US100 16868.6 +0.4% IDEA AHEAD OF THE CPIGOOD DAY TRADER
Hope everyone is great a look at the NASDAQ, S&P 500 & US30 ahead of HIGH IMPACT NEWS TODAY.
* Its been a bullish week for all the above mentioned indices alike as we see a rejection on the weekly time-frame.
AS WE SCALE LOWER TO THE DAILY TIME-FRAME
* We swept those historic highs and rejected back into the range.
NASDAQ DAILY
* The NASDAQ tested the 50% FIB as we see a rally up
* Continuation is possible just as a possibility of sweeping the high.
S&P 500 DAILY
Same as NASDAQ we see the same setup on the US500
DOW JONES DAILY
* THE DOW is highly bullish this bring some interest Ahead of CPI.
* Traded Above the hostoric highs and kept there range bound for a some weeks.
* It will be interesting to see a push higher here but anticipating some reversals.
* With some projections there is still room above we see -2 projection and -4 projection yet to be tested.
A JUMP TO THE HOURLY TIME FRAMES
NASDAQ 1H T/F
* Beautiful bullish trend
* On high alert for signs of momentum shift but we remain strongly Bullish.
* We do see a cisd but this alone is not enough. awaiting more confirmations.
* THE SAME WITH THE S&P 500
US 30 1H
* Some bearish momentum coming into play.
* premature to decide ahead of high impact news but it would be great to see some reversal before continuation with the trend.
* LIKE I MENTIONED AWAITING TO SEE SOME SORT OF REVERSALS ON THE INDICES BUT IF CONTINUE BULLISH WE RIDE THE TREND
*** TRADING HIGH IMPACT NEWS IS HIGHLY RISK AS THE VOLITILITY IS CRAZY THIS IS NOT ADVISE TO EXCECUTE DURING THIS HIGH IMPACT NEWS***
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOURS BELOW🛑
lets see how it goes.
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LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
D-US30
Dow Jones H4 | Potential bullish breakoutDow Jones (US30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially break above this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 37,871.59 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 37,350.00 which is a level that sits under a pullback support.
Take profit is at 38,256.87 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
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BTC EFT Update and US30 Analysis. Today's focus: US30
Pattern – Consolidation / ascending triangle pattern.
Support – 37,400
Resistance – 37,770
Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update.
Crypto had a mainly higher but, in some cases, muted response to news that BTC ETFs will become a reality. We have run over some of the news and moves since yesterday.
The US30 is today's chart, and we are seeing a similar situation to what we discussed in yesterday's ETH update. ETH was one of the better-performing majors after the news hit yesterday.
The US30 sits in a continuation pattern that's inside a consolidation pattern. Buyer momentum remains firm today after yesterday's rally, and we are looking at tonight's CPI data. If CPI remains unchanged or surprises the downside, we will look for further upside on the US30. If it comes in hotter than expected, this could turn the price lower from resistance or above, depending on where price is later tonight.
US CPI data is due at 12:30 am ADET Friday.
Good trading.
Market Breakdown: EURUSD, EURJPY, BTCUSD, US30
1️⃣ EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
The pair is currently stuck within a narrow intraday horizontal trading range.
We are expecting the US inflation data tomorrow and for the market participants
it will be the important trigger.
Monitor the reaction of the price to the boundaries of the range and look for a confirmation.
That will be your signal.
2️⃣ EURJPY daily time frame 🇪🇺🇯🇵
The market is currently breaking a solid daily supply area.
If the price breaks and closes above that on a daily, it will be a strong bullish signal.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated to 161.0 level then.
3️⃣ BITCOIN weekly time frame ₿
BTC nicely respected a major weekly structure resistance.
After its test, we see a strong bearish reaction.
I would anticipate a continuation of a correction for now.
4️⃣ Dow Jones weekly time frame
The market set a new historic high before it closed on Christmas holidays.
Now it looks quite overbought.
I would recommend waiting for a pullback to one of the underlined supports.
They can provide perfect points to buy the index from.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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📉📆 US30 Daily Rejection: Targeting 37161 Test 🎯🔻💥I have noticed that the RSI indicator on US30 is at 69.1 and has been consistently decreasing. This indicates that there is a strong possibility that US30 will start to experience a decline in its value. It is not surprising to see this bearish trend, as other commodities have also been showing similar signals. Based on my analysis, I predict that US30 will initially reach a value of 37161 before continuing to drop further.
📈💥 US30 Super Bullish: Rally Set to Climb Even Higher! 🚀📈🎯US30 right now is not showing any indication of slowing down at any moment. All technicals point to it doing higher highs from here. It is one of the best instruments to hold in the portfolio at the moment.
We can see the RSI staying well above 50 and 61.8, which shows that it is still strong in the bullish region. Every red candle is a buy opportunity as it seems.
Crude oil and BTC has also shown sign of bullish solid signal which is a strong indication of a healthy market.
US30 SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello,Friends!
We are now examining the US30 pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 33337 level.
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DOW JONES Correction has started. Where can it stop?Dow Jones (DJI) started a strong decline since our December 29 2023 sell call (see chart below), the strongest since the remarkable rally started on the October 29 bottom:
On today's analysis, we want to look into the same market dynamics and the pattern we drew 10 days ago but this time on the 1D time-frame. What stands out the most is that this time on the January 02 2024 High, the RSI peak that was made a few days back on December 19 2023 (hence the Bearish Divergence) was a (much) Higher High that the previous two (red arrows down) on the Higher Highs trend-line (July 26 2023 and April 13 2023), that was made on the vastly overbought level of 87.50 (highest since January 11 2018).
Our short-term target remains 36750, which represents the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Jan 02 High. The other feature on this 1D chart that stands out is the 38.50 1D RSI Support, which provided rebounds on May 25 2023 (long-term) and August 24 2023 (short-term). That RSI Support reveals where our first buy attempt should be. Price-wise that could be as low was the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (35100) of the October 27 Low. By the time it potentially makes contact with it, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) could be there as well.
A medium-term candidate is also a -4.50% range from the Jan 02 High, which would give us 36150 and is where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is headed right now.
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US30Late trigger but it was amazing forecast and mid analysis.
Here we are now looking to scale in and do more. Move SL into profits we do not run a non profit.
37600 - 37630 (Area of significance)
- bounce and rejection, with candlestick confirmation is a move up
- impulsive candlesticks down and rejection means we are drowning price again.
A Traders’ Playbook – Let the good times roll Just when you start to sense that risky assets (such as equity) may head into a more prolonged drawdown, with various Fed members talking about easier financial conditions subtracting the need to lower rates, we see a solid rally in the NAS100, US500 and US2000.
The NAS100 had its best day since 14 Nov, as tech led the way courtesy of Nvidia’s new product launch, with new graphic cards that can lead the way in AI PCs. Tech aside, the rally was broad-based, with 84% of stocks closing higher and energy the only sector closing lower.
Long NAS100 / short US30 is a trade that I see as having further juice, with Boeing subtracting 132p from the US30 alone. Either way, new equity highs seem to be the more likely risk here.
Further tailwinds for risk appreciation have come from a NY Fed 1- and 3-year inflation survey which showed further moderation, while Fed member Bostic detailed he thought inflation had come down more than expected. Crude prices falling 3.8% and an 8.6% fall in EU Nat Gas prices seem to be giving risk a kick, as are the modest falls in US nominal and real yields too.
As always, we try and justify a move in markets after the fact, but it’s the flows that count and that we trade, and price action suggests weak shorts have covered, with the bull’s regaining composure.
Can it last? Well, one suspects that comes down to the outcome of this week's US CPI data and while much of the macro discussion has swung on the future of balance sheet runoff (‘QT’), those long equity/short USDs will need to see further downside momentum in core CPI and going someway to justifying the 25bp cut priced for March and 142bp of cuts priced for the year.
As we see below the event risk heats up this week, with CPI prints all over the shop and China’s data flow and credit stats also a factor. US earnings kick into gear with the banks giving us insights into their asset quality and credit trends. Bitcoin is already flying high as the market is firmly of the view the SEC give its blessing for the cash ETF, and there is no signs that the market is ready to sell the fact just yet.
We also start to focus on political issues although whether the market trades these themes is another factor. Next week we get the Taiwan elections and that could have implications for USDTWD. We also start the proceedings in the US election with the Iowa caucus, although most are looking more at the Primary in New Hampshire (23 Jan) with Nicki Haley polling quite well in that state. And so it starts….
Good luck to all.
Key marquee event risks to navigate:
Tokyo CPI (9 Jan 10:030 AEDT) – the market eyes 2.5% yoy on headline CPI (from 2.6%) and 3.5% on core (3.6%). The Tokyo CPI print leads the national CPI numbers, so they could influence BoJ expectations and by extension the JPY.
Aus monthly CPI (10 Jan – 11:30 AEDT) – the market eyes the monthly CPI print at 4.5% (from 4.9%). The monthly print comes before the all-important Q4 CPI print on 31 Jan. Aussie interest rate futures price a cut in May at 25%, with 43bp of cuts priced by Dec 2024. AUDUSD looks supported by the rally in US equities, although to get the pair firing through 0.6750 we may need to see a reversal higher in Chinese/HK equity markets.
BoE gov Bailey testifies to parliament (11 Oct 01:15 AEDT)
ECB member Schnabel speaks (11 Jan 01:00 AEDT) – EU swaps price a 25bp cut in the March ECB meeting at 50% - EURGBP is on the radar with momentum skewing the cross to lower levels and potentially a re-test of 0.8540.
Fed speakers - NY Fed member John Williams offers his 2024 economic outlook (11 Jan 07:15 AEDT)
US CPI (12 Jan 00:30 AEDT) – this is the marquee event risk for the week so watch exposures over this key data point. The market looks for headline CPI at 0.2% mom / 3.2% yoy (from 3.1%) and core CPI at 0.3% mom / 3.8% yoy (from 4%). US swaps price a 25bp cut in the March FOMC at 69%, with 140bp of easing by Dec 2024 – this pricing will come into review on the CPI print, and by extension, the USD and equity markets will move in sympathy.
China's new yuan loans and aggregate financing (no set time or date this week) – the market looks for a small lift in new yuan loans to RMB1350b. There is a growing view that credit will soon increase as banks ease borrowing costs, but is there a demand for cheaper credit?
China CPI/PPI (12 Jan 12:30 AEDT) – the market looks for China’s CPI to come in at -0.4% yoy, and PPI -2.6% yoy. We see the Chinese bond rallying strongly with 10yr govt bond yields at multiyear lows, suggesting a market high on easing PBOC easing expectations – A weak CPI print should only increase expectations of a RRR cut.
China trade balance (12 Jan – no set time) – this can be a notoriously hard data point to price risk around given the outcome is typically someway off the median consensus estimates. As it stands the view is we see a 1.6% rebound in exports, and 0% growth in imports. The HK50, CHINAH and CN50 could be sensitive to the outcome of this print and traders will want to see a solid rebound to initiate longs.
Other CPI prints – Mexico (9 Jan 23:00 AEDT), Columbia (10 Jan 10:00 AEDT), Norway (10 Jan 18:00 AEDT)
Other key events to navigate:
• Crypto traders - The SEC deadline on Bitcoin cash ETF (10 Jan – no set time)
• US bond auctions - 3YR Treasury ($52B - 10 Jan 05:00 AEDT), US 10YR ( FWB:37B – 11 Jan 05:00 AEDT), 30YR ($21b – 05:00 AEDT)
• US banks earnings due out on Friday - Blackrock, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi
US30 Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for US30.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 37428.22.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 37117.43 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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US30This big boys came to play with NFP but was equally sorted out without regret.
4H
-Serious Doji
- Hanging man as the closing candle
* Evening Star
1H
* 3 touches on either side of the channel
* Bearish channel confirmation
* Rection and close under 37500
- 37400 can be the next resting place
- 37300 is the next significant level should it fall
15Min
- Price in a squeeze, we should be expecting a breakout next (one that will be very impulsive)
- 37327 area around where double/triple bottom happened
- 37520 break = Shoot up (bullish momentum)
DXY SELLS THIS WEEKHello Traders, so here's the weekly update of the financial markets. DXY filled the weekly FVG by market close last week and rejected. So what we expect this week is BEARS putting in lots of SELLING PRESSURE. Probably this week we shall see a BEARISH CANDLE on the Greenback. Onto GOLD ,with the above information, I expect it to remain BULLISH alongside other Major Currencies, Indices & Crypto; EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD & US30. This coming week, look for opportunities to place BUY orders on these financial instruments. DXY may SELL till the recent swing low where Buyside Liquidity awaits, use this as a monitor for your Buy Trades on the above mentioned instruments. Good Week ahead full of profits.
DXY BEARISH THIS WEEKHello Traders, so here's the weekly update of the financial markets. DXY filled the weekly FVG by market close last week and rejected. So what we expect this week is BEARS putting in lots of SELLING PRESSURE. Probably this week we shall see a BEARISH CANDLE on the Greenback. Onto GOLD,with the above information, I expect it to remain BULLISH alongside other Major Currencies, Indices & Crypto; EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD & US30. This coming week, look for opportunities to place BUY orders on these financial instruments. DXY may SELL till the recent swing low where Buyside Liquidity awaits, use this as a monitor for your Buy Trades on the above mentioned instruments. Good Week ahead full of profits.
US30USD Longs from 36700.0 back upwards.he current situation for US30 lacks interest as price has already cleared a significant portion of the supply, resulting in a bearish move to eliminate remaining trendline liquidity. Currently, I am patiently waiting for a new break of structure to occur and the formation of a fresh supply zone. This will provide an opportunity to initiate sell positions targeting my Demand zone POI at 36700.
Alternatively, if a break of structure doesn't materialize, I'll look for price to descend, fill the imbalance, and accumulate around my 4hr demand zone. From this point, I anticipate a new upward rally, allowing for potential buy entries in line with the bullish trend.
Confluences for US30 Buys are as follows:
- Bullish pressure weakens, evident in a CHOCH and confirmed by a BOS
- A demand zone below triggered a break of structure to the upside.
- The market trend is bullish, aligning with this idea.
- Imbalance above the demand signals favourable reaction at my POI.
- Abundant liquidity above, including trend lines and untouched Asian highs.
- Price needs to dip to a significant demand level for an upward rally to persist.
P.S.If price doesn't reach that low, I'll patiently await another upside break, leaving behind a demand zone for potential buys. Currently, my primary point of interest is at 36700.0, so observing price action at this moment is preferable.
Hope everyone has a profitable first month!
US30 BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
US30 uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 33334 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the US30 pair.
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DOW JONES - Incoming Global Crash - Larger Degree Wave 4...In this video, I elaborate on my anticipation of a significant downturn in global markets and discuss how it might usher in a new era in the financial system. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), central banks have consistently deferred addressing underlying issues, but it seems we have reached the end of that road. The only viable path forward appears to be allowing the market to undergo a proper correction, facilitating the potential for renewed growth in the future. Exploring the emerging landscape, it will be intriguing to observe the shape of the new financial system, especially with the emergence of technologies that could form its foundation. My comprehension of market trends and waves has played a crucial role in leading me to this conclusion after years of dedicated research.
US30 Technical analysis for 05 Jan 2024Technical analysis saying that the strong trend up ( but ) the prices reached to very strong resistance at the upper channel line, and the expected scenario now to start the correction down from the current prices ( 37,500 ) to ( 37,055 ) especially with the news coming from US today ( NFP )
Note : All eyes will now be on Friday's government jobs report .