GOLD - Price can break support level and fall to $2660 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price entered to wedge, where it at once made an upward impulse to resistance line, breaking $2695 level.
Next, price in a short time declined to support line, breaking $2695 level again and then exiting from a wedge.
After this, price fell below $2625 level and started to grow in a rising channel, where it traded between $2625 level.
Later, Gold broke this level and rose a little, after which made correction and then continued to grow.
Price reached $2695 level, but at once made a small correction, after which backed up and broke this level.
At the moment, I think that Gold can start to decline from resistance line of a channel to $2660, breaking support level.
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D-XAU
Gold to stall at previous highs?Gold - Intraday
Selling posted close to the previous high of 2726.0.
2721.3 has been pivotal.
Offers ample risk/reward to sell at the market.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
Early optimism is likely to lead to gains although extended attempts higher are expected to fail.
We look to Sell at 2718.5 (stop at 2738.5)
Our profit targets will be 2668.5 and 2658.5
Resistance: 2724.5 / 2735.0 / 2750.0
Support: 2709.7 / 2700.0 / 2690.0
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XAUUSD - Gold reached above $2700!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1-hour time frame and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the top of the channel, we can look for positions to sell it at the target of $2,700. The loss of the midline of the channel will lead to the continuation of this corrective process.
Gold is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, although this growth may not match the impressive performance seen in 2024. Juan Carlos Artigas, the Head of Research at the World Gold Council, discussed the reasons behind this trend and outlined three possible scenarios for gold’s future in an interview with Kitco News.
Artigas attributed gold’s record-breaking performance in 2024, which included 40 new highs, to the metal’s dual role as an investment asset and a consumer commodity. He stated, “Gold is an extremely effective risk management tool. Investors have turned to it due to rising market volatility and geopolitical risks.”
For 2025, Artigas predicted three distinct scenarios for the gold market:
• Limited growth with low volatility: This would occur if expectations for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth remain stable.
• Downward pressure: If interest rates remain high or rise further, gold’s investment appeal could diminish. Additionally, weak economic growth might lower consumer demand.
• Significant growth: In the event of heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks, investors would likely view gold as a safe haven, driving prices higher.
Artigas cautioned that government debt could emerge as a “black swan” event in 2025. He explained that rising global government debt levels and difficulties in securing financing pose a significant risk to the global economy.
He further emphasized that gold’s performance against various currencies highlights its role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. For example, gold’s returns against the Turkish lira reached 50% in 2024 due to the lira’s depreciation against the US dollar.
Additionally, Artigas pointed to increased demand from central banks and Western investors in the second half of 2024. This surge in demand was attributed to lower central bank interest rates and reduced opportunity costs for holding gold.
Among all commodities, gold remains one of the few assets that analysts at BMO Capital Markets are optimistic about for 2025. They predict that central banks will continue purchasing gold to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Furthermore, BMO expects gold to remain a dynamic asset, serving as an effective hedge against inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and stock market risks.
Next week, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the next President of the United States. Meanwhile, the global community is bracing for the new administration, which has announced plans to impose tariffs to promote and protect domestic policies under the “America First” agenda.
BMO analysts believe the Trump administration will be “inherently” inflationary. Their report noted, “The new administration has highlighted two clear policies that will dominate Trump’s second term. The first is that 2025 will be a year of tariff increases. Since tariffs function as a domestic tax on consumption borne by consumers, the economic consensus is that tariffs are inherently stagflationary.” They added, “The second key policy involves continued increases in government spending. Trump won the election on promises of tax cuts for corporations and individuals. According to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, these promises are expected to add approximately $7.75 trillion to the US national debt between 2026 and 2035.”
BMO analysts also noted that rising inflationary pressures will likely lead to a decline in real interest rates, eroding the appeal of short-term bonds, which were a favored risk-free option in the previous year.
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent Formation of a well-defined Channel Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around close to the Channel. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2709
2nd Support – 2729
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GOLD - Price can reach resistance level and then start to fallHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few days ago price declined in falling channel, where it at once broke $2715 level and fell to support line of channel.
Then price moved up to resistance line of channel and then continued to decline to $2536 points.
Gold broke $2605 level but soon it made an upward impulse, exiting from a channel and breaking $2605 level again.
Also, price started to trades inside flat, where it twice reached resistance level and then dropped to support line.
After this, Gold exited from flat and started to grow near support line, and later it bounced from this line.
Now, I think that XAU can reach resistance level and then start to decline to $2625 support line.
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HelenP. I Gold will touch trend line and then start to declineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. In this chart, we can see how the price reached the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, broke it, and rose to the trend line. Then Gold started to decline inside the wedge and soon broke the 2690 level, after which dropped until to the support level and even lower the support zone to 2584 points (support line of wedge) and then turned around. Some time, the price trades below the support level and tries to break it, but it does this on the third try. Then Gold rose a little and made a correction to the support level, after which rebounded and started to grow to the resistance level. When XAU reached this level, it broke it and touched the trend line, after which made a correction movement, breaking the resistance level one more time. Then it turned around and rose to the resistance level one more time and touched the trend line again, after which started to decline. In my mind, XAUUSD will reach the trend line one more time and then continue to decline in the wedge. For this case, I set my goal at 2660 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
XAUUSD - The CPI index will determine the gold path!Gold is located in a 4 -hour timeframe above EMA200 and EMA50 and is on its uptrend channel. If weaken in CPI data and market concerns about inflation, gold buying opportunities.
The release of the headline stronger than the expectation of the CPI will result in the uptrend and decrease in gold. But in the secondary wave it will result in gold climbing.
Gold prices have reached their highest levels in approximately four weeks, nearing the $2,700 range. Recent changes in stock markets and concerns over U.S. economic policies have driven increased demand for gold. Several key factors have contributed to the recent price surges. First, rising global tensions, particularly involving major powers such as the U.S., Russia, and China, have destabilized financial markets, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset to shield against potential crises. Second, persistent concerns about inflation in major economies have made gold an attractive option for preserving purchasing power. Additionally, central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, boosting demand. Finally, expectations of interest rate cuts or potential easing by central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have further enhanced gold’s appeal.
Gold prices have previously experienced sharp declines. Between 2011 and 2015, gold lost nearly 45% of its value, falling from its peak of $1,920 per ounce to $1,050 per ounce, driven by a strong dollar, rising interest rates, and an improving economy. Beyond this historical context, other scenarios could also lead to a 30% decline in gold prices. For instance, if the Federal Reserve adopts unexpectedly aggressive monetary policies and raises interest rates faster than anticipated, the strengthening dollar would exert downward pressure on gold prices.
A sudden increase in gold supply could also push prices lower, whether due to the discovery of new reserves or the sale of gold holdings by central banks or large institutions. Moreover, robust improvements in global economies alongside geopolitical stability could dampen demand for gold. Finally, growing investor interest in alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies or other commodities, could diminish gold’s perceived value.
Paul Williams, CEO of Solomon Global, has forecasted that the factors driving 39 record-breaking gold price highs last year remain intact and could support further price growth in 2025. In his report, Williams stated: “The year 2024 reinforced gold’s role as a timeless and safe asset. In a world filled with geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties, gold has provided stability and security for investors. The record highs achieved in 2024 reflect not only market conditions but also a broader sense of caution and risk mitigation among investors. This trend appears poised to continue into 2025.”
Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal has released predictions from 17 economists on U.S. inflation data set to be announced on Wednesday, January 15, 2025. In 2024, the Federal Reserve made limited progress in curbing inflation, with most inflation indicators only slightly declining from the start of the year. Although policymakers had hoped inflation would approach the 2% target, persistent inflationary pressures have kept it near 3%.
However, November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report offered a glimmer of hope. Prices in sectors such as housing and services, which have been major drivers of persistent inflation, have begun to ease. This may lead to an unexpected decline in Wednesday’s CPI data, although more significant decreases are likely in early 2025.
Analysts predict a monthly CPI increase of 0.3%, which is lower than the 0.4% forecast from the Federal Reserve Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcast model. According to these projections, annual CPI is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9% in November.
Given that markets currently price in only two 25-basis-point rate cuts for all of 2025, a strong CPI report may not elicit a major market reaction. However, if CPI data comes in weaker than expected, the U.S. dollar could face selling pressure.
GOLD Awaits Breakout Amid Key Data Releases!
GOLD is forming a symmetrical triangle, signaling a potential breakout soon. The price is consolidating near the 2675-2681 resistance zone, a key area to watch.
The PPI data released yesterday slightly disappointed dollar buyers, offering support to the forex market and causing a small correction in gold. Looking ahead, CPI data could bring further support to the market and drive volatility.
If GOLD breaks above 2681, we could see an upward move toward higher levels. However, a failure to hold above this zone may trigger a bearish breakdown toward lower supports.
Resistance: 2675, 2681, 2690
Support: 2667, 2656
The triangle’s apex suggests a decisive move is imminent.
Watch the CPI data and stay alert for the breakout! 🚨
Could the Gold reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support that acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 2,693.13
1st Support: 2,657.78
1st Resistance: 2,718.80
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Potential bullish rise?The Gold (XAU/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 2,658.19
1st Support: 2,637.52
1st Resistance: 2,689.56
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold maintaining a solid uptrend
The strong dollar is currently preventing gold prices from surpassing the critical 2695 resistance level. Nevertheless, gold prices are on a steady upward trajectory, driven by a strong demand for safe haven as investors flock to gold.
This week, the direction of gold prices will hinge on the December CPI data. Markets anticipate that the CPI (YoY) will rise to 2.9% in December, up from 2.7%. Should inflation numbers exceed expectations, it could significantly dampen the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates. It is crucial to recognize that CPI results above market consensus may prompt a surge in the dollar, likely resulting in a decline in gold prices.
After testing the resistance at 2695, XAUUSD returned some gains and retreated to 2671. However, XAUUSD sustains a solid uptrend within the ascending channel, awaiting further price triggers. If XAUUSD breaches above the channel’s upper bound and the resistance at 2695, the price may gain upward momentum toward 2725. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks EMA78 and the channel’s lower bound, the price may fall further to the support at 2635.
XAUUSD - 4hr | Rising WedgeSimple Trading: Rising Wedge Pattern
GOLD has been trailing up for the past week. The Price of gold has currently broken below the rising wedge pattern, which means a huge sell-off may occur. At the moment, we are waiting for the retest of previous support to confirm new resistance. Once the New resistance is confirmed, we will see price reject the 2680-90 area and push toward the new bearish target of 2615. Pay close attention to the smelling time frames. Look for FVG's to take sell positions
Bearish drop?XAU/USD has reacted off the support level which is a pullback support and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,665.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 2,680.68
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 2,636.56
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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XAUUSD 12/1/24XAUUSD remains our second pair as usual. Orion is clear as always, giving us a bullish bias to target the highs. Similar to EU, we only have one high to aim for, so the options are the same as mentioned in that write-up. We could pull back from the current position, creating a new low in the process, which would lead us into the lows and present a long entry opportunity in line with the bias. Alternatively, we might take the high first and then drop down into the lows, which would also provide a potential long entry.
Overall, we are anticipating a higher shift and need to monitor the lows for this to materialize. Follow Orion, stick to your plan, and manage your risk properly.
HelenP. I Gold will rebound down from resistance zoneHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. In this chart, we can see how the price rebounded from the trend line and rose to the support level, which coincided with the support zone and broke it. Then price continued to grow and later reached the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and even broke this level and rose a little more. After this, Gold turned around and made impulse down to the support level, breaking the resistance level, after which turned around and started to grow. Later, Gold reached the 2690 level one more time and broke it one more time, but this time it rose a little higher than the past breakout, to 2726 points. After this movement, the price in a short time declined to the support zone, breaking resistance with the support level and also the trend line too, and then started to grow inside the upward channel. In the channel, the price grew to the trend line and recently it even entered to resistance zone, exiting from the channel. But soon, Gold started to decline and for this case, I expect that XAUUSD will enter to resistance zone and then rebound down to the channel, where it falls to 2655 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Gold can exit from wedge and rebound down from resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. By observing the chart, we can see that the price entered to downward wedge, where it at once started to decline and soon reached a resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and broke it. Next, the price continued to fall and later declined to support line of the wedge, breaking the support level as well. But when Gold touched the support line, it at once made a strong impulse up to the seller zone, breaking the support level one more time. Then price little grew higher than the seller zone, after which it turned around and made a correction to the support level, breaking the 2690 level one more time. After this, Gold some time traded near the support level and then backed up to the seller zone rose higher than this area again, and then rebounded down to the support line of the wedge. Then price turned around and started to grow and in a short time rose almost to the resistance line of the wedge. So, in my opinion, Gold can exit from the wedge, reach resistance level, and then start to decline. For this reason, I set my TP at 2620 points, which coincides with the support line of the wedge. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
HelenP. I Gold will correct and then continue rise in channelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price rebounded from support 1 and then dropped to the trend line, thereby breaking support 2, which coincided with the support zone. After this, the price started to grow inside the upward channel, where it soon broke support 2 one more time but later made a correction back to the trend line. Some time later Gold finally broke support 2 and then made a retest, after which some time traded near this level and even made a fake breakout of it with a trend line. After this, the price backed up to the channel and continued to grow and later reached support 1, which coincided with the resistance zone and broke this level. Gold rose to the resistance line of the channel and then made a correction movement to the trend line (support line of the channel) and then quickly backed up to the resistance zone. At the moment, the price continues to trades in this area and I think that XAUUSD will make a correction below the support level and then continue to grow inside the upward channel. For this case, I set my goal at 2670 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
XAUUSD - The NFP indicator will determine the direction of gold!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. In case of weakness in the data of the employment market and increase in the unemployment rate, you can look for opportunities to buy gold.
A lower-than-expected unemployment rate release and a strong NFP headline will lead to a breakout of the bullish and bearish channel in gold.
While most major economies are expected to pursue expansionary monetary policies this year, the pace of these measures will likely slow. According to Bloomberg’s forecast, the overall interest rate index in advanced economies is projected to decrease by only 72 basis points in 2025, which is lower than the rate of decline in 2024.
Donald Trump, with his electoral promises and economic policies, has become a source of concern for central banks worldwide.If Trump enforces his threats to impose trade tariffs, these policies could harm economic growth and, in the case of retaliatory measures, drive up consumer prices.
Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) highlighted the “complex” impacts of Trump’s proposed tariffs on metal prices in a recent note. The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada—two of the main suppliers of metals to the U.S.—are expected to have both direct and indirect effects on the market.
The bank identified two main concerns. First, the potential negative impact on global growth and the fundamentals of the metals market, particularly if the tariffs escalate into a full-blown trade war. However, BofA predicts that a more “measured approach to trade barriers is likely to prevail,” which would mitigate the overall damage. Second, regional metal prices will need to adjust to the potential tariffs.
Bank of America warned that tariffs could strengthen the dollar, increase inflation, and lead to higher interest rates—all of which could pose challenges for the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, they concluded that metal prices are likely to stabilize after the initial volatility subsides, especially if the tariffs are targeted and investments in energy transition continue.
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, downplayed expectations of continued monetary easing in 2025 during his December 18, 2024, press conference. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s dissenting vote against a rate cut was surprising, but the major shock to markets came from the Fed members’ projections (dot plot).
The Fed members forecast only two rate cuts for 2025, signaling that the monetary easing cycle, which began in September 2024, will slow significantly in the coming year.
Powell also admitted that inflation forecasts for the end of the year had been overly optimistic, suggesting that inflation is not yet fully under control. The Fed is increasingly concerned about Trump’s policies, as tools like tariffs could raise import prices and, subsequently, inflation.
Forecasts for Friday’s NFP data:
• Average estimate: 165K
• Lowest estimate: 120K
• Highest estimate: 190K
The importance of the labor market for monetary policy has slightly diminished following Powell’s December 18 press conference. This indicates that the Fed has some confidence in easing price pressures stemming from the labor market. However, recent data suggests that the labor market has not fully cooled. The upcoming NFP report is expected to show a 160,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate and hourly wage growth are likely to remain steady at 4.2% and 4%, respectively.
If these expectations are unmet, especially with job growth below 50,000, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in Q1 2025 will increase. Currently, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by June 2025, but this move could occur sooner if labor market data remains weak.
Gold Update: Sideways Consolidation ^ $2,800 => $2,400-$2,500Gold futures follow the path posted earlier (see related).
It dropped quickly and deeply within a correction to hit the $2,542 mark.
Next was a strong rebound that stalled just above $2.7k
Then we saw a series of zigzags that shaped a small consolidation
All of this indicates of the sideways consolidation pattern which implies the
box type flat correction with top and bottom of the range defined by all-time high ($2,802)
and the valley at $2,542. The height of the range is around 300 bucks.
Next step for the price to retest or only touch the all-time high,
further we might face another drop to retest the valley of $2,542 or even lower
to touch the bottom of the bullish channel. Another downside target is at 38.2% Fib at $2,400.
After that, the consolidation could be over and the bullish trend to resume with new impulse.