Gold. Where to sell/buy for better risk/reward ratio? 21/Sept/23The Fed just "giving" "ambiguous" "fundamental news" as usual. A "hints" for use to "interpret" with our own bias/perception.. Treat "news announcement" as "timing/cycle" for market not as "fundamentals for trading" maybe be a "good ideas"...
Cycleanalysis
📅📈4-Year Bull Cycle and the 100 SMA Connection 🔄📅 The 4-Year Bull Cycle: Many seasoned crypto traders are familiar with the concept of the 4-year bull cycle, which appears to be a recurring phenomenon in the world of cryptocurrencies. Historically, it's been observed that approximately every four years, Bitcoin experiences a significant surge in value.
📉 The Dip Before the Leap: Interestingly, before each of these major bull runs, there's often a notable dip in the price of Bitcoin. It's during these dips that we see Bitcoin briefly dropping below the 100 SMA (Simple Moving Average) on the charts.
🚀 Setting the Stage: The dip below the 100 SMA seems to serve as a setup for the next bullish wave. It's as if Bitcoin takes a brief breather, shakes off weaker hands, and then prepares for its ascent.
📈 Past as Prologue: While history doesn't guarantee future outcomes, this pattern reminds us of the cyclical nature of the crypto market. It's not uncommon to see Bitcoin drop below the 100 SMA, only to rally to new heights shortly afterward.
🔍 Key Takeaway: Keep an eye on the 100 SMA, but remember that it's just one piece of the puzzle. Crypto markets are influenced by a multitude of factors, and no single indicator can predict the future with absolute certainty.
💡 Stay Informed and Adaptable: As crypto enthusiasts, our strength lies in staying informed, adaptable, and open to various perspectives. While historical patterns can provide valuable insights, they should be considered alongside other indicators and analysis.
🔄 The Cycle Continues: Whether you're a seasoned trader or a crypto newcomer, understanding the patterns and rhythms of the market can be empowering. The 4-year bull cycle and its dance with the 100 SMA are just part of the ongoing saga of crypto.
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US dollar/DXY just broke Liquidity zone. 8/Sept/23USD just broke Buy Side Liquidity / Stop Hunting zone @ 104.699 which is ..? AND more importantly what will happen to the correlation within Gold and SP500? start moving different direction or same? until 21 Sept 23? Depend on whether it is "risk on" or "risk off"?
The End of a Bear Market : Structural Breaks 📉📈🐻 Bear Market Recap: A bear market is marked by a prolonged period of declining prices and pessimistic sentiment. It can be challenging for investors, but it also sets the stage for a potential turnaround.
📉 Structural Breaks: One of the key signs that a bear market might be ending is the emergence of structural breaks on the price chart. These breaks could include a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
🚀 The Bullish Catalyst: Structural breaks are often accompanied by increased buying interest, a resurgence of optimism, and a more positive outlook for the asset in question.
🔍 The Importance of Retesting: After witnessing structural breaks, it's common to see a retest of old highs or key resistance levels. This retest serves as a critical validation of the new bullish sentiment. If the asset successfully retests and holds above these levels, it could be a sign that a new bull market is underway.
🔮 The Future Unfolds: While recognizing the signs of a potential market shift is valuable, always approach it with caution. Markets are complex, and not all structural breaks lead to sustained bull markets.
In conclusion, identifying the end of a bear market and the start of a new bullish phase involves recognizing structural breaks on the chart and understanding the significance of retesting old highs. It's a critical juncture in market dynamics and can present exciting opportunities for investors.
Stay vigilant, stay analytical, and remember – the transition from bear to bull is a moment of transformation and potential growth! 📊🚀
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Topglove! Good News! Finally reached 0.725! 1/Sept/23By "breaching" 0.80 again and reached 0.725 as last post on 20/May/23. Market Maker finally "creating panic selling!". But checking from smaller/lower time frame chart. its price still have high probability reaching @ 0.71-0.70 +/- before multi years bottom formed!
Happy Holiday And A Long Term Vision🎉Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and I am on vacation for the next 4 days until Wednesday evening.
I won't post any analysis until then but here is a long term outlook on Bitcoin💰💰
Everything looks still very bullish despite the recent drop so keep your long term vision and I will certainly buy the dip.
Will be back on Wednesday!
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint📈
Thank you for your support and I will see you on Wednesday!
My previous analysis of this asset:
BTC Analysis for the Next CycleBTC Analysis for the Next Cycle
The reason i am predicting that support the last support is,In the previous cycle of btc have one common characteristics that when ever btc defence it bottom,it came near to bottom to panic people that it will break that bottom defined.But everytime its bounce from near to bottom still now,Hope it will also repeat that this time too...
Impact of Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization on Market DynamicIn the world of cryptocurrency, staying informed about market trends and indicators is essential for making informed trading decisions. One crucial metric that often goes hand-in-hand with market sentiment is the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization. This article delves into why keeping an eye on the cryptocurrency market capitalization is crucial and how it can provide insights into the broader market situation.
Understanding Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization:
Market capitalization refers to the total value of a cryptocurrency or the entire cryptocurrency market. It's calculated by multiplying the current price of a cryptocurrency by its circulating supply. Monitoring the market capitalization provides a snapshot of the market's size and valuation at any given time.
The Impact on Market Dynamics:
Keeping track of cryptocurrency market capitalization can offer valuable insights into market dynamics and trends. Here's why it matters:
Market Sentiment Indicator: Changes in market capitalization can reflect shifts in investor sentiment. Rapid increases may indicate bullish enthusiasm, while significant declines might signify market apprehension.
Market Trends Identification: Monitoring market capitalization over time can help identify trends such as bull markets, bear markets, and periods of consolidation. It offers a broader context for analyzing price movements.
Relative Comparison: Comparing the market capitalization of different cryptocurrencies allows traders to assess their relative performance. It helps in identifying potential investment opportunities.
Impact of Market Events: Major news, regulatory developments, or technological advancements can influence overall market capitalization. Tracking these changes can provide insights into market reactions.
Market Liquidity: Market capitalization can also give an indication of the overall liquidity of the cryptocurrency market. Higher market capitalization often implies higher trading volumes and increased market activity.
Conclusion:
Monitoring the cryptocurrency market capitalization is an essential practice for traders and investors seeking a comprehensive understanding of the market's dynamics. It serves as a key indicator of sentiment, trends, and the broader market situation. Combining insights from market capitalization with technical analysis, fundamental research, and other indicators can enhance your decision-making process.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, adapt your strategies to account for changing market conditions. Remember that market capitalization is just one piece of the puzzle, and a holistic approach that considers multiple factors is crucial for successful trading in this dynamic landscape.
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$NVDA Extreme Peak PatternYesterday's Top Gainer for the NASDAQ has found support at a precise technical level. This is usually technical professional traders. There could also be a few Dark Pools in the mix.
DPO Cycle Chart: The Detrending Price Oscillator I use to show the long-term cycle of a stock shows an Extreme Peak which needs to pattern out with the stock shifting sideways for a while. The Extreme Peak is not necessarily an exhaustion of trend pattern.
Between 2007 and 2020, NASDAQ:AAPL had 4 Extreme peaks, corrected and resumed the uptrend between each peak. Troughs were shallow during those years.
NASDAQ:NVDA needs to shift into a platform or other sideways trend to pattern out the Extreme Upward Cycle Peak. Otherwise, at some point, the over-speculated price will become a correction on the short-term or intermediate-term trend. This means that NVDA can move higher for a while BUT this is not an ideal long-term entry level until it patterns out that extreme peak.
Bitcoin - Accumulation PhasesIn this graph I show you all the accumulation phases bitcoin has been in so far.
An accumulation phase is a stage that all assets go through.
After a prolonged period of growth, the asset declines and enters an accumulation phase.
It's during this time that savvy investors buy in, anticipating the next upward trend.
It's important to note that we might remain within this trading range for another year before breaking out of it. While I believe a breakout will happen sooner, historical trends suggest otherwise, unless we replicate the 2011-2012 pattern.
Regardless, this could present a favorable buying opportunity for Bitcoin within this range, with potential selling during the euphoria (distribution stage).
To be able to see the chart like this, turn on logarithmic scale in your Tradingview.
Potential of Gooner EMA Crossovers in Bull Markets 📈🐂The Gooner EMA crossover strategy revolves around the interaction of two Exponential Moving Averages – a short-term EMA and a long-term EMA. When the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term EMA, it generates a bullish signal. Conversely, when the short-term EMA crosses below the long-term EMA, a bearish signal emerges.
The Influence of Gooner EMA Crossovers in Bull Markets:
Gooner EMA crossovers carry substantial implications, particularly in bull markets. Here's why they matter:
Trend Confirmation: A bullish crossover, where the short-term EMA crosses above the long-term EMA, confirms the presence of an emerging bullish trend. This indicates potential upward momentum and the possibility of sustained price appreciation.
Entry Point Identification: Gooner EMA crossovers offer traders an opportunity to pinpoint entry points in bull markets. When the bullish crossover occurs, it signifies that the asset's momentum is shifting positively, making it an ideal moment to consider initiating a long position.
Visual Clarity: Crossovers are visually evident on price charts, making them easy to identify. Their clear representation provides traders with a straightforward signal for making informed trading decisions.
Timing Advantage: Gooner EMA crossovers offer traders timely insights into market shifts. Acting promptly upon the occurrence of crossovers enables traders to capitalize on the evolving market conditions effectively.
Supporting Technical Analysis: While Gooner EMA crossovers are strong indicators, combining them with other technical tools can enhance your analysis. Confirming crossovers with additional indicators or patterns adds another layer of confidence to your trading decisions.
Conclusion:
In the realm of trading, Gooner EMA crossovers are a powerful tool, especially in bull markets. They serve as robust signals for confirming bullish trends and identifying potential entry points. As you navigate the dynamic landscape of trading, integrating Gooner EMA crossovers into a comprehensive trading strategy alongside other technical indicators and analysis tools can elevate your decision-making prowess and empower you to seize opportunities effectively. Remember that successful trading involves a holistic approach, discipline, and continuous learning. 🚀📈
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Innovation boosts P/E ratios - P/E ration evolvesTechnological Innovation is Compounding
Technological progress has huge impact on the P/E ratios of companies and the S&P 500. Technologically advanced companies naturally have a higher P/E as it's expected from them to have better future earnings. One of the ways better future earnings happen is through efficiency leaps. These efficiency leaps are important to businesses' margins but it all comes down to:
better tech = more efficiency = lower costs = higher earnings = higher P/E
These innovation cycles bring efficiency leaps that are linked to P/E ratio waves.
We can observe in this chart that the P/E ratio has cycles that coincide with innovation cycles. There were, of course, macroeconomic factors and wars that impacted the P/E, but high P/E can be explained by innovation cycles.
We can also see that each innovation cycle will have higher P/E ratios than the previous. By looking at this chart, it feels that the P/E ratios still have room to grow.
ADAUSD is the bottom in? Where could it go?The last time ADAUSD created a macro market bottom and rallied, it gained about 17,000%. If history holds any merit, it may make moves like this again in the future. However, it's important to highlight that ADA could be targeted by the SEC for violations. It's also the case that Metcalf's law requires more users to use ADA blockchain in order for the price to increase. It is also true that the law of diminishing returns may dampen the potential upcoming pump.
DOGEUSD is the bottom in? Where could it go?Historically, DOGEUSD has rallied between 2,800% and a whopping 60,000% after creating a macro market bottom. It may be the case that DOGE rallies in similar ways in the future. It's worth noting that Metcalf's law is important; as well as the law of diminishing returns.
Death-to-the-Golden Cross // BTC 100d-MA & 600d-MA During the previous 2 cycles, once CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's 100d-MA fell below the 600d-MA (death cross), CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's price proceeded to capitulate to at or near the bear market lows.
Once CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's 100d-MA moved above the 600d-MA (golden cross), the 100d-MA did not come back down below the 600d-MA until the following cycle's lows.
Moving now to the current cycle, CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's 100d-MA once again fell below the 600d-MA on May 13 2023. CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's price then proceeded to capitulate down to the current cycle's low (~$15,473).
Then on July 26 2023, CRYPTOCAP:BTC 's 100d-MA moved above the 600d-MA.
Now we just need to wait and see if the trend holds.
Confirmation won't be known until either the next bull cycle really kicks off, or if the 100d-MA is not able to hold above the 600d-MA before price can reach a new ATH.
Death to the Golden Cross