Dow30 - US30 Faces DownturnBLACKBULL:US30 has returned to a crucial resistance zone, which aligns with a bearish technical setup. After the recent decline, this move back to the resistance suggests that a further drop may be imminent, especially if the index fails to break above this zone. The pattern indicates that TVC:DJI could start its downward trend again following a retest of this level, where sellers are likely to re-enter the market.
Fundamentally, the rising unemployment claims in the U.S. have heightened fears of a recession. With more individuals out of work, consumer spending could slow down, which negatively impacts corporate earnings and the broader economy. This situation could exert additional downward pressure on the Dow Jones, making the possibility of a significant decline more likely as investors brace for potential economic contraction.
D-US30
Futures Rise as Markets Focus on Powell’s Jackson Hole SpeechFutures Climb as Investors Eye Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday, with market participants eagerly awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Investors are looking for hints regarding future interest rate cuts in the world’s largest economy.
Current Technical Outlook:
The price action suggests a potential move towards 41,030 if it can stabilize above 40,860. Conversely, sustained trading below 40,800 may signal the start of a bearish trend.
Bullish Scenario:
If the price holds above 40,850, it could drive gains toward 41,030. Further momentum might extend the rally to 41,345.
Bearish Scenario:
A reversal and stabilization below the pivot line at 40,800 could trigger a bearish trend, with downside targets at 40,480 and 40,320.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 40,850
Resistance Levels: 41030, 41345, 41600
Support Levels: 40660, 40470, 40320
Expected Trading Range Today:
The price is likely to fluctuate between support at 40,320 and resistance at 41,170.
US30 Market breadth EMA50 [INVESTIC]
Introducing the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Market Breadth for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). This tool is designed for traders who want to assess the market’s short- to mid-term momentum with precision. By tracking how many of the 30 Dow Jones stocks are trading above their 50-day EMA, the indicator gives a clear view of market strength or weakness over a moderate timeframe.
Traders may use the indicator to identify and confirm the market's medium-term trends. It strikes a balance between the sensitivity of shorter-term indicators like the 20-day EMA and the long-term perspective of the 200-day EMA. Displayed as a histogram ranging from 0 to 30, this indicator provides a quick and effective way to see how many Dow Jones stocks are maintaining their trends over this mid-range period.
🔶Usage
The 50-day EMA Market Breadth is incredibly versatile, catering to different trading styles. For example:
Intraday Trading:
While the 50-day EMA is more commonly associated with swing or mid-term trading, intraday traders can still use this indicator to confirm the broader market trend, which is crucial for trading with confidence throughout the day.
If the majority of stocks are above their 50-day EMA, it suggests strong underlying momentum. Use this information to support your intraday trades in the direction of the trend. For example, if the histogram shows 20 or more stocks above the 50-day EMA, you might prioritize long positions, knowing that the overall market sentiment is positive. Conversely, if the histogram is low, it may be better to focus on short positions or be more cautious with longs.
Swing Trading:
For swing traders, the 50-day EMA Market Breadth Histogram is a key tool for timing entries and exits within the market's medium-term trends.
You can monitor the histogram regularly to gauge whether the market is supporting your swing trades. If you notice the histogram starting to decline, consider tightening your stop losses or scaling out of positions, as this may signal weakening momentum. Additionally, use the histogram to confirm breakout trades or to stay in trades that are running strong, ensuring that you are aligned with the market’s mid-term direction.
Longer-Term Trading:
Long-term traders can leverage the Market Breadth to gain insights into the market's medium-term health, helping to fine-tune their long-term strategies.
Use the histogram as a barometer for market strength when making decisions about your long-term portfolio. A consistently high histogram suggests a strong mid-term uptrend, which could reinforce your conviction to hold or add to long-term positions. On the other hand, if you see a sustained decline in the histogram, it may be a signal to reassess your portfolio and consider implementing risk management strategies. The indicator can also help you identify potential market lows, when you see the number of stocks on the histogram goes near bottom.
No matter your trading style, the 50-day EMA Market Breadth Indicator offers a comprehensive view of market momentum. By integrating this tool into your daily, weekly, or monthly analysis, you can make more informed decisions that align with the prevailing market trends.
US30 Market breadth EMA20 [INVESTIC]Introducing our Market Breadth Indicator for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), based on the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This tool is designed for traders looking to gauge short-term market sentiment and momentum within the Dow. By tracking how many of the 30 Dow Jones stocks are trading above their 20-day EMA, this indicator offers a quick and precise snapshot of the market’s short-term strength or weakness.
Traders can use this shorter-term market breadth indicator to identify emerging trends, confirm the direction of the market, and make more timely trading decisions. The 20-day EMA provides a more responsive view of market conditions compared to the longer days EMA, making it ideal for traders focused on capturing near-term movements. Displayed as a histogram ranging from 0 to 30, the indicator helps you quickly assess how many Dow Jones stocks are in a bullish or bearish stance over the short term.
🔶Usage
The Market Breadth based on the 20-day EMA is perfect for traders of all styles, from those who thrive on fast-paced intraday action to those with a longer-term view. Here’s how you can apply this indicator in different trading scenarios:
Intraday Trading:
Market Breadth is a powerful tool to spot shifts in momentum throughout the trading day. As the market moves, the histogram will quickly reflect changes in the number of stocks trading above their 20-day EMA, helping you identify potential entry or exit points.
As an example, this tool can be use to find short-term lows or peaks. As the histogram rises above the green zone in the session it may indicate increasing buying pressure, suggesting opportunities for quick long positions from the low.
Also it can help spot potential rebound in the near term, for example, a rising number of stocks while the index declines could signal a quick short-term trades.
Swing Trading:
Swing traders can use the Market Breadth to time trades more effectively within short- to medium-term trends. When the histogram is consistently high, it indicates that the majority of Dow stocks are experiencing short-term uptrends, making it a favorable environment to hold onto positions. However, if the histogram starts to drop, it may be an early warning that the trend is losing strength, prompting you to consider exiting or tightening your stop losses. This indicator helps you stay in tune with the market’s short-term direction, optimizing your swing trade entries and exits.
Longer-Term Trading:
While the 20-day EMA is more commonly associated with short-term analysis, it can still be valuable for longer-term traders who want to keep a pulse on shorter-term market movements. By monitoring the Market Breadth over weeks or months, you can spot when the market is reaching its peak or its low on a shorter timescale.
The 20-day EMA Market Breadth is a versatile tool that provides actionable insights across various trading horizons. Whether you’re looking to capture quick intraday moves, time your swing trades with precision, or keep an eye on short-term trends as part of a longer-term strategy, this indicator is designed to enhance your market analysis and trading decisions.
US30 ( UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE ) - 4H US30
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under upward pressure , until trading above turning level at 40,680
Upward Condition :The price is currently experiencing bullish momentum. As long as it remains above the 40,680 turning level , it is likely to move upward toward the resistance levels of 41,040 and then 41,401.
Downward Condition :To reach the 40,239 support level (1) , the price needs to first break the turning level by closing a 4-hour candle below 40,680. If it stabilizes below support level (1) , a further decline toward the support level (2) at 39,812 can be anticipated .
TARGET UPWARD ZONE :
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 41,040 .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 41,401 .
TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE :
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 40,239 .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 39,812 .
TURNING LEVEL : 40,680 .
Could price reverse from here?Dow Jones (US30) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could revers to the 23.6% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 41,036.40
1st Support: 40,643.17
1st Resistance: 41,405.66
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Fed Minutes & Jackson Hole Speech Set Stage for Market Movement
Market Outlook:
Minutes from the Fed's July policy meeting are due later today, followed by Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday. Market participants expect Powell to hint at a potential rate cut in September, though any emphasis on persistent inflation could dampen investor sentiment. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is currently a 69.5% probability of a 25 basis-point cut and a 30.5% chance of a more aggressive 50 basis-point reduction.
Current Technical Outlook:
The trend suggests a potential upward movement as long as the price stays above 40,800. The market is expected to consolidate between 41,030 and 40,850 until a breakout occurs.
Bullish Scenario:
If the price trades above 40,850, it could drive an increase toward 41,030, with further gains potentially leading to 41,345.
Bearish Scenario:
Should the price reverse and stabilize below the pivot line at 40,800, a bearish trend may emerge, targeting 40,480 and 40,320.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 40860
Resistance Lines: 41030, 41345, 41600
Support Lines: 40700, 40500, 40330
Expected Trading Range Today:
The price is likely to fluctuate between support at 40800 and resistance at 41130.
Trend: Upward movement.
DJIA H4 | Heading into swing-high resistanceDJIA (US30) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 41,032.64 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 41,523.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance at the all-time high.
Take profit is at 40,417.18 which is a pullback support.
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DOW JONES Don't lose sight of the great picture. Still bullish.Last week, while Dow Jones (DJI) was still under its 1D MA50, we called for a major rally, as technically the 5-month Channel Up has just priced its new Higher Low:
The index has now almost reached the Target of the first Bullish Leg of this pattern, pointing to a potential relief next.
On the larger picture however (1M time-frame), we had posted an article named 'Secret Cycles' on April 12 2024 (see chart below), during Dow Jones' previous pull-back that again inflicted fear in the markets, calling for a strong buy:
It is this chart that we revisit and expand up today, as we don't think the long-term trend has changed. We want to maintain a clear long-term perspective and following August's massive recovery 1M candle, we believe that Dow will enter by Q4 2024, the final stage (rally) of its current Cycle.
That has historically been 1 year at least, so as long as the index keeps holding and closing the monthly candles above the 1M MA50 (red trend-line), we will continue buying all monthly dips. Our 48850 long-term Target is intact.
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Equities Climb Ahead of Earnings and Jackson Hole SymposiumEquities Rise as Traders Await This Week's Earnings, Jackson Hole Symposium
Current Outlook:
The trend suggests a potential upward movement as long as the price stays above 40,800. However, consolidation is expected between 41,030 and 40,800 until a breakout occurs.
Bullish Scenario:
Trading above 40800 will likely support a rise towards 41030 and above it will get 41340.
Bearish Scenario:
If the price reverses and stabilizes below the pivot line at 40800, a bearish trend may develop, targeting 40480 and 40320.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 40800
- Resistance Levels: 41030, 41340, 41600
- Support Levels: 40650, 40480, 40320
Today's Expected Trading Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between support at 40800 and resistance at 41130.
Tendency: Upward Movement
US30 Will Go Higher From Support! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for US30.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 40,911.45.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 42,000.59 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Additional rebound in US30 remains possible
US30 is showing a continuous uptrend as expectations for the US economy arise, along with the anticipation that Chairman Powell may provide clues about rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting. Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month recession probability for the US economy from 25% to 20% following the release of July retail sales and jobless claims data.
The current market consensus is that the August employment report will determine future US30 price movements. Morgan Stanley stressed that the report's outcome will be the real test for the market, warning that a report showing weak employment would reignite growth concerns.
US30 quickly breached EMAs and continued its uptrend, rising above the trendline. The index needs an additional price trigger to retest its highs, but the current positive trend is expected to continue for the time being.
If US30 sustains support above the trendline, the index may gain upward momentum toward the 41500 high. Conversely, if US30 is pushed below the trendline and fails to hold above EMAs, the price may break the 39300 support and fall further to the 38000 level.
Dow jones Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 40050 zone, Dow Jones is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 40050 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
US30 SingalUS30 Analysis - Daily
In this analysis, we are anticipating the formation of a Head and Shoulders pattern. Based on this pattern:
Sell Entry Point: A sell signal has been triggered near the neckline and resistance area. If the neckline breaks downward, a significant bearish move is expected.
Buy Entry Point: If the price bounces off the identified support area below and fails to break down, a buy signal will be activated. In this scenario, the market could move towards higher targets.
Overall, we expect a continuation of the bearish move if the neckline is broken, but if not, a potential reversal to the upside is likely.