Natural Gas --- ( 2 0 2 1 ) Swing TradeAlas! I am free to post what I want thanks to the help of everyone's contribution thumbs.
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The Natural Gas setup for 2021 is not only fundamentally bullish, it's a technical trader's gassy dream.
Welcome to the G a s i n o.
Macro View
From a macro view we can see that prices are now at the bottom of a historically supportive range. The previous deviations that dipped below this range were due to the bearish sentiment as production was trending up. This is no longer the case. Sentiment has now flipped cautiously bullish as supply/demand balance is expected to remain tight.
Bullish Indicators
First, we can see the weekly MACD is decisively bullish and above the zero line. This confirms momentum is going to likely remain bullish longer term.
Secondly, looking at the Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the indicator below the MACD, we see that Asset Managers and Speculators are more interested in long positions than usual. Should be plenty more next year.
Thirdly, prices are maintaining above the 50 week EMA.
Not to mention the inverse head and shoulders that is under construction. You heard it here first.
The Trade Setup
Now, if we overlay two important contracts for Summer(orange) and Winter(blue), we can start extrapolating potential targets. Current prices for either one are at the bottom of the range. This is what large speculators are looking at. This is where I am going to start accumulating starting with Summer. In addition, I am also buying dips of EQT as producers will benefit from stronger prices over the next couple years.
Looking at the August 2021 contract, prices have broken out of the down trend.
Today, in anticipation of a large swing trade next year, I opened a starting long position on the mini contract (QGQ2021) @ $2.78
I welcome dips and estimate a sell target somewhere well north of $3.00
TBD
Trading is risky, don't do it.
Long EQT and
QGQ2021 +1 @ 2.78
D-AR
Antero Resources Becoming BullishBuying and Selling Antero Resources at resistance and support. The stock price appears to be channeling between the purple lines. In addition, the stock price is moving along the 20ma after a pullback, once the stock price trade outside the upper bollinger band. Purchase between $3 and $3.60. Looking for a $4.50-$6 exit before a reload at the 20ma (in the coming weeks). IMO
The price bottomed at $.70 and ran to +$3 earlier in the year. Consolidated for several weeks and just finished the first leg of the second wave. Taking a look further back, the stock price appears to be making an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Thinking the price could see $8-$10 range heading into winter.
AR - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about AR
We observe a D1, some important points. The details are highlighted above.
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$AR RSI Trending Up - Bullish Unusual Options Activity$AR Antero Resources - Appears to have found a bottom around $9.00 in December. RSI is beginning to trend upward on the daily chart with price still moving relatively sideways. If oil can continue to recover as we move into 2019 I expect AR to bounce back well above $10 within a short period of time. Will monitor for a break above ~$9.90 resistance before entering. See chart for a couple medium term targets.
Additionally, there has been some bullish options activity today with over 38k Jan'2020 $15.00 strike (OTM lotto < $1) call options traded vs an OI under 200 for a total premium of $3M.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
LONG if support line holds - bullish divergence - undervaluedMcap: 7.7mil (undervalued)
Final Results for the year-ended 30 November 2017:
Total revenue of US$7,263,048 reflecting an unrealised profit on the revaluation of portfolio companies of US$6,083,225
Net increase in fair value of portfolio companies due to appreciation in shares of Lucyd Ltd (US$5,833,392) and Belluscura plc (US$249,832)
Cash balance of US$1,797,729 (2016:US$1,839,603) with liabilities of US$238,149 (2016: US$484,825) and no debt
Net assets at year end: US$10,675,961 (2016: US$3,137,074)
-- Salarius ltd, which holds the patent for micro-salt (uSalt(TM)), manufactured its first patented micro-salt samples and had them independently tested for both flavour and sodium content with a leading brand of potato chips (crisps). Results indicated that Salarius salted crisps have all the flavour and roughly half of the sodium of traditional crisps. We view this as a significant breakthrough for producing healthier snacks. According to Grand View Research, the global healthy snack market is expected to reach US$32.8b by 2025. Salarius is both continuing to seek an out license for its patented product while exploring the potential launch of a healthier snack food brand
-- Established Guident ltd, a new portfolio company that acquired and seeks to commercialise a patented technology that enables the development of software apps for controlling autonomous vehicles. According to Research and Markets, the global autonomous vehicles market revenue is expected to reach US$126.8b by 2027
-- Established eSoma ltd, a new portfolio company that acquired and seeks to commercialise a patent pending software called Trace-it (TM) for improving the accuracy of gesture recognition on any device. The global gesture recognition market is expected to exceed US$12.7b by 2020 according to Industry Analysts Inc.
-- Smart Food Tek Limited is continuing to seek a licensee for its Crackle-baked(R) technology.
Post-period end highlights
-- Lucyd pte ltd announced it has received approximately US$6.1m in contributions from its blockchain token generation event (TGE). Lucyd pte ltd is a subsidiary of Lucyd ltd, a Group portfolio company, of which it owns 100%. Proceeds of the TGE will be used to develop ergonomic smartglasses and for operational expenses.
-- Belluscura plc concluded a private placement of approximately US$1.33m and converted loans equal to approximately US$268k to equity under the same terms as the private placement.
AR: adding to my positionThis is a follow up on my Jan. post (see link below) . Notice the recent rise in the daily chart exceeded the previous high and so far the current low is still above the previous low ( No NL = No new low). Have a nice bullish diverg. in the weekly RSI. Have (so far) a potential positive reversal in the daily RSI. Process your way. Have a great weekend.