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D-DJI

The QE(xperience)Quantitative Easing, a fancy way of describing a bubble, the easy way out. QE Alpha During QE Alpha, speculation lead to a massive bubble, and a painful burst. Technicals: A Fibonacci Retracement shows that price followed closely it's levels. QE Beta During QE Beta, after stabilizing from the Great Depression, and after the end of WW2, economy rose steadily. US being one of the winners of WW2 and with the Marshall Plan deal, had a big advantage compared to the rest of the world. Technicals: The 1.618 retracement proves a significant resistance from above, which behaved as the ceiling for the Great Stagflation period of 1960s. Price reached an indecision where price couldn't penetrate the 1.618 retracement, but didn't want to fall below the 1929 high. A golden bull-flag was created, which escaped to the upside in 1982. QE 1.0 After severe stagflation, a new era of progressively lower yields led to the creation of the mechanism for QE1. It's fuel ended in 2000, and for a decade, the economy had big trouble going forward. It wasn't until the GFC when the foundation was set for the birth of QE2. Technicals: We have reached the 3rd harmonic and this proves big resistance for price. During this time, a harmonic bull-flag shaped. QE 2.0 The QExperience, which until now was unknown and unnamed, had now a name. And we have lived with it until 2021. Derivatives came about and inflated what is left to inflate. Since day 1 of 2022 we are outside it's trend. Technicals: Retracements drawn using the Great Depression peaks/bottoms constitute significant support/resistance levels. Conclusion: This SPX modificator makes historical analysis of SPX more mathematically accurate and clearer to see/analyze. A new era of increasing yields leads to multiplicative problems in the QE machine. Welcome to the QT era. We are already in it, for the past year, we hope you enjoy your stay! Look at the GFC intervention. The modified SPX chart depends on yields. More about it on this chaotic, full-of-mistakes idea. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
13
Artificial LifeWe live artificially, in a virtual world. We began this experiment when from actual currency we went to fiat. Money printing is not that simple. A debt based economy is fueled not only by money printing but also by money creation. Let's consider this thought experiment: We have three protagonists, Central Bank (CB), Private Bank (PB), and Human (HS) CB decides that she wants to run the economy, and prints $100. She creates the debt as well, so all is good. CB lends that money to PB and demands some profit (Y) which could be the current US10Y. The Private Bank then, to profit off of the loan, lends some money to a human. Let's pretend that the loan the human gets is ($100+Y). On top of that there will be another tariff that will go towards the PB, let's say again Y. From that simplified transaction, the PB makes more profit than the loan, because she lended some funds from their reserves. So the PB will earn from the human 100+Y*(100+Y) and will pay back to the CB 100+Y. Now remember, the only money in existence is the $100 that the CB made. So technically, nobody can fully pay out their obligation. Everyone is in debt and technically everyone is bankrupt from Day 1. To cover the increasing needs of humans for loans, the PB needs more money, and so lends from the CB. The second time around, the PB borrows $100+y So what the CB does is print some more money, every day we pay out our old obligations and we create more. That story you might already know. I added it because I wanted to make some calculations on it. For us to make sense of it all, we try to find out how many obligations were created from thin air. Scenario 1 If everyone is paid off, including the CB, the extra obligations are y^2+2*y. Now let's consider the percentage we gained from all of this. From a single "y" obligation, we created y^2+2*y obligations. Therefore the rate of change is (final value - initial value)/(initial value). Rate of Change = ROC = y+1 And if we plot SPX/ROC = SPX/(US10Y+1) Scenario 2 Everyone is paid off, except the Central Bank. While this might not be 100% feasible, I believe that it ends up describing much clearer today's life. Now the extra obligations (extra money) in circulation are y^2+2*y+1 And the rate of change from the single "y" obligation is: ROC = y+1+1/y And this is the plot we are witnessing now. (SPX/ROC) Conclusion @SPY_Master invented this chart SPX/(1/US10Y), linked below. Which is basically a ROC of 1/y. So the new ROC comes to fulfill the one before it, and give it a more "mathematically accurate" representation. Where does this leave us? This chart stopped on the 4th retracement. RSI is looking something more beyond precarious. It is fearful. This is another chart on how price moved the last 20 years. I will comment later on some more charts. For now, I will let the indicators speak of themselves. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
8
Weapons of Mass Destruction"Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction" - Warren Buffett This chart calculates the gaps we have left behind. All because of massive interday futures trading. A while ago, we didn't have that many derivatives. Interday trading had very little effect. In an overleveraged economy, just how much of current prices are based on actual growth? Indices are hitting new highs, getting inflated from more and more derivative trading and leverage. Just how much of what we see is a bubble? Judging by this chart, we should go back to pre-2015 levels... Trade lightly , for this is hallowed ground. - Wall Street Grigori
DJ:DJI
by akikostas
7
Markets want their equities back.The market is longing equities, they miss them so much... Perhaps there are traders out there who actually long equities right now. And maybe they have their reasons... Yields are showing the first signs of exhaustion. Their chart by itself confirms it. In the main chart above, we see support from the 200EMA (from 2M chart like before) RSI went oversold (penetrated it's ATR channel to the downside) and is now back inside it. This is bullish. This year stochastics were absolutely glued together, it doesn't get any tighter. Now they are ready for an upwards swing. But wait. Not all is good. The "true" SPX chart (SPX*US10Y) is showing it's first signs of weakness. So we have reached the point of "diminishing returns". Any increase in equities is not providing wealth. Like before, RSI, Stochastics and KC don't help. SPX is showing signs of strength for the following months. While I expect a degree of weakness in equities, not all hope is lost. In the meantime, I expect horizontal movement for equities, and some probable growth. Beware, for the cake is still a lie. A couple of extra charts: The chart I added above, the point we missed the trendline was in December 2018. In December of 2018 was the time when Put/Call ratio and VIX took separate ways. And what did equities do after this point in time? PS. With all that conspiracy, I wander why I don't wear a tinfoil hat... yet. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. - Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
1
DOW Headed up to 37 -> 40kQuick post - Daily 50/200 EMA shows a golden cross, W pattern / double-bottom breakout re-tests have succeeded in staying above the upper trend-line. It also continues bouncing off the 50 EMA. We may find some resistance in the area of the red box. TP 1 is ~37.8k, TP is ~40.2k, expecting a pit stop around 35k in the resistance area as it makes its way towards suggested targets. DXY finds new troughs in correlation with DJI finding new peaks. Our recent lows on DJI correspond to DXY's recent peak. DXY has fallen back to the area where it broke out, suggesting a recovery. Should it remain below 102-103, that recovery could be extended. If it gets and stays well above 103 again, this recovery will be short lived. If DXY turns up above 103 and becomes bullish again, we could see a double-top instead of reaching targets above previous ATH.
TVC:DJILong
by dudebruhwhoa
1
US30 20th JANUARY 2023Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell nearly 2% in Wednesday's overnight market, which was the biggest daily drop for both indices in a month. The decline came after weak economic data was released overnight, reigniting fears of a recession. In addition, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials also further worsened the fundamental mood of investors. Before the wall street stock market opened, US economic data for December showed that retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) data fell more than expected, while production at US factories also fell and total output in November was weaker than expected.
OANDA:US30USD
by DNP-FX
2
SPX. The Certainty Trap ‘Never’ &‘always’ have no place in MKTS!Just passing this cool info written by a guy called Ben Carlson. - Ben discusses the differences between probability and certainty: "There are two arguments I see on a regular basis that show up as a result of data overload: …because that’s never happened before. …because that’s what’s always happened before. -The problem with this line of thinking is that it can lead investors to fall into what I like to call the certainty trap. It’s this all-or-nothing line of thinking that causes so many to constantly attach extremes to every single market move or data point they see. The beginning of the recovery or the end of the world is always right around the corner. The assumption is that we’re always either at a top or a bottom when most of the time the markets are probably somewhere in the middle." -The reason the investing certainty trap is so easy to fall for is because historical data can feel so safe and reassuring. Look here, my data says that this has never (always) happened in the past. Surely this trend will continue. I’ll just sit here and wait for my profits to start rolling in. -‘Never’ and ‘always’ have no place in the markets because no one really knows what’s going to happen next. ‘Most of the time’ is a much more reasonable goal, because nothing works forever and always in the markets. If it did everyone would simply invest that way. I think a much more levelheaded approach is to follow the Jason Zweig 10 word investment philosophy: -Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly.
SP:SPXEducation
by samitrading
2
$DJI Inverse Head & Shoulder + Long term data on CrossoversThese are copy paste, pls see our profile IF RIGHT Shoulder, $DJI Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern, holds = STRENGTH 1/2 #DJI RSI WEAKENING, Negative Divergence Last 2 days good SELL volume Some interesting Moving Avg Crossover data on next post 2/2 $DJI Bullish Moving Avg Crossovers TEND to last There's been few times it didn't: Late 99-Early 02 Mid 78-Early 80 June-July 60 July-Sept 56 Feb 47 July 47 Whipsawed 1948 Oct 40-Jan41 Sept 39-Nay 40 Aug 32-Nov 32 You get point #stocks #DJI $DIA $NDX $SPX
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
DOW JONES The High volatility zone continues to pay offThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) followed our previous call (almost) 3 weeks ago to perfection as after trading within the Triangle, it broke to the upside and hit the 34300 target: The strong rejection of this week simply validates the argument that we've made since November, that the blue zone will be a High Volatility region for Dow as it is a confluence of major Support (Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line), Resistance (34300 August 16 High) and MA levels (1D MA300 and 1D MA50 (yellow and blue trend-lines respectively)). It is now testing the (dashed) Higher Lows trend-line, which if successful can make another trip to 34300. But if it doesn't hold, the real medium-term Support Zone is within the former Lower Highs trend-line and (mostly) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has already held once successfully on December 20. A break below targets the 31725 Support (1) first and (on a much less likely scenario) the 30100 Support (2) in extension. But why give away our 1D RSI blue-print and the symmetricality of each bullish - bearish phase that has been holding exceptionally well since the February 24 2022 bottom? As we explained in detail in our previous analysis, each bearish phase has been around 250 (4H) candles i.e. roughly 60 days. Considering that this is not a Bear Cycle bearish leg as it is obviously more sideways than making Lower Lows, we should be seeing an end of this phase by the 2nd week of February, if not earlier. Based on the 1D RSI though, it has already started to form the bottoming process (green rectangle) as shown by the previous sequences. As a result, investors should be more patient with such drops and willing to buy the pull-back at this stage, than looking to short to Lower Lows. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
U
by TradingShot
5
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a pullback buy entry at 33418.59, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32573.43, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34712.28, where the previous swing high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
TVC:DJILong
by VantageMarkets
1
This chart measures pain.Spoiler alert, there is a lot. Inspired by a fellow trader, link to his idea. He is the reason I took the stock market seriously. An easy-to-explain chart. As NoOneWhoIsSomeone explained better, FEDFUNDS increases when an economy is strong. Therefore it can be a modificator for prices. The FED increases the rate when it smells money, and money smells when there is strength, historically... Now the FEDFUNDS race now is for inflation (amongst other conspiracy stuff) Does this chart work??? I don't know... Orange line: It is SPX in log scale. Blue line: I tried to add in the equation the FEDFUNDS rate. The price of SPX is divided by M2SL. This takes out of the equation the money printing. Now we multiply by 10-FEDFUNDS rate. I could do many different calculations but this is good enough for my knowledge. I am no trader, I have even managed to forget physics I did one year ago, so you could't possibly call me a genius. So take this with a grain of salt. What we find out is a new blue line which could be a measure of today's strength of economy. Throughout history, the two lines followed together, with the blue line surpassing the orange. Therefore the "strength" is higher than the SPX reading. In 2008 the lines followed through in exactly the same fashion. Even in 2000, albeit the blue line being slow, they both reached the same bottom. What we see now is the incredible. The economy's strength is already in trash. And for quite some time... It appears that my extreme ideas are not that extreme after all... Go ahead, post some hate comments below, like some did in the idea I linked. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
SP:SPX
by akikostas
2
Falling Dollar Creates Opportunity For Outperformance AMEX:SPY TVC:DXY AMEX:EFA The opportunity presented by a falling dollar: These are simple Yearly Candles. The chart depicts how the falling dollar can provide outperformance in foreign equities vs domestic equities. The top chart is simply a chart of the dollar index. The middle chart is EFA vs SPY. The bottom chart is that of the EFA. Take notice as the dollar weakens - represented in the first chart by red candles - that EFA outperforms SPY as denoted in the second chart by white candles. Since 2002 There have been 9 years in which EFA outperformed the SPY. 7 of the years have been associated with a falling dollar. One of the off years was 2005. The dollar was up, but the overall long term trend was still down. The other off year, was this past year. Even though the dollar was strong it peaked in Q4 and fell precipitately into the new year kickstarting new strength in EFA. The 9 years of outperformance generated positive returns in 7 of those years. The 2 years of negative performance were in 2002 and in 2022. Two of the worst years on record risk assets globally. Those seven years generated returns of: 2003: 38.15% 2004: 17.16% 2005: 11.26% 2006: 23.20% 2007: 7.21% 2012: 14.80% 2017: 21.79% Average Return: 19.08% What is noticeable is how strong the returns can be when the dollar enters a secular decline. 2003 through 2007 was particularly outstanding. During that time the dollar fell by roughly 34%. While there hasn't been a secular decline in the dollar since then, I think it pays to keep an open mind to the possibilities. Funds for the falling dollar: $EFA $VEU $VEA $VXUS
TVC:DXYLong
by Breakout_Charts
3