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Cycleanalysis

A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle ConceptHere we look at a quirky emoji infographic showcasing one of five potential Bitcoin cycle concepts. Using trend-based Fibonacci Time Extensions, I've drawn them since the inception of Bitcoin's first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2013 all-time high. These are then projected sequentially four times to 2025. While it seems simple, and not perfect, it appears to be quite effective and has not been invalidated to date. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why it's the first of five concepts (long & short Term) I'll explore and adapt alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset. Each fib range marks 1456 days with 728 being the halfway point of each sequence. Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat. We just passed the Halfway point in early Nov 2023. This current cycle is projected to end in Nov 2025. This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here: Enjoy!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
📈 Elevate Your Portfolio with Synthetix (SNX) - Long Awaits!Hello, fellow traders and blockchain enthusiasts! Today, I'm diving deep into the undercurrents of the crypto sea to fish out a gem—Synthetix (SNX). But before we set sail, let’s anchor down on some recent trends and data analytics that signal a wave of potential profits! 🌊💸 Current Landscape and Analyst Insights on Synthetix (SNX) Recently, Synthetix has been bustling with activity, especially with the launch of Synthetix V3 on the Base network. This upgrade introduces significant enhancements such as increased liquidity provider limits, up to $21.92 million USDC, and an enriched user experience with better incentives and transaction fee structures. Here’s what you need to know: Governance and Community Engagement: Synthetix is actively engaging its community for governance decisions. For example, to participate in the PYTH governance distribution, users need to actively participate through the Synthetix Discord by April 22nd. This shows Synthetix’s commitment to decentralized decision-making. V3 Launch and Liquidity Impacts: The recent shift to Synthetix V3 on the Base network has successfully increased the liquidity cap and introduced a system where users can earn transaction fees and LP incentives by providing USDC collateral. Diving Into Data: The Big Picture Hold on to your hats, because the winds of change are blowing! Recent analyses using sophisticated big data tools have surfaced some compelling indicators: Transaction Value Native: Recently hit a trough at $3,232.41. Historical data suggests that such lows are often followed by significant price surges. 📉➡️📈 On-Chain Metrics: Indicators are in a downturn. However, don't be misled—this is when the magic happens! Past patterns show a potential median price increase of a whopping 43.89% over the next month. Mark your calendars! 📅 Such a configuration of data previously marked 22 similar historical episodes with a staggering 87% of those signaling an upswing post-condition met. Cyclical Surge: Timing is Everything And guess what? SNX is just revving at the bottom of its composite price cycle. This isn't just a quick sprint but a marathon with the cycle projected to rise through July. Ready, set, go long! 🏁 Targets: Entry Point (Long Position): Leverage the low transaction value native and on-chain metrics downturn as entry signals. Target Prices (TP) and Stop Loss (SL): TP: $4.0108 🎯 SL: $2.1757 🛑 Price Predictions for Upcoming Periods Based on the current analysis and market cycles: 1 Week: $2.9748 2 Weeks: $3.2584 1 Month: $3.9659 3 Months: $8.6669 6 Months: $10.8558 To Conclude: Why Ride the Synthetix Wave? High historical hit rate and accuracy Consistent relationship between observed drivers and market movements Attractive risk-reward balance with minimal drawdowns So, why wait? Dive into the Synthetix tide and let the currents guide you to profitable shores. Let's catch this wave together—follow for more deep dives and treasure troves! P.S. Don't forget to subscribe to this ideas flow right now😂
BINANCE:SNXUSDLong
by WealthRay
BTC BULL CYCLE PREDICTION This post is an idea I had about predicting this Bullrun cycle top using the previous cycles pattern. The general rule of the pattern is: - Bullcycle last 1065 days - Bear cycle lasts 365 days Knowing this we can predict that the end of the Bullrun will be... OCTOBER 2025. Meaning we have 670 days remaining. Estimating the peak price of BTC is a bit more challenging, we know there are diminishing returns with every complete cycle, the first cycle had a % drop of: Cycle 1-2 = 97.15% Cycle 2-3 = 82.14% By continuing the pattern of percentage drop of 15.01% per cycle, we get: Cycle 3-4 = 67.13% Using the previous Cycle % gain of 2,108.27% multiplied by our % drop off we get: 2,108.27*0.6713 = 1,315.24% or 14.1524x This then gives you % gain from start of the bull cycle. The bottom was $15,473.7 so... $15,473.7*14.1524 = $218,989 ~ $229,000/BTC CYCLE TOP Obviously this is all theoretical, I wanted to have a prediction post to look back on after this cycle but also to have a plan to sell long term holdings when price nears this area. Many aspects of the cryptocurrency world would have changed by October 2025. Mass adoption, ETF's, Regulation and so on will change the landscape of the market, this may be the last cycle of sizable gains before volatility leaves the space. 670 days left to make generational wealth.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ProR35
BTC half way through the cycle likely heading for at least 140kI've posted a BTC chart here last cycle, showing the weekly and monthly RSI cheat-sheet of where to buy and sell, and I trust it served many well (see the related idea below) The key to anticipating cycle targets ahead of time is the adoption curve, which is actually a straight line on a chart with log on both axes, but without log on the date axis (unsupported by TradingView sadly) one may plot points and retrofit curves into that as shown So far Bitcoin's price action has been oriented around "lay-line" diagonals similar to Gold (see my recent XAU chart) but the main difference is that the sectors on BTCUSD are now beginning to fractionalise owe to diminishing adoption curve returns At the bottom is my custom relative volume indicator which shows relative volume in a Bollinger Band sigma measurement fashion split down into a buy-to-sell ratio depending on the composition of the candle (this is the Bitstamp chart but a summation chart produces the exact same consistent capitulation flags) At some point I may list my RSI candles and RVB histogram as premium indicators here on TradingView since their tried-and-tested benefits are not to be underestimated as can be seen very clearly here The current blue bull cycle channel I called over a year ago before the support was even touched and I was able to do that because I recognised the angle of the resistance last Easter and extrapolated a projection from the last cycle (it's copy pasta of the same channel as last cycle basically) It has not moved since I was also able to call the 70k local top a month ago because I'm well aware that for whatever reason the numbers 7 & 14 are significant on the Bitcoin chart and that's why I also expect that this cycle will likely black swan past 140k briefly up to about 200k similar to how it shot to 20k past 14k seven years ago Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by markusrafferty
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #2)In this chart, we take a look at a second Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (2/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 linked below. This Concept #2 is an alternative 8-step cycle phase to my original concept. This zooms out further and takes Bitcoin from a greater 2-phase cycle perspective. This concept is for the long-term investor who aims to track major Bitcoin phases when time is not on their side. Treat each signpost phase as a ranged period mindset until the next is triggered. This is not to be conflicted with the original concept, however, another perspective. In this second concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2017 all-time high. From there it is projected sequentially again to 2026. The reasons for placement are through an observational nature in the structure of the cycles, or at least how I see it. From 2009 > 2011 > 2013 > 2017 as being marked one cycle, to 2017 > to now as a potential being marked as the second cycle. A repeat of this cycle however is on a larger scale. The ATHs to cycle lows across these two cycles are also noted as 2011's low from ATH was -93% whereas 2013 was 86%. Thus in 2017, it was -84% and to date 2022 is -76%. It appears that it is 1 larger drop proceeding by a lesser % drop. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the noted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up relates to the major pivots across the start and end of the sequence. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching for. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 2900 days (8yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat. We are 8 weeks, 3 days until we hit the next phase (Climb the Wall of Worry) This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Dec 2025. This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
ILMN Bullish ComebackOn the 12 month timeframe, or yearly supercycle, ILMN seems to be consolidating enough these first 3 months into 2024 to ultimately flip to the upside with maximum bull force. The company has a solid catalyst with AI facilitating the end goal of a super biopharma product that perhaps all humanity may have to rely on: a panacea. This panacea may come in the form of a machine that prompts the users exactly what symptoms they have, and produce a medicine that cures said symptoms. Something very well regulated and sophisticated enough to fuel the bull run of the decade for ILMN. A merger should be the cherry on top, and maybe the BNGO merger prophecy comes to fruition, but this only time will tell.
NASDAQ:ILMNLong
by JuanLagos94
NASDAQ 100 Short Term Correction Risk AnalysisIt is important to know when the NASDAQ:NDX and a few of its components are overextended and that a minor correction, aka retracement, is imminent. It doesn't really matter if you can guess the exact day, but it does matter that you can see the risk coming so that you can plan to take action on open positions and plan ahead for new positions for swing or position trading. The Weekly Chart above shows where very strong support will kick in. Somewhere within the Green Rectangle, the index is highly likely to find support. This is a very strong support level since it is a yearly high, and that defines where fundamentals were before this earnings season. The only thing that could derail it is an UNKNOWN negative event for the Buy Side Institutions. That is a very RARE event. So that is the long-term view. Just for fun, let's check the Monthly DPO Cycle chart. Exactly the same line as weekly but in a more stark perspective. The cycle line is bending which is a good pattern, but it can easily peak and go sideways, which would create a dip into the index's support level if a correction goes all the way to or into that rectangle. Okay, now the daily chart to determine the short-term or intermediate-trend support level. The first higher Rectangle is weak support. Second, lower Rectangle is moderate. There are heavily weighted stocks that have fundamentals at or within these levels as well.
NASDAQ:NDX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #3)In this chart, we explore a third Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (3/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 or concept #2 (linked below). In this concept, we position Bitcoin within an unconventional greater two-cycle phase, where the current cycle, Cycle 2, contributes to a Supercycle. It offers a twist that may appeal to the more contrarian, as its approach is taken from the emotional 'Herd' perspective. We use this to examine investor sentiment as it often conflicts with price action and can provide moments of opportunities or reasons to prepare and avert risk. Unlike other concepts, each signpost should be viewed as a rolling emotional peak within that period, until the next is triggered. This chart is not to be confused with other concepts, however, it can be confluent whilst still being conceptually distinct. In this third concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally in 2020. From there it is then projected sequentially again up until 2030. The rationale behind this theory is based on the idea that originated from my first-ever TV-published chart (linked below) . The shift in Bitcoin's cyclical nature poses a possibility that most of Bitcoin's growth from the early stages (2009 to 2013) is now in a repetitive sequence. This could indicate signs at greater levels playing into larger growth, which then forecasts a longer-term bear market. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the denoted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up closely correlates to the major pivots across Bitcoin's historical patterns. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This chart merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points and how Bitcoin can often play on emotion and sentiment-driven participants. Overall it is worth observing even without this concept as understanding timing and environmental circumstances can be just as crucial as managing risk or setting price targets. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: This chart is based on the 2-week timeframe as its projections are till mid-2030 With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib-time level (signpost) approximately triggers the next shift in the emotional phase. It is within a phase to anticipate the preceding signpost and observe the sentiment with the correct mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 3808 days (10.43yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, we will assess as I believe this concept could prove to be a new set of cycles. We are 2 weeks, and 3 days until we crossover the next signpost (The Fomo Sweats!) Crossing the next signpost does suggest that there is a 1-3 month period of rapid upside. This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Jun 2030. This is purely a concept and not certain and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
This cycle pattern on AUD/JPY hints at risk onAUD/JPY is holding above its 100-day EMA, and so far it looks like the spike lower last Thursday will be left unchallenged. This is more of an interesting observation than anything else, but... since July AUD/JPY has printed a prominent spike / higher low every 40 - 47 days. If that pattern is to hold, is suggests the next trough could land at the end of May / beginning of April. Given it is a proxy for risk, does this support a Wall Street rally which currently sits just off if its record highs? Growth outlook remains positive, inflation is falling and the BOJ are unlikely to shift away from an ultra-dovish policy. As long as any currency gains against the yen are not too aggressive, perhaps AUD/JPY is looking at another crack at 98. Although a feature of this 40-47 day cycle is for gains to be erratic and choppy before producing a sudden selloff into its spike low.
Long
by CityIndex