquidity below current prices has mostly been exhausted, meaning that downward pressure from market makers could begin to ease as fewer positions remain to be liquidated below this range. Now, the most tempting targets are the shorts—many of which began shorting around the $74K all-time high. It may be time for a short squeeze (source: Liquidation Heat-map (www.coinglass.com). Now for the exciting part: We've been trading in a parallel channel for about 175 days. This has been a test of patience, draining much of the motivation from market participants—especially as traditional markets have performed so well this year. However, our time is coming. I've been quietly stacking at these lower prices, with confidence in what's to come. Let's take a moment to analyze the technicals. On the weekly chart, we remain within the aforementioned channel, and the Bollinger Bands have become extremely tight—often a precursor to significant price movement. The price currently sits near the bottom of the BB%b indicator, signaling that Bitcoin may be oversold. Next, we turn to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which is currently sitting at 47 on the weekly chart. This essentially indicates a reset, giving us room for a potential upward move. However, it’s important to acknowledge that while it doesn’t limit a higher price move, it also doesn’t preclude further downside. Supporting my bullish thesis as we approach year-end is the "Sine Line" indicator. This tool, which aligns with time and cycle theory, suggests that we are nearing the bottom of bearish momentum, forecasting a return to upward price action in the coming weeks and months. Finally, let’s talk about projecting previous cycles into the future using the Bar Pattern tool in TradingView. To create this pattern, I mapped the price movements from September (post-halving) for the last three cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020), extending the trend from September to the top of each cycle. Interestingly, each cycle lasted approximately the same length of time and aligns well with the Sine Line tool. It points to an expected cycle top around December 2025. Just for fun, I plotted the potential price levels if Bitcoin were to follow similar run-ups from those cycles. While I don’t expect a 2012 or 2016-style price explosion in the next year, it's fascinating to note that all three cycles fit perfectly into the current price channel. This strengthens my conviction that we've already seen the market bottom and are poised to resume our bullish direction soon. As always, #frens, I appreciate you taking the time to read my thoughts and analysis. Remember, this is just my opinion. Please do your own research and take actions that are appropriate for your unique situation. That said—do take action. For more insights, please visit my webpage at linker.ee/pcalzolaio. I look forward to sharing this journey with you all. #FIRE #FREEDOM #BITCOIN Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Calzolaio
BITCOIN - Analyzing previous Bitcoin cycles combined with DataIf you look at the monthly chart of Bitcoin and examine the three previous cycles in crypto, you can see where we currently stand. This doesn’t guarantee that we’ll go up from here, but it does show that the chart often follows a similar pattern every cycle. Price movements are a universal phenomenon seen across all charts in various sectors, not just crypto. Often, you’ll notice an asset testing its all-time high (ATH) and then taking a “breath.” After that, the asset typically moves beyond its ATH and embarks on a bullish journey. The market tends to become more greedy once it surpasses the ATH because it means everyone in the market is in profit. Of course, it depends on what you bought, but the principle remains the same. I see a lot of people worried about where we’re headed next. Nothing is for certain, but stop reading the news and worrying about recessions. England and Germany are currently in recessions and have just broken their ATHs. Recessions have nothing to do with price action. Many are also concerned that the markets will crash once the rate cut season starts, which is highly likely to occur in September. However, historical data suggests otherwise. If you look back 70 years, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% return one year after the first rate cut. By using data and following cycles, like the one below and the 18.6-year real estate and economic cycle, it becomes much easier to handle the drawdowns and negativity you hear around you. Using Fibonacci retracement, I believe we could see a top for Bitcoin around $150-200K before the next bear market.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by WealthNode
Bitcoin - When will we see the breakout?BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is preparing its most bullish breakout of the entire trading history! After a couple years of trading experiences, you will simply stop paying attention to your emotions. Looking at the chart of Bitcoin objectively, you can see that everything is still incredibly bullish. Despite the hesitancy at the previous all time high, Bitcoin is also not rejecting it towards the downside. Eventually, we will just see a monstrous bullish breakout. Levels to watch: $70.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
6
Micron Technology - Patience and price action!NASDAQ:MU is literally creating so clear and repetitive market structure, this is textbook. Bullish break and retest, cycle and correction. Micron Technology has been repeating this price action for over a decade and is about to enter another correction phase. If you don't want to trade this anticipated correction, you can instead wait for another retest of previous resistance, bullish confirmation and a rejection. Following the cycles, a bullish move there is quite likely. Levels to watch: $140, $95 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
NASDAQ:MUShort
by basictradingtv
11
Why ALTSEASON 2.0 is HEREIf you've been following for a wile, you'll know I've been speaking of Elliot Wave theory and cycles - and how, from a macro perspective, we are currently in a multi-month correction before another impulse wave up. By looking at the TOTAL3 chart, as discussed in the video, it seems likely that this may only be the BEGINNING for altcoins... and you'll see why. Even though multi-month corrections can be demotivating, patience rewards the faithful! Check out yesterday's analysis on Altcoins that are strong right now despite the recent dip: _____________________________ CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by CryptoCheck-
4
Dogecoin - The pump is so clear!CRYPTO:DOGEUSD is looking so bullish, Cycles, breakouts, sentiment and market structure. Dogecoin is combining all four of these bullish aspects and is preparing for a major move higher. After Dogecoin finally broke out of the triangle a couple of months ago, we already saw a rally of +250%. This is simply the starting of the next major crypto bullrun which will pump the entire altcoin market, especially Dogecoin! Levels to watch: $0.117 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by basictradingtv
14
Bitcoin - Half way to the $200.000 target!BITSTAMP:BTCUSD is consecutively retesting the previous all time high and breaking out soon. You all know my life motto: Keep your long term vision. This is especially true when it comes to trading the major swings on Bitcoin. These very volatile short term moves will always give you a false perception of the underlying trend. And the underlying trend on Bitcoin is bullish, despite the recent back and forth at the previous all time high. I do expect a major bullish breakout soon. Levels to watch: $67.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
8
Ethereum - Is everything already over?CRYPTO:ETHUSD is struggling to break above the previous all time high and might correct soon. Please don't look at headlines and news regarding cryptocurrencies. Overall these messages are just preventing you from objectively looking at the chart. Ethereum is creating higher highs and higher lows, meaning that Ethereum is trading in an uptrend. Even if Ethereum is not able to break above the previous all time high, market structure still remains decently bullish. Levels to watch: $4.000, $2.200 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by basictradingtv
4
Tesla - Breakout leading to four digits!NASDAQ:TSLA is attempting to break out of the long term descending triangle consolidation. If you cannot wait patiently for your textbook setups, there is no chance you will make money trading. For almost four years, Tesla has been consolidating in a huge triangle formation. And it seems like Tesla is finally breaking out towards the upside. This breakout was actually not unexpected at all and provides a very high probability trading opportunity in the near future. Levels to watch: $250 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
3
Gold - Should we take profits now?OANDA:XAUUSD has been heading higher and creating a strong rally; time to take profits. Gold is still clearly bullish, creating higher highs and higher lows on the higher timeframes. But we also always have to keep in mind, that metals and commodities in general are always following anticipated economic cycles. It is actually quite likely, that after the recent rally of +30% we will now see a retracement on Gold, maybe even back to the previous breakout level. Levels to watch: $2.400, $2.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by basictradingtv
2
XrpUsd - Rally back to previous resistance (+100%)?BITSTAMP:XRPUSD is one of the most interesting cryptocurrencies for potential setups in the near future. For a couple of years now, XrpUsd has been trading in a symmetrical triangle trading pattern. Always when XrpUsd retested support in the past, we simply saw a very nice rejection away towards the upside. And as we are speaking, XrpUsd is once again retesting such a confluence of support from which we could see a rally towards the upside. Target is the previous resistance of the triangle pattern. Levels to watch: $0.491, $0.911 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by basictradingtv
5
The Duration of the Current Bitcoin Bull CycleHow Much Longer Will the Good Times Last? In this chart, I highlighted 3 different cyclic frameworks. The dynamic time cycle which is shown as "grey/blue zigzag" extended into the future. It is a 186 day cycle pattern which was observed at any past parabolic move since 2010 in Bitcoin. It needs 5 repetitions in order to complete a parabolic up move. Count 5 is to be expected to arrive summer next year. I also marked the "static" view for that cycle with blue circle arcs at the bottom. The red is the nominal (average) 200days cycle. I added the seasonality cycles for Bitcoin at the top of the chart, highlighted with colored areas. The simple seasonality is always a bullish yearly start into May/June, follows by a flat June and bearish July-September pattern. Then bullish from October into end of the year. The bitcoin halving cycle impact is also shown with the pinkish vertical lines. The last one happened April 2024. During the first 100days period after the halving, there is no impact to be expected. But analyzing past halving cycles, there has always been a big-up-excess around 400days after the halving. Interestingly, all these 3 cyclic pattern are in alignment for the period October 2024 into May 2025 with a common bullish outlook. So we might get a flat to challenging summer 2024. But afterwards the cycle seem to vote for a continuation of the current bull cycle. At the bottom, I added my preferred cyclic-tuned dynamic cyclic RSI indicator. Which I have made public for everyone. ("cRSI") I presented more details on this analysis in my personal blog.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by StockMarketCycles
3
Dogecoin - Last buy before +250% pump!CRYPTO:DOGEUSD broke out of another triangle formation and is preparing a major move. Cycle after cycle after cycle. Dogecoin is definitely one of these assets where you have to look at the higher timeframes; otherwise there is a high risk that you get caught up in short term moves. The trend is clearly bullish and five months ago Dogecoin broke out of a symmetrical triangle formation. We also have a valid break and retest, all indicating a bullish reversal. Levels to watch: $0.125, $0.359 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
CRYPTO:DOGEUSDLong
by basictradingtv
2