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D-US30

A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: The last hoorah We roll past a huge week of event risk, and you can’t beat a surprisingly dovish-interpreted turn from the Fed to get risk pumping in markets – but that is what we saw, and it affected our trading environment greatly. Perhaps things had gone too far with NY Fed President John Williams stepping in on Friday and pushing back, detailing it was “premature” to think about rate cuts right now. In a world where communication with markets is critically important, these comments seem highly orchestrated and designed purely to stop financial conditions from getting too euphoric. Fine, the market is convinced inflation is moving towards target in 2024, but the last thing any central bank want now is to destabilise inflation and growth expectations and see demand rise ahead of a cutting cycle, amid a renewed wealth effect. That would not be in the market script for 2024. With US 2yr Treasury bond yields falling close to 30bp on the week, and DM rates rallying in a similar fashion – the USD falling 1.3%, and US growth expectations being revised higher (the Atlanta Fed Nowcast model has US Q4 GDP running at 2.61%), this is goldilocks at its finest. The wash-up was the US500 gaining for 7 straight weeks, and we question if we can we see an 8th? The US2000 gained an impressive 5.6% wow, with the NAS100 and US30 closing at ATHs. The ASX 200 even came onto the momentum radar, recording a weekly rise of 3.4%. It’s rare to see the Aussie equity market get such a working out from momentum accounts, but the index is in beast mode and recorded its second-best week of the year. In the FX world, the NOK shone bright after the surprise 25bps hike from the Norges Bank, gaining 4.3% vs the USD - NOKSEK longs (or EURNOK shorts) look compelling, having printed a solid bullish outside week. With EUR PMIs reinforcing the headwinds faced in Europe, I am also skewed short of EURAUD, and while the RBA minutes this week should reinforce a relatively hawkish RBA, the AUD needs follow-through gains in Chinese equities. As we look at the event risk this week, we see the BoJ meeting, US core PCE inflation and UK CPI as the big-ticket items for traders to navigate. On balance, unless the BoJ really surprises the market, it feels a stretch to see these derail the risk story in any great capacity - so the question will be whether traders start to close their books, reduce exposures and lock in returns. Or is there one last push left in risky assets? John Williams’s comments have modestly dampened spirits and may be enough for a short-term reprieve to the bullish flow. We shall see. Have the risk bulls had their fun for the year or is there one last hoorah? Good luck to all. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: BoJ meeting (19 Dec – no set time) – after recent comments from BoJ Deputy Gov Himino that an exit from its ultra-loose policy can offer benefits to the economy, the market has formed a view the BoJ monetary policy could shift. Last week’s TANKAN report gave that call additional legs, with Japanese corps seeing inflation above the BoJ’s target of 2% in 5 years’ time for the 6th straight quarter. Despite recent moves in JPY assets, the market is not looking for a change in rates, and a move from negative interest rates at this meeting, although they could guide for change at the January meeting. That said, a surprise policy change – either to its rates setting or YCC - can’t be ruled out, so watch JPY and JPN225 exposures here. RBA December minutes (19 Dec 11:30 AEDT) – after keeping rates on hold at the December meeting and refraining from altering the statement to any large degree the minutes shouldn’t trouble AUD traders too intently. Tactually biased short EURAUD for 1.5900/20. EU (final) CPI (19 Dec 21:00 AEDT) – given this is a final print, and the market is not looking for a change in the previously reported headline CPI numbers from 2.4% yoy and core CPI yoy at 3.6%, this should be a low volatility event. It should, however, remind traders of the steep decline in EU inflationary pressures that reinforces an optimism of a March rate cut from the ECB. China 1- & 5-year Prime Loan Rate (20 Dec 12:15 AEDT) – the market expected the prime rate to remain unchanged for the 1-year and 5-year rate at 3.45% and 4.2% respectively. While a cut to the prime rate seems a low risk, there are risks of a near-term cut to banks' reserve ratio requirements, although they are unlikely to come at this meeting. UK CPI inflation (20 Dec 18:00 AEDT) – the market looks for UK headline CPI to print 0.1% mom / 4.3% yoy (from 4.6%), and core CPI at 5.6% (5.7%). The market prices a 20% chance that the BoE cut in the March BoE meeting, with a full 25bp priced for June. The UK CPI print could impact that pricing and by extension the GBP. Canada CPI inflation (20 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – the market looks for headline CPI to come in at -0.2% mom / 2.8% yoy (from 3.1%), and core CPI at 3.3% (3.6%). The market prices a 72% chance of a cut from the BoC in March, so the CPI print could impact that pricing. USDCAD eyes support into 1.3325 – the rising trend drawn from the May 2021 low. US consumer confidence (21 Dec 02:00 AEDT) – the median estimate is for an improvement in confidence with the index eyed at 104.0 (from 102.0). Upside in this data series could support risky assets. Japan national CPI (22 Dec 10:30 AEDT) – the consensus is for headline inflation to moderate to 2.8% yoy (from 3.3%) and core CPI at 3.8% (4%). Unlikely a vol event for the JPY, but worth keeping an eye on if running JPY exposures over the data. US core PCE inflation (23 Dec 00:30 AEDT) – after reviewing the recent US CPI and PPI prints, the market looks headline PCE inflation to come in at 0.00% mom / 2.8% yoy (from 3%), and core PCE at 0.2% mom / 3.3% yoy (3.5%). The trajectory of inflation is a key reason for the market pricing such an elevated risk of a March rate cut - so a below consensus print could solidify that call and weigh on the USD. EM risk Columbia central bank meeting (20 Dec 05:00 AEDT) – the consensus is for a 25bp cut to 13%, with risks of a hold. USDCOP looks heavy, so modest downside risk portrayed in the set-up with an out-of-consensus hold a potential trigger – a break below 3960 suggests new YTD lows. Chile central bank meeting (20 Dec 08:00 AEDT) – the median call is the benchmark rate is cut by 75bp to 8.25% (from 9%) but given the recent inflation report, there is an elevated risk of a smaller 50bp cut to 8.5%. USDCLP needs a catalyst as the market seems happy to range trade this pair between 890 to 860. Mexico bi-weekly CPI (21 Dec 23:00 AEDT) – the market eyes 4.36% yoy (from 4.33%). USDMXN tracks a range of 17.57 to 17.05 – and needs a catalyst to promote a momentum move.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
DOW JONES - If This Count Is Accurate, The Last Wave Has Begun.While the channeling doesn't align entirely with my preferences, the symmetry resulting from the alternation, particularly between major Wave 2 and Wave iv of Wave 3, effectively constrains the price action. Notably, the correction spanning from 2018 to 2022 is identified as major Wave 4, which, in my assessment, appears relatively minor due to prior alternation patterns. I'd like to draw attention to the expanded corrections, predominantly observed at the upper end, each validated by AriasWave counts in terms of wave identification. It appears that we are currently in the conclusive phase of major Wave 5, expected to conclude around the 54,000 mark if its length is approximately akin to that of Wave 1. The upcoming months will be intriguing to observe developments in this vicinity. It is worth noting the characteristic nature of Wave 5 as a perceived weak final move, a fitting observation given the prevailing market conditions and the absence of significant strength in other markets.
TVC:DJILong
by AriasWave
2
DOW JONES Channel Up still intact.Dow Jones reached the top of the Channel Up that started in late October and turned sideways. The longer this pattern stays intact, the more every pull back is a buy opportunity. The MA50 (4h) is supporting since November 1st, showing the sheer strength of this bullish trend. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. 2. Sell below the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 37800 (under the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was the target top of the mid November consolidation). 2. 35600 (projected contact with the MA200 4h). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) sequences among the two bullish legs are identical, confirming the bullish sentiment towards the 1.382 Fibonacci. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
DOW JONES: Correction imminent. Buy at the right time.Dow Jones made new All Time High yesterday and today reached the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level of the 14 month Channel Up pattern. Needless to say it is massively overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 79.702, MACD = 696.100, ADX = 90.584). The sheer strenght of this rise since the October 27th bottom can only be compared to the first rise of the Channel in October-November 2022. After almost reaching the 0.786 Channel Fibonacci level, it pulled back to the 0.236 horizontal Fibonacci and then moved to a +19% rise before a consolidation that made the Channel's blow off top. Consequently, we cease our buying at the moment and will wait for that short term correction to the 0.236 Fibonacci (36,160). This will be our next buy entry to target the +19% extension (TP = 38,450). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30
by InvestingScope
DOW JONES Does this rally still surprise you?Two months ago (October 11) we made a bold statement calling for "the start of a new Bull rally under our nose" on Dow Jones (DJI) (see chart below): Many traders/ investors/ market participants have been surprised by the current November - December rally but in reality they shouldn't as the index is methodically repeating the 2016 - 2017 Rising Wedge pattern, as we've shown on that analysis. We are now at the level where the price is breaking above that pattern (blue circle), which comes after the 1W RSI makes a fake-out break breach below the Higher Lows and then rebounds. On the current analysis we expand the chart more, in order to show you that the very same Rising Wedge also emerged from May 2011 to December 2012. We are therefore on a +10 year cyclical pattern which the all three Wedges not only displaying identical break-outs/ fake-outs but also similar duration. The 2011/12 pattern peaked on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension, the 2015/16 a little higher on the 3.0 Fib ext. We can assume that this progression could give a new top on a higher Fib, but if we take the worst case scenario of the model (2.618 Fib), we can expect a High around 42900. Check out also how the Sine Waves grasp fairly accurately the cyclical movement on those bottoms and peaks during these past +10 years. Another important observation is that after the index broke above the Rising Wedge in 2016, it didn't offer any significant dips to buy. Rare buy entry opportunities existed only on the middle trend-line (orange) of the Bollinger Bands. The 2013 break-out gave significantly more dips buy opportunities, 7 in total all marginally below the Bollinger middle, before the 2.618 Fibonacci peak. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
US30: Thoughts and Analysis Pre-FOMCToday's focus: US30 Pattern – N/A Support – 36,280 Resistance – 36,900 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at US30 on the daily chart. Today's video asks if US30 will continue to track higher despite being well off its moving average. This can be a warning if you believe in mean revision. The other point we are looking at in today's report is whether we will see a stall at resistance and previous highs if the price continues to increase. A key driver could be tomorrow's FOMC; traders will be looking to see if rates remain on hold as expected and what we will hear from the FED in the statement and projections. Ideas are that we could see an end to aggressive rate policy, and what could be coming next? If it's dovish, we will look for stocks to rally; if it's hawkish, we will look for stocks to decline. Expectations are already in for May rate cuts to be priced in. Will we hear anything from the Fed to substantiate this? The FOMC will be held at 6:00 am AEDT, and the FOMC press conference will be held at 6:30 am Thursday. Good trading.
ULong
by Eightcap
US30 Is Very Bullish! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for US30. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 36244.0. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 37502.3 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by SignalProvider
2
DOW JONES Channel Up still holding, aiming at All Time Highs.Dow Jones (DJI) maintains its bullish trade within the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 27 Low. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since November 01 and as long as it continues to do so, the index is more likely to test the 36975 All Time High (Jan 05 2022). Especially since it is currently on a 4H MACD Bullish Cross. The previous two MACD Bullish Crosses have delivered rises of around +2.70% to the top of the Channel Up. Another +2.70% rise will send the price above 37000 and that is our target. If however the index closes below the 4H MA50, we will take the long's loss and reverse to a short immediately, targeting the bottom of the Channel Up. If the price closes below it, we will re-sell and target Support 1 at 35300, where potentially contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) can be made for the first time since November 02. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
US30 DOW JONES Technical Analysis And Trade Idea The US30 has exhibited a strong upward movement, recently reaching a significant resistance level on both the daily and weekly charts. This video provides a detailed analysis of this trend, meticulously examining price movements and identifying possible trading opportunities by thoroughly assessing multiple timeframes, ranging from weekly to as short as 15 minutes. Anticipate an in-depth review covering price variations, market trends, trend evaluations, and crucial technical analysis components. It's crucial to emphasize that the insights shared here are purely educational and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
BLACKBULL:US30
by tradingwithanthony
US30/USD Shorts from 36600.0 back down.Last week's price action exhibited significant ranging, mainly influenced by the proximity to all-time highs (ATHs). My current perspective is that US30 is actively generating liquidity, setting the stage for a bearish reaction once the daily supply is mitigated. This particular supply level holds substantial importance as it is the last on the chart, existing on a higher time frame and having broken structure to the downside. I anticipate a scenario where the price sweeps the top of the consolidation, touches my Point of Interest (POI), and subsequently descends towards the lower bounds of the consolidation and potentially even lower. Given the post-Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) situation, I foresee a breakout from this range, initiating a trend and providing opportunities for traders like us to capitalize on. My strategy involves patiently waiting for a Wyckoff distribution to take shape in this zone, allowing us to secure a precise entry point for our bearish positions. Confluences for US30 Sells are as follows: - Price is near daily supply which has caused a BOS to the downside on the higher timeframe. - There lots of liquidity lying below in the form of EQLs, Asia Lows, and trendline liquidity. - The bottom part of the consolidation also holds lots of liquidity so we can target as T.P levels - Wyckoff distribution is pending and still hasn't been formed yet on lower time frame. - NFP event has also passed so now we could possibly see the real moves play out. - Price has been very bullish recently and now bullish pressure is getting exhausted. - This consolidation is a great sign that price might be looking to reverse soon. P.S. I acknowledge the possibility of the price breaking the bottom first and interacting with a demand zone, triggering a bullish rally that could eventually exhaust the supply. It highlights the importance of adaptability. I'm closely monitoring multiple potential scenarios and adjusting my approach based on the direction the price may take. This approach enables us to identify more frequent opportunities in the market.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Hassan_fx
DOW JONES Next stop 37000Dow Jones held the MA50 (4h) today after the initial NFP decline. This keeps the Channel Up intact on its upper layers, aiming for a new Higher High. Trading Plan: 1. Buy as long as the MA50 (4h) holds. 2. Sell if it breaks. Targets: 1. 37000 (Fibonacci 1.78 extension, like the Nov 15th Higher High). 2. 35700 (bottom of Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) rebounded exactly on the level (Support 1) the Nov 9th did. The two legs are so far very symmetrical and promt to the extension of the Channel Up. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingBrokersView
🔥 XAUUSD : Targets Below $2000 ? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining gold in the weekly time frame, we see that the price is still below the range that we have determined based on the latest analysis, and until the price can be stabilized below $2072, our bearish view is still valid! The overall yield of this analysis has been more than 600 pips so far and we have to see if the price can penetrate below $2000 by the end of the week! (more details in the next analysis in the daily time frame) The Main Analysis : Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
17