D-DJI
DOW JONES: is on the best long term buy levelBased on the 6 month RSI, Dow Jones is making the final rebound on a Lower Highs pattern that since the 1920s leads to a multi year rally to a peak that ends in a Bear Market.
Remarkably all those rallies started on almost the same intervals: 1921, 1962, 1991 and now 2022. Two out of the previous three made the peak at the end of their respective decade.
Key note is the 90 year Higher Lows Support that has formed the low during all thre major Bear Markets of the past 100 years.
It is hard to believe now amidst the high inflation, global geopolitics ect, but Dow Jones may be at the best long term buy level that could lead to an extreme high at the end of the decade.
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SPX weekend updateThis will be my weekend update.
Im flying out tonight for my birthday week, will be in transit into second part of Sunday, if will have time, I will update more charts from the airport.
For those who know me from the site I was on for 10 years, I will be seeing Tracey on this vacation trip, so very exited to finally meet her in person
We trade every day and Im very exited to trade with her in person. So stay tuned for Twitter life updates.
Ok lets get back to the report:
I had no chance to check the numbers on Friday, but SPX closed right at my maj support level 3933 (close was at 3934 and futs dived down lower).
- So its either a gap up or gap down scenario for Monday!
- Resistance is at 4028-34 (Maj resistance)
- Maj Support is at 3933 and if lost (gaped down on Monday) then 3850 and 3808SPX (next Maj support) becomes the next target
A close below 3808 makes the ideal target next - 3744-48
As noted on Thursday update, if we wont take 3970 it will be very bearish, the high was at 3977 on Friday and you know where it closed!
So that call was successfully fulfilled.
As noted (grey trendlines above Fri highs) on the chart, you can see that the price rejected some broken trendlines from the bottom, its negative.
Close below Thursday low and at the daily lows is negative by itself and usually ends up with continuation on Monday.
This is a 1h chart, look at RSI and MACD, both look terrible and not even close to be oversold! Another negative signal
Fibs targeting right into 3795-3814SPX zone, inline with my next Maj Support level on closing level - 3808SPX
Europe close was at the highs, so they are trapped, big! Another negative signal
VIX closed above its mid daily Bollinger for 3rd day straight, positive for VIX negative signal for the markets.
Will we get a gap down and a crash like move down on Monday I dont know, but the setup is there.
On the other hand if we open at low 3900 (max down to 3889-95 is allowed) and start reversing, it can be a very strong rally day!
So its all up to 3900 level on Monday open, ideally we just gap down below it and dont even look back (can just re-test 3908SPX max). then I can make a case of just riding the wave all the way down to 3800 all in one day!
CPI is on Tuesday, that would be super interesting, as IF, again Big IF there is at 5% down day on Monday and we close near 3748 gap close, then it can be another great lotto call for another Tuesday big a$$ red open like we had on the Oct 13th. Which will be bought for at least a good size bounce going into the Fed Interest rate decision. Which (Fed day) I think will make the price spike up and then reverse hard. If that happens, then we should see 3580 or low 3600 by Dec 19th.
From Dec 19th low, it will be only a long play for me going into early if not mid Jan.
This is my pathway going into the next week and EOY. Next week its def can be the craziest week this year! Well and I have a birthday coming up next week as well:)
Here is a poll to take, it closes on Sunday midnight, feel free to share with anyone at any site you are on. Lets get a clear picture of the sentiment out there:
strawpoll.com
So far 40 already made their bets
Have a great weekend and do as much research as possible for the next week, as who ever gets trapped, it will be very painful!
Please note I can be totally wrong with my prediction, but I have to trade my own homework.
If the wind changed to a different direction, I will quickly update my view on the current market situation.
Tima
DXY updateIn the previous analysis, which was placed in the weekly time frame, we said that it seems that the upward trend of the dollar index continues.
In the 1-hour timeframe, it seems that an Elongated Flat pattern is forming and we are currently in wave C. This pattern shows that we are probably facing a triangle in the future and the correction of this indicator can be a triangle pattern.
After the completion of the pattern, at least 61.8% of the wave C can be expected to return.
Short downside till Fed Rate decision10th Dec 2022
Next week due to CPI and FOMC Rate decision, market will be highly volatile.
Monitor DJI drop to 50% Fibo level, 32800 and determine the next movement.
If Fed announce 50 basis point, may cause short term upside hitting above 34300. However don't be over optimistic as we are in the QT + high rate + inflation environment.
Max Resistance 35300
Support 32800 (Pivot support)
S&P rally looks to be over for now based on 20 day MAIf you look back over this long correction since the beginning of the year, every time the price closed with a red candle below the lower bound of the 20 day moving average the price continued to move lower. I don't see why this time is any different.
I would expect support at the $380 and maybe down to the $375 level. That would bring the S&P right around the mid line of the channel. After that, don't know.
money rotations,"the dow bones, the og index has already shown us what the market is about to do.
those who know, shall prosper, those who don't will be left behind in the winds."
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i'm theorizing that all the dow money is going to rotate into big tech, small caps, and the spx500 in the next 3-4 months.
it's more probable for the dow to just chop while everything else runs up big time.
don't get caught in the distribution phase, seek opportunity elsewhere.
---
dow bones, expanded flat target sits between 36.1~36.8k.
---
happy holidays ♥
💵U.S.Dollar Currency💵 Index Analyze (Short term,12/02/2022)!!!The DXY index was able to make a Bullish ALT AB=CD Harmonic Pattern on the support zone.
I expect the DXY index will go up at least to the resistance line. And in the next step, it will touch the resistance zone after breaking the resistance line.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXY ) Analyze Timeframe 4H (Log Scale)⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position that you want to open).
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Asian Paints Long TermTechnical Analysis :
-- Strict Stop Loss = 3077
-- Target - 1 = 3387
-- Target - 2 = 3625
-- Target - 3 = 4232
-- Strong support at 2786.
-- Touching 55 EMA
Fundamental Analysis :
-- Current price is more than the intrinsic value
-- Maintaining a healthy dividend payout
-- CAGR: 10 years - 22%
-- Cash Flow is negative
-- ROCE : 27 %
As the PE ratio is a little high compared to the Median PE i.e 68.8. So keep on investing in a small amount
Divi's Laboratories Long Term Technical Analysis :
-- Strict Stop Loss = 3150
-- Risk : Reward = 1 : 3
-- Target - 1 = 4059
-- Target - 2 = 4597
-- Target - 3 = 4988
-- Strong support at 3039.
-- Re enter the trade at 3185
-- Touching 200 EMA
Fundamental Analysis :
-- Divi's Lab has a healthy ROE.
-- Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 17%
-- ROCE: Maintaining healthy ROCE of 31.64% (1 year), 28.31(3 years), and 26.9% over the past 5 years.
-- Healthy dividend payout
-- Debt-to-Equity: Divi''s Lab has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.00
-- CAGR: 10 years - 19%
-- Cash Flow: Positive cash flow over the last 5 years
-- P/E ratio: 10 years PE is close to the average PE. So Stock is not overvalued
HUL long term investmentTechnical Analysis :
-- Strong support at 2047
-- Strict Stop Loss = 2440
-- Risk : Reward = 1 : 3
-- Target = 3450
-- Golden crossover in Daily
-- Just crossed the trendline
-- For long-term investment please ignore the targets.
Fundamental Analysis :
-- The company has existed for more than 10 years
-- The company is virtually Debt-free
-- CAGR : 5 year - 17% & 10 year - 18%
-- Revenue, Profit Growth : Over the last 5 years, revenue has grown at a yearly rate of 9–10 %
-- ROCE: Maintaining healthy ROCE of 38.22% (1 year), 90.51(3 years), and 95.95% over the past 5 years.
-- Cash Flow: Over the last 5 years, free cash flow growth has been 8.27%. Which is on the positive side.
-- P/E ratio: Stock is not overvalued as its near to its historical average
-- Maintaining a healthy Dividend
DOW JONES ready to rally! Inflation peaked on a 100 year line!The Dow Jones index (DJI) has been on an enormous rise since late September that even made a Higher High above the 2022 descending Resistance. With inflation being the main catalyst of this 2022 correction, it should come as no surprise that when it normalizes, the index can start seeing growth again.
Well on July the Inflation Rate (USIRYY) got rejected on its most important Resistance level, the Lower Highs trend-line that has been in place since May 1920! This 100 year old trend-line has had another 2 rejections on inflationary peaks (February 1947 and March 1980).
As this chart shows, every inflation drop from a Lower Highs peak was followed by a multi-year rally on Dow Jones, essentially a new expansion period. An exception parhaps was May 1920 when DJI continued to fall for another year, despite a massive correction on Inflation.
As a result, if this Inflation rejection is sustainable and is the start of a major correction, it is more likely to see the stock market rally and enter a new period of growth.
What do you think?
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DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Looking for a possible buy entry at 33240.22, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 32485.23, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 35411.35, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line and previous high is.
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Dow has finished the rebound and will turn down side againAfter the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week, the market take the message that Fed is going to slow down the rate hike, the rally is so hard, but the market is wrong pricing the Fed intend.
in the speech
Powell said, "We are tightening the stance of policy in order to slow growth in aggregate demand. Slowing demand growth should allow supply to catch up with demand and restore the balance that will yield stable prices over time. Restoring that balance is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth."
Fed is intended to slow the growth below-trend, so the Market is still too hot now in the view of Fed and the control of inflation is now successful at this moment.
Powell continue, "Despite the tighter policy and slower growth over the past year, we have not seen clear progress on slowing inflation. To assess what it will take to get inflation down, it is useful to break core inflation into three component categories: core goods inflation, housing services inflation, and inflation in core services other than housing."
DJI's weekly Stochastic is over bought and have started to turn South again. it's a good time to Sell DJI.
S&P500 Will Dow's Golden Cross be a life saver for S&P?The S&P500 got rejected just above the 1D MA200 on the Lower Highs Resistance holding since Jan 2022. Contrary to that, Dow Jones not only has broken above its Lower Highs Resistance since Nov 10th but also made a Higher High above the August High, before getting rejected.
With a Golden Cross emerging on the 1D chart, Dow has high chances of bouncing on the former (Lower Highs) Resistance and establish it as a Support. This can be just whar the S&P500 needs to kick start its rally that breaks above almost a full year of Lower Highs.
Will it succeed?
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