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Cycleanalysis

A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle (Concept #3)In this chart, we explore a third Bitcoin Fib-Time Cycles concept (3/5). Refer to the original idea for concept #1 or concept #2 (linked below). In this concept, we position Bitcoin within an unconventional greater two-cycle phase, where the current cycle, Cycle 2, contributes to a Supercycle. It offers a twist that may appeal to the more contrarian, as its approach is taken from the emotional 'Herd' perspective. We use this to examine investor sentiment as it often conflicts with price action and can provide moments of opportunities or reasons to prepare and avert risk. Unlike other concepts, each signpost should be viewed as a rolling emotional peak within that period, until the next is triggered. This chart is not to be confused with other concepts, however, it can be confluent whilst still being conceptually distinct. In this third concept, the positioning of the trend-based Fib-Time Extensions has been drawn from Bitcoin's inception to the first impulse rally in 2020. From there it is then projected sequentially again up until 2030. The rationale behind this theory is based on the idea that originated from my first-ever TV-published chart (linked below) . The shift in Bitcoin's cyclical nature poses a possibility that most of Bitcoin's growth from the early stages (2009 to 2013) is now in a repetitive sequence. This could indicate signs at greater levels playing into larger growth, which then forecasts a longer-term bear market. Note: These vertical projections are not manually placed; they are based on Fibonacci sequence numbers derived from the denoted placements (0-1). Interestingly, where they end up closely correlates to the major pivots across Bitcoin's historical patterns. Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish (short-term), cycles can play out over the years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why this is an alternative concept to others I have been exploring. More alternatives in the coming weeks and months. This chart merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles to date, highlighting key pivotal points and how Bitcoin can often play on emotion and sentiment-driven participants. Overall it is worth observing even without this concept as understanding timing and environmental circumstances can be just as crucial as managing risk or setting price targets. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want. Key Takeaways: This chart is based on the 2-week timeframe as its projections are till mid-2030 With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib-time level (signpost) approximately triggers the next shift in the emotional phase. It is within a phase to anticipate the preceding signpost and observe the sentiment with the correct mindset. Each fib range marks approximately 3808 days (10.43yrs) Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level. Once a cycle of phases is completed, we will assess as I believe this concept could prove to be a new set of cycles. We are 2 weeks, and 3 days until we crossover the next signpost (The Fomo Sweats!) Crossing the next signpost does suggest that there is a 1-3 month period of rapid upside. This current second iteration cycle is projected to end in Jun 2030. This is purely a concept and not certain and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
This cycle pattern on AUD/JPY hints at risk onAUD/JPY is holding above its 100-day EMA, and so far it looks like the spike lower last Thursday will be left unchallenged. This is more of an interesting observation than anything else, but... since July AUD/JPY has printed a prominent spike / higher low every 40 - 47 days. If that pattern is to hold, is suggests the next trough could land at the end of May / beginning of April. Given it is a proxy for risk, does this support a Wall Street rally which currently sits just off if its record highs? Growth outlook remains positive, inflation is falling and the BOJ are unlikely to shift away from an ultra-dovish policy. As long as any currency gains against the yen are not too aggressive, perhaps AUD/JPY is looking at another crack at 98. Although a feature of this 40-47 day cycle is for gains to be erratic and choppy before producing a sudden selloff into its spike low.
Long
by CityIndex
Bitcoin Bullrun Rings (2016-2024)In this chart, I showcase my major Bullrun Rings since 2016. As stated on the chart, there have only been 2 failures that still resulted in a major upturn into new ATHs. The only failed trigger since inception was marked in Nov 2013 (not depicted). This saw a close above the green ring and then closed below two weeks later. Prior to this date, 4 additional targets were also proven to signal upward continuation. With regards to my additional ring placements, they help guide and navigate price action direction and assist in providing forecasted support, resistance levels and pivot points. The results are evident and harmonic, to say the least. Forward-looking projections and Key Takeaways: As I see it here, there is a little upward free-ranging until we hit either the above or below rings. Just keep in mind, typically once crossed, that price is not seen for a long time, or if not at all. One major clue in identifying major moves is when these cycle Rings converge or cross one another. On and around the week of the 20th of May 2024 we will be seeing a major crossing of Rings multiple rings. Some of which are not here due to the inability to visually comprehend. I have labelled some price targets, but be aware rings are not straight and price can, at any point hit a ring. As it stands now the peak of the upper red ring is coincidentally the 2022 ATH at 69K Final Thoughts Become subjected to what may appear to be a solar system of overlapping crazy rings, but be sure to look closely and see for yourself the confluence and relationships these rings play into price action and timings. Thanks Here is a link to the original post x.com I will be sure to post updates zoomed in as we approach a ring.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LiquidMafia
3
Bitcoin - Buy The RallyHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Bitcoin. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: After Bitcoin created the previous cycle high in 2018 we saw a correction of more than -70%. This dip was the followed by a +2.000% rally and a perfect break and retest of the previous cycle high. If Bitcoin - after the recent rally - now retraces back to the important structure mentioned in the analysis, I am simply looking to add to my current long position. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by basictradingtv
10
⚠️BTC Market Cycle | Repetitive and Predictable Market Cycle.Hi COINEX:BTCUSDT ✅Today, I want to analyze Bitcoin for you in a daily time frame so that we can have a Mid-term view of Bitcoin regarding the technical analysis. (Please ✌️r espectfully ✌️share if you have a different opinion from me or other analysts). ➡️ Chart is speaking itself. According to the theory of Elliott waves, Bitcoin seems to have completed five impulse waves is now starting to form new corrective waves. -So far we are repeating ABC correction cycle Scenario? -Same RSI & MACD Divergence🔻 -Same rejection off the Major Resistance🔻 -The price has now completed wave A and is now creating wave B . The price can go up to 49K to complete wave B. - Resistance Zone(49K-$51k) & Support Zone(39k) -Bitcoin has been moving in an Ascending Channel for more than a year, and as long as Bitcoin is moving in this channel, we can still hope for the rise of Bitcoin. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅ Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️ Like ❤️ and 🌟 Follow 🌟! ⚠️ Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
by CobraVanguard
10
XRP - 20.000% RallyHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of XRP. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: After XRP has been trading in a triangle formation for over four years, we saw an expected breakout in 2017 followed by a rally of +25.000%. Exactly five years ago XRP then started forming a similar triangle (continuation) pattern and if we see a breakout towards the upside and a break above the resistance mentioned in the analysis, we could maybe see a similar rally. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
by basictradingtv
8
Risk for Correction as Earnings Season EndsChecking the Monthly DPO chart of NASDAQ:NDX , it is important to be prepared for the risk of a correction soon after earnings season ends OR as the final week or so of reports come in. Often, the weakest reports are toward the end as there are aging technologies among these. Corrections are necessary for a long-term uptrend to sustain. Notice that there is more room to move up to the previous cycle peak of 2021. This new cycle peak can go higher as corporations continue to increase their revenues and earnings this year. Also note that the extreme angle of ascent of the trend in 1998-2000 is far more severe than what has formed so far in this new bull market.
NASDAQ:NDX
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
A Bitcoin Prediction (2024)In this chart, I uncover price levels across an identified cyclical pattern hidden within Bitcoin. I was initially hesitant to publish this, as I had been pondering the theory for a few days. However, as the price approaches the Phase 2 level, I believe the timing cannot be ignored, and a reaction may be imminent as Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking out into Phase 2... I've posted a screenshot prior to where BTC is now (below) My discovery in finding this was not intentional nor was it believable. However, after identifying some familiar projective price targets deriving from Bitcoin's first cycle the compelling results left me intrigued and were enough for me to continue. Whilst continuously applying my method more and more results seemed to match with key pivotable phases. Once I hit 2020, I was sure to expect some variances, but to my surprise, there was not, and price levels were again matched to pivotable levels. It is to that point I followed through into 2024 and beyond. As stated in the chart there is no trickery rather, there is logic and reason. It appears, these predictions beyond 2024 are realistic and do not point to crazy moon boy levels. So with that, I leave this here to revisit and pay my respects. Some Observational and Key Points: I base some findings on a 2 x 8-year cycle rather than the conventional 4-year cycle. However, it may appear shorter than expected. Just as there are diminishing returns, there too is an aspect of diminishing cycle timing. While cycles are often recognised by their low and high targets, not many observe the time it takes to surpass a previous all-time high (ATH) or low. This is interesting because Bitcoin does not exhibit this repetitive behaviour in its history. I observed the peaks and troughs while noting the counts and periods across cycle phases and took a visual snapshot towards 2022-24 playing into more likely that of 2013-16. I've projected 2 ATHs as a range due to the nature of placement. The first target is primary, and wicks above could stretch into the second. Projections are also based on a 2-week (close) timeframe. Final comments: This is not an indication to be mega bullish and is NFA. The chart merely highlights developments I've identified and is not certain to play out, although quite probable. It is more of a "let's look back and indulge" - at least for me. Thanks and Enjoy!
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by LiquidMafia
5
Bitcoin's Cycle Shift: From Bearish to BullishSince November 2021, Bitcoin has undergone a transformative cycle shift, transitioning from a bearish to a bullish trajectory. After over two years of descent and trading within a persistent downtrend, Bitcoin now finds itself navigating a distinctly bullish channel. The current analysis suggests an upcoming retest of the upward trendline, followed by a potential ascent towards the $60,000 mark. The Cycle Transition: Bear to Bull Shift: Bitcoin's historical downtrend, prevalent since November 2021, has given way to a bullish cycle. This shift marks a pivotal moment, signaling a change in market sentiment and the emergence of a more favorable trading environment. Navigating the Ascending Channel: Bitcoin is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel, setting the stage for optimistic price action. The boundaries of this channel provide a framework for interpreting market dynamics and forecasting potential movements. Anticipating a Retest and Rally: Upcoming Retest: As part of the bullish cycle, a retest of the upward trendline is on the horizon. This retracement is a common occurrence in upward-trending markets, serving as a confirmation and validation of the newfound bullish sentiment. Targeting $60,000: Following the anticipated retest, the trajectory points towards a substantial rally, with a target set at $60,000. This level holds significance as both a psychological barrier and a potential pivot point for further market developments. Technical Analysis Insights: Confirmation Indicators: Technical indicators such as moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), and volume analysis can serve as confirmation tools for the bullish momentum. A convergence of positive signals from these indicators enhances the reliability of the forecast. Market Sentiment: Monitoring market sentiment through social media, forums, and news can provide additional insights into the broader perception of Bitcoin's price trajectory. A positive sentiment backdrop can act as a reinforcing factor for the anticipated rally. Conclusion: $60,000 in Sight Bitcoin's journey from a prolonged bearish cycle to a robust bullish trend is a compelling narrative for crypto enthusiasts. As the market prepares for an imminent retest of the upward trendline, the $60,000 target stands as a beacon of optimism. Stay tuned for the exciting developments as Bitcoin charts its course in the evolving crypto landscape. 📉 Bear to Bull Transition | 📈 Ascending Channel Dynamics | 🎯 Target: $60,000 💬 Share your insights on Bitcoin's current cycle shift and your predictions for its journey to $60,000! 🚀🌐
Long
by Yaroslav_Krasko
15
When Will Crypto/Equities top this Bull cycleMost of the asset we trade are traded against Dollar. So, to figure out when markets are going to peak out, we must look at DXY, which measures the strength of the dollar. In this post we will analyze the last bull/bear cycle and use that to predict what may happen in the current cycle. The Last Bull Cycle for equities/Crypto started when DXY topped out last time, which happened during Covid dump. The Last Bull Cycle ended and Bear Started when DXY Bottomed and Trend shifted to bull on Weekly marked by Weekly Break of Structure in November 2021. To figure out when Crypto/Equities will peak this cycle we will have figure out when will DXY bottom this cycle. I gave a full Wave Elliott wave count for DXY back in September last year predicting extended downtrend for DXY so far it has played out perfectly. Based on how PA has developed for DXY it looks like we are in corrective wave 4 of 5 waves down and final wave down is yet to come. The full wave count is posted here: I am confident that this is the fourth wave because the current bounce is not likely to be able to break structure on weekly as it did not happen from a significant source of Support or supply. To mark the bottom of DXY we need a weekly Break of structure I have highlighted that in the chart, we need a significant weekly close above 104.5 to mark change of trend which is unlikely to happen. Now let's use Wyckoff to further strengthen the argument that a final 5th wave down is yet to come we will use Wyckoff mode for that. Do you see the perfect match with model 1 Wyckoff Accumulation: Wyckoff Works like a charm on HTF, check out my Cardano prediction post in the description below where I predicted the bottom is 21 cents for Cardano using Wyckoff models. Now there are two weekly supply zones right below where DXY bounced from early last year which have the capacity to act as Springs for the next move up, the lower zone coincides with the lower trending of the parallel channel so highly likely that it marks the bottom for DXY, If not then DXY loses it multiyear uptrend and we are looking at a bull run of unimaginable proportion , but it very unlikely. Now even though these zones can mark the bottom for DXY, it doesn't mean Equities and Crypto will top immediately, notice in the last cycle, DXY spent quite some time at the lows before it broke weekly structure and that's what caused entire market to peak, and we started the bear run. So, it's possible it can happen in the similar fashion this time as well, or it can be an explosive move up, which is a real possibility because Wyckoff springs are very explosive, and if it causes weekly Break of structure that will be the top of the markets. With the current bounce being the wave 4 of the 5 wave down for DXY a correction is possible across the markets, notice in the chart I have highlighted in circle where we are in current cycle compared to last one, we are getting a bounce DXY right now just like we did last time in the middle of the bull run. This will cause turbulence in the markets and initiate a short-term correction, which aligns well with crypto as we all are expecting pre-halving dump like we have experienced in all previous cycles. Now we know at what level we are likely to bounce let's try to predict the timeline as to when we will see the bottom form on DXY. I have used Trend based fib time to predict the next pivot in DXY, it pulled from start of last bull run, we can see how perfectly all the pivots fall on the time fibs, so there no reason to think it won't do that next time as well. The next Pivot falls in May 2024. One can argue that DXY can to the upside and follow the red arrow in the chart below, but it's unlikely because of the reason discussed above. Now once it hits the pivot to the downside, we must monitor what it does. As mentioned above to mark the peak of bull cycle we need a weekly break of structure on DXY, whenever that happed after the pivot you know you need sell all and get out of the market without hesitation or short the market and make generational wealth over the course of year or 2. CAUTION: What's interesting to note here is, the next fib time date for DXY pivot coincides perfectly with the full length of the last bull cycle which was 84 weeks, if we measure 84 weeks since BTC and Equities bottomed this cycle it ends perfectly within few days of the next fib time pivot. So, it's possible the current bull run may be cut short, and we see an explosive move in DXY, A spring move like I mentioned above instead of slow grind up on DXY like it happened last time in previous cycle. Now don't be scared just yet, that all hope is lost for bulls if that happens, The Wyckoff accumulation model can fail and DXY doesn't make a significant move up and starts to drop after few months of up. The possibility of this happening is there but it's low, in the end we must watch DXY and when it gets there and see what happens.
TVC:DXY
by zakoraio