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Cycleanalysis

Is the BTCUSD bottom in? Where could it go?Historically, BTCUSD has corrected over 75% from its all time high on many occasions. After these corrections, BTCUSD has rallied anywhere between 1,600% and over 13,000% from its market bottom, according to this price chart. I believe BTCUSD could do the same again in the future. How high will it go? That's challenging to determine. If history holds any merit at all, we could see prices rally over 13,000% from the recent market bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BACapitalManagement
Bitcoin bull market (pre-halving)Hi everyone, When Pi Cycle bottom, which is a free indicator, cross up with 1 week candle and holdl support, there are great chances that the bottom is in. As long as, red line hodl support we can see further upside price action. Even in 2019, when the price was rising for short time, red line showed danger as soon as the 1 week candle broke down and confirmed. This cycle looks like 2015 cycle more than 2019 so $27.7k will be one important level to watch for next weeks. Cheers!
BNC:BLXLong
by cryptoforevery1
Are there really Cycles in the Crypto market?Are there really Cycles in the Crypto market? Are there really cycles in the markets? -Are cycles only in the stock market or in all walks of life? -What is the use of understanding cycles? -How is it always going up or not? -If it always goes up, why do the majority lose? -Is there a similarity? Does it always have to be similar? -How do we recognize meaningful textures? How do we distinguish between cycles and meaningless similarities? Are altoins long-term or cyclical? -But could it be different this time? Cycles and similarities actually exist in every aspect of life. In living beings, inanimate beings, radioactive elements, our planet, the universe, the devices we use, products, history, sports and the part that interests us - the markets. As long as humans and markets exist, these cycles will continue. If human behavior is similar across time, the consequences of human behavior should be similar. So, what do we actually see in the graphs. "Consequences of human behavior Within cycles, there will always be new winners and losers. This is why the stock market exists. In order for the last losers to win, new last-comers must enter the market (new cycle). Cycles in crypto are faster than in general markets. Cycles that used to take almost a human lifetime in classical exchanges, commodities and exchange rates have now been reduced to shorter periods due to the speed of life, the impact of technology and the increase in the number of investors. Another reason for the speed in crypto is that the market can be traded 24/7 and 365 days a year. Within a year, we see more transactions and more movement in crypto than in other markets. The crypto market is the most suitable market for the speed of the new world (technology-fashion-obsolescence-consumption speed, etc.) and reflects the speed of the age. Fast technology, fast fashion, fast communication, fast human relations, fast production-consumption; and of course fast MARKET. The increase in speed in every aspect of life would of course also affect the markets. There are good and bad sides to this; very quick losses and very quick gains. Reasons for rapid losses and gains: a-) The market we are in is not regulated (rule-law), b-) The fact that its technology is very new, that its technological part is understood only by a certain segment of the population, again speaking for the world in general; + a very minority group is only capable of distinguishing right from wrong with their own analysis, c-) With just a phone; it can be operated very simply by everyone (young, old, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, women, men, etc.) regardless of class, gender, age What do I mean by the above? a-) Lack of supervisory and regulatory rules; There are no regulations protecting investors in this market. In other words, our money is not protected or insured by any state-institution as of now. As you know, when there are no rules and when there is big and easy money involved, people with bad intentions end up here. The fact that it's easy to issue tokens, that there are no rules for creating tokens, selling them, marketing them, advertising them Limited number of shares in the stock exchanges and too many rules for going public (according to crypto=) ) So coins come out almost every minute. Exchanges can be easily opened in tax haven countries, Easy (low-cost) listing of coins on decentralized exchanges or shitcoin exchanges. It is easy to issue and sell tokens as if you were creating an asset from scratch with no strings attached, and it is very easy to sell during bull periods, No penalties for marketing and manipulating Shitcoins on Social Media. Since it is the most risk-averse market in the world, rug-pulling is considered normal by investors. Experienced malicious people can make big profits in a short period of time at a low cost. (We have seen many examples of the bull, which we have seen many examples of before, hitting 4-5m USD with a cost of $ 50,000 and escaping - advertising, shilling, etc.). b-) Incompetent people believe in everything and enter into direct transactions without knowing and learning (creating volume) (small money - many transactions) Experienced investors make fewer transactions with more information and analysis (big money - few transactions), On the contrary, inadequate or new investors taking more transactions with sudden decisions and feelings, "More transactions, more money perception", stock market advertisements that push believers to make more transactions (Exchange = gettin commission income) Are altoins long-term or cyclical? To put it crudely: The more shitcoin an Altcoin is, the more cyclical it is (i.e. earn during the trend and run away when the trend ends). The more quality and proven Altcoin is, and the more it solves a problem, the more long-term it is. You can look at Altcoin/btc parities to see what I mean. Very few Altcoins have been able to show a sustainable increase against BTC and only in certain periods. Does the crypto market always have to grow? Unless there are very harsh regulations or bans, "Yes" against paper currencies. it doesn't matter whether it is usd, eur or gbp. Content of cycles: Briefly: 3 periods Decline from peak > accumulation > ascent Bottom level base formation, saw zone, pre-rally, disbelief, aggressive rally. Afterwards, the cycle repeats according to the conditions of the coming days. Although the cycles follow one another, each cycle is different from each other. That is, the periods of decline-accumulation-rise can be of different lengths. Depending on the conditions of the period, there may have been a very long uptrend. This may be followed by a very long and sharp correction. At the end of a weak trend, the downturn may be short. We will examine the details on the charts. When we enter the accumulation period, the price has realized the bottom formation and the products sold at the peak have started to be collected again at low cost by the big players (capital, whales, rich people, masons, 7 families ruling the world, whatever you want to call it:) ). This process can be long or short depending on the period (see chainlink) Sometimes markets can recover quickly with a V shape (rapid decline-fast reaction) (covid period). Sometimes we see a saw in a certain narrow price range at the bottom. (Btc 2015-2016) The aim is to collect goods without raising the price and without making it obvious. Understanding the cycle through Doge? Dogecoin was launched in December 2013. In December this year, it will be 10 years old. That's a long time for the crypto market. We have witnessed 3 different cycles of Doge in these 10 years. 1. Trend > It took 476 minutes to fall from its peak to its lowest point. It then rose from this point (not forming a new bottom) and accumulated. This up and down process lasted until February 2017. This is where the "doge-style bullish" phase, as we will later call it, began. In the region where this uptrend started, it gets support from the 100-week moving average (100w sma) and the move begins. Level 1: peak zone Level 2: Intermediate transition line (Important support-resistances are in place) Level 3: Bottom and Accumulation bowl 2nd Trend > The uptrend that started in February 2017 continues until January 2018 with 2 stages. The 3-level structure is also seen here. The decline from the peak to the low lasts 798 days. The upward break of the trend lasts 910. Here, too, the region gets support from the 100-week moving average (100w sma) and aggressive action begins. We can say that the rise until May 2021 is again in 2 phases. Trend 3 > Along with the whole market, Doge's trend turns bearish in May 2021. The lowest level we have seen so far in Doge within this trend is $0.05. 833 days have passed since the May 2021 peak. We are below the 100-week average and the average is now at $0.11. What's important in this Dogecoin cycle chart; 3-level structure Time from peak > trend breakout Position relative to the 100-week moving average Aggressive 2-stage bullish moves starting after the trend breakout. Explaining it through Doge is easy for both the narrator and the reader. It shows the cycle clearly. I have prepared multiple doge charts, you can review them. Are there similarities, and if so, do they always have to be similar? Capturing similarities and using them meaningfully Similarity does not always have to be in every product. Different actions may have taken place in very different scenarios. The important thing is to find the mathematically meaningful similarity and draw conclusions in a way that is useful to us. Similarity is not just a resemblance of shape when viewed from a distance. It must be confirmed in many ways and temporally proportional. It should also be possible with important indicators such as Rsi and moving averages. Just as technical analysis is not just 2 lines, similarity is not just a resemblance of shape. It should also be kept in mind. Cycles and similarities are most meaningful on long-term charts Siacoin XRP/BTC VERGE Digibyte
BNC:BLXLong
by Cryptollica
Bitcoin (BTC) in 2023: Transitioning into a Bull Cycle High-Level Overview: As we progress through 2023, it appears that Bitcoin (BTC) has transitioned into a cycle impulse wave, a bull run in a five-wave structure, from the bottom of the recent bear market. Within this cycle impulse wave, we are currently in the first primary wave, which is projected to climb up to the 39-40k range. However, this upward trajectory is not without potential roadblocks. Following this initial surge, we can expect a primary Wave 2 correction that could pull BTC down to the 22-24k range by the end of the year. Short-Term Details: Drilling down further into the structure of this first primary impulse wave, we are currently in the intermediate Wave 5. This wave could potentially drive BTC's value up to the 39-40k mark by the end of September. As part of this intermediate wave 5, we are presently in a minor Wave 2 correction. This correction phase may see BTC's price finding support at the 28-29k level. Following this correction, we anticipate a strong minor impulse Wave 3, potentially pushing BTC up to the 1.618 Fibonacci level, which equates to around 36k. Subsequent to Wave 3, minor Wave 4 is predicted to retrace but should not drop below the top of Wave 1, thereby maintaining a support level of over 31.5k. Finally, after this minor Wave 4 correction, we should see the final push of minor Wave 5. This final wave within the intermediate wave sequence could see BTC hitting the 39-40k target. --- Disclaimer: This analysis uses the Elliott Wave Theory, volume profile, and Fibonacci retracement levels for technical analysis. However, financial markets are inherently unpredictable and influenced by numerous factors. This forecast is not financial advice but an interpretation of potential market movements. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance when making investment decisions. Please keep in mind that the Elliott Wave Theory is highly subjective and open to interpretation. In addition, real-world markets are rarely as neat and predictable as theoretical models, so anomalies and irregular patterns do happen.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HedgeMode
2
ETH Cycle Update ETHUSD 20 Weekly EMA Now on Top ETHUSD Last 20 Weekly EMA on Top was June 2020 After June 2020 ETHUSD used the ETHUSD 15 Weekly as Support ETHUSD is now testing the upper BB and KC on Weekly ETHUSD is now testing the middle lower Green zone on Weekly from ETH Log Curve ETHUSD Weekly Support Resistance Levels If ETHUSD can break the $2028 level, it will likely test the $2084 or $2118 levels. ETHUSD 4 Month Cycle Perspective Confirmed in Green. Price may now use Green cycle level as support. ETHUSD 4M Cycle Levels shown in chart with Red, Yellow and Green dots. ETHUSD Weekly Adjusted Realized Price Scale ETHUSD Weekly Adjusted Realized Price May Now be using Level 5 (from bottom) as Support ETHUSD 3 Weekly TTM Showing Similarities to June/July of 2020 ETH Monthly DB CF Pro Showing $2120 is a Reasonable Possibility Before Months End (for up side) and $1800 still possible for the monthly downside
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by thefluffyones
How I trade using Market CyclesHere's how I trade using Market Cycles. I use a custom made indicator, a weighted combination of Donchian, RSI & Stochastic RSI, called Market Cycle. I use the Daily timeframe, looking for signals at the end of each trading day. I have 2 Market Cycles: Using Daily data, and using Monthly data. Buy signal: Monthly MC is below 40, the Daily MC cross over 20 Sell signal: Monthly MC is over 60, the Daily MC cross below 80. If the ATR is high, that's a stronger signal. This strategy works best on stocks that trade in a range with a decent volatility and a decent volume. Can be used to accumulate shares on long term investment and lower the average cost. This is not an investment advice, use your best judgement and experience.
NEO:SEI
by leap-forward
1
AI Shaping the Market Landscape of 2030-sDear @TradingView , Today, I would like to share some observations regarding the S&P Composite index that highlight a repeatable market cycle. It is evident that this cycle consists of a 30-20 year period of Economic Growth, followed by a subsequent phase of 15-10 years characterized by Downturn or Sideways movement. By examining the historical data, we can identify patterns that shed light on the cyclical nature of the market. Throughout history, the market has experienced periods of significant economic expansion, often driven by transformative inventions and advancements. These innovations, such as sailing, engines, railroads, electricity, medicine, computers, the internet, smartphones, fertilizer, and artificial intelligence, have played pivotal roles in shaping positive market trends. Each breakthrough has had a profound impact on various industries, driving productivity, and spurring economic growth. Sailing: Pioneering Global Trade (Timeline: Ancient Times) Sailing, one of humanity's earliest inventions, opened up new avenues for exploration and trade. The ability to traverse vast distances by sea connected civilizations, facilitated the exchange of goods, and laid the foundation for early economic systems. Engines: Powering Industrial Revolution (Timeline: 18th-19th Century) The invention of steam engines during the Industrial Revolution revolutionized manufacturing and transportation. Steam-powered engines enabled the mass production of goods and led to the creation of railways, powering economic growth and fostering global trade networks. Railroads: Connecting Nations (Timeline: 19th Century) The advent of railroads marked a monumental shift in transportation. The construction of railway networks facilitated efficient movement of goods and people, enabling rapid industrialization and spurring economic development across continents. Fertilizer: Revolutionizing Agriculture (Timeline: 19th Century) The development and widespread use of fertilizers marked a significant turning point in agricultural practices. During the 19th century, scientists discovered the importance of essential nutrients for plant growth. The invention of chemical fertilizers allowed farmers to replenish soil nutrients, thereby increasing crop yields and transforming agricultural productivity. The widespread adoption of fertilizers revolutionized global food production, ensuring food security and supporting population growth. Electricity: Illuminating a New Era (Timeline: Late 19th Century) The discovery and harnessing of electricity ushered in a new era of innovation and productivity. Electric power revolutionized industries, enabling the mass production of consumer goods, while also transforming communication and lighting systems, contributing to economic growth. Medicine: Advancing Healthcare (Timeline: 20th Century) Medical advancements, such as vaccines, antibiotics, and improved surgical techniques, have significantly improved public health and increased life expectancy. These breakthroughs not only saved lives but also led to increased productivity and economic stability. Computers: Automation and Digital Revolution (Timeline: 20th Century) The invention of computers and subsequent advancements in computing technology revolutionized the way we work, communicate, and process information. Automation, data analysis, and improved efficiency in various sectors led to increased productivity and the emergence of new industries. The Internet: Global Connectivity (Timeline: Late 20th Century) The internet, a transformative invention of the late 20th century, connected the world in an unprecedented manner. It facilitated the exchange of information, enabled e-commerce, and transformed communication. The internet played a pivotal role in the emergence of new business models and industries, driving market growth. Smartphones: Empowering Connectivity (Timeline: 21st Century) Smartphones revolutionized the way we access information, communicate, and interact with the world. These handheld devices amalgamated various technologies, such as internet connectivity, computing power, and applications, making them indispensable tools for personal and business use. The widespread adoption of smartphones led to significant advancements in mobile technology and transformed industries such as e-commerce, social media, and digital entertainment. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Shaping the Future (Timeline: Present) Artificial intelligence has emerged as a game-changer in recent years, with applications spanning across industries. AI algorithms and machine learning techniques are driving automation, data analysis, and predictive capabilities, enhancing productivity and enabling the development of innovative solutions. AI continues to revolutionize industries such as writing, coding, finance, security, manufacturing, and transportation, driving market growth and shaping the future of various sectors. Throughout history, transformative inventions and advancements have played crucial roles in shaping the market landscape. The S&P Composite index serves as a valuable tool to gauge market performance and track these cycles over time. By analyzing the historical movements of the index, we can observe the repetitive pattern of prolonged Economic Growth, typically spanning around 30-20 years. During this phase, the market experiences upward trends driven by innovation, increasing productivity, and expanding global trade. However, it is important to recognize that these periods of growth are not indefinite. As history has shown, there comes a point when the market enters a phase of Downturn or Sideways movement, lasting approximately 15-10 years. This phase is characterized by market corrections, global wars, economic recessions, or periods of depression, where the market may exhibit increased volatility and limited overall growth. Sincerely Artem Shevelev
TVC:SPX
by ArShevelev
1
QRTEA, another cyclical peak?Since 2015 this stock has reached a peak every 3 years approximately, as it happened in 2018 and 2021, this time it could happen again around mid 2024 as the price has plumbed drastically, reaching an all-time low. If this is true, then price could be around 7 to 10 dollars during 2024. If "Project Athens" is succcesfful and the company is able to regain profitability, generate cash, keep good levels of revenues and make a sound transition to streaming and ecommerce, then this stock could recover and gain a strong terrain as before. How long do you think this downtrend will continue?
NASDAQ:QRTEALong
by amateur_trad3r
LINK - 4 Phases YOU Should Know 📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. The markets are currently taking a breather after upside price action and this is typically where we expect altcoins to shine. Chainlink is particularly interesting to watch at this point since it has been trading range for an extended period of time. This is bullish according to the Wyckoff Method Analysis and other market cycle- or phase analysis'. This chart presents an easy guide to market cycles considering the moving averages and the macro perspective. Can you guess what phase we are currently in and what comes next? 🔥 Here's another altcoin with great upside potential that you may not have heard of : Shirtium _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Long
by CryptoCheck-
44
Bitcoin -> The Final DropHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . On the weekly timeframe you can see that Bitcoin just recently perfectly created and also already confirmed a quite nice inverted head and shoulders with the neckline being exactly at the $25000 area. From a weekly perspective everything seems quite bullish overall so I am now just waiting for a retest of the neckline before I then do expect the next push towards the upside. On the daily timeframe you can see that over the past couple of days Bitcoin has just been trading in a sideways range so I am also on the daily timeframe waiting for a retest of the $25000 area and then the next impulse towards the upside. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by basictradingtv
39
The Realest Post You Will Read All YearWhy you should care to listen to this. I first discovered crypto in 2013, but my initial encounter with Bitcoin dates back to 2009. At the time, I dismissed a considerable amount of Bitcoin as a trivial payment for a World of Warcraft private game server admin position. However, in 2011, I was reintroduced to Bitcoin and purchased a significant amount for $10. Unfortunately, after losing my father and misplacing the hard drive containing my Bitcoin during his eviction, I was filled with regret by 2013. Now, I can look back and laugh at those experiences, as they led me to see a much bigger picture. Bitcoin operates in cycles, and it's easy to get caught up in the present moment, listening to influencers claiming that it's all over for the sake of views on their channels. I'm here to explain the true nature of the market, hoping to provide you with a sense of clarity and liberation. A few years ago, Warren Buffet's quote, "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own," was as ubiquitous as the definition of insanity. Despite its overuse, the quote held true. However, when faced with reality, people still tend to act on fear. Market cycles are influenced by fear, as seen in the news, lunar cycles, and retrogrades' gravitational waves. It is fascinating how the market operates based on these factors. There are two fundamental human emotions: fear and love. Everything can be traced back to these emotions in one way or another. Our minds are wired to respond strongly to fear, which is why our reality often revolves around it. Trading on higher timeframes can be easier for some because it doesn't require constant attention to the cyclical nature of the market. I have previously mentioned that this recurring cycle will happen once more before the market undergoes a significant change. Currently, there is widespread fear of banks failing, but if we look at history, such events were never anticipated. The 2008 crash began just after reaching all-time highs. In the market, traders often encounter psychological tactics employed by market makers to influence their actions. Emotionless trading is essential to navigate these tactics. By utilizing basic technical analysis one can anticipate market movements, as demonstrated in my earlier idea from last year (I will link to it for reference). Many people in the market cannot afford to trade their $100 or $1000, but they would fare better if they identified promising opportunities and left their investments to grow while they worked on increasing their account balance. High-margin trading, is akin to gambling. I have lost significant amounts in high-margin trades, watching the market move to my liquidation point on one exchange while others remained unaffected. It's crucial to understand that long-term investing generates wealth. Allocating 10% of your total balance to promising altcoins is a wise strategy. Focus on consistently investing in cryptocurrencies and stocks while working hard, and you'll see success. Betting on the unlikely scenario of the US dollar failing and causing societal collapse isn't productive. I predict that Bitcoin will experience an upward wave for a few months, followed by a retracement of that wave, and then gradually work its way up to all-time highs, just like in previous cycles. This may be difficult to visualize amid the world's turmoil, but adopting a month-by-month approach rather than an hour-by-hour one can provide clarity. Stay resilient and maintain a clear mind. You can't turn $100 into a million dollars in two days. Instead, work hard, save, and invest gradually in the market. The best advice is to earn $10,000 to $100,000 from the market and then start your own business. Remember, this is just my opinion, and I hope it helps. Bitcoin has repeatedly defied predictions of continuous decline. While it's possible we could see a drop to $12,000 - $13,000 due to a black swan event, similar to March 2020, it's not worth waiting idly for that moment. Choose the long route; your life will still be here in two years, and impulsively risking everything won't bring lasting change. If you're interested in learning how to trade like a pro and want access to unique tools, visit my website, as mentioned in the description. If you trade NASDAQ futures, you'll be thrilled with our recent release. Take care and remember to invest wisely, focusing on long-term growth rather than seeking immediate results. Slowly add to your investments with each paycheck, and avoid waiting for the "perfect" price. If you listen to anything I have to say, remember this: the right time to start investing is now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Psycho_1-1
3