A "Welcome to" Pinescript codingThis simple idea is an intro to @TradingView & @PineCoders
Nothing fancy or complex, if you are already coding - you can skip this.
simple MA build walk through & adding a second MA.
If you want to get into coding, then here's the basic introduction.
FYI - I am not a coder, 21 years trading experience and know a bit about the instruments - but new to actual coding, especially in Pine.
Hope it helps someone!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
D-ETH
Taproot upgrade: 1st major upgrade in 4 years for BTC| what now?Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
Quick glance: In our last tutorial, we discussed the use of MACD in different time frames in crypto-trading. In this tutorial, we will discuss the Taproot upgrade: the first major upgrade for BTC in 4 years!
Let us delve deeper into the Taproot upgrade and why it was so badly needed!
The Taproot upgrade for BTC would allow smart contracts to be run efficiently and cheaply! As of now, smart contracts are usually run on the Ethereum network because of the higher efficiency. However, with the Taproot upgrade, Bitcoin has the potential to elevate itself and integrate with mainstream finance.
Taproot upgrade for Bitcoin would allow smart contracts to take up lesser space on the network. Technologically speaking the Bitcoin network currently uses the 'Elliptic Curve Digital Signature algorithm.,' which occupies more space. It will be switched over to the 'Schnorr signatures' that will make the simpler transactions potentially indistinguishable from complex transactions. It translates into greater anonymity in the network while maintaining transparency.
Apart from the efficiency aspect, the ability to run smart contracts cheaper is what will be revolutionary. Currently, running smart contracts on Bitcoin's core protocol layer is not exactly feasible. It is quite expensive and time-consuming, thereby rendering it almost useless. Many experts suggest that smart contracts would be one of the key selling points for Taproot. To put things into perspective, smart contracts can be used for almost any trivial financial transaction such as paying utility bills to pay rent, among others.
The impact on the investors would likely be huge. Any long-term investor knows that the true potential of their asset would come from practical use cases that are adopted by the masses. Bitcoin's taproot upgrade might just be the key element that would propel it into mainstream finance. The bottom line is the kind of revolution that the Taproot upgrade might bring for Bitcoin is phenomenal.
How to maximise profit while capturing a trend in crypto tradingQuick glance: We have come up with another tutorial to maximise the potential of MACD in capturing a trend. In this tutorial, we discuss the use of MACD in different time frames in crypto-trading.
First let us understand how is the MACD histogram calculated?
The MACD-Histogram measures the distance between MACD and its signal line (the 9-day EMA of MACD).
Like MACD, the MACD-Histogram is also an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line.
But then, MACD is a lag indicator! Then how do we predict future movements with it?
Since the Signal Line is the EMA of the MACD line, it lags the value of MACD. Therefore, when MACD > Signal Line, the market has an overall positive sentiment. When MACD < Signal Line, the market has an overall negative sentiment. Thus when MACD Histogram is positive, bullishness is anticipated. When MACD Histogram is negative, bearishness can be anticipated.
Hence the following buy/sell signals can be generated:
Buy when:
MACD Histogram > 0
MACD crosses up Signal Line
Sell when:
MACD Histogram < 0
MACD crosses down Signal Line
T1: 1D timeframe
T2: 1H timeframe
Please note:
The fact that there were minimum/none false signals generated shows how beautifully we filtered the false signals using MACD Histogram in multiple time-frames to determine the overall trend first and then generate the buy/sell signals.
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Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
- Mudrex
Difference between fast & slow moving RSI |Use in crypto tradingQuick glance: In our last tutorial analysis, we discussed RSI Divergences. In this tutorial, we discuss the difference between a fast and slow moving RSI and how to effectively use this in crypto-trading.
First let us understand what is meant by "lookback" period?
Lookback is the period under consideration. For example, typically RSI is calculated on a 14-period consideration.
2-period lookback is highly volatile and a 20-period lookback RSI would be smoother than a 14-lookback RSI.
2-RSI is a fast moving RSI and 20-RSI is a slow moving RSI.
Lookback period and timeframe are totally different. In both these charts, we have used a 1-day timeframe.
How to use fast and slow moving RSI in trading cryptos
Using fast and slow moving RSI we can place aggressive low risk trades. The key to achieving this is by determining the predominant market trend. In both the charts, we have used the 200 day - SMA to determine the trend.
Price of the underlying > 200day SMA == Predominantly Bullish trend
Price of the underlying < 200day SMA == Predominantly Bearish trend
Buy when:
Price > 200-SMA
2-RSI < 5
Sell when:
Price < 200-SMA
2-RSI > 95
Please note:
One of the most best ways to catch the trades on fast moving RSI could be using algo-trading. It would ensure that accurate signals are not missed!
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Any feedback and suggestions would help in further improving the analysis! If you find the analysis useful, please like and share our ideas with the community. Keep supporting :)
- Mudrex
The Basics - Trend LinesTrend lines are used in technical analysis to define an uptrend or downtrend. Traditionally, uptrend lines are made by drawing a straight line through a series of ascending higher troughs (lows). ... With downtrends, trend lines are formed by drawing a straight line through a series of descending lower highs.
In an uptrend, the “imaginary line” acts as support and in a downtrend, the line connecting the points at swing highs become the resistance.
Although we can go into what and why – the logic for trend line, is to keep it simple. It’s another subjective area and people like to spot patterns. It’s human nature.
This shows in it's most basic form the concept of a trend line.
In an uptrend we want to see, higher highs as well as higher lows as shown below;
And in a down trend, the opposite is true - Lower highs & lower lows to create the pattern as per main image of this post.
Many other techniques and indicators use this concept, and perhaps the most famous being Elliott waves.
Here's a post on Elliott basics;
This then all points back to Dow Theory - where markets have 3 cycles and 3 waves (another lesson for another time) in short;
Here's also a post covering the Dow basics;
You can also use Moving averages as part of "working out the trend"
And her is another simple guide to MA's (moving Averages)
We thought it would be interesting to post, more of a beginners post that our usual stuff. Hope this helps some of the newer traders.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Learn to Read Chart (MACD & XRP)✅ The MACD line is the 12-day Exponential Moving Average ( EMA ) less the 26-day EMA . Closing prices are used for these moving averages. A 9-day EMA of the MACD line is plotted with the indicator to act as a signal line and identify turns. The MACD Histogram (Below the chart) represents the difference between MACD and its 9-day EMA , the signal line. The histogram is positive when the MACD line is above its signal line and negative when the MACD line is below its signal line.
✅ MACD's formula:
MACD = 12-Period EMA − 26-Period EMA
✅ MACD is often displayed with a histogram which graphs the distance between the MACD and its signal line. If the MACD is above the signal line, the histogram will be above the MACD’s baseline. If the MACD is below its signal line, the histogram will be below the MACD’s baseline. Traders use the MACD’s histogram to identify when bullish or bearish momentum is high.
✅ The box below the chart has 2 lines which alert traders when a crossover happens:
Crossovers are more reliable when they conform to the prevailing trend. If the MACD crosses above its signal line following a brief correction within a longer-term uptrend, it qualifies as bullish confirmation.
If the MACD crosses below its signal line following a brief move higher within a longer-term downtrend, traders would consider that a bearish confirmation.
✅ TradingView lets you use the MACD for fast and easy forecasting. You can find it in Indicators & Strategies (f(x)) above your chart.
Learn to Read Charts (Stochastic Oscillator & ETH)✅ Ever heard people saying that something is "overbought" or "oversold"?
One of the most famous and powerful tools for this is the Stochastic Oscillator.
This indicator easily shows you if something is overbought or oversold.
✅ What is a Stochastic Oscillator?
A stochastic oscillator is an indicator that compares a specific closing price of an asset to a range of its prices over time – showing momentum and trend strength. It uses a scale of 0 to 100. A reading below 20 generally represents an oversold market and a reading above 80 an overbought market. However, if a strong trend is present, a correction or rally will not necessarily ensue.
✅ To use the stochastic oscillator, it is first important to understand exactly what the readings are showing you.
The stochastic oscillator is a bound oscillator, which means it operates on a scale of zero to 100 – this scale represents an asset’s entire trading range during the 14 days, and the final percentage shows where the most recent closing price sits within the range. This makes it easy to identify overbought and oversold signals. Regardless of how quickly the market price changes, or how the market volume fluctuates, the stochastic oscillator will always move in this range.
✅ If there is a reading over 80, the market would be considered overbought, while a reading under 20 would be considered oversold conditions.
✅ If we continue our previous example, a reading of 93.3% would be considered extremely overbought during the 14-day period. Following stochastic oscillator theory, this implies that a price reversal would be impending. In fact, some people believe that a reading above 90 is extremely risky and warrants the closing of positions.
✅ The most common use of the stochastic oscillator is to identify bullish and bearish divergences – points at which the oscillator and market price show different signals – as these are normally indications that a reversal is imminent. A bullish divergence occurs when the price records a lower low, but the stochastic oscillator forms a higher low. This shows that there is less downward momentum and could indicate a bullish reversal. A bearish divergence forms when the market price reaches higher highs, but the stochastic oscillator forms a lower high – this indicates declining upward momentum and a bearish reversal.
✅ However, it is always important to remember that overbought and oversold readings are not completely accurate indications of a reversal. The stochastic oscillator might show that the market is overbought, but the asset could remain in a strong uptrend if there is sustained buying pressure. This is often seen during market bubbles – periods of increased speculation that cause an asset’s price to reach consistently higher highs.
✅ TradingView lets you use the Stochastic Oscillator for fast and easy forecasting. You can find it in Indicators & Strategies (f(x)) above your chart.
How to LOSE your MONEY in a day!!!Wanna lose your money? Follow these steps:
1. Follow Elon Musk on Twitter
2. Panic Sell
3. FOMO Buy
4. Enter more than 5% of your assets into a single trade
5. Use high leverages
6. Buy new hype coins
7. Get greedy
8. Draw meaningless lines on a chart
9. Don't use Fibonacci
10. Believe that you're the smartest person in the room
Which one of these mistakes have you made?
Share your experience in the comments.
Emotional Analysis I have posted recently on Wyckoff, Elliott cycled, Gann education and covered psychology.
The Thing is - as a long time trader, you often see new comers and the assumption is more indicators, more stuff = better results. Take a step back and view this from 30,000 feet. You looking at finding an edge, an edge can be as simple as risk management and positioning yourself with a great risk to reward system.
The problem is, if there was an algo or one indicator that could make you rich. The world would quickly run out of doctors and postmen.
What Elliott, W.D.Gann, Wyckoff, Dow and others clearly understood - was not the technical count on the chart, or if this is a UTAD or a spring event. What they appreciated was human nature - psychology.
I wrote this post to show how the mindset fits into the chart - When everyone started posting the "Wall Street, cheat sheet" and asking - Where are we? I would respond, depending on where you bought or sold. It's not a group thing. Unless you refer to sentiment - which is another topic again.
The issue is - everyone is looking to have their hand held. Indicators can be useful of course. But you cannot depend, rely or only take buy and sell signals.
Make yourself sheep and the wolves will eat you.
Benjamin Franklin
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So whilst people assume The Elliott's and the Gann's where the titans of technical. There's a deeper skill they tapped into. Emotional analysis. When studying Elliott, you can walk through a certain journey of why the price moves up & pulls back. Why it rapidly grows in wave 3 and why the 4th becomes messy. Elliott knew what drove these moves & how the retail traders follow on like sheep.
click link for full article
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Wyckoff and Dow - this is not a lesson on the technical side. It's an eye opener.
Wyckoff could make a schematic of the logic and emotions inside the chart and simply plotted it. Dow, simplified it into 6 market tenets. But either way they knew more about the market psychology than they did the chart.
If you are looking to trade alt coins - you need to understand the project, the team & just like investing in a stock. Get a feel for the company.
This last week, I have seen social media posts about "this guy lost this, that or the other" All blaming and pointing fingers at Musk - the truth is if you need to follow a celebrity for stock picking. Chose another sport. Doctors, lawyers, accountants and many professions take many years just to qualify - why is crypto trading any different?
Professional traders know this - and currently it's like having penguins in the water for the first time, the pro's are the sharks.
PSYCHOLOGY This is all it boils down to.
We assume big brother is watching, we assume stocks, crypto etc all being manipulated. There's often talk about FOMO & FUD. Wyckoff knew this as the "Composite man"
Truth is - retail do it to themselves 90% of the time, trying to catch tops and bottoms. Not learning market phases or cycles and then blaming everyone else for their mistakes. Everyone wants to strike it rich, one trade and millions. Seems to be the mentality. It needs time & proper risk management.
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If you can take a step back and see the market with "emotional vision" switched on, you will see why Elliott & Wyckoff are applicable today - Humans don't change, the psychology and mindset is still the same. Market manipulation is strong and real - it's just not what you think.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
IOTAUSD _ If this were the WYCKOFF Accumulation ...On many websites educating us in relation to various trading methods and trading psychology we see often Wyckoff Schematics in relation to Distribution and Accumulation.
This example presents IOTAUSD trading pair, but obviously could be used on others. It's quite complex and extensive for beginner traders to wrap your head around but if true and spotted early might become a lucrative trading method for those who are patient.
Here I present an example which might obviously fail, but at least you know what you could expect if this were to platy out.
Wyckoff Basics part 2After my last educational wyckoff post - I had a lot of comments, questions and so on.
The idea was to post the basics and show the concept - there has been a lot of the overlay, breakdown and other people jumping on this. It was a move we called on the 18th of March (see the "they blew up the rocket" post).
In terms of some simple education, Wyckoff is deep and possibly too deep for newer traders. What I was trying to highlight was the existence of such techniques. In part one;
I only covered the point of how the distribution phase was playing out in Bitcoin.
In this post, I will share some additional depth - for those of you already familiar with Wyckoff techniques you already have this. So we are not covering here (volume, how to identify or any of the more advanced stuff or terms like creeks or mark-ups and downs) Just another simple intro to the basics & a step up from post one.
So if you have not seen the first post; check it out here by clicking the image.
4 Major types of schematics
The Accumulation and Distribution Schematics are a major part of Wyckoff’s work, These schematics are broken down into 2 patterns for accumulation and 2 for distribution. These sections are then divided into five Phases (A to E), along with multiple Wyckoff Events - we will cover this later.
Distribution schematics
So in the previous post & it was fortuitous that Bitcoin was a near textbook example of the distribution schematic #1.
The second type of distribution schematic looks like this;
As you can see, there are a lot of similarities & it can be confusing, but this is where it's best to dig deeper into the concept, why volume plays a big part in Wyckoff techniques and gain an understanding of the naming convention for each of the events inside.
** We have a naming convention key below **
Accumulation
As well as distribution you also have accumulation and this also has 2 (major) schematics;
#1
And #2
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Key;
The first phase or ways to identify a schematic forming is with what is called a PS (Accumulation) or PSY (distribution) - this is basically the change of character as the trend moves towards a schematic; Preliminary Support (PS) and Preliminary Supply (PSY). The first significant reaction that occurs after a prolonged rally that
indicates budding supply showing up.
You then have a BC or SC - buyer climax / sellers Climax; the obvious BC in an uptrend suggesting institutional operators cashing out. and the inverse with the SC.
The next major event is the AR - Automatic reaction (rally) - The reaction that occurs after a Buying Climax. It occurs without previous preparation, hence the word “automatic.” and in layman terms it's the exit of large positions after a climax (SC and BC) event.
ST next - this is a second test (ST) A name given by Wyckoff to the reaction following Automatic Rally, (or rally following the Automatic reaction.) If that test is associated
with small range and light volume — it increases the likelihood that the previous trend is over.
Next a move down if it is accumulation would be a SOW - this is "Sign of Weakness" and inverse we have SOS "Sign of strength"
In distribution - you then have two major differences over the accumulation schematic; UT = Up Thrust and a UTAD = UP Thrust after Distribution.
For distribution you have a spring, think of this like the last drop before moving up rapidly out of a schematic on the Bullish side.
You then have "Test" phases usually of the support and resistance levels (zones) created by the schematic as shown in the images above.
And finally you have LPSY for distribution Last Point of Supply - A point at the end of the process of distribution where the Composite Man (Large operators) recognizes that demand forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking down prices.
Last Point of Support (LPS) which is the accumulation equivalent - A point at the end of the process of accumulation where the large operators recognizes that supply forces have exhausted themselves and it is safe to start marking up prices.
This is still only the basics, not looking at phases or volume or anything else yet. It's worth going away and studying this in a little more detail to get familiar with the concepts and terminology and in the next post I will cover the phases.
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I know a lot of you readers are here purely for the crypto/BTC calls made - and another logical reason we are still liking a slow move down at this level, comes in the current DXY situation. See this post below as to the current situation there. (the relevance might be small - But understanding the forces at work, with DXY to BTC. Is actually useful).
Shorter term strength = will aid BTC slow moves.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Regardless of the skill levelAs a mentor - I try to get the message over so regardless of the level of skill you have or anyone in the @TradingView community has there will be nuggets of information that are digestible, simple to understand and a little fun along the way.
The issue you have with such a broad community, is there are all types of traders here. When I have written something a bit more complex I have had "I don't get it" or DM's asking to explain more. - you can't please everybody all of the time.
When I have left it to the bare minimum - even included "basic" or "introduction" in the title - I get, "this is not right, you forgot this, that or the other" or comments like "your doing it wrong" - we are in the age of the keyboard warrior. So the best way to simplify the message and deliver material that's broad enough for the masses, is by simplifying the info and adding enough technical nuggets to at least start the journey into the topic of the post.
Obviously, without a post being 400 pages long. It is also nion-impossible to give enough without giving too much.
When I wrote the Simpsons post.
It was taking something (not too complex) but complex for some, and adding the emotional states we have all experienced.
The tired bull -
Was actually playing on the BTC short call from March and some logic for the call.
This was from the "why people invest in crypto" post - and it's idea is to show the similarities to the Vegas gold hunters, one spin of the roulette table & the expectation of one win!
When I have gone into more depth in posts like Buying the dips, Gann Fan tutorial or even the most recent Wyckoff one.
You can see it will be daunting for newer traders. So I have tried to find a happy medium and adding a little fun to the charts along the way.
Recently in Crypto we have seen Social influencers such as Elon Musk and Paris Hilton say and post all kind of things. The issue is, and the point of this post. Is you need to do your own due diligence, you need to deploy proper risk management & get your own psychology in check. I am seeing and hearing of some crazy issues, caused by nobody but the trader themselves - over leveraging.
Trading is a long term skill, not a one hit win at the casino!
When in a community like this - nobody benefits from negativity. If your happy fighting the keyboard, take a little time to go and add some content you find helpful for others.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
How to assess an altcoinWhen doing fundamental analysis into a stock or in this case a coin – you need to appreciate, it is still a company after all. So, your fundamental analysis should include, taking a deep dive into the available information. You might want to review the project use case, the team, and the money the project has raised so far.
As you can’t really do technical analysis with limited data available on the charts.
Your goal is to reach a conclusion on whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued. At that stage, you can use your insights to inform your trading positions. In other words, have we had a major hype & can a dump be expected?
Trading assets as volatile as cryptocurrencies requires some skill. You will need to define a strategy – otherwise, you are Gambling & not trading or investing.
As for Technical analysis, some expertise can be inherited from the legacy financial markets. Many new crypto traders use the same technical indicators seen in Forex, stocks, and commodities trading.
You often see tools such as the RSI, MACD, and Bollinger Bands which seek to predict market behavior, the issue with this is the lack of data mentioned above. Yet, these technical analysis tools are also extremely popular in the cryptocurrency space.
Slightly harder to read a moving average when the price is in a 90-degree move up.
With cryptocurrency fundamental analysis, though the approach is similar to that used in legacy markets, you can’t really use tried-and-tested tools to assess crypto assets. To conduct a proper analysis, what we need is to understand where they (the company/Coin) derive value from.
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For you newer traders…
“What is fundamental analysis (FA)?”
Fundamental analysis (FA) is an approach used by investors and traders to establish the "intrinsic value" of an asset or business or in this case, crypto. By looking at a number of internal and external factors, their main goal is to determine whether said asset or business is overvalued or undervalued. They can then leverage that information to strategically enter or exit positions.
The goal of this article is not to dive into the methods of FA as a whole, rather just to highlight where you should begin.
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However, there are problems with crypto fundamental analysis (in the traditional sense)
Cryptocurrency networks can't really be assessed through the same lens as traditional businesses. If anything, the more decentralized offerings like Bitcoin (BTC) are closer to commodities. But even with the more centralized cryptocurrencies (such as those issued by organizations), traditional FA indicators can't tell us much.
So now we are stuck between a rock and a hard place…
A quick step would be to identify strong metrics, these should not really take into account things like Twitter or Facebook followers. It’s so easy these days to buy several thousand followers for social media sites.
One method could be; the number of active addresses on a blockchain and see that it has been sharply increasing? For example…
Are we seeing Company actors transferring money back and forth to themselves with new addresses each time? This is the level of info you can go down to – we are on the Blockchain after all.
A little more TECHNICAL
If you want to get a bit more technical – you can look at “On-Chain” metrics in depth. On-chain metrics are those that can be observed by looking at data provided by the blockchain itself.
By running a node for the desired Crypto and examining the data, this can be time-consuming and expensive. Particularly if you are only considering the investment, and don't want to waste time or resources on this process.
A simple way to do this (in some instances) is to use API-based solutions, plug into exchanges, and see third-party tools such as Binance-research's project reports.
Look for info such as;
1) Active Addresses
2) Transaction value
3) Fees – this will give an idea of the demand…
Other areas as mentioned above
You are looking to ‘invest’ in a tech company, which is the longs and shorts of it. So go and read through the whitepaper. Assess use cases, do they make sense to you?
Review the team, do they have experience or have they already raised finance enough to keep the project going – you can now use the chain metrics – to see money flow, you could go and look at the companies register, in the UK all companies are set up under “companies house” this will show shareholders, early account info, company directors.
Other factors
How about competition in the space? What projects are offering similar solutions, are the other companies further along? Does the company you are looking at, have some kind of USP over their competitors?
Supply Mechanisms – Liquidity and volume – Market Cap.
These are all things to take into consideration .
And Finally - Initial distribution and Tokenomics as a whole
A lot of projects have created tokens as a solution looking for a problem. Doge on the other hand created a meme for the market, which is turning into a solution.
Understanding the use case, cannot be stressed enough. As such, it's important to determine whether the token has real utility. And, will it have decent adoption?
Consider how the funds were initially distributed. Was it via an ICO or IEO, or could users earn it by mining?
The whitepaper should outline how much is kept for the founders and team, and how much will be available to investors. If it was mined, you could look to evidence of the asset's creator pre-mining (mining on the network before it's announced).
We have a live stream Monday at 3:30 GMT with @Paul_Varcoe
📺 www.tradingview.com 📺
As I said, this is only to give you a starting point - especially for you newer traders. There are several other factors & methods but start here.
Which crypto to put your money?Choose a chart that trends up when you want to buy or one that trends down when you want to sell. On this chart you will find a few examples. Say that you are looking for a long position, which requires you to buy, then DOGEUSD is possibly breaking out its triangle and making a new high.
Disclaimer: Nothing posted here is investment advice, also as stated in the TradingView house rules .
Parabolic Explosion / The Bitcoin PhenomenaGood Morning traders! Today we bring you a curious post, and maybe a bit controversial, since we are going to propose a future behavior in bitcoin (in relation to past events) with an extremely interesting price target.
To make this post, we will focus on the last large corrections, that is, backward movements that lasted for months or perhaps years. They can be clearly seen in the chart of the post, because the chart is in a logarithmic scale (if you do not know what the logarithmic scale means, leave a comment and we will gladly make an educational post in relation to the different scales in the graph).
We can see great similarities in the corrective movements, and so far the impulsive movements have been respected.
Speaking of corrective movements, we see that both have a depth of approximately 85%, and a duration of between 1100 and 1300 days.
🔸We can see more clearly the corrections in the two charts below:
🔸The target set in both situations is the theoretical target of this type of movements. Of course, the movement after the first correction ended up being abruptly greater than the theoretical. The rise of the previous impulse was +1600%:
Now what we ask ourselves is if the current impulsive movement replicates the previous rise. If so, it would imply a +1600% rise from the breakout, resulting in an approximate target of $340,000.
Interesting, right?
This kind of behavior is common on many cryptocurrencies. We have more examples and cases, so, feel free to comment the cryptocurrency you are inteterested in and we will try to apply this kind of analysis to it!
ETHBTC - A simple approachShowing support is greatly appreciated and keeps up the motivation in continuous ideas and education for the community.
Observe: 0.041895, 0.045950
Two prices that indicate structure, we can now quickly identify that both prices have been important in a direction, volume and liquidity change, thus giving us key identifiers we can label for reference when we analyze a chart.
You can use the "Horizontal Line" tool to analysis almost any security across multiple time frames, it's use is widely forgotten and you can't simplify a chart any less...
Horizontal Line Tool:
- Mark out important prices
- Help show a position, entry, stop
- Plot important alerts
- Simplify Analysis
If you'd like more quick educational posts like this, show us some support
Sceptical indicators, strategies or tools? Thoughts? So this post is a little different - it's not an analysis or really a tutorial. I am looking to see what the community sees as the strangest, craziest, most colourful, most interesting or pointless indicator, strategy or tool?
About 2 years ago I was shown a strategy/technique - I assumed it was complete rubbish, it talks about Lunar dates, cycles. Now although cycles play a role in the market - I wasn't convinced it was powered by the moon. At first, I was very dubious about the concept of what seemed a sceptical idea.
Over the years I have studied Fibonacci, Elliott, Gann, Wyckoff and often see logic to the idea. Now and again something pops up on the radar & I like to explore it. I've tested Algo's and Robots, strategies that claim 97% success rate. You name it and it's possibly sitting in the junk hard drive with my FX/trading pdfs, indicators & videos.
Delta Phenomenon
In the early 80's, Welles Wilder founded the Delta Society International. His purpose was to share the “secret of the order behind the markets.” This order, the Delta Phenomenon, is the basis of all market movement relative to time. All other methods of technical analysis are enhanced by this timing tool. As you will learn, the Delta Phenomenon gives a higher probability of trading success to existing systems. Mr. Wilder states "I have solved the Delta Phenomenon for many different markets over hundreds of years of data and I have never seen a failure in this order."
Now at this point - I'm thinking, why isn't this mainstream or this guy not locked up in a nuthouse?
I had read other Wells Wilder books and found them to be overly simplistic. In that regard, I was not disappointed. Now as I said at the start of this article, I'm not looking to teach the method - it's such a strange concept, I thought there must be other people out there with things they find interesting or pure crazy?
Pitchforks for example - why do they work, how do they work? (not a question, more a statement)
How about Gann? Why and how can Gann techniques plot trend lines for the future?
Master of the Universe - Fibonacci levels - Again, why???
If you look at the dates on the chart above - these are forecasted using the delta technique, in theory, it's trying to predict moves in the market using moon cycles. Blank circles are daily turn points, circles & dots are major moves and the large circles with both, are dates whereby both near and medium dates co-exist.
I am keen to hear what you think? Do you know of the delta phenomenon? Have you used it? What about something else similar? or just something you find interesting or/and random? How about something you are sceptical about?
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Horizontals and Breakouts: Using ETH as an ExampleThis is an education based on the LTCUSD chart that I posted today.
I have also linked my previous education idea down below where I want to drill down one key fundamental: Participation matters, price DOES NOT. DO NOT get emotional seeing price (low or high), look at the participants to see how many people are buying/selling at these levels. Price DOES NOT always imply that there is participation. And Prices at bubble tops NEVER imply participation. Most people have bought/sold before these bubble top levels arrive.
Here I show another example where the VPVR (Volume profiles at various price levels) predicted the correct line of resistance. Most charters DO NOT understand this. Patterns lie all the time. A lot of charters on Tradingview and REAL traders use the price tops/ ATHs to draw trend lines. PLEASE do not do this if there isnt meaningful participation/volume at these levels. Hope this helps clarify some arguments that people continue to have on where to draw trend lines from and if you are correctly capturing the wicks.
Result: ETH while BOOM above 740 USD while most traders kept drawing harmonics and all sorts of short term pattern crap.
Dont believe me? I have linked the idea to LTCUSD vs BTCUSD comparison down below. BTC breakout was at 12.4k when most people thought we will see resistance as we approach 20k. BTC blasted through all these levels.
Beginner basicsHappy Holidays all - 🐣🐥
After writing a few educational posts recently, it has been interesting to see the comments & DM's. Years ago we set out training traders the basics; we called the trades "starbuck bets" the idea was for some people, extra money each week was what they were looking for from trading. For others it was extra money for a daily coffee on the way to the 9-5.
Skip forward several years and now the training has gone mostly online - this is great on one hand, but a nightmare on the other. Where do you go for education? why go with a certain company? How much should you pay? What do I get?
The issue now is although forex is a legitimate instrument there is a lot of people out there, making more from training than they are trading - how do you navigate this? How do you know who is going to teach you what you really need.
In terms of the basics - a great FREE tool is babypips. If you are new to trading, it's well worthwhile going to get to terms with the basics, at your own pace.
Pointers from the pros - some other great resources include sites such as investopedia. Although this is a bit more specific if you are researching an indicator or want to understand more about an instrument and so on.
Obviously, there are some great books available (see related ideas) I posted an idea a few weeks back with 20 books worth a read as a trader.
5 key pointers when starting out
1 - 🐑) Selecting a broker; even before you get here - go read babypips and follow these 5 points. But after that, selecting a broker should include searching for regulated companies, check with the local (per country) regulation authorities such as the FCA in the UK, the SEC in the states. Most countries have lists available for this. If there's no record of the company being regulated then you should treat it as a red flag. To manage money in most countries*** it's a requirement to have some kind of financial license.
2 - 📖) Go read, babypips first and from there take a deeper dive into understanding the market. Read financial articles, stock market books, website tutorials, etc. There's a wealth of information out there and much of it inexpensive to tap even free. It's important not to focus too narrowly on one single aspect of the trading game. Even reading through ideas on tradingview - just don't follow the ideas, you should be doing your own research.
3 - 🎲) Study the basics of technical analysis and look at price charts—thousands of them—in all time frames. And when you think you have done enough, go back and study some more. Get a feel for the character of the instruments you are keen to trade. Again another pro tip - don't go chasing too many pairs, you can make a lot of money on a single tool. So try to spend the time to learn 1-3. Think of this step like learning a language, you wouldn't try to learn Russian, Chinese and Australian (joking about Australian) all at the same time. Treat the charts the same!!!
4 - 🔤) Demo account - Start off with a demo account, try to find one that might offer the same kind of money as the amount you intend on investing. If you have a demo account of say $100,000 but you only intend on trading $1,000 - then I would suggest you open a trade at $10,000 a pip and lose 99% of your account! Then start with $1,000 demo size. Some brokers you can message and they will set this for you. Treat this like a real account, try to make it feel as real as possible - feel the pain, feel the stress and understand the power and value. If you treat a demo 10 times or 100 times more than you plan on trading just as a game - when you invest real money, the market will eat your investment for breakfast!
5 - 🎯) The most important of all of these points - RISK MANAGEMENT If you learn the basics, go through babypips, learn the charts and then use the demo account. The golden rule of trading is pure and simple "proper risk management" you can lose 80% of all of your trades and still be successful. If you learn to obtain a market edge and use statistics then you will have a long-term advantage.
The issue is people come to trade, thinking "traders make money", "trading is easy", "trading is a get rich quick thing" - the issue is over 75% of new traders lose money!
Although this is only covering the basics - I hope this helps. If you need to ask, should I buy or sell - go back to step one, If you don't know how to set a stop loss or even what a stop loss is - go back to step one.
Happy Holidays!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Learn to Read Charts (Stochastic Oscillator & ETH)✅ Ever heard people saying that something is "overbought" or "oversold"?
One of the most famous and powerful tools for this is the Stochastic Oscillator.
This indicator easily shows you if something is overbought or oversold.
✅ What is a Stochastic Oscillator?
A stochastic oscillator is an indicator that compares a specific closing price of an asset to a range of its prices over time – showing momentum and trend strength. It uses a scale of 0 to 100. A reading below 20 generally represents an oversold market and a reading above 80 an overbought market. However, if a strong trend is present, a correction or rally will not necessarily ensue.
✅ To use the stochastic oscillator, it is first important to understand exactly what the readings are showing you.
The stochastic oscillator is a bound oscillator, which means it operates on a scale of zero to 100 – this scale represents an asset’s entire trading range during the 14 days, and the final percentage shows where the most recent closing price sits within the range. This makes it easy to identify overbought and oversold signals. Regardless of how quickly the market price changes, or how the market volume fluctuates, the stochastic oscillator will always move in this range.
✅ If there is a reading over 80, the market would be considered overbought, while a reading under 20 would be considered oversold conditions.
✅ If we continue our previous example, a reading of 93.3% would be considered extremely overbought during the 14-day period. Following stochastic oscillator theory, this implies that a price reversal would be impending. In fact, some people believe that a reading above 90 is extremely risky and warrants the closing of positions.
✅ The most common use of the stochastic oscillator is to identify bullish and bearish divergences – points at which the oscillator and market price show different signals – as these are normally indications that a reversal is imminent. A bullish divergence occurs when the price records a lower low, but the stochastic oscillator forms a higher low. This shows that there is less downward momentum and could indicate a bullish reversal. A bearish divergence forms when the market price reaches higher highs, but the stochastic oscillator forms a lower high – this indicates declining upward momentum and a bearish reversal.
✅ However, it is always important to remember that overbought and oversold readings are not completely accurate indications of a reversal. The stochastic oscillator might show that the market is overbought, but the asset could remain in a strong uptrend if there is sustained buying pressure. This is often seen during market bubbles – periods of increased speculation that cause an asset’s price to reach consistently higher highs.
✅ TradingView lets you use the Stochastic Oscillator for fast and easy forecasting. You can find it in Indicators & Strategies (f(x)) above your chart.
#BTC - FROM TRADE IDEA TO TRADING PLANYesterday i posted a chart on Twitter, where i was expecting a bounce for bitcoin on the 4h timeframe (i'll post this general idea in the comment section). I had no clue about the kind of pattern it was going to form, so i moved to the 15 min chart, because the bounces most of the time are very fast and you need a lower timeframe. I've seen a double bottom, with the second low higher than the first. Then i've seen an harmonic pattern with a bearish divergence on top, so i was expecting a wave down at that point. The perfect entry point in this kind of price action is the 61,8 % of the last wave up. Using that entry point and a stop loss below the double bottom you have a good risk reward trade setup most of the time.
The Lazy Man's Guide To ELLIOTT WAVEElliott Wave Post 2; after writing the first post I have received some questions. So I thought it easier to write a follow-up post here showing some tricks.
To be clear, I am not an Elliottition as a whole, I use it as part of a wider strategy on the monthly and weekly timeframes. But also we have access to an automated Elliott wave tool.
The Elliott wave logic still works today and with a couple of little tricks, you will be able to use to help forecast potential target zones. Elliott can be very subjective and the saying goes "if you ask 10 Elliott wave traders where to plot the waves, you will get 9 different answers" So just like everything else, you need to use it wisely and not rely solely on it.
Again to reiterate - this is not a full-out lesson, there's more to learn on the topic. But these little tips will help you along the way, even to get into the overall concept a little quicker.
Step 1 - if you have this in your mind, you will be able to start the process for an overall measure.
Major rule
Wave 2;
If you can identify a wave 2 but it is less than 50% of wave 1 - be careful as it could create a double bottom (in an uptrend) and dip a little lower before moving up.
with 1 & 2 identified you can start working on estimations for 3.
Knowing wave 3 is usually 1.618 or 2.618 - will give you a good idea of where price is heading. Again you could use things like Stochastic or RSI to assist the directional bias when you feel you have identified the 2.
Let's go all out - let's say we have the perfect setup...
We can also say that a lot of the time, wave 4 is around 38.2% of wave 3 and often no greater than 50% (whereas, wave 2 is often more than 50%)
Then lastly, if we know a potential target for 3 (maybe draw 2 target levels to test) we can use that with 2 levels for the 4 move 382 and 50 as a rule of thumb. You can see what works best for the instrument you are trading. How they play out with backtesting and so on.
It would be great to get some additional comments from traders who use Elliott every day, even from new traders only now getting into Elliott waves. Any additional tips or trips from the pro's for the newer traders?
If you are new to Elliott waves - see the related post below for the basic concept.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
How To Lose Money With CONFUSION (timeframe mixing) The issue for many new traders is understanding the correlation between timeframes. We often get caught up in indicators, news hype, chat room posts, and various other things.
One of the biggest challenges I see when talking to new traders is simply the lack of "experience" in reading multiple timeframes. This causes confusion and even self-doubt. The issue with the internet being so vast is there is a lot of info - but what do you go with & why?
In this post I have tried to "dumb it down" - the simple idea is to pick your timeframes based on your trading style.
Now if work gets in the way and you need to trade end of day or even swing (Longer-term) then really, you shouldn't stress so much about a 15 minute candle. A lot can happen throughout the day. But on the opposite side of the spectrum, if you are sat in front of your screen every minute the market is open. (scalping) then trying to work out what the monthly is doing whilst you hold a trade for an hour is not going to affect your trade (in general).
To give you a great example of this - I trade COT data as it's swing, with Monthly and weekly bias. I will have a mentee say something like "COT is a buy, but the price has dropped". Yes if you're looking at the 4-hour candle. If you think what institutional players can manage in terms of drawdown, especially using hedging techniques. It's far greater than the guy investing £5k of savings into Bitcoin.
If a hedge fund buys Bitcoin at 45k and the price drops to 22.5k - the likelihood is they have a hedged position & will be buying it all back at fair value. Whereas Mr £5k has lost some sleep & half of his capital - bailed, only to see the price shoot back up above his original entry.
You think of someone like Elon Musk - if his entry of a Billion Dollars was at 40k (example) and price drops to 20k, he has a paper loss of 500m for sure, it will hurt. But again if the Tesla share price drops from 800 to 700, he has a paper loss of (say 20 Billion) - a 500m loss on paper is less of a concern. *** You get the picture.
Investors & traders know that things don't just moon! they have dips, impulsive moves and so on.
So take the charts into account - You have an idea of what timeframes to pick based on your own personal availability or your style you have already identified. As a scalper it's easy to use 4 hour or even a 1 hour candle for your bias - a 15minute for a local area of interest & an entry on a 1m - 5m chart. (example only).
If you trade swing trades (depending on the overall time & expectations) a weekly bias, a daily interest and a 4hour trigger could be what you look for.
Here are some examples;
In these examples - all I have done is used 1 tool. This is only to show the idea - If stochastic is up then I want to be Bullish, if down I'll consider Bearish moves. Keep in mind this could be anything from above/below a moving average, a key price level or a magnitude of other things. Even other tools like RSI for example.
Example of step down
The idea is this gives you a directional bias.
Then we look at the area of interest.
And finally - we want to look down on the next timeframe for the trigger (entry)
Traders can easily get confused with one timeframe saying one thing and the next timeframe up or down saying something else. If you can treat it like a tick sheet, you can step down with confidence and work on a strategy favouring your directional bias & that's in confluence with the time period & your expectations.
This really is an oversimplified breakdown. Just to give a general idea.
Have a great week!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
