D-DJI
Month DJI Data - DEC likely trade sideways > BONUSESThis is series of charts but can only show 1
1/2
ALWAYS👀@ volume
$DJI Late Apr/May heavy DOWN
Early OCT noticed shift
TURNED FULL BULL, DOCUMENTED
Recently, lower volume but NO heavy SELL
WHY?
BONUSES - #stocks likely to trade sideways till 2023 =
Lil down - lil up
$VIX $SDOW $UDOW $SPX $NDX $QQQ
2/2
$DJI hourly shows nice trend
4Hr shows weakness signs
$DIA ran a lot, expected
LARGEST RUNS tend 2b in BEAR MARKETS, FACT
-
Our position
SMALL short, down tiny amount
Some longs
Nice amount of $
Tons Treasuries few months @ 4.6%
Raised #crypto $ bit, nice run over weekend
#stocks
S&P 500 Price Action & Economic Data An overview of the market technical analysis from the major indices on the first day of the week prior to major economic data, the NFP. What will impact the market movement this week? We will be looking closely at the commodity market, bond yields, US Dollar and the Gold markets. We also touch on AMD stocks as our watchlist for this week.
BTC VS DJI - Log Fractal Fib RetraceLooking at the 1M BTC Chart Over the DJI Index I cannot help but notice a 2018 type similar fractal fib retracement pattern. With the current market conditions could lead to a possible retracement on the DJI Index to the 18k-21k $ region, in that scenario we can expect BTC to retrace to the 7k-10k $ levels. Described a possible playout with plenty bull traps and bear traps. One of the first signs to confirm this theory would be a test and rejection in the 27k-29k $ area. Will keep a watch on how this plays out.
ROARING 20's. WHY ANOTHER BULL MARKET is upon us.Market shocks and drawdowns are designed to shake you out.
Charts are pointing to continual asset inflation this decade.
#DOWJONES to $64,000 was a general target I had in mind a few years ago.
NOW we have confirmation this could indeed play out over the coming 5-7 years
#FTSE100 to break 10,000 and indeed we have a target of over 12,000
#DAX to $25,000
again seemingly absurd numbers
but not so absurd in a historical context.
Bitcoin | SPX, DJI, Altcoins, Flash Crash, The Merge-ETH & MoreWho dares to make a prediction at such a juncture?
Anything goes...
After this type of action, a new low compared to June but with lower volume... We normally tend to see a test of the "counter trendline", this is as common as it can get.
We also have MA200 dropping fast and once this one drops the candles tend to move in the contrary direction and meet up half way.
We also have the feds easing a little bit, any good news the market can use as an excuse for a much needed relief.
We see many Altcoins that did not hit new lows instead hit new highs, signaling that not all is lost.
The SPX is sitting above 4000.
Its bear market is not over but already in the relief phase with a few more weeks to go.
The DJI broke the August high... We see some positive signals around...
What about Bitcoin, where will it go?
We are looking for a jump now but we have no volume, no positive signals... So many a flash crash and then up?
Ethereum, the merge, is already trading above EMA10 but weak nontheless...
I say up... What about you?
Let me know in the comments below.
Namaste.
DOW JONES doing what it has always done through history. Rising.This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) on the log scale since the great depression of the 1930s. A lot of talk is being done lately on whether or not this recent rally is sustainable, or if the high inflation can cause a deeper correction etc. In order to put things into perspective it is always useful to look into the longer term charts, preferably on a multi-year horizon.
This is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where we've applied the Fibonacci Channel and its retracement levels on this 90 year price action. It is easy to realize that the Fibonacci levels have historically created zones of Support and Resistance. Right now, and despite the 2022 correction (Bear Market), Dow is within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib, which is part of the larger 0.382 - 0.618 Fib Zone, which we call "Healthy Bull Zone" as when the index stays within it, it tends to rise on healthy growth levels.
To make things more interesting, Dow's early January top (All Time High) and subsequent rejection was made exactly on the 0.618 Fib. It shouldn't be a surprise that the recent October low and the subsequent rebound was made on the 0.5 Fib. This is a Support trend-line that 2017 only broke once during the 2020 COVID crash (which remarkably touched the 0.382 Fib and rebounded). In this 5 years Dow has been rising sustainably within this tight top half of the Healthy Bull Zone.
In fact, when the index trades within two levels tightly, it tends to do so for a very long time. Such periods are indicated by the blue ellipse patterns and besides the 2017 - 2022 one, we can see another 6 major periods.
As a result we can argue that right now Dow Jones is doing "what it always done through history" and that is rise sustainably within a tight Fibonacci zone long-term. This makes the index as bullish as it ever was.
Some added facts on this Channel. As you see we've categorized the zones based on the likely outcome they can provide. Next to the Healthy Bull Zone we see the Oversold (0.382 - 0.236 Fib) and Overbought (0.618 - 0.786 Fib) Zones, which is where the index presents a rare buy and sell opportunity respectively. In fact the 2008 Housing Crisis put us in an oversold position most recently and before that it was the 1987 Black Monday event. At the top of the Channel we have the 0.786 - 1.0 Fib 'Collapse Zone', where a mega collapse event is likely, and the index has only been there at the height of trading before the Great Depression. At the bottom of the Channel we have the 0.236 - 0.0 Fib 'Once in a life time buy opportunity Zone', which as you can imagine is the extremely oversold region where Dow has historically been the most attractive level to buy. The very bottom (March 2009) of the Housing Crisis marginally pierced through and before that (again marginally) the 1987 Black Monday.
** It is worth noting that from 1974 to 1986, the market traded almost entirely within this extremely oversold Fib zone. It was when the U.S. were ravaged by extremely high inflation levels (aftermath of the Vietnam war among others), with many sceptics today comparing the present day to that era.
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NYSE Index Bear Case.Good evening,
This post is part of a series of requests i recently received.
The request was: "What is your bearish projection on the US stonk market".
---
Some may ask,
what is the NYSE Index?
👇
The NYSE Composite is a stock market index covering all common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange,
including American depositary receipts, real estate investment trusts, tracking stocks, and foreign listings.
---
My estimated top for the New York Stock Exchange Index sits at $15,546 ~ $18,545
High probability target = $16,600
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My estimated bottom on this one is roughly between $12,293 ~ $10,064
High probability target = $11,319
---
🔺
Let's learn about flats.good evening,
in preparation for my next few bear posts,
i'd like to talk about the three different types of flats in the markets.
the main reason why i'm bringing this up right now,
is because the USA Indexes are displaying all three of these patterns currently,
so it's important to familiarize yourself with these fractals, for future references.
feel free to share this with your peoples if you find it helpful.
---
regular flats :
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B terminates near the start of wave A
• Wave C generally terminates slightly beyond the end of wave A
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 90% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of wave AB
---
expanded flats
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A
• Wave C ends substantially beyond the ending level of wave A
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 123.6% of wave A
• Wave C = 123.6% – 161.8% of wave AB
---
running flats
• A corrective 3 waves move labelled as ABC
• Subdivision of wave A and B is in 3 waves
• Subdivision of wave C is in 5 waves impulse / diagonal
• Subdivision of wave A and B can be in any corrective 3 waves structure including zigzag, flat, double three, triple three
• Wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates substantially beyond the starting level of wave A as in an expanded flat
• Wave C fails travel the full distance, falling short of the level where wave A ended
• Wave C needs to have momentum divergence
Fibonacci Ratio Relationship
• Wave B = 123.6% of wave A
• Wave C = 61.8% – 100% of wave AB
---
-- full credit to elliottwaveforecast for all of these guidelines
Dow Jones Bear Case.gm,
---
The highest request over the last few weeks = "elo, what's your bear case on the stonk market?".
Well, you guys asked for it...
So I'm here to give you just that.
A face ripping,
soul crushing,
heart wrenching dip;
which takes the average american's 401k,
and turns it into a 201k.
---
Tuesday November 29th 2022 ~ December 21st 2022 = my calculated top.
Estimated to sit between 34,329 ~ 36,697.
.
---
Friday May 12th 2023 ~ Tuesday October 24th = my calculated bottom.
Estimated to sit between 27,317 ~ 23,620
.
---
🔺
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation The overall bias for DJI is bullish on the H4 chart. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, demonstrating a bullish market. Looking for an immediate buy entry at swing high 34106. 01 for this trade. At the previous swing low of 33063.05, where my relative safe stop loss is located, The previous swing high, or 35492.22, will serve as the take-profit point.
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DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 24th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . Looking for an immediate buy entry at 34106.01, where the previous swing high is. I have set a relative safe stop loss at 33063.05, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is.
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$VIX filled gap, NOW WHAT?!Buy on rumor
Sell on news
REMEMBER THAT!
Feds gave lil gift - No one wants to rattle this time of year
OK, $VIX did what we expected
GAP FILLED
Now WHAT?
We wait to be sure that "top" is in, again
BUT until we get DIRECTION, can nibble here & there
@ Symmetrical Triangle support
🚨 We break Long Term = NEW BULL
#VIX $SPX $SPY #stocks