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D-US30

DOW JONES Sell signal at the top of the 1 year Channel UpDow Jones hit the top of the 1 year Channel Up, achieving an unprecedented High of overbought conditions on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 75.323, MACD = 557.860, ADX = 77.014). The first signs of exhaustion are given by the Stock RSI, which is pulling back. So far this can only be a short term sell signal so we are only aiming for the minimum retrace of the 0.236 Fibonacci level (TP = 35,550). Beyond that we need to see a closing under it in order to make an extension to the 1D MA50 (technically) but that would negate a seasonal Christmas rally. So for now take we keep only a short term horizon. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
3
Dow Jones ETF (DIA) ~ December 4H SwingAMEX:DIA chart anaylsis/mapping. DIA ETF on relative strength compared to recent SPY/QQQ performance, indicating potential market rotation. Trading scenarios: Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib. Shallow pullback #1 = ascending trend-line (white) / ascending trend-line (green dashed) / gap fill confluence zone. Shallow pullback #2 = gap fills / descending trend-line (light blue) / 78.6% Fib confluence zone. Deeper pullback #1 = Golden Pocket Fib / 200MA confluence zone. Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib / ascending trend-line (light blue). Capitulation #2 = gap fills / 38.2% Fib confluence zone. Capitulation #3 = gap fills / 23.6% Fib confluence zone.
AMEX:DIA
by BlueHatInvestor
US30/USD Longs from 36000.0 up to 36750.0US30 has followed the anticipated trajectory, and I foresee it reaching all-time highs (ATHs) very soon. However, given the recent impulsive upward movement in price, a pullback is likely imminent. This presents an opportunity for us to capitalize on, considering the presence of an 8-hour demand zone where the price could retreat to, regaining bullish momentum for another rally. Conversely, there's also a possibility of the price surging directly into our daily supply zone, prompting a bearish reaction. While I anticipate the eventual failure of the daily supply, I can foresee price declining from that zone, providing potential selling opportunities. Confluences for US30 Buys are as follows: - Price has been impulsively bullish to the upside carrying lots of momentum. - Overall trend on the higher time frame and lower time frame both show a bullish trend. - Price left an 8hr demand zone for us to take buys from up to the ATH's - Due to recent impulsive upward movements, a pullback in price is imminent. - For the price to gather sufficient strength to reach all-time highs (ATHs), it must retrace back to a nearby demand zone. P.S. As the price approaches all-time highs (ATHs), it wouldn't be surprising to witness a consolidation. In such a scenario, I anticipate a significant reaction from the daily supply, given its HTF significance. Conversely, should the price quickly exceed the latest supply zone, choosing buy positions would be a more feasible approach. HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AHEAD!
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Hassan_fx
1
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook – timing the turn We roll into December and many hoping to take a couple of weeks off over the festive season may be reconsidering that call – such is the opportunity cost. Whether one is looking at equities, the USD, gold, or bonds/rates it's all a big momentum play. In equity land, the US30 is where the big moves are playing out, with the index in beast mode and a mere 1.9% away from its all-time highs. The S&P500 also closed higher for a fifth consecutive week and our US500 index now eyes a test of the 27 July high of 4611, where price action throughout last week suggests further juice in the rally is still possible. What concerns me is that these markets are rich in positioning, valuation and technically overbought. Market internals are very frothy, with 57% of stocks closing at a 4-week high, 85% of stocks above the 50-day MA, and 32% of stocks with an RSI above 70 – levels that typically signal an overloved market and a potential reversal. Valuations are also lofty, with the S&P500 trading on 21.4x forward earnings, although that is more of a 2024 story. Positioning is becoming extreme, with CTAs now max long and shorts having covered hard. Downside protection/hedges have been rolled right off, where the volatility markets have pulled back to the point where many are feeling its cheap and prudent to buy short-dated puts or put spreads. US rates and swaps are rich (see above), notably on the starting point for Fed easing, with the March FOMC meeting now priced at a 70% chance of a cut. We can also look further out and see over five 25bp cuts priced by the end of 2024. The move in short-end rates has been swift, and the USD has followed in earnest. It suggests that the skew in the risk and the potential direction of travel is shifting, and if any of the US data points this week – notably US payrolls - come in above consensus then USD shorts will part cover and those positioned long of Treasuries may too – equity will be sensitive to any move higher in yields. So the chase in risk into year-end heats up but what is extreme can become more so, with the market's elastic band getting pulled back to greater and greater levels. On balance, it feels like long risk is still tactically the right position, but the higher it goes the more the ‘January effect’ will kick in and the more pronounced the position squaring and risk drawdown could play out – as liquidity thins out it could be a very lively period ahead. A turn is coming, but timing it is where the money will be made. Good luck to all…. The marquee event risks for the week ahead: ECB President Lagarde speaks (01:00 AEDT) – the EU swaps market prices 20bp of cuts as soon as the March ECB meeting and 114bp (nearly 5) cuts 12 months out – will Lagarde push back on this dovish pricing, and will the market believe her? Tokyo CPI (Tuesday 10:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is we see headline inflation at 3% (from 3.3%) and core 3.7% (3.8%). This shouldn’t move the JPY unless it’s a speculator beat/miss, but the BoJ will be watching this closely. RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEST) – the market prices no hikes at all for this meeting, so it will be down to the tone of the statement and whether the 8bp of hikes priced for the February RBA meeting are correctly priced. It’s hard to see any major deviation from RBA Gov Bullock's recent communication, so the meeting should be a low-volatility event for the AUD or AUS200. US JOLTS job openings (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the market looks for a slight cooling in job openings, with 9.3 million job openings eyed (9.55m). The USD could be sensitive to this print and prone to short covering if we see above 10m job openings. US ISM services (Wednesday 02:00 AEDT) – the consensus is that we see expansion in the US service sector, with consensus at 52.3 (51.8). A downside read towards 50 (the growth/contraction divide) could see further buyers in US Treasuries and keep the pressure on the USD. If the data comes out inline or above consensus then USD shorts could cover. The sub-components of the report matter, notably in new orders and employment. If the employment sub-component comes in under 50, then it could impact expectations and positioning ahead of nonfarm payrolls (NFP). Australia Q3 GDP (Wednesday 11:30 AEDT) – It’s hard to see this influencing the AUD too intently, but it is a small risk for those running AUD exposures over the event. The market eyes GDP at 0.4% qoq / 1.8% yoy. US ADP employment change (Thursday 00:15 AEDT) – with NFPs on Friday the market should be less sensitive to the outcome of the ADP report. With the consensus at 120K jobs, a big beat/miss could impact the USD, as expectations for the NFP change. Bank of Canada meeting (Thursday 02:00 AEDT) – the market prices no change in policy at this meeting, so it’s the guidance and tone of the statement that matters more. CAD swaps price an 80% chance of a 25bp cut by the March meeting and nearly 5 cuts priced by end-2024 China trade data (Thursday – no set time) – the market looks for import growth of 4%, and exports to fall 1.5%. The market will look for signs of internal demand, so could be sensitive to any beat/miss in the import print. US nonfarm payrolls (S at 00:30 AEDT) – the marquee event risk for the markets this week. The median estimate is for around 180k jobs, with the economist's estimates ranging from 240k to 100k. We will also look at trends in revisions to the prior reads, as this will also affect the 3-month average. The market could be sensitive to the U/E rate which is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% - a 4-handle on the E/U rate would get the market talking and likely hit the USD. Also, consider average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3% mom/4% yoy. I would argue the USD would rally harder on a big NFP print, than selloff on a weaker print. China CPI/PPI (Sat 09:30 AEDT) – The data falls when markets are closed, so there is some gapping risk in Chinese assets and their proxies. Here the market looks for CPI at -0.2% and PPI inflation at -3%. Amid the disinflationary/deflationary backdrop, there are increasing calls for further monetary policy easing.
Editors' picks
PEPPERSTONE:US30Long
by Pepperstone
14
DOW JONES One final push before correction.Dow Jones / US30 made a new High on its November rally today. This is all part of the bullish sequence from the bottom to the top of the 1 year Channel Up pattern. The last blow off top rally that formed the July 27th High completed a +6.30% rise from the moment it tested and held the 1day MA50. That would now be at 35960, above both Resistance A and B levels. As a result there is still time for you to buy and target 35960 for quick profits. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TheCryptagon
4
📉 #Dowjones : Waiting for a Correction ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the Dow Jones chart in the daily time frame, we can see that the price is trading in the range of 35320, and I think that after the strong growth that we have seen in the last month, it will finally be stopped to some extent! The range of 35400 to 35700 is an important supply zone and I think the price will be corrected after entering this RANGE! If this is confirmed, I will update this chart and talk about its possible targets in more detail! Everything is clear on the chart and those who know my technical and analytical methods can use it very much! Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
US30 Will Go Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for US30. Time Frame: 3h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a significant resistance area 35373.2. Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 35190.7 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by SignalProvider
1
DOW JONES Pull-back or Santa rally?It's more than 2 weeks since we looked into Dow Jones (DJI), giving a bullish rebound signal on the 1D MA50 (see chart below) that quickly hit its target: The price is now significantly above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which is roughly where the previous bullish wave of March - April took a medium-term pause and pulled-back first to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The % rise so far though (+9.50%) is almost the same as April's (+9.03%). With the 1D RSI however printing a sideways sequence on the 70.00 overbought mark, very similar to April's, it is worth attempting now a sell targeting the 1D MA50 and the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 34300. Since however we are very close to the (seasonaly bullish) Christmas period, if Resistance 1 (35700) breaks, we will take the loss on the short and instead buy towards the top of the 12 month Channel Up and target 36300, as part of the so called Santa's rally. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30
by TradingShot
US30 Longs from 35100.0 up towards 35600.0My bias for US30 is bullish, hence why we are looking forward to the nearest buy opportunity which will be the 14hr demand below. This zone has caused a BOS to the upside meaning once a correction back down is complete, it will hopefully mitigate our POI where we will be able to enter buy positions. But we must wait for our lower time frame confirmations like Wyckoff. There's a long wick that hasn't got filled in which I see as liquidity hence why I haven't got any near by supply zones however, we can catch buys up to that (7hr supply) so we can eventually sell back down. Nevertheless, price could go lower as price has been very impulsive and it has left quite a few imbalances below. So we could see a mitigation of a cheaper zone like the 10hr. Confluences for US30 Buys are as follows - Overall Market trend (short term and long term) is both bullish, matching my bias. - For price to keep going higher it must create a pull back in order to create a new leg. - Price has CHOCH and caused several BOS to the upside confirming the trend. - Liquidity has been swept already so there's enough momentum for price to push upwards. - Price left a 14hr demand at a psychological level of 1990 that caused an impulsive move up. - Pending Wyckoff accumulation to play out as price is not near my POI as of now. P.S. I don't personally see a current near by supply to take sells from so I would rather wait for price to "show me its hands" and take it from there. In addition to this, Price is between a lot of liquidity right now and we might just see a consolidation but, we have to always remain adaptive hence why we have spoken about both scenarios that could play out.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by Hassan_fx
1
DOW JONES showing a Bearish Divergence. Expect correction soon.Dow Jones is extending the rally since the October 27th bottom, which was a HL of the dominant Channel Up pattern. The 1D technical outlook is overbought (RSI = 71.474, MACD = 390.490, ADX = 67.776) but the difference maker on the technical field is the CCI metric. Being also overbought over 100.00, it is showing a Bearish Divergence, which was present on the last three short term corrections since the March 15th Channel Up HL. Common characteristic on all three was that the High was formed halfway through the CCI Bearish Divergence and the correction that followed always hit the 1D MA50. Consequently, we expect a correction to start as soon as next week, that will target the 1D MA50, before the Christmas rally begins. Currently the estimated pullback target is at 34,450. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by InvestingScope
1