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D-DJI

SPX | Waiting For The Miracle To ComeThis year has been very boring... Lot's of horizontal movement, not many interesting news. Well, except of course that "a couple" of banks went bust. But if I didn't tell you that, you couldn't tell where in this chart this occurred... SPX, and the market in general, has been too stubborn despite the importance of the events occurring. On the one hand, this makes sense. This kind of crisis (banking) has come before, so the markets are calm. A crisis comes when nobody expects it to. And by design, a crisis is an unknowing event of unknowing consequences. A bank going bust is not frightening anymore. The market expects the FED to step-in and bail everyone out. But the FED cannot possibly bail anyone out. They cannot print any more money (we might have reached a debt ceiling), and even if they could, they could be unwilling to print more money. Inflation will get worse. So no more money. Dollar has served as the worldwide reserve currency, until now. China amongst other powerful nations, collaborate into creating an alternative reserve currency. One that will be controlled by them, not by a panicking (?) FED. The FED might not be panicking, even if we believe that they are trapped. I believe that they have very good knowledge of what they do, and of the repercussions. Absurdly high interest rates can be a mechanism to increase the dollar purchasing strength. And you need purchasing power when you have enemies (Russia, China etc.) Since 2015, this has worked out tremendously well. The Dollar is making higher highs. Of course, there are many fundamentals (like the Dollar Milkshake) that push the dollar value to new highs. But interest rates are interest-ing (hahaha) to the Dollar. And the Dollar is winning battles against many countries of the world. And with lower money supply, it's value is fated to increase even further. (I like real reality, not augmented reality, that's why I used M2REAL instead of M2SL) The money supply is vacuumed back into the printer which created it. And the power of the vacuum is not big, it is exponential. The Dollar Milkshake Black Hole is now open. But how much can the FED possibly hike? The discrepancy between the FED's rate and the Market's rate is at it's highest level. The FED may not be able to hike any higher against the market's expectance. Who knows what will happen if the FED overcomes this limit... (is it even fundamentally possible?) Inflation is high and it is fated to increase even more. I have posted about it extensively. The preview of this chart idea is broken, oops... Now, oil is looking substantial signs of strength. Oil, the main inflation influencer, is showing significant signs of bottoming. Furthermore, it has retested a trendline that followed us since 2008. Long-term, the only way for Crude is up! And the only way for equities is down! Just to reach the mean, the OIL/SPX ratio has to increase by 75%. So there is much room upwards for commodities... Have you realized what SPX has shaped into? Could this be the anatomy of a bubble? And has it already broken? It seems that the recession is only now just beginning. During normal times for the US economy, equities could grow even as yields were increasing. Now we are entering a period of weakness for the economy. Something has to give, either the equities go bust, or the yield rates. (Equities have much more room to drop than Yields do) A crisis is definitely inching towards us... A final chart for today: Equities used to grow as money was created. Now this chart has immense dynamics to move downwards. In a sense, equities have MUCH room downwards, even if money gets created. This comes to prove that equities cannot absorb any more money supply. Money printing from the FED cannot possibly help equities, no matter what they do, they are trapped inside the bearish wedge. Only way for equities is down! And similarly for SPX Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. What could these charts mean? Are they of any meaning after all? A crisis is definitely itching towards us... I HAVE to test. All the time. Or I get this... this ITCH. It must be hardwired into the system or something. -Wheatley, Portal 2
SP:SPX
by akikostas
47
DOW JONES Channel Down emerging. This is its invalidation.Dow Jones (DJIA) is attempting to re-enter the Channel Down pattern that broke upwards, and on the bottom of which we gave the most efficient buy signal almost 2 months ago: At the moment the index is on the build up of a Channel Down which targets 32600. We will only buy if the price closes above its top (Lower Highs trend-line) and target Resistance 3 at 34900. As far as a long-term buy is concerned, we are only interested in buying if a Bullish Divergence is spotted on the 4H RSI, same as on March 15. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
4
50 years of chop.good morning, --- what if i told you right now, that the stock market was about to enter into a 50 year correction? you'd probably dismiss it right away and go about your day, and that's natural, i get it. --- i'm not here to appease to your overall bias - in fact, i am here to directly oppose it. --- what i'm bringing to you today, is the idea of the completion of the primary third wave in the stock market. >if one looks at the yearly picture, one will notice a bearish divergence between the intermediate 3rd and 5th wave, of the primary degree wave (3). >this is highly indicative that the wave has indeed been completed. --- i am estimating that the 4th wave takes roughly 50 years to complete, and i theorize that it has begun as of the recent top in 2022. the original author of this idea was robert pretcher (the writer of elliott wave theory principle), this idea was initially introduced to me by my mentor, @bitdoctor a few years back. it has lingered in my mind through out the years, it has haunted me every single day as i have been looking for ways to confirm or find a way to invalidate it. as of today, i believe i have the necessary data to prove their original theory to be in fact, true. --- >this doesn't mean that we can't make a new high, in fact that is not what i'm trying to say here at all. >what i'm simply stating here, is that there's an extremely high probability that the stock market is going to move sideways for the next 50 years. >i might even be early a few years here, so please don't use this idea as any kind of financial advice, because quite frankly - it is very far from it. --- the minimum downside target for the macro fourth wave, is the previous degree wave 4 territory, which in this case sits between : $7,000 -12,000. 🍒
TVC:DJI
by notoriousbids
4
SPX | Of Course I'm Lying (?)I am not lying. I am completely disproving my latest idea, on how to short SPX. That idea went on Editors' Picks. And I am now killing it. I am not kidding, April Fools is for fools. I don't consider me or you a fool. So I am being serious. Chart analysis is not always straightforward. Pinpointing tops and bottoms is the ultimate bet for a trader. As most of you know, this is very hard sometimes. In 99% of a chart's movement, the trend is continuing. A significant trend change is very rare. Significant evidence for a trend reversal are VERY RARE, and not apparent in all timeframes. This is a chart that shows clear evidence of reversals. On the weekly timeframe, SPX analysis has showed significant evidence of peaks and bottoms. Believe it or not, SPX and NDX are showing evidence of going long. But what about long-term? Now THAT is a hard conversation. KST (and many other indicators) can show us incredibly early signs of price stagnation. Signs of stagnation in long-term charts however, can take DECADES to play out. SPX/M2SL Technicals were peaking in 1957, but the peak in SPX prices came 6 years later. For the standard SPX chart, things took even longer to play out. It is as if we are in 1957. And there is more evidence towards such a realization. What I did here was basically compare the .com bubble with the Roaring '20s. The .com bubble was just a very-fast version of the Roaring '20s. If we slow down NDX a little, we end up with the following: The effect of bubbles is apparent in different periods, and in different scales. The same laws that shaped the 1950-1980 price movement, may be dictating the movement of today's stock market. The Roaring '20s still has an effect on our moves. We may be living inside the reality-distortion field of the .com bubble. KST Peaking is an EXTREMELY early sign of stagnation. Price continues upwards, albeit at a slower rate. Now as we speak, KST reaches this exact point of peaking. This has proved an extremely early sign of stagnation. Will this time be different, and instead KST is showing an immediate sign, an abrupt crash? Perhaps things are too simple after all. Long Live the US! P.S. Remember, the stock market is for the patient ones, those who plan for decades ahead. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPXLong
by akikostas
13
SPX | Another LieOrdinarily, I wouldn't contemplate them... but these *are* extraordinary times. - G-Man A bank just went broke, oops! It was certainly something we expected. With money literally burning, these kinds of events are expected. So what might be ahead of us? The rate-hike schedule went relatively smooth sailing until now. But just last week something changed... When the first bank failed, the consensus shifted from calm to fearful. Now the market is pricing-in the coming yield-peak. This goes hand-in-hand with the yield-curve correcting. At that time, the market expects only short-term yields to increase, while long-term ones will slowly and steadily drop. Back in 2018, we were begging for the FED to lower the interest rates so as the economy to "grow". Little did we know, that by lowering rates we were pulling the rug from underneath our own feet. Equities growing when cutting rates is cheaty... Now we have the same. We beg for the FED to stop burning money and calm the liquidity crisis that is building-up around us. This bankruptcy may prove an event that causes even a premature FED pivot. At any rate, both charts and simple logic call for a pause in the rate-hike schedule. So what can we expect? What I talked about in the original cake. Unsurprisingly, I expect equities to grow next year. Their price will increase while their true "value" will drop. While a sell-off may occur in the weeks to come, this will give the signal that the bottom is in. I believe however that this capitulation will not be the main "event". The 2018 "Recession" had some violent drops. A sudden 20% drop in 3 months in Q4-2018 was definitely something that conquered the headlines. Passing through that gave the signal that a bottom was already in. The same consensus may be brewing now. Surely the FED cannot tighten further. Surely they will step-in an cautiously calm the financial markets. The calm will come, and it will stay for some months. Until the calm erodes. And if rates drop, the economy itself will silently erode. Until the building collapses, at a time nobody expects it to. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. There are two ways to become rich. Theft and Inheritance. -Aristotle Onassis, Billionaire For the rich to get richer, they must rob. They are robbing the unknowing gamblers/investors. In the era of information, in order to rob you must fool the public by changing-up the picture. Present the eroding building (economy aka. SPX*yields) with a luxurious cover (SPX). And hide the treasure in the dirtiest place of all. Find the treasure. Don't fall for the trap.
SP:SPX
by akikostas
6
DOW JONES The MA100 (1d) is supportingDow Jones has been closing daily over the MA100 (1d) for the past month. It is making Higher Highs since the March 20th bottom, indicating that the trend remains bullish. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the price holds Support (1). 2. Sell if it breaks under it. Targets: 1. 34500 (Resistance 1 and Rising Resistance). 2. 32800 (MA200 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) has been rejected on its MA level and is making Lower Highs. That shows a Bearish Divergence that may eventually favour a Support (1) break. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
5
The Taiwan BRICS War Leading To The Biggest Meltup In History Can we not see what's happened over the last days? the exact repeat of 2009 instead of QE straight away the FED has resorted to using terms like "BTFP program" and offering zero percent loans to the bigger banks to bailout the smaller banks. I thought the FRED would have allowed the banks to go down for a market reset "what everyone is expecting" but the response is if the trend line breaks the entire US bond market breaks + the global financial system is in meltdown meaning the FRED and the US Government won't and cannot allow it to happen, oh and the Treasury is almost broke defaulting meaning QE will be turned on within the next months or a "BTFP treasury program". Lets look at the facts that's got me worried US dollar dominance will collapse due to QE needed to fund the US government and bailout markets to generate GDP growth Since 2009 Expenditure on the military in China has gone parabolic from 96 Billion to 293 Billion in 2021 - China also purchases mass gold with Russia (what the hell are they preparing for or doing?) In 1919 the USA was the top military spending by country In 1920 the Russian Empire upped military spending passing the USA In 1922 the Soviet Union was formed spawning the rise of the German dictatorship What does this mean? it means the Soviet Union is repeating with BRICS and I'm sure the USA is aware of that. All BRICS nations are printing money like crazy funding gold / military purchases like they are about to disregard the FIAT system. USA has one option and one option only to defend the global dollar. Start a counter offense on completely taking Taiwan controlling the entire semiconductor market limiting BRICS economically, and handing over the technology keys to the USA meaning they can set the rules and prices and force demand back onto the USD system. If this outcome comes to reality, we will see money printing in the USA disguised flooded into defense and a full NATO move surrounding Taiwan. Followed by this will be stocks rising + inflation heading up + rates heading lower - - The goal of this is to devalue the currency and use WAR to take economic assets by force from BRICS causing the wealth to be returned back. This should answer your question on why the Ukraine War? Why the Red Balloons? both NATO / US + BRICS are using these as a testing ground to predict retaliations for the main goal Taiwan. If the US / NATO wanted this war to be over in a day it would be. If China / Russia wanted this war to be over in a day it would be nobody ask why its not. Translation lets steal Trillions from the public and spend 10 billion in Ukraine while storing the rest for R&D for the real event.
AMEX:SPY
by FederalXBT
DOW JONES Small pull-back possible but bullish long-termOne and a half month ago we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down: Right now the index is trading inside a shorter term Channel Up that is technically aiming at the 34900 Resistance, which is the December 13 2022 High, as part of its Higher Highs process. If however the 4H MACD currently completes a Bearish Cross, it is more likely to see one last pull-back below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (33600) before the next rally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
4
SPX | The US is FailingEurope and especially Germany (the biggest power in Europe) have suffered this year due to the energy crisis. There is more background though... The US has performed well until now. This period of US dominance is failing. The chart above is respecting a long-term trend. Now, price is at the bottom with stochastics primed for continuation of the uptrend for Germany. To effectively compare Europe and USA we need to "fix" the indices of each country. Currency strength should get out of the picture for us to better analyze equity performance between countries. So, the DEU40 Index of Germany is multiplied by EURUSD, to get it denominated in Euro. This should always be done when comparing items of different origin (different currency). As an example, for reference I will also analyze Turkey. It is as if Turkey is performing incredibly... The General Index XU100 has gone exponential. If we plug in the currency, the picture changes. There are more evidence against the US... Turkey is set to overperform the US in the years to come... Many countries follow Turkey's example: Honestly, the most dramatic of them all is China. A substantial diversion from it's trend, with a massive double bottom shaping. Will price seek the trend? Is it a new beginning for China, or the beginning of the end? Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:DEU40
by akikostas
14
DJI - Falling Trend Channel [MID TERM]- DJI is in a falling trend channel in the medium long term. - This signals increasing pessimism among investors and indicates further decline for Dow Jones Industrial Average. - DJI is testing resistance at points 34100. - This could give a negative reaction, but an upward breakthrough of points 34100 means a positive signal. - DJI is assessed as technically negative for the medium long term. *EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, RTS: Resistance to be Support LT TP: Long Term Target Price *Chart Pattern: DT - Double Top | BEARISH | RED DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | GREEN HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | RED REC - Rectangle | BLUE iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | GREEN Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
TVC:DJILong
by wavepoint99
M2SL | Mo Money Mo Problems!Oh boy, many of them problems... Sometimes there are cycles, some cycles are shorter than others. In chart analysis, we are familiar when we analyze trends. Either short term or long term. The economy does not function only in trends. There are cycles. The most common / important of cycles is the yearly one. Unfortunately, cyclic patterns may prove tricky to analyze. But they are very important. Since I haven't taken the time to create TradingView indicators that calculate cycles, I will instead use a spreadsheet. For the following charts, I basically take all historical data of a cyclic chart and export that data. For every week or month, I calculate the average distance from the mean. With that, I try to calculate the "expected distance" from the mean, for each time of the year. Natural Gas prices one might say, are lower during the summer months. So an unusually high price in summer may become explosive during the winter. Today's main subject will be money supply. Since the January's M2SL data hasn't yet updated, I will try to guess how much money supply we can expect the following months. There is a cousin to the M2SL index which is updated weekly, and it is WM2NS. This index however as you can see on the chart above fluctuates from M2SL throughout the year. So, the regular WM2NS price should be adjusted based on it's cycle against M2SL. This curve shows the expected yearly fluctuation of the ratio, compared to the mean, Specific care has to be taken when we calculate the "fundamental cycle duration". Some cycles last 2 months, 3 months, or 6 months. The fundamental cycle of the economy is 3 months which repeats 4 times during the year. While this may prove irrelevant, It is incredibly important in the "cycle spectrum" creation. If we consider a 1M duration of the fundamental cycle, the chart isn't as representative as the 2M one. The Diesel / Gasoline cycle is incredible. This comes to prove that these two are highly correlated. With the same method we can compare gasoline price with crude oil price. For fuel prices, it seems that the end of the year can serve as a good baseline for the outcome of the next year. Absolute and relative are at their minimum in this time of year. Similar charts can be drawn for DJI. While more chaotic (wider error lines), weeks 10 and 44 (March and October-November) appear as the weakest periods of the year. So what M2SL price can we expect in the following days? I am an impatient man, I cannot wait for the results!!! After a substantial drop in money supply, one might fear that further downside is to follow. There are charts that calm such fears. Price has never touched the Quadratic Kernel indicator (a form of historic moving-average), and it may never touch it. When RRPONTTLD increases, money supply decreases (I am oversimplifying because I don't know the exact specifics). Bullish stochastics may signal more upside for money supply. Finally, I will analyze the protagonist chart: Suddenly, the 1.2% increaase doesn't sound that extraordinary... Sometimes, a simplistic analysis like this one above, may prove correct like this one below: Final thought: With inflation higher than expected and money supply about to increase yet again, how high of an inflation can we expect? With commodities bull-flagging against money supply itself, and Bitcoin bull-flagging against the Tech-Bubble, things can get pretty bad for equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I have analyzed several cycles for different kinds of commodities. If you are interested ask me so as to post them.
FRED:WM2NS
by akikostas
9
SPX | We are not out of the woods yetEverywhere good news, inflation is dropping, the FED is about to pivot. Energy is dropping and every single technical indicator is telling us that we are in a "perfect bottom". Many argue that we are in a similar situation to 2015, at least the price action of the main indices. So let's discuss some arguments and figure this out. First and foremost, price action. Price action and indicators are ultra-bullish One of the "bullish" indicators is the well-known Stochastic RSI. Stochastic RSI analyses RSI. The 1M and 2M oscillators are at a bottom. So we expect a swing upwards. I have circled the RSI in two separate times, in 2015 and now. RSI has to go through both the 50 mark, and it's WMA. There is significant resistance above. There is more... On the peak of the stochastic on 1W, the difference is night and day. In 2015 we had already easily skipped an "uninverted ribbon", while now we are into significant resistance. This week we had outright rejection. This tells us that the 1M oscillator will have much trouble swinging upwards, since the 1W oscillator is at it's peak and price rejected on resistance. A successful swing should be verified by many oscillators. If you look at the 12M chart, you will understand. 2000: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance). 2015: Stochastic is roaming upwards, RSI above WMA (support). 2022: Stochastic begins a move downwards, RSI below WMA (resistance). DJI is super strong, and above the cloud and ribbon Yes it is. But for the last 20 years, DJI stood high in periods of recession. The only exception is the "Trump run era" I made up. When Trump became president, he did made all sorts of "gifts" to blue chips. A comparison between DJI/M2SL and SPX/M2SL in the same period. Right now, DJI is hanging on, amidst a painful recession for most equities. Also look at energy. SKEW is inside a falling wedge. Several weeks ago, it reached an all-time-low. Now, 1M and 2M stochastics are ready for prime time. The same holds true for VIX The FED is burning money, at any moment a liquidity crisis can begin. Ever heard of Wyckoff Distribution? It is the most accurate analysis of stock market. It is the most fundamental behavior. Here are some distributions, in wildly different timeframes. All featuring DJI. DJI/SILVER - 100 year distribution DJI*US10Y - 25 year distribution DXY*DJI - 1 year distribution I'm out www.youtube.com Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
82