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D-US30

US30 STILL VERY BULLISH (buys from 38500.0 back up)US30 continues to appear bullish to me, and I anticipate a temporary retracement to eventually mitigate the daily demand zone I've identified. Within this zone, there's also an Asian low that I expect to be taken out through a spring from a Wyckoff accumulation. Once this occurs, price would have reached the refined 10-hour demand zone, where I plan to enter buy positions, potentially leading to a new bullish rally and the creation of new highs. However, I'll be keeping an eye on NFP Friday to see its impact on the Dow Jones, which promises to be interesting! Confluences for US30 sells are as follows: - Price has formed a daily demand zone that could cause another bullish rally for us30. - Trend line liquidity forming just before the demand which I see as a trap for early buyers. - Liquidity to the upside still left and overall market trend is very bullish. - Price has broken structure the upside on the higher time frame confirming trend. P.S. Should price opt to breach the entire daily demand zone during NFP week to eliminate the liquidity beneath it, I anticipate a temporary bearish sentiment, given that it would have violated significant downside structure. HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AND BE CAUTIOUS OF NFP FRIDAY!
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Hassan_fx
2
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Records are there for breaking After a quiet start to the week in markets, Friday’s US session saw risk come alive. A poor US ISM manufacturing at 47.8 – notable in the new orders and employment sub-components – was married with comments from Fed members Lorie Logan and Chris Waller, in turn promoting a strong rally in US Treasuries, with additional rate cuts being priced through 2024. The result was new all-time highs in the US500, US30 and NAS100, with the US2000 eyeing a key breakout of its longer-term range high. New US equity highs backed new highs seen in the AUS200, JPN225 and EU Stoxx and GER40. Gold also got huge attention from clients, rallying 1.9% to set at a new closing high, and we’ve seen many in our alt-crypto offering (notably Bitcoin cash) ripping. We’ll see if the feel-good factor lasts, but I find it interesting that equity and risky assets rallied despite seeing poor US data – where it’s easy to argue that poor data that increases economic slowdown risk, could have prompted risk aversion. So, while we can also point to Fed chatter, it seems in this case bad economic data was good for risk, with the overriding factor being increased rate cut expectations. We’ll see if that same reaction is seen in the outcome of the US ISM services print and the various labour market readings, as these will be the key cross-asset drivers this week. Powell’s testimony to Congress will also get a look-in from traders and we know if he wants to move market pricing he can. The ECB and BoC meeting and the China NPC meeting will get good attention but will play second fiddle to the US data. The poor market internals in equity may be an amber warning sign to some, but market internals and breadth have offered no profitable signal for a while - pullbacks remain shallow and there is a hunt to go hard on risk. There is plenty to navigate this week but for now, the price action shows that the bulls are very much in control. Long equity hedged with gold exposures seems the play, and looking at the charts on the higher timeframes it feels like the path of least resistance being onwards and upwards. Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: The key risk events for markets this week – China NPC meeting, ECB meeting, Jay Powell’s testimony to Congress & US nonfarm payrolls. Monday Switzerland CPI (18:30 AEDT) – the market looks for CHF headline CPI to print 1.1% yoy (from 1.3%) and core CPI at 1% (from 1.2%). The CHF swaps market prices a 25bp cut at the Swiss National Bank (SNB) meeting on 21 March at 70%, so a weaker than expected CPI print should see the market push that implied to c.90%, suggesting the SNB could lead G10 central banks in the sequencing of policy easing. As a result the CHF could become a consensus short from hedge funds. Look for XAUCHF to rally hard on a weak CPI number. Tuesday   US ISM Services Index (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for the services index to print 53.0 (from 53.4). Given the moves in risky assets (equity, credit) and gold post last week’s ISM manufacturing this data point could drive market volatility. A print below 51.0 would be a surprise and promote further upside in XAUUSD, with the market putting notable attention on the new orders and unemployment components of the survey. Japan (Feb) Tokyo CPI (10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for JP headline CPI to print 2.5% (from 1.6%) and CPI ex-food and energy unchanged at 3.1%. After last week’s upside surprise in the JP national CPI print, and the upside move in 2-year JGB yields to 0.19% (the highest level since May 2011), the market will watch this one closely and an upside surprise could see JPY shorts cover. BoJ Gov Ueda speaks at a fintech summit (15:00 AEDT) – after speaking last week at the G20 meeting and his comments considered dovish, we’ll see if this is the forum for a change in Ueda’s stance. ‘Super Tuesday’ – the biggest day in the primaries calendar, with some 15 states voting to nominate their choice of Presidential nominee. Given Trump’s result in South Carolina, it seems a done deal that he will get the REP nomination, so it's hard to see Super Tuesday as a market event. China 14th National People Conference – the market will learn of the government’s economic targets for 2024 and what they are aiming for GDP, inflation, unemployment, and the deficit. We should see officials target growth of “around 5%” but it is feasible they aim for more. Wednesday US JOLTS job openings (Thursday 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for 8.89m job openings (from 9.026m) – Traders with long positions in equity and gold and USD shorts will want to see a weaker print vs consensus expectations. Australia Q4 GDP (11:30 AEDT) – the market looks for Q4 GDP of 0.3% QoQ / 1.4% YoY (from 2.1%), but expectations will be massaged as we get the partials (inventory, company profits, net exports as a percentage of GDP). Can’t see this being a mover of the AUD to any great degree, so would have limited concerns about holding AUD positions over this data point. UK Budget (23:30 AEDT / 12:30 local) – Rishi Sunak needs Jeremy Hunt to pull a rabbit out of a hat to get voter momentum into the UK election - but one questions if this budget moves the dial on voting intentions and impacts the UK bond market, and by extension the GBP? Recent media suggests the chance of a major fiscal boost from the budget has been reduced - see my colleague Michael Brown's preview here - pepperstone.com Bank of Canada meeting (Thursday 01:45 AEDT) – the BoC won’t move on policy and will almost certainly keep rates at 5%. Given the recent downside surprise in December GDP (1.1% YoY) and January CPI print (of 2.9%) we could get stronger guidance on future easing. CAD swaps price 85bp of cuts (or just over three 25bp cuts) by December, so the move in the CAD will come as traders reconcile the tone of the statement with this pricing. Thursday Fed chair Jay Powell testifies to Congress (Friday 02:00 AEDT) – Jay Powell’s testimony will garner big attention from the market, where most see Powell offering a balanced/neutral view of economic risk and policy – this is his last formal forum to speak before the 20 March Fed meeting, in which some feel some risk of a risk of a hawkish pivot. China trade data (no set time) – a hard one to react to given there is no set time for the release – the market looks for exports to increase by 3% and imports by 1.5%. A larger import number could boost currencies such as the AUD, NZD, and CLP. Japan labour cash earnings (10:30 AEDT) – while we look ahead at Japan’s spring wage negotiations, the market looks for cash earnings of 1.3%, which suggests real wages of -1.4% Mexico CPI (23:00 AEDT) – the market looks for headline CPI at 4.43% (from 4.88%) and core CPI at 4.62% (from 4.76%). Given recent economics, the prospect of a 25bp cut in the 21 March Banxico meeting looks likely, and the CPI print could reinforce that belief. Conversely, an upside surprise could see USDMXN break 16.9924 support and offer a larger downside move to 16.8000. ECB meeting (Friday 00:15 AEDT) – the ECB are not expected to ease until June, so the statement and Christine Lagarde’s speech will most likely reflect the market’s central view. The bar seems high for the ECB to open the door to an April cut at this meeting, and Lagarde’s commentary may point to a “few month months” of data before they ease. The ECB’s updated economic projections, while likely to be downgraded, will still not be poor enough to suggest increased urgency to normalize. Unless we get a big surprise from the ECB, I’d be looking to fade moves in EURUSD into a 1.0920 to 1.0760 range this week. Friday US nonfarm payrolls (Sat 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for moderation from the blowout January report, where the consensus sits at a healthy 200k jobs created in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7%, with average hourly earnings growing 4.3% yoy (from 4.5%). NFPs is the marquee event risk of the week, but forging a playbook is not clear cut – One questions if a rise in the U/E rate lifts risky assets as bond yields fall (rate cut expectations increase), or whether this outcome promotes risk aversion as traders consider the negative implications on economics. The USD will hold the cleanest read on the review of the data. Canada employment report (Sat 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for 20k jobs created and a tick up in the U/E rate to 5.8%. International Women’s Day Saturday China CPI/PPI (12:30 AEDT) – the market sees CPI increasing by 0.2%, which would mark the first positive read after four months of falling consumer prices (month-on-month). PPI is eyed -2.6%. The trader’s concern here is around whether this offers any gapping risk for China assets, or its proxies (AUD, NZD, CLP etc) – I would argue it doesn’t. US earnings – Target, Marvell Technology, Costco, Broadcom Full Fed speaker line-up for the week
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Pepperstone
1
DOWJONES - Buy Zone!Hi there! I'm a buyer on the DOW JONES: -RMID (Range Manipulation Initiation Distribution) -We have liquidity uptake. -We're in an interesting zone. -We have the optimal Fibonacci. -We have accumulation before/on the zone. -We're in the trend. Let's not forget that we also have good profit results from companies, and we have Nvidia's report coming up, which looks very promising! 🚀 If you liked it and want more, don't hesitate to subscribe and boost the post! Questions? Leave a comment!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by KizzFrance
US30 Is Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for US30. Time Frame:8h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 38818.55. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 39218.35 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by SignalProvider
2
DOW JONES (US30) Trend Following Setup Explained Dow Jones Index is currently retesting a recently broken horizontal resistance. Because the trend in strongly bullish, a buying wave may initiate from the underlined blue area. Our confirmation will be a bullish breakout - 4H candle close above a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern. A bullish continuation will be anticipated to 39080 / 39200 levels then. If the price drops and sets a new lower low, the setup will become invalid. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by VasilyTrader
4
DOWJONES - Buy Zone!Hi there! I'm a buyer on the DOW JONES: -RMID (Range Manipulation Initiation Distribution) -We have liquidity uptake. -We're in an interesting zone. -We have the optimal Fibonacci. -We have accumulation before/on the zone. -We're in the trend. Let's not forget that we also have good profit results from companies, and we have Nvidia's report coming up, which looks very promising! 🚀 If you liked it and want more, don't hesitate to subscribe and boost the post! Questions? Leave a comment!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by KizzFrance
GBPJPY - GJ 1hrPull back! SELL Now ! 80+ pips on GJ GBPJPY has made a clean red candle below the support. Now that GJ has retested support and rejected it with a nice red candle we can take sell entries. Watch as GJ is near the weekly resistance . This zone has also been confirmed, so we can see a rejection to test previous support areas tp 1: 4hr and daily support tp 2: 3.82 fib tp 3: D1 support, if GJ breaks below this area look to continue selling *stop loss can be increased. please use proper risk to reward
Short
by nikdobii
US30 Intra-Week Analysis Feb 27th, 2024We ended last week in a consolidation zone just after creating another All-Time-High slightly under 39300. We've had a slow start to this week regarding volume, but price has now broken below this demand zone, potentially making its way to test 38800. If we break below 38800 expect price to continue down to 38500 or even 38200. Our main bias on the other hand would be price tests 38800, while showing signs of rejection before returning to 39000.
CAPITALCOM:US30
by Itskaleel
XAUUSD - GOLD 1hrSimple trading - Gold is holding for its life below the 2040 Level. Let's wait for more candles to close before committing to a buy. Gold is bearish on the higher time frames. Keep in mind the Daily triangle that has previously been broken and is now retesting. (see previous gold chart) BULLS: watch the lower blue trend line. If gold can keep rejecting the trend line and continue making higher highs it will break through the 1hr resistance. * wait for a retest! Do not get faked out by one bullish candle BEARS: Watch the higher orange trend line. Use this line to grab entries. You can see the bearish signals on the chart. pay attention to the close of the next candles. *wait for a solid red rejection candle below the previous high
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by nikdobii
DOW JONES Very clear bearish signal.Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the the 1.5 year Channel Up, while flashing a very unique medium-term sell signal. That is the 1W MACD Histogram, which is declining, a Bearish Divergence that during that period of time, has initiated 3 declines of more than -9% each. Given the fact that the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up has extended to almost 21.9%, which is almost as high as the October - December 2022 sequence, we are expecting a medium-term correction back to at least the middle of the Channel Up. Target is 37120 (Support 1) and if a 1W candle closes below the middle, we expect a bottom around the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) at 36000 (Support 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by TradingShot
3
DOWJONES - Buy Zone!Hi there! I'm a buyer on the DOW JONES: -RMID (Range Manipulation Initiation Distribution) -We have liquidity uptake. -We're in an interesting zone. -We have the optimal Fibonacci. -We have accumulation before/on the zone. -We're in the trend. Let's not forget that we also have good profit results from companies, and we have Nvidia's report coming up, which looks very promising! 🚀 If you liked it and want more, don't hesitate to subscribe and boost the post! Questions? Leave a comment!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by KizzFrance
US30 DOW JONES Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe US30 has enjoyed a robust bullish run, but recent price action on the 1D and 4H charts indicates potential weakness. I'm anticipating a **sell opportunity** should we observe a decisive break below the current range low, followed by a retest and failure of that level. Potential targets for this trade would align with prior 1D accumulation range highs. Remember that trading carries inherent risk. Before executing any trades, it's vital to conduct your own extensive research. Consider both fundamental market drivers and global macroeconomic conditions alongside your technical analysis. Always implement sound risk management practices to safeguard your investment. **Disclaimer**: This analysis presents a technical viewpoint on the US30. It should not be interpreted as investment advice. Base your trading decisions on your own risk profile, comprehensive market research, and a thorough assessment of all relevant variables.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by tradingwithanthony
US30/USD Longs from 38600.0My bias remains strongly bullish for US30 this week. We've witnessed another significant break in structure to the upside, accompanied by robust bullish momentum, reinforcing the prevailing trend. I anticipate a retracement back to a demand level to sustain this upward movement. Upon reaching the daily demand zone, I'm eyeing a refined 10-hour demand zone for a potential bullish reaction. Additionally, I'll be on the lookout for a Wyckoff accumulation pattern within this area My confluences for US30 Buys are as follows: - Price broke structure to the upside once again leaving a clean daily demand. - Overall trend and the current trend remain to be very bullish. - Candlestick anatomy also shows that bulls remain stronger than bears. - Can expect a pullback to mitigate the levels of demand. - Wick left to the upside that needs to get filled and price has been moving impulsively. P.S. We observed a minor sell-off two weeks ago, followed by a resurgence that breached the previous high. Currently, I'm not actively seeking selling opportunities. However, I wouldn't be surprised if price establishes a supply zone, offering a chance to sell back towards the marked demand zone.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Hassan_fx