BTM following a cyclical cup and handlepattern on a 4 day periodBTM has been following this uptrend pattern over the past two weeks. My next buy will be about .0005 (on~ 06/26) and hoping to sell .0007 a few days later (~06/29).
Ichimoku cloud supports a general uptrend in BTMBTC so I think buying isn't overly risky - rather you want to buy at optimal entry points so focus on that so follow MACD and the supports
I'll answer any questions on this!
Donations if you feel inclined in BTC : 1PdYRwtiiyrs5fZw778XKD4SX3f8iaxMnd
Best,
Aaron
Cyclical
How much will overbought Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector Fall? XLPThe Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since shortly after the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently near its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip while it continues its overall bull trend.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 80.8116. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 21.5180. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3859 and the negative is at 0.5248. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators are at extreme levels indicating a pending reversal of the fund is imminent. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for one or two more days at the most before ultimately turning downward. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators.
On three occasions since September 2013, the RSI, positive VI, and stochastic have been at similarly extreme levels at the same time. All three occasions led to drops for the fund. In September 2013 the fund dropped 5.25% in 13 trading days. In October 2013 the fund lost 2.91% over the next 35 trading days. Eventually the fund dropped more than 7% from the October RSI peak (the bottom occurred at the end of January 2014). The smallest decline was seen in February of this year when the fund declined 1.63% over 22 trading days. A natural decline will occur in our current instance, the main question is how much?
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 1.63% over the next 25 trading days if not
Do yourself a favor and short TSLA. Cyclical analysis.Great potential. I advice derivatives to maximize profit.
What does VIX tell us?As we know the volatility index VIX is inversely correlated with the market performance – the higher the VIX, the lower the market. Currently VIX is at record lows and the question how long it could stay there is relevant to many investors. On the chart I have marked an interesting relation in the VIX - a cyclical patterns.
Some of my findings:
1. Spring months usually mark period of low volatility – around 150-160 days between two VIX peaks for the last 4 years
2. If VIX strikes above 25, the next peak is very likely to be around 310 days later
3. For the last year peak to trough duration took about 60-80 days. If that appears to be the case again we have already reached the lowest point, as the last peak was November 2016.
4. As it looks like the period lengths mentioned in points 1, 2 and 3 coincide somewhere late April- beginning of May, thus a rise in the volatility (market correction) is very likely. ( Some call it "sell in May and go away")
Best,
CH
Cyclical SymmetryHello traders
This is my symmetrical projection on CADCHF
After the news release from BoC we have a further downward leg
in what looks like a cyclical bearish move to previous week lows .
Trade safe, trade well.
BUY APPLE: 2016 @$117 & 2017 @$151 - HISTORICAL MONTHLY ANALYSISApple shows a strong and consistent monthly trend of each bull-bear cycle lasting approximates 2-3 years.
The first bull cycle yielded between 200% and 700% growth, the second much less at 145% growth, and the third we estimate using regressions to be approximately between 67% and 106% (or 67% for the next bull run to $151 and 105% for the 4th bull run to $181).
Looking at apple from this monthly perspective gives me reassurance that the $134-$89 or 33% pull back we just saw was merely a macro cyclical correction (which was actually less severe than the pullback in 2012) rather than a structural bearish re-trend - assuming we go on to make $150+ highs in 2017.
With this assumption/ thought in mind it actually makes sense to buy apple heavily whilst its at such a discount - after-all apple historically has shown steep price extensions that offer few significant (-10%+) pull backs to buy, thus we should realign our attitude to factor in where apple sits in its cycle.
It is often too easy to get caught up in the daily +/1 $2 moves, you sometimes can forget the bigger picture of making the most of a great stock fundamentally, thats trading at 10x p:e.
A key statistical measure that reaffirms the above is Apple's monthly price action and its 120 month Linear regression line which together returns a Pearson's R Coefficient of 0.95, meaning time and price as plotted on the x and y axis for Apple hold an almost perfect linear relationship (Apples data is 95% about the linear regression line).
This means we can extrapolate the price trends for the bull-bear cycles, by simply extending the x axis (time) along the regression line to estimate future prices, to a decent degree of statistical relevance.
If the Peasron's R Coefficient was 0.1 it would mean monthly prices are only 10% about the regression, thus extrapolation of price through time would LIKELY yield very little correlation to the actual future price, based on past prices.
Look out for my fundamental analysis of apple in the coming weeks
