D-DJI
Dow Jones Index retrace?In weekly chart, Index potentially stopped dropping when it was supported by the green band. It break out the downtrend line, should be the 1st step of principle of 123.
Index potential to have a retrace in weekly chart again, if it form the higher low in future, then it is the step 2 of principle 123.
Refer to daily chart, TD sequential 13 show the rebound could be almost exhaust, and the GDMM is at high risk position. If index drop below the low of TD13, the next support is approximate 32000.
Since there is no good chance to buy at this condition, better wait the result of US election patiently.
US30 DOW JONES DJI DAILY TF ANALYSISWe can see that price recently broke through the trend line, but immediately got rejected at 34746, which was around the resistance level from 21st April. Signifying that there's a strong bearish presence at that level.
Now price had retraced back to the trend line and upon touching it, we can see that the bullish momentum is not as strong as the bearish one we saw at 34746, signifying that the trend line might be too weak to act as support.
I have a bearish bias on the Dow, I think that the next movements of price will be either:
Scenario 1: Hug along the trend downwards, towards 31929 which was around 31st of May high, turning that resistance into support. 31929 is also at a 50% fib retracement level, which can act as a stronger level of support for bullish momentum.
Scenario 2: If price breaks below 31929, we might see price heading towards 29727, which was around the low of 17th June, which might act as a support level
Scenario 3: If price breaks below 29727, we might see it heading towards 28539, which was around the low of 3rd Oct, and 13th Oct, which might act as a strong support level
DOW JONES turned the 1W MA50 into Support?This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) on the 1W time-frame where we look into the current 1W (weekly) candle. As you see, the index managed to turn around the mid-week negative sentiment and closed the week above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and in green. Even last week's heavily bearish candle closed above the 1W MA50. Those are early signs that the former Resistance level which rejected the uptrend on August 15 (red circle), may be turning gradually into a Support.
With the RSI within a Channel Up pattern, the current sequence bears similarities with the June - November 2020 fractal. As you see, that fractal also established the 1W MA50 as a Support (3 times), before making a Higher High on the trend-line and eventually breaking to a very aggressive 2021 rally to the All Time High.
As a result, as long as Dow manages to close above the 1W MA50, we will be expecting a Higher High near the 0.786 Fibonacci extension (35000). A closing below it though, should target the lower Fibonacci levels successively.
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Nasdaq 100 Analyze(12/16/2022)!!!Nasdaq was able to break the support line and then complete the pullback.
I expect Nasdaq will go down at least until the uptrend line and heavy resistance zone.
Nasdaq 100 Analyze, (NQ1!USD), Timeframe 1H⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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DJ30 - Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.DJ30 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 32824 (stop at 32600)
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 32824-33421. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 32821 from 32439 to 33439. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 33421 and 33779
Resistance: 33422 / 33779 / 334425
Support: 32824 / 32653 / 32439
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Using the VIX to buy S&P, NASDAQ and Dow Jones 📈📉🐂What is TVC:VIX ?
The VIX is a real-time volatility index created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). This index was the first benchmark to quantify market expectations regarding volatility. However, the index is forward-looking, which means that it only shows the implied volatility of the S&P 500 (SPX) over the next 30 days.
Since the VIX reaches its highest levels when the stock market is more unstable, the media communication tend to refer to the VIX as an indicator of fear and in the sense that the VIX is a measure of the market perception (particularly of concern) such a description is correct.
The implied volatility normally increases when markets present turbulence or the economy decays. Conversely, if the prices of stocks are rising and not changes seem likely substantial, the VIX tends to fall or stay stable at the bottom of your scale. In other words, there is a negative correlation between the VIX and the stock performance. For example, in November 2008, a As stock prices rise dipped, the VIX hit a high historical of 80.86. in the winter of 2013, when the value of the shares rose, the VIX held at about 12 points.
WHAT DOES THE VIX MEASURE?
The VIX measures the expectations of volatility of the capital market based on the option prices. Instead of measuring volatility “realized” or historical, the VIX projects volatility “implied” or expected—specifically from the 30s future days—by measuring changes in S&P 500 option prices.
Historically, when the VIX reaches 40 points or more, the S&P is at the end of its downward trend to make a range or rise, when the VIX reaches 40 points is when it could be said that we are already in recession and "when there is blood, it is because the sharks already attacked" possibly in 2023 we are facing a recession but it could end in a few months and in 2024 have a rise in the American indices as can be seen above.
REMEMBER "HISTORY DOESN'T REPEAT BUT IT RHYMES"
TVC:SPX
TVC:NDQ
TVC:DJI
Possibly the recession ends in the first half of 2023 when the FED lowers interest points to 0.25%
DJI - Mind The Gaps Because Pigs Get clappedThe Dow Jones is in a precarious spot and is going to be hard to call. I have been eyeing this upper gap for some time with an expectation of a fill, notably we created one today that is below us. The upper gap would clearly put us in line with a Santa Claus rally. I've been bearish forever and do expect the lower one to fill eventually. Not financial advice, DYOR
Dow Jones Index Outlook 21 Dec 2022TVC:DJI DJI is clearly moving in a downtrend direction in the 30m timeframe. However, it stopped making a lower low yesterday plus it has a bullish divergence signal between price and RSI.
This bullish divergence is signaling a chance of trend change to either a sideway or uptrend direction, which we need to monitor the price action today.
If the market opens within the range of 32650-33040, then it has a chance of trading in this range for today.
However, if the market chooses to gap open above 33040 then it will test at 33163 and 333000 respectively.
On the other hand, if the market gap opens below 32650 then it will test at 32470 and 32328 respectively
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33418.59, where the previous low is. Stop loss will be at 33899.17, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 32485.23, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Three Sell Signals on the DJIFor the past year the Runner Bot SELL Signal has been on point for DJI on the H4 timeframe. If this rollover of strength from the Bulls continues we are looking at revisiting the $30,000 Support Block for this move.
- Bullish Candle Color rotation to weakness.
- RSI X Colors rotation to weakness.
- Runner Bot firing off a TOP signal (sign of weakness).
- Last Support Pivot is at $32,300.
Thank you and let me know if you have any questions!
Selling DJ30 - Where is the Santa rally?!DJ30 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 33080 (stop at 33480)
4 negative daily performances in succession. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. 33080 has been pivotal. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Bespoke support is located at 31450.
Our profit targets will be 31450 and 28928
Resistance: 33080 / 33432 / 34397
Support: 31450 / 29294 / 28928
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
MV = PQIn this rough draft of an idea, I naively try to figure out the effect of the immense money printing, and the "true" value of inflation.
After BIS came out talking about the hidden debt, I began thinking about the "hidden" money. With such low money velocity, we cannot possibly feel the real effect of all that flood of money.
I am amazed from this chart. Mainly because I just realized that there is a ticker that measures money velocity besides the FRED:M2V. It has the impractical name of A14187USA163NNBR. And it provides us with very long historical data to analyze.
For us to have a remote hope of analyzing such extensive numbers, we simplify certain things. The title is the famous Milton Friedman equation (Quantity Theory of Money). Since I haven't studied finance, I just found out this equation. It was not famous for me. Yet, here I am, an unprofessional talking about finance.
The letters in the title's equation mean the following:
M stands for money.
V stands for the velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money).
P stands for the general price level.
Q stands for the quantity of goods and services produced.
Info taken from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Lous
www.stlouisfed.org
On the chart, there are two charts of the "fixed" SPX*Velocity. Because there are two separate tickers for velocity.
FRED has data on the US GDP only after 1947. So one of the differences between these charts could relate to it.
GDP in a period when QE didn't exist, was a meaningless statistic. Increase in productivity can't take you parabolically high like we see now.
The reason we use SPX*Velocity is the following: If you do some calculations on the MV=PQ equation and multiply by SPX we have:
SPX*Velocity (Chart) = SPX/M * GDP
In reality, this chart shows us the effect of the SPX bubble on GDP. Before 1947 there was horizontal movement.
If you think about it, until 1947 the fact that SPX*Velocity didn't grow, means that SPX is a good representation of GDP.
On the left handside of the equation is the chart, on the right is total product produced.
So now, the parabolic GDP is 100% due to the parabolic movement of SPX thanks to infinity-free-money-printing.
The money velocity tells us more. Because money was not fiat, people used to hoard it and not spend it. So we see a substantial drop from 4.8 to 2 in velocity, before the Great Depression. The same is now, but faster... for the last 20 years, money velocity has taken a skyfall. The slow drop in money velocity occured because money was precious and people kept it. Now it is not moving because there is a MASSIVE amount of it in circulation, but most importantly, because it is hidden, like the hidden debt BIS is looking for.
I know this idea is confusing. There is so much stuff that is hard to explain and visualize.
Let's think of a scenario. If/when the Dollar Milkshake commences, and someone goes bankrupt, the debt is deleted. Since the debt is deleted, let's say that the money is deleted as well. We realize that if the money supply goes incredibly low, it would be as if we "go back in time". The Dollar Milkshake, that will push it's value to incredible highs, is nothing more than turning back the clock in time. All these years everything lost their value, as well as dollar. The only debt that will remain and not go bankrupt, is gold. It is not debt, but it serves as one because it is technically currency.
This is an inverse-pyramid SPY_Master uploaded.
The fake money we have created costs a ridiculous amount compared to gold reserves. GDP has increased 100 times in the last 80 years. And SPX more than 3 times to GDP. This gives us an idea of just how much over-leveraged and overblown the stock market is.
Human values haven't increased 100 times. Hunger poverty and suffering hasn't gone down 100 times. And we are certainly not much wiser than ancient civilizations like the Greeks (perhaps much less wise).
This is a truly fixed SPX chart. And by fixed, I mean qualitatively. It looks like we are in a state like before the Great Depression. Very very bubbled. Who knows if more money printing will take place and take us off the chart.
To conclude, we can calculate inflation if we calculate the missing money velocity. SInce money doesn't circulate, there is low inflation. It is the product of money supply and velocity that matters. If velocity returns to normal levels (it certainly tries to), we look for an increase of 60% in velocity, which would push inflation much higher than now. Imagine the panic we will feel if inflation goes to 15% next year, let alone 60%.
I began writing this idea to calculate the inflation, but my mind went places... It's been fun writing.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
DOW JONES Similarities with Dotcom crash. 1M MA50 is the key.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is trading on a red December candle, following the extreme rise since October that broke back above both the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The 1M MA50 seems to be the key for the uptrend as (excluding the COVID crash), is the line that keeps the multi-year uptrend intact since 2011.
However, the 1M RSI sequence displays a lot of similarities with the 2000 - 2002 Dotcom crash. As you see it also made a marginal break above the 1W MA50 after rebounding on the 1M MA50 but then corrected way more after it lost it (1M MA50) again. The red flag shows where potentially we could be at today. Notice that a similar -38.60% drop would hit or almost hit the Higher Highs trend-line since the 2000 Dotcom Bubble peak.
As a result we consider the 1M MA50 as the key. A new break below it, practically confirms the extension of the 2022 correction for another year. Until that happens though, it is more likely to see the 13 year Bull Cycle continue, targeting 55k in the next 4 years.
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** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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REVEALED: THE DOW JONES 30 What, Facts and Make-upAll index traders trade it...
But do we know anything about The Dow Jones?
I'm going to break down what it is, some interesting facts about the Index and what companies makes up the index.
Save it because it's all you need for the Dow Jones.
WHAT IS THE DOW JONES?
The Dow Jones 30, or DJIA or "The Dow" is a stock market index that reflects the performance of 30 large, publicly traded companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.
INTERESTING FACTS!
1. The index was created by Charles Dow, editor of the Wall Street Journal, in 1896.
2. The DJIA is calculated by taking the sum of the prices of the stocks of the 30 companies included in the index, and then dividing that sum by a divisor, which is adjusted periodically to account for stock splits and other corporate actions.
3. The DJIA is considered a "price-weighted" index, meaning that the stocks with higher prices have a greater impact on the index's value.
4. The DJIA is one of the oldest and most widely followed stock market indices in the world, and it is often used as a barometer of the overall performance of the U.S. stock market.
The DJIA is composed of a mix of blue-chip and cyclical stocks, which means that it tends to be more stable than some other stock market indices, but it can also be affected by economic and market cycles.
The DJIA is often abbreviated as "the Dow" and is quoted in points, rather than dollars. For example, a DJIA value of 32,920 means that the index is at 32,920 points.
WHAT IS MADE UP OF THE DOW JONES?
3M
American Express
Apple
Boeing
Caterpillar
Chevron
Cisco Systems
The Coca-Cola Company
DuPont
Exxon Mobil
Goldman Sachs
The Home Depot
IBM
Intel
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase
McDonald's
Merck
Microsoft
Nike
Pfizer
Procter & Gamble
Travelers
UnitedHealth Group
United Technologies
Verizon Communications
Visa
Walmart
The Walt Disney Company
Exxon Mobil
What Index would you like to know about next?
I'll write about it and post it here.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader