D-DJI
$VIX close to lower end of rangePre-market we're looking for RED
Sold lil more #stocks after posted we did some selling yesterday (posted elswhere)
Have💵& tons of leverage (only use on occasion)
$NDX should open around yellow line 11270s
$DJI support around 33800s
$VIX clobbered, due for bounce
Have a great trading day!!!
$DXY @ strong support$DXY is @ range we expected, took its sweet time
NOW what?
$VIX @ lower end
#Yield also at low end
$NDX $SPX $DJI $BTC $ETH have had nice runs
#Stocks & some #crypto need breather
Longest Wyckoff Distribution Ever.The history of the new world, reduced to its fundamentals. A simple channel and a few important events, define a Wyckoff Distribution.
This chart is the DNA of the new world. The end of phase four would be the much-advertised-great-reset. The end of the past 120 years, and a beginning of a new era, if it is for the best or for the worst.
I am not very hopeful for the future, but there is hope in the real things. Stay real.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS. 120=7,77*7,77*2
120 is a super-cycle. It is the cycle of the cycle of 7.7 years
An alternate chart.
Still in bearish channel but has a slim chance of breaking out.50/50 Triangle forming (I'm bearish). Not many good things are happening. Our government causes more problem than it fixes, they cause the problem and say there the solution.
Market Update 11/12/23 With Time Stamps0:00 DXY
2:30 APPL
3:36 NASDAQ
5:10 BTCUSD
8:15 DIA DJI
9:05 What I want to see with the DXY
10:35 What I want to see with the VIX
13:00 HSI Hang Seng Index
15:15 GOLD XAU
16:36 MARA
18:40 NVDA
19:12 DKNG
19:34 PYPL
19:52 Closing/Good bye
Just an update from yesterday. Most things seem to be going as expected during this new year.
I still expect the DXY to drop to 98.3 or 99.6 before trying to make a good move upwards and possibly bringing the market down, but I am still looking for a potential reversal at 12.324. We are currently under this target and that is why I say reversal. In my mind and at the moment, the odds of the DXY continuing further down are 70/30.
Peak Equities?Happy Dump Year! What a shocking year... equities dropping, bond market failing and energy skyrocketing. Almost a perfect storm ain't it?
But something ain't right... Have we passed the dump year or are we just started? Which number will we be talking about in the future, 22 or 23?
And another question... have equities peaked?
For the past year, bonds have been outperforming equities.
But equities have been holding relatively strong despite the monumental increase in yields.
Now we might have reached the point of diminishing returns.
Every move we make is beginning to turn up against us.
The similarity to the Great Depression is stunning.
Stochastics don't help the situation much. Even if a total crash does not occur, the product looks fated to move horizontally.
The cover chart pinpoints us on a fib retracement, with much resistance above. The drawn levels were respected throughout the last 15 years.
Other equity comparisons follow suit...
The charts above attempt to objectively calculate the price of equities compared to the cost of money.
This chart below attempts to calculate the excess performance SPX has, compared to the performance of an investment in bonds. It is further modified by PPIACO, the producer price cost.
Printed on the chart are some beautiful bull flags, and some very historically-important retracements. Equities will have much trouble gaining traction compared to bonds.
This year, the relative performance of equities compared to bonds, showed a 60% drop.
So 2022 was definitely a Dump Year. This is massive of a figure for the equity market, measured as relative performance. Also the bond market has suffered a lot this year.
If equities have already sustained a massive hit compared to bonds, who will be the next to take the dive? Since their product (their cumulative profit) has just now showed signs of stagnation.
Will equities drop again or bonds, or both? It smells like 2023 will have some sort of dump...
An analysis of equity mutual funds compared to bond-focused mutual funds could have a lot to say... I leave it as an exercise for the TradingView community. Feel free to tag me if you analyze anything regarding it!
PS. Happy Dump Days as of now (The peak of the product chart), for the main indices are:
DJI: Nov. 8, 2022
SPX: Nov. 10, 2022
NDQ: Oct. 25, 2022
Take a look at price action of the indices after that day if you are curious on how real prices translated from that day onwards.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
DJI/GOLD to drop longterm?It may not be that simple...
Now that inflation is in the headlines, I decided to "follow the herd" and post an idea regarding it.
To compare the current financial market with the market 100 years ago, one may analyze the pairs DJI/CURRCIR, or DJI/ GOLD .
From the chart is trivial to realize that DJI/ GOLD historically moves inside the blue channel.
Historically the following occurred in this specific order.
A. The ratio increases from the bottom of the channel (without a significant change of course) to the top of the channel.
B. RSI maximizes and then breaks it's increasing trendline.
C. Near the RSI trendline break , price breaks it's trendline.
D. Then a retest of the price trendline occurs. Only then the drop is significant.
E. Price reaches the bottom of the channel.
F. After a while, the middle of the channel is tested with a significant reaction to the downside. (In 1976 it caused the ratio to stop growing and the price went below the channel)
G. The price now increases from the bottom of the channel, and the cycle repeats...
Right now we are are in a make-or-break moment.
We haven't reached the top of the channel and already the RSI trendline is violated to the downside and RSI indecisively fluctuates a little above the 50 mark. Shortly after the attempt passing the channel axis, a rejection occured. The price trendline is violated to the downside. It seems a second trendline exists now and looks intact.
On the chart there are 3 very distinct cycles, which peaked in 1929, 1966 and 1999. The cycle lasts about 35 years. I find it very interesting that it is that consistent.
Maybe the 35 year cycle is not that consistent and we are in an abrupt stop. And in the years following having DJI/ GOLD drop significantly. And it makes sense for a drop in stocks and gold exploding. We are talking about food shortages, water shortages and war. This is not a recipe for success for stocks. Most companies need a calm climate to grow.
Or maybe in the end, even though we talk about inflation , money losing it's value and the economy being in the brink of collapse, we will grow until 2030 and then we collapse. After all, recessions happen when noone expects them to. We are also above the 1M, 3M Ichimoku clouds.
Who knows what will happen? I certainly don't know what will happen. My gut feeling is "way down we go". It may be a controlled demolition of the stock market, but I don't think we have much room to grow for now in absolute terms.
$DJI still looks great - Inverse Head & Shoulder in play!Keep eye on intraday $DJI volume 2c how we're doing
So far NO anomalies showing trouble for this run
Great Inverse Head Shoulder pattern going
Monthly Averages DIDN'T crossover = VERY good
Barring something crazy, $DJIA may have enough for 1 - 2 year move
$UDOW $DIA #stocks
DJI Weekly - make or break levelDJI at make-or-break level now, if cross and sustained, then all markets to go berserk for some time. Interesting RSI set up though, high possibility of breakout and then trapping all bulls. Wait and watch scenario.
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my buy entry at 33418.59, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32581.97, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34595.51, where the recent swing high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DOW JONES On familiar 1W MA50 Support, ready for a +50% rally.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been holding the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, closing all weekly candles above it since November 07 2022. This on its own is a major bullish pattern, but if we look on a much long-term, decade long perspective, we can see an even higher significance it historically has on the price action.
As you see on this 1W time-frame, ever since Dow's recovery from the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and the first touch of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on August 2011, every time it bounces and recovers the 1W MA50, holding it as Support (blue circles), the index has grown from that bottom to the next top a minimum of +50% (with 55% of January 2018 being the maximum).
At the same time, the 1W RSI breaks above a Lower Highs trend-line. This time the RSI broke and even held and bounced off that Lower Highs trend-line (green arrow).
This chart shows that Dow Jones is no stranger to this pattern and technically, as long as the 1W MA50 holds, we should be treating it as a major bullish signal. A potential new +50% 2-3 year rally puts the target at 49000.
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$DJI leading the pack & Bear close to be done🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨
Not sure how this was missed!😱
$DJI looks VERY VERY VERY good
Went FULL BULL late Sept/early Oct
Mid Nov went neutral to short term bear
Mid December turned cautious bull
NOW
GOOD signs that September was BOTTOM!
-
This is daily & weekly
Inverse head & shoulder pattern = 1 of the best bottom forming patterns
IF right shoulder forms here = HUGE
We've spoken on light blue box area many times
Weekly $DJIA still looks GREAT
-
BONUS
$DJI monthly almost gave up BUT HELD
Did trade below the avg's but fought back
NO Bearish moving avg crossover
$DJIA movement can buy more time
Maybe year or 2
RSI looks ok
$DIA $UDOW $SDOW #stocks
$NDX means risk coming to playCopy post & continuation from posts not done here
Letting trades sit for moment
Called #risk coming, $NDX vs $DJI
#NDX almost 4x the performance today
NOT SAYING it's "over" but risk reward = GREAT #Bullish
For Friday volume was GOOD
Overall buying coming in last few days
Still like value but have lots of $TQQQ
#stocks
Hard to post all we write here, sorry!
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a buy entry at 33418.59, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32581.97, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 34595.51, where the recent swing high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Open Long (eng) Hello Friends.
Unfortunately, the final way down did not wait
A big player closed his short position and got a new one in the range of 32800-33200.
Yesterday before the close of trading fixed the volume impulse in the market, which finally signaled a trend reversal
Forced to close the Short position at -2.57% from 32840.
Opened Long from 33680
From 06.01.2023 20:12 (GMT)
The arrow shows only the direction of the open trade - without the final target
I'm a bit upset that the deal spoiled the statistics of my analysis method
But this case only confirms the correctness of my approach
Now the statistics is represented by 9 positive trades and 1 negative
or 64.88% profit for the period from 08.07.2021
Thank you all for attention and have a nice trade in the New Year!
DJI, NQ and S&P : 30% DropRevisiting the upward trendline as of 2008 for both DJI, NQ and S&P would result in a 30% drop from current price levels.
These levels coincide with the Covid19 lows.
DOW JONES: Testing the 4H MA200 for the 1st time in 3 weeksDow Jones broke today the 33,460 - 33,500 Resistance Zone that was intact since December 22nd. At the moment it is attempting a test of the 4H MA200, the first since December 15th. Trading within a Channel Up and with 4H technicals bullish (RSI = 62.540, MACD = 15.660, ADX = 24.447) while the 1D MACD is about to make a Bullish Cross, we expect a strong bullish trend if the price breaks and closes above the 4H MA200, with 34,900 (December 13th Resistance) the Target. Preferably we would like to see a break above the Channel Up as well.
A break below the Channel Up will be a short-term sell opportunity with the 1D MA200 as the target, while further break below it, will target the 31,710 Support (November 3rd).
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US30 Liquidity on bot sides of range. When will it dissolve?The tight range serves for alot of stop losses above and under both these key levels.
One side will get taken first, and probably serve as a trap, after which we see a reversal to the actual direction.
(my bias is currently to the downside as the final direction due to fundamentals and broader trend(s))
Although I by no means recommend trading off my bias or trading off this idea at all, especially if you're unfamiliar with the ideas put forth.
The red line should also not be seen as a prediction, merely as a drawing to indicate what I mean by reversal to actual direction with my bias.
It could just aswell take bottom-side liquidity first and then run to the upside.
Don't predict, react.
No Christmas rally this year - new lows are aheadOld target 3392 (pre-Covid high) is in play by EoY/1st week of Jan '23
Dow, potential Sell oportunity!DJ1 Index - The Dow
Weakness likely on the asset, sell idea!
Heed your DD!
CF Industries Holding Analyze!!!🌿CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products, based in Deerfield, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago. It was founded in 1946 as the Central Farmers Fertilizer Company.
After growth of about 500%😱 in the last two years, CF Industries Holding has finally exited its ascending channel.
I expect CF Industries Holding to decline to the minimum support zone (about 15% down).
🔅CF Industries Holding Analyze ( CFUSD ) Timeframe 2Days⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33462.65, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is to clear out the liquidity hotspot. Stop loss will be at 34243.87, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. I am looking to take profit at 32485.23, where the previous lows and liquidity lies.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
