GOLD - Price can little fall and then bounce up to $2690 levelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to decline from resistance line, breaking $2690 level, and fell to $2535 points, breaking $2605 level too.
Then price turned around and started to grow inside wedge, where it broke resistance line and soon reached $2605 level.
Price broke this level and rose to resistance line of wedge, after which made a correction to support level.
Next, price some time traded and then fell to support line of wedge, after which made upward impulse.
Gold rose to resistance line of wedge, breaking $2690 level, but recently it turned around and fell to support line.
Now, I think that Gold can fall little below support line of wedge and then bounce up to $2690 level.
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D-XAU
Gold can correct and then continue to grow to resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. By observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago fell to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and started to grow inside a broadening wedge. In this pattern, the price rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and even broke it, after which continued to grow to the resistance line of the wedge pattern. After this, Gold made a correction to the seller zone and then in a short time backed up to the resistance line, but soon turned around and started to decline. Gold quickly fell lower the 2720 level, breaking it and also it exiting from a broadening wedge pattern. Then the price continued to fall and later reached the 2605 support level and even broke it too, after which made a retest and continued to fall to 2535 points. Later XAU turned around and started to grow inside the upward pennant, where it in a short time rose to a resistance level, breaking the 2605 support level, but then Gold made a downward impulse. After this, the price fell to the support line, but a not long time ago it exited from the pennant pattern and now continues to grow. In my mind, Gold can make a move down and then continue to rise to the 2720 resistance level. So, that's why I set my TP at this level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Gold can little correct and then grow to 2720 resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time traded near the resistance level in the seller zone, and later price rebounded and started to grow. In a short time price rose to 2790 points and then turned around and started to decline inside the downward triangle. In this pattern, the price first broke the 2720 level and then declined to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, after which broke this level too. Next, Gold declined to support line of the triangle, after which at once made impulse up, breaking the 2625 level one more time. Then it made a retest and continued to grow to the resistance line of the triangle, and when Gold reached this line it at once dropped to the 2625 support level. Price some time traded near this level, after which fell to the buyer zone and then started to grow. In a short time, the price rose to a resistance level, exiting from the triangle, but recently it turned around and made correction. So, now, I think that Gold can decline to support line of the triangle and then rebound up to the 2720 resistance level. That's why I set my TP at this level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD - Price can correct and then continue to grow in channelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price bounced from $2710 resistance level and in a short time declined to $2536 points, breaking $2615 level.
Price started to grow inside a rising channel, where it soon broke $2615 level one more time and rose to resistance area.
But then, price corrected to support level, after which some time traded near it and then continued to grow.
In a short time, Gold rose to resistance level and then entered to resistance area, but later bounced down.
Thereby price makes a fake breakout of $2710 level, so, now I think that XAU can decline a little more.
After this, price can turn around and then rise to $2760, breaking resistance level inside a rising channel.
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Could the price bounce from here?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the overlap resistance.
Pivot: 2,657.81
1st Support: 2,627.26
1st Resistance: 2,713.51
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD - gold will be welcomed by the Federal Reserve!Gold is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its descending channel. If we maintain the drawn channel, we can witness the continuation of gold's decline and limited visibility of the bottom of the channel. Within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If it returns to the ceiling of the channel, it is possible to sell within the supply zone.
1. UBS Gold Forecast:
UBS has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900. This prediction is based on factors such as the rising U.S. debt, strong demand from central banks, and declining interest rates. The institution also anticipates that U.S. inflation will decrease to 3% by the end of 2024, 2.6% by the end of 2025, and 2.5% throughout 2027. These figures are significantly higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, suggesting that persistent inflation may pose a significant obstacle to the Fed’s efforts to control it.
2. U.S. CPI Report:
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November highlighted the persistence of inflationary pressures. However, the details of the report appeared somewhat reassuring. CIBC Bank predicts that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 0.25% in its December meeting, though subsequent rate cuts may be delayed due to the economy’s continued growth.
3. Ray Dalio on Gold:
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, referred to Bitcoin as a hard asset and stated that he prefers Bitcoin and gold over debt-based assets. He expressed concerns about a potential global debt crisis and emphasized the importance of shifting investments toward hard assets.
Dalio pointed to unprecedented levels of debt in major countries such as the U.S. and China, deeming these debt levels unsustainable.Speaking at a financial conference in Abu Dhabi, he remarked, “It is impossible for these countries to avoid a debt crisis in the coming years, which will likely lead to a significant depreciation of their currencies.”
4. Dalio’s Evolving Stance on Bitcoin:
Previously, Dalio believed that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin would not achieve the success many had hoped for. However, in recent years, he has become a prominent advocate of Bitcoin. In 2022, Dalio suggested allocating up to 2% of an investment portfolio to Bitcoin and gold as a reasonable strategy to combat inflation. He also reiterated his preference for gold over Bitcoin while emphasizing the importance of portfolio diversification.
5. Peter Schiff’s Warning on Bitcoin:
Peter Schiff, a prominent gold advocate, has warned that creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the U.S. could have negative consequences. On December 9, Schiff posted on the social media platform X, suggesting that the Biden administration should sell all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government before leaving office. He stated, “This move would not only help reduce the 2024 budget deficit but also put an end to all the nonsense about establishing a ‘strategic reserve’ of Bitcoin, which is detrimental.”
Could the price bounce from here?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,665.32
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.89% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 2,620.34
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 2,716.62
Why we like it:|
There is an overlap resistance level.
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GOLD to extend it's gains?Gold - 24h expiry
There is no indication that the rally is coming to an end. Our short term bias remains positive. 5 positive daily performances in succession. Price action continues to trade around significant highs. We look for gains to be extended today. A break of the recent high at 2728.5 should result in a further move higher.
We look to Buy a break of 2728.5 (stop at 2708.5)
Our profit targets will be 2778.5 and 2788.5
Resistance: 2726.3 / 2735.7 / 2750.0
Support: 2710.0 / 2695.0 / 2675.5
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XAUUSD - 4hr Bum n Run updateLong story short... The market is currently playing inside the zone 2625-2655. (30pip range)
Gold should maintain above 2615. a Close below this level counld invalidate the Bump and run pattern and continue with more bearish pressure.
Its NFP week and you know the USD has been gaining strength. Wait for the breakout above 2655 before entering another Buy. We need strong bullish candles with high volume to make this setup a low-risk trade.
The targets are still the same:
Targets:
1 - 2685 (quarter 3 high)
2 - 2710 (target 1)
3 - 2750 (target 2)
4 - ATH
XAUUSD / Bearish Volatility Amid CPI ExpectationsGold Technical Analysis
The price reached our target perfectly in the previous idea.
Today the market will be volatile due to the CPI results, and we expect bearish momentum depending on the expectation is excced the previous result, so that will make a bearish volatility on the GOLD market.
As long as trades below 2706 will be bearish to get 2678, to get a more bearish area should close 4h or 1h candle below 2678 to touch 2665 and 2653
On the other hand, to be bullish should CPI release less than 2.7% to get 2719 and 2732
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 2705
Resistance Levels: 2719, 2732, 2739
Support Levels: 2678, 2665, 2653
Trend Outlook: Bearish Volatile
XAUUSD - 4hr Bum n Run update (final)Let the Trade ride! Understand pullbacks will happen but the price is in motion. Respect the trend.
Gold has officially broken about the accumulation phase. Price has retraced back to previous resistance confirming new support. (2675)
Keep in mind:
Today
Core CPI m/m and CPI y/y
Thu
Dec 12
Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m
**Both of these red news events could shift the short term. watch for wicks and false breakouts
XAUUSD - Gold waiting for the inflation index!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If we maintain the drawn blue upward trend line, we can witness the continued rise of gold and the limited visibility of the channel ceiling. Within the zone of supply, we can sell with appropriate risk reward. Returning below this trend line paves the way for gold to fall and you can buy within the zone of demand.
According to a report by Bank of America, gold remains on track to reach $3,000 per ounce next year. However, investors need to be patient, as the current price consolidation phase may continue through the first half of the year.
Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America, stated during the bank’s 2025 Outlook webinar: “Currently, gold is stuck in an environment where there’s nothing tangible to draw investors back into the market.”
The second-largest U.S. bank has highlighted that gold faces significant challenges in the upcoming year, including weak demand from China and pressures on Western investors, who are dealing with the prospect of higher bond yields and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
The report noted, “The Trump administration is likely to pursue a mixed economic policy that, through stronger growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar, could limit investors’ willingness to increase gold purchases in the short term.”
Bank of America strategists predict that Trump’s economic policies, such as potential trade tariffs and similar measures, may force the Federal Reserve to slow down its pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Analysts expect only two rate cuts next year, one in March and the other in June.
Despite these challenges, precious metals experts believe that gold and silver will remain well-supported in the coming year as economic uncertainties and geopolitical turmoil continue to boost demand for safe-haven assets.
According to a recent Reuters poll of economists, 56 out of 97 respondents forecast that the Federal Reserve will lower its interest rate to 3.50–3.75% or lower by the end of 2025. Furthermore, 93 out of 103 economists surveyed predict that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points during its December 18 meeting, bringing the rate to a range of 4.50–4.25%.
Investors are now focusing on the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to have increased by 0.3% in November. This data could shape expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s 2025 policy stance.
Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital, commented: “An expected CPI number essentially gives the Federal Reserve the green light to cut interest rates next week, and this could be the catalyst that gold has been waiting for.”
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs views the recent decline in gold prices as merely a fluctuation and expects the metal to resume its upward trajectory soon.
Goldman Sachs cited the following reasons for its outlook:
• Accommodative monetary policies
• Central bank purchases of gold
• A return of investors to the gold market
The bank also pointed out that during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent freezing of Russian assets by Western nations, gold emerged as an attractive alternative to the U.S. dollar. Many central banks around the world turned to gold to diversify their reserves.
Goldman Sachs stated: “We do not expect central bank demand for gold to decline. With the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates, investors will also reenter the market. We project that gold prices will reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.”
Overlap resistance ahead?XAU/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 2,714.61
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 2,758.14
Why we like it:
there is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 2,667.31
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GOLD RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅GOLD is approaching a supply level of 2,720$
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bearish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
SHORT🔥
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GOLD - Price can bounce from resistance level and start to fallHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price made a strong upward impulse to $2720 points, thereby breaking $2665 level.
But then, price turned around and started to decline inside triangle, breaking $2665 level one more time.
Next, Gold fell to support area, after which started to grow and soon reached $2665 level, after which made a correction.
Later price rose to resistance line of triangle, after which corrected to $2620 support level and then started to grow.
Recently, Gold reached resistance line of the triangle, exited from this pattern, and even made retest.
Now price trades below the resistance level and I think Gold can bounce down from this level to $2630
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 2,657.39
1st Support: 2,618.57
1st Resistance: 2,708.74
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Last Leg XAUOverall uptrend still needs a leg to complete its wave.
Considering higher lows of around -10%, the recent drop is the 4th point in our Elliot Wave analysis.
Last leg is to form the head and shoulders, synonym of long term tops.
I think the focus will be towards currencies, with countries focusing on Trumponomics, strengthening currencies for the dollar against tariffs. PBOC just reached an ATH in their gold hoarding.
Dollar itself might feel some headwind, because of the recent rise in DXY, a cool down soon is expected with my lower yields analysis. This would go well with foreign currencies reaching up while some headwind causes the USD to lag.
Let's see
All Stars Aligned: Bitcoin, Gold, Fiat, and DebtThis post explores the idea that Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," might one day replace gold as the preferred store of value.
Gold’s price (shown in yellow) has traditionally been sensitive to inflation, which is influenced by money printing, as indicated by the US M2 money supply (shown in white on the chart). Geopolitical and economic insecurity also drives demand for gold, the "safe-haven" metal. To add further context, I've also included US debt (shown in red).
The chart reveals that the market seems to have found some form of equilibrium at current levels, with gold’s price finally tracking the M2 money supply and debt parameters closely. Interestingly, Bitcoin (shown in orange) has mirrored this behavior in a similar fast-paced manner.
Around the $3,000 mark for gold and near $100,000 for Bitcoin, both assets are aligning with the money supply and debt trends. This suggests that any further price increases could be limited unless additional money is printed or debt increases. Of course, a Black Swan event could disrupt this equilibrium at any time.
I also used TradingView’s Correlation Coefficient tool to examine the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. The correlation is impressively high at 0.87, indicating an almost perfect alignment between the two assets.
The chart supports the idea that Bitcoin is tracking gold closely, strengthening the notion that Bitcoin could indeed be positioning itself as the "digital gold" of the future.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!