Cycleanalysis
This Cycle Take Profits! "Ladies and gentlemen, I'm excited to share with you that Bitcoin adoption is gaining momentum in institutional settings! Heavy hitters like Fidelity Investments, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs are actively exploring cryptocurrency offerings. And it's not just them - real-world banks like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are taking notice, filing patents for blockchain-related technologies. But that's not all - institutions like the Intercontinental Exchange and Nasdaq are building cryptocurrency trading platforms! Now, I know mainstream adoption is still in its early days, but these developments show a growing recognition of Bitcoin's potential in traditional finance. The future is looking bright, and I'm excited to see where this momentum takes us!"
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle ConceptHere we look at a quirky emoji infographic showcasing one of five potential Bitcoin cycle concepts. Using trend-based Fibonacci Time Extensions, I've drawn them since the inception of Bitcoin's first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2013 all-time high. These are then projected sequentially four times to 2025. While it seems simple, and not perfect, it appears to be quite effective and has not been invalidated to date.
Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why it's the first of five concepts (long & short Term) I'll explore and adapt alternatives in the coming weeks and months.
This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.
Key Takeaways:
With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset.
Each fib range marks 1456 days with 728 being the halfway point of each sequence. Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.
Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat.
We just passed the Halfway point in early Nov 2023.
This current cycle is projected to end in Nov 2025.
This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
Enjoy!
#bitcoin cycle analysisHave you noticed this c ycle analysis in #Bitcoin (#BTC), where price tends to create a major bottom on average every 105 days? If this #cycle_analysis is going to materialize again, then we could anticipate another #bullish move in about 15 days.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
📈 Elevate Your Portfolio with Synthetix (SNX) - Long Awaits!Hello, fellow traders and blockchain enthusiasts! Today, I'm diving deep into the undercurrents of the crypto sea to fish out a gem—Synthetix (SNX). But before we set sail, let’s anchor down on some recent trends and data analytics that signal a wave of potential profits! 🌊💸
Current Landscape and Analyst Insights on Synthetix (SNX)
Recently, Synthetix has been bustling with activity, especially with the launch of Synthetix V3 on the Base network. This upgrade introduces significant enhancements such as increased liquidity provider limits, up to $21.92 million USDC, and an enriched user experience with better incentives and transaction fee structures.
Here’s what you need to know:
Governance and Community Engagement: Synthetix is actively engaging its community for governance decisions. For example, to participate in the PYTH governance distribution, users need to actively participate through the Synthetix Discord by April 22nd. This shows Synthetix’s commitment to decentralized decision-making.
V3 Launch and Liquidity Impacts: The recent shift to Synthetix V3 on the Base network has successfully increased the liquidity cap and introduced a system where users can earn transaction fees and LP incentives by providing USDC collateral.
Diving Into Data: The Big Picture
Hold on to your hats, because the winds of change are blowing! Recent analyses using sophisticated big data tools have surfaced some compelling indicators:
Transaction Value Native: Recently hit a trough at $3,232.41. Historical data suggests that such lows are often followed by significant price surges. 📉➡️📈
On-Chain Metrics: Indicators are in a downturn. However, don't be misled—this is when the magic happens! Past patterns show a potential median price increase of a whopping 43.89% over the next month. Mark your calendars! 📅
Such a configuration of data previously marked 22 similar historical episodes with a staggering 87% of those signaling an upswing post-condition met.
Cyclical Surge: Timing is Everything
And guess what? SNX is just revving at the bottom of its composite price cycle. This isn't just a quick sprint but a marathon with the cycle projected to rise through July. Ready, set, go long! 🏁
Targets:
Entry Point (Long Position): Leverage the low transaction value native and on-chain metrics downturn as entry signals.
Target Prices (TP) and Stop Loss (SL):
TP: $4.0108 🎯
SL: $2.1757 🛑
Price Predictions for Upcoming Periods
Based on the current analysis and market cycles:
1 Week: $2.9748
2 Weeks: $3.2584
1 Month: $3.9659
3 Months: $8.6669
6 Months: $10.8558
To Conclude: Why Ride the Synthetix Wave?
High historical hit rate and accuracy
Consistent relationship between observed drivers and market movements
Attractive risk-reward balance with minimal drawdowns
So, why wait? Dive into the Synthetix tide and let the currents guide you to profitable shores. Let's catch this wave together—follow for more deep dives and treasure troves!
P.S. Don't forget to subscribe to this ideas flow right now😂
BTC BULL CYCLE PREDICTION This post is an idea I had about predicting this Bullrun cycle top using the previous cycles pattern.
The general rule of the pattern is:
- Bullcycle last 1065 days
- Bear cycle lasts 365 days
Knowing this we can predict that the end of the Bullrun will be... OCTOBER 2025. Meaning we have 670 days remaining.
Estimating the peak price of BTC is a bit more challenging, we know there are diminishing returns with every complete cycle, the first cycle had a % drop of:
Cycle 1-2 = 97.15%
Cycle 2-3 = 82.14%
By continuing the pattern of percentage drop of 15.01% per cycle, we get:
Cycle 3-4 = 67.13%
Using the previous Cycle % gain of 2,108.27% multiplied by our % drop off we get:
2,108.27*0.6713 =
1,315.24%
or
14.1524x
This then gives you % gain from start of the bull cycle. The bottom was $15,473.7 so...
$15,473.7*14.1524 = $218,989
~ $229,000/BTC CYCLE TOP
Obviously this is all theoretical, I wanted to have a prediction post to look back on after this cycle but also to have a plan to sell long term holdings when price nears this area.
Many aspects of the cryptocurrency world would have changed by October 2025. Mass adoption, ETF's, Regulation and so on will change the landscape of the market, this may be the last cycle of sizable gains before volatility leaves the space.
670 days left to make generational wealth.
BTC half way through the cycle likely heading for at least 140kI've posted a BTC chart here last cycle, showing the weekly and monthly RSI cheat-sheet of where to buy and sell, and I trust it served many well (see the related idea below)
The key to anticipating cycle targets ahead of time is the adoption curve, which is actually a straight line on a chart with log on both axes, but without log on the date axis (unsupported by TradingView sadly) one may plot points and retrofit curves into that as shown
So far Bitcoin's price action has been oriented around "lay-line" diagonals similar to Gold (see my recent XAU chart) but the main difference is that the sectors on BTCUSD are now beginning to fractionalise owe to diminishing adoption curve returns
At the bottom is my custom relative volume indicator which shows relative volume in a Bollinger Band sigma measurement fashion split down into a buy-to-sell ratio depending on the composition of the candle (this is the Bitstamp chart but a summation chart produces the exact same consistent capitulation flags)
At some point I may list my RSI candles and RVB histogram as premium indicators here on TradingView since their tried-and-tested benefits are not to be underestimated as can be seen very clearly here
The current blue bull cycle channel I called over a year ago before the support was even touched and I was able to do that because I recognised the angle of the resistance last Easter and extrapolated a projection from the last cycle (it's copy pasta of the same channel as last cycle basically)
It has not moved since
I was also able to call the 70k local top a month ago because I'm well aware that for whatever reason the numbers 7 & 14 are significant on the Bitcoin chart and that's why I also expect that this cycle will likely black swan past 140k briefly up to about 200k similar to how it shot to 20k past 14k seven years ago
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #2)In this chart, we take a look at a second Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (2/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 linked below. This Concept #2 is an alternative 8-step cycle phase to my original concept. This zooms out further and takes Bitcoin from a greater 2-phase cycle perspective. This concept is for the long-term investor who aims to track major Bitcoin phases when time is not on their side. Treat each signpost phase as a ranged period mindset until the next is triggered. This is not to be conflicted with the original concept, however, another perspective.
In this second concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2017 all-time high. From there it is projected sequentially again to 2026. The reasons for placement are through an observational nature in the structure of the cycles, or at least how I see it. From 2009 > 2011 > 2013 > 2017 as being marked one cycle, to 2017 > to now as a potential being marked as the second cycle. A repeat of this cycle however is on a larger scale. The ATHs to cycle lows across these two cycles are also noted as 2011's low from ATH was -93% whereas 2013 was 86%. Thus in 2017, it was -84% and to date 2022 is -76%. It appears that it is 1 larger drop proceeding by a lesser % drop.
Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the noted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up relates to the major pivots across the start and end of the sequence.
Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months.
This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.
Key Takeaways:
With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset.
Each fib range marks approximately 2900 days (8yrs)
Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.
Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat.
We are 8 weeks, 3 days until we hit the next phase (Climb the Wall of Worry)
This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Dec 2025.
This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
PENDLE BREAK TO UP $5 HIGH POSSIBLITYPENDLE showing on cycle trend important data for the high possibility to increase to up $5 in the coming time frames.
we will follow this to see if it can get confirmed.
The last data of this coin shows a high interest in the break trend.
Next time frames could be very important for the trend.
$USOIL pushing higher in a weekly cycleTVC:USOIL Cycle overview
Daily - we are currently entering timing window to print Daily Cycle 2 coming out of ICL in December. I'm expecting a push higher to break above the declining trendline as we push higher to ICH
Weekly - On week 15 looking to push higher to HCH expected around week 18-20
Monthly - In a new yearly cycle, expecting HCH around June-July 2024
ILMN Bullish ComebackOn the 12 month timeframe, or yearly supercycle, ILMN seems to be consolidating enough these first 3 months into 2024 to ultimately flip to the upside with maximum bull force. The company has a solid catalyst with AI facilitating the end goal of a super biopharma product that perhaps all humanity may have to rely on: a panacea. This panacea may come in the form of a machine that prompts the users exactly what symptoms they have, and produce a medicine that cures said symptoms. Something very well regulated and sophisticated enough to fuel the bull run of the decade for ILMN. A merger should be the cherry on top, and maybe the BNGO merger prophecy comes to fruition, but this only time will tell.
$AMD Cycle outlook into Sep-Oct 2024NASDAQ:AMD cycles
Daily - looks to have started decline to HCL which is putting NYSE:ADM at a risk of daily cycle failure.
Weekly - printed weekly swing low on the tail end of the weekly cycle. Looking for the decline into ICL around mid May
Monthly - Bigger picture, just coming out of 7 year cycle low. We typically dip into HCL decline into month 23-25 so a final decline to YCL should be around Sep-Oct 2024