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Combined US Indexes bounce!Just noted that the combined equity index chart showed an interesting bullish setup. The downtrend has been a little stronger than (probably) warranted, and now a sign is showing a probably bounce off a support level. Support broke and the next day rebounded to recover. This formed the bullish Piercing Line Pattern and it reclaimed the support that was broken only the previous day. Technical indicators are showing bullish divergence in alignment as well (green arrows). Looks like time for a rebound. What happens next depends on how robust this bounce is, and if it forms a higher low, or just reverses to breakdown further again. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Auguraltrader
✅ Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY OCTOBER 6, 2023Key events: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Sep) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) USA - Unemployment Rate (Sep) US stocks faced a minor setback on Thursday, recovering from earlier session lows, as investors awaited the monthly jobs report to gain insights into potential future interest rate trends. The S&P 500 managed to maintain its position above the 200-day moving average, currently hovering around 4,206. Although bond selling remained subdued on Friday, it may be short-lived. Tokyo's Nikkei index remained relatively stable, and currency markets followed suit, despite the persistent bond selloff's impact on the dollar. During the Asian session, ten-year US Treasury yields remained unchanged at 4.72%. However, this comes after a five-week period of significant selloff in the bond markets, causing fluctuations in risk appetite among investors worldwide. US10Y treasury yields daily chart San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly stated during an address at the Economic Club of New York that US monetary policy has shifted into a "restrictive" phase. Given the recent uptick in US Treasury yields, she suggested that there may not be a necessity for further interest rate hikes. Investors are eagerly anticipating the commencement of third-quarter earnings reports later this month. S&P 500 companies are expected to reveal a 1.6% year-over-year increase in earnings for the quarter. In terms of market performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by 9.98 points, or 0.03%, while the S&P 500 experienced a 5.56-point decline, equivalent to 0.13%. The Nasdaq Composite also recorded a drop of 16.18 points, or 0.12%. NASDAQ Index daily chart S&P500 Index daily chart DJI Index daily chart Tesla, under the leadership of Elon Musk, has garnered attention by reducing the prices of its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in the United States. The price cuts range from approximately 2.7% to 4.2%, as indicated on the company's website. This decision comes on the heels of a similar price reduction for its premium Model S and Model X cars, which occurred just a month ago. Tesla's aggressive approach to price reductions in 2023 is a strategic move to address the challenges posed by a decelerating electric vehicle (EV) market and the escalating competition from both newcomers and established players. Notably, the standard Model 3 has witnessed a price decrease of approximately 17% since the beginning of the year, while the long-range variant of the Model Y experienced a reduction exceeding 26%. Tesla stock daily chart These price adjustments coincide with Tesla's plans to introduce a refreshed standard version of the Model 3 in the fourth quarter, which will come at a higher price point. The company recently reported third-quarter delivery figures that fell below expectations. This shortfall was attributed to production halts related to planned factory upgrades necessary for the new Model 3 version. Despite this, the US labor market continues to demonstrate resilience, contributing to overall economic demand. This has raised the possibility of the Federal Reserve implementing further interest rate hikes before the year concludes. While many economists believe that the Fed has completed its rate hikes, it is expected to maintain a tight monetary policy for an extended period. The Labor Department's employment report for September, highly anticipated by investors, is likely to reveal a moderate slowdown in job growth. However, it is also expected to show a decline in the unemployment rate from its recent high. Wage gains are anticipated to remain elevated, underscoring the ongoing strength of the labor market. Some economists even suggest that the payroll numbers may surpass expectations. They point to a decrease in first-time unemployment benefit applications in September and a more favorable seasonal adjustment factor as indicators of a potentially robust report. Despite market fluctuations, the US labor market continues to be a driving force in sustaining the economy. Third-quarter growth estimates have reached as high as a 4.9% annualized pace, well above the level that the Fed considers non-inflationary. While the prospect of another round of bond selling could extend the dollar's winning streak, especially against the euro, the yen has displayed some resilience amid speculation of potential intervention by monetary authorities. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The dollar index has recorded 12 consecutive weeks of gains, maintaining its strength. During this period, the euro has remained near an 11-month low, while the British pound has hovered close to a seven-month low. Despite a sudden yen jump during London trading hours earlier in the week, Japanese authorities have denied intervening in currency markets. This has left traders cautious and uncertain about the potential for further market interventions or currency fluctuations. USD/JPY daily chart The yen is currently stable, trading at 148.5 per dollar. Gold, on the other hand, has experienced nine consecutive days of losses due to rising bond yields but is currently holding steady at $1,820 per ounce. XAU/USD daily chart
by FOREXN1
5
DOW JONES Channel Up Double Bottom. Solid buy entry either way.Dow Jones (DJI) is rising following a vastly oversold 1D RSI reading (reached even 23.60) at the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up. Based on the RSI pattern itself, we can draw comparisons with the December 2022 - March 2023 correction. According to that the 1D RSI has one more Low to make before it bottoms and that bottom will be leg (e). This will justify the emergence of a diverging Channel Up (dotted), where leg (e) will be its Higher Low while also completing a symmetrical -9.30% decline from the top. Still, the price has dipped well below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was March's bottom formation, thus either entry is equally probable. As a result it is best to buy on both levels so that a low risk indeed opportunity won't be missed. Our target is 35000, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level as well as Resistance 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
6
Do Stocks Now Pump Again?Traders, With the dollar and VIX down, there are no surprises with our SPY chart showing a nice big green candle on the daily. The question remains though, will we stay in my channel and above the 200-day sma or will we continue to proceed down to the H&S target of 410? My best guess is that we'll remain in our channel. As postulated previously, the 200-day SMA along with the bottom of my channel may be all the support that is needed to guide us onward and upward. This along with more than 11 straight weeks of DXY strength (time for a break) means that the beginning of Uptober could start today. And look at that RSI helping us out as well! Wave #5 is still well intact. Best, Stew
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
The Dow DilemmaWe are at a crossroads. As if we have nothing to invest in. Gold is, in absolute terms, highly overpriced. Gold is more than 50% above the 24 year average. And highly diverging... It still is the massive elephant in the room. Yield rates are the small rat in the room. Due to fast rate hikes, the bond market has suffered incalculable losses. Gold (elephant), just like many people, are afraid of rats (and yield rates). Current consensus is that yield rates are to grow forever, pushing dollar in all-time highs. But consensus cannot take us far... Dollar is showing signs of weakness. The rate hike party may not last long... And equities are still problematic. With massive amounts of money printed in the last 3 years, surely the problems are yet to come. In the main title I talked about a dilemma. DJI divided by Money Supply is warning us. But who is listening? Everyone seems to have disappeared. I am walking around with a lantern in my hand, looking for people, just like Diogenes the Cynic did. This is the micro view. Let's see at the macro view. DJI is joking to us. Short-term it shows clear weakness signals. Long-term it shows the most bullish of signals. My opinion? I expect short-term problems in the equity market. But the problems that may come could be smaller than anyone expects. A relentless equity bubble may form, trapping investors who brace for a downwards impact. In the end, things are not as simple as we may think... And all we are left with is a dilemma. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
DOW JONES Bottom formation buy only on the short term.Dow Jones is priting a bottom on the newly emerged Channel Down which calls for a short term buy. The same kind of formation was witnessed in middle March on the long term bottom pricing when the (recently broken) Channel Up started. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 34400 (MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is on the 30.00 oversold support. Same as on March 13th. An additional buy indicator. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
3
SPX | Don't fall for the trap...SPX is plowing through higher highs. It is a runaway train. Have you entered that train yet? You better enter it because SPX will soar! But runaway trains have the fate of collapsing in on themselves. Their weight is too much for the foundation to sustain. Not all is SPX. VIX is also attempting to measure the risk involved in SPX. And VIX is as bullish as it gets. But not all is VIX. It is important to analyze the volatility of volatility. We are really entering inception levels here. Volatility is too low and too stable . It is as if it is pressured to make all-time-lows. With such a low VVIX reading, we can conclude that VIX is having no second thought on dropping even further. Curiously, the VVIX/VIX ratio is a neat SPX tracker. I have posted about it ages ago. So what can we conclude about volatility? Historically, similar volatility traps have lead to severe crashes in the stock market. Will this time be any different? So what is in for the future? Perhaps an all-time high for SPX will come first. It is not that far... Then, perhaps some SPX divergence against VVIX/VIX. SPX to move higher with VVIX/VIX moving lower. And then darkness. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
V
by akikostas
11
Make Exxon Great Again. As Here's A Hundred Fold OpportunityElectric vehicles are growing so fast that Exxon Mobil is preparing for a future when "customers don’t need that gasoline". Exxon Mobil Corp., which operates one of the world’s biggest oil-refining networks, is trying to be more responsive to changing consumer demands as the energy transition gathers pace. The changes it’s considering include potentially replacing some gasoline production with chemicals. The oil giant has long pursued a strategy of upgrading refineries to expand production and make higher-value products from crude oil such as lubricants and plastic feedstock. But it now sees those projects potentially helping the company to move away from traditional fuels, demand for which is likely to wane in coming decades. The strategy, discussed in August 2023 by executives at a presentation to investors and media, shows how even Exxon, one of the leading proponents of fossil fuels, is being forced to reckon with a future in which electric vehicles significantly eat into gasoline consumption. Exxon has already reduced production of fuel oil and high-sulfur petroleum at refineries in Singapore and the UK. Over time, it’s open to cutting output of gasoline, the focus of the company’s refining business since Henry Ford introduced the Model T nearly 100 years ago. The goal is to produce more chemicals, found in everything from paint to plastic, for which there are few low-carbon alternatives. "We’re planning on modifying some of that yield from gasoline to distillate and chemicals feed," Jack Williams, Exxon senior vice president, said earlier this year at the company’s office in Spring, Texas. "We’ve got projects that we know we would do to take those steps." Exxon gets most of its earnings from oil and natural gas production but refining has always been in its corporate DNA, right back to its original incarnation as part of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil, which was established in the 19th century. Refining allows Exxon to earn money right along the fossil fuel supply chain, from the wellhead to the gas tank. But with traditional fuels such as gasoline under threat from EVs, refineries worldwide are being forced to adapt quickly. Some European plants shut down during the pandemic, while others in the US switched to biodiesel. Exxon wants to take a more nuanced approach by upgrading facilities to switch in and out of products depending on demand. To give an example, an Exxon refinery in Singapore used to produce fuel oil that sold for $10 per barrel below the price of Brent crude, but after a recent upgrade, the facility produces lubricant base stocks that sell for $50 above Brent. Exxon has upgraded and added to its refineries at Fawley in the UK and Beaumont in Texas to produce more diesel, which is used for heavy-duty transportation and is less vulnerable to competition from electric vehicles. "You just have more variables now due to the energy transition," said Jay Saunders, a natural resources fund managers at Jennison Associates, which has $186 billion under management. "Having a high-quality refining asset with flexibility will be very important." Exxon’s refining and chemicals footprint is at least double that of its Big Oil competitors, potentially making it more vulnerable to a speedy energy transition, and especially the growth of electric vehicles. But executives believe the potential for reconfigurations is far greater than that of its peers, providing an opportunity to profit in a low-carbon future. "This really allows us to pivot as demand evolves," said Karen McKee, President of Exxon’s Product Solutions division. Biodiesel is particularly attractive to Exxon because reconfiguring its existing refineries costs about half as much as building a new plant, said Neil Hansen, senior vice president of product solutions. Demand for biodiesel, which is manufactured from vegetable oil or recycled restaurant grease, is expected to quadruple to 9 million barrels a day by 2050, he said. Exxon is halfway through an eight-year plan to overhaul its fuels and chemicals division, which also involves cutting costs, improving operational performance and selling assets that don’t make the grade. Exxon will operate just 13 refineries worldwide by the end of 2023 after selling five in the past four years to focus on the biggest and lowest-cost operations. Chemicals will be key to the strategy’s success. Exxon sees demand growth for its high-performance chemicals at about 7% a year, contrasting sharply with gasoline, which is expected to peak globally by the end of the decade. To keep up with this demand, Exxon plans to build a new dedicated chemical plant every four to seven years, Williams said. The company’s refineries provide an additional means to make chemicals, but they will focus on responding to consumer preference rather than making a big bet on any particular product, Williams said. "We’re not going to do it while the demand is still there," he said. "We’re going to it at a time when the demand trends are clear and customers don’t need that gasoline." At the same time technical picture in Exxon stocks (dividends adjusted) illustrates Exxon got a huge support of 30-years SMA, and right here is a key Multiyear breakout. Further a hundred fold growth is right there to come. Make Exxon Great Again. #MEGA
NYSE:XOMLong
by Pandorra
$DJI @ a support level & oversoldStated a while ago, not sure if we posted here but did elsewhere (see profile), that we had short term Treasury exposure @ 50% but it's 75% atm. (it's a placeholder until trend changes) Should've been shorting the entire time down. TVC:DJI @ support but this area has not been a strong level. However, we are severely oversold so that bounce can be close & it can happen here. Sticking with the idea that large bounces should be sold of shorted until the technical data changes. #stocks AMEX:DIA
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DOW JONES Approaching a critical Support cluster.The Dow Jones index (DJI) has broken below the long-term Higher Lows trend-line and has transitioned into a Channel Down. The current Lower Lows leg is approaching not just the bottom of the Channel Down but more importantly the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The latter in particular provided a Double Support Bounce on (June 01 and May 25) and hasn't been broken since March 29. We are waiting for the first 2-day green 1D candle streak in order to buy and target (at least) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Projected contact at 34450 (target). The 1D RSI has hit the 34.80 Support, which provided the bounce on the August 24 bottom. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
5