XAU/USD: Citi Sees 50bp Rate Cut After NFP XAU/USD: Citi Sees 50bp Rate Cut After NFP
Citi anticipates the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will show 125,000 new jobs, leading to a 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Citi suggested in a note to Clients on Tuesday that if payrolls come in between 125,000 - 175,000, a 50-basis point rate cut is likely from the Fed.
The 4H chart for XAU/USD indicates that buyers may be stepping in on dips following the release of US JOLTs Job Openings data, which revealed fewer openings than expected in July. However, if Gold continues to weaken, the next likely support level is around $2,470-$2,460. A decisive break below this support level could alter the outlook for Gold, indicating that the commodity could be entering a more pronounced downtrend.
D-XAU
GOLD - Price can bounce down from support line to $2480 levelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price reached support level and then bounced down to support line, after which started to grow.
Then XAU reached $2480 level again, broke it, and started to trades inside flat, where it rose to top part at once.
After this, price corrected to bottom part of flat and then in a short time backed up to to $2530 level.
Price some time traded very close to this level and a not long time ago fell to support line and broke it.
Also, price made retest, fell a little, and a not long time ago started to move up, and now it trades near support line.
Possibly, Gold can reach support line and then bounce down to $2480 support level, which is bottom part of flat.
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Buy Gold (Xau/Usd) ChannelThe XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential Buying opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Descending Triangle pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the Upside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Buy Entry: Consider entering a Long position around the current price of 2497, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2522
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order below 2489. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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Thank you.
GOLD Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is trading in an
Uptrend and the price
Is now making a bearish
Correction but after the
Retest of the horizontal
Support below around 2479$
We will be expecting a
Rebound and a move up
Buy!
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XAUUSD | 15m ForecastThe market made a bearish Break of Structure (BoS) and then took buy-side inducement. The market is likely to grab sell-side liquidity and then make a bullish move until it completes an entire buy-side liquidity sweep. After that, it will likely move bearish.
can take positions(long, short) accordingly followed by 15m clear confirmations at Killzones
XAUUSD | Forecast | Day Time FrameThe daily time frame has already confirmed a bullish trend. The identified resistance zone is the current area of interest, likely to sweep the entire buy-side liquidity, and then the market may move into a bearish trend for a while until it grabs sell-side liquidity (at least until inducement).
XAUUSD 4HR Analysis | The Bulls Are Taking a Breather | XAUUSD 4HR Analysis | The Bulls Are Taking a Breather |
Gold has recently hit an all time high of 2530 and since has tested the breakage of this level a few times, in my last analysis I provided a detailed explanation of the current mining production status globally and JPY/USD economic data that could impact the price movements in the bulls favour however it seems that short term we may see a correction into the upper 2400's before any renewed price surges, with the bullish momentum volume slowing down and various bearish confirmations coming into play.
Over the last few days Gold has broke below the dynamic support + resistance level whilst also dipping below the 200 EMA on smaller timeframes and the 50 on larger such as 4HR, with the recent completion of 25% to 75% quarters and a pivot off the upper bollinger band its likely that the precious metal could take a breather down to 2,460-70 where the 200 ema lies along with a key support and resistance level and the lower bollinger band matching 25% quarter level.
With the US holidays in action today the start of the week has been sluggish with little to no volatility and price sticking in its range alongside not being able to break back above the 50 ema and dynamic s+r, the bears remain in favour until price can break this structure level back into the 2520's and thus i would not consider any long term buys with so many key psych resistance levels in between us and the ATH pivot level.
I will be keeping close eye on the key support zone of 2460-70 for suitable long term buy entries and in the meantime trade intra on price structure and short term confirmations with my group.
Sell Gold (Xau/Usd) Ascending Triangle in H1The XAU/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent breakout from a Ascending Triangle Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position Below the Broken Trendline Of The Triangle After Confirmation. Ideally, This Would Be Around 2513.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2485
2nd Support – 2461.50
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 2530. This helps limit potential losses if the price falls back unexpectedly.
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Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING
Thank you.
XAUUSD 01/09/24Coming into this week on gold, we have a clear consolidation at the last major high. This suggests there is a significant amount of liquidity built above this high. We also saw a drop towards the end of last week, indicating that a sell-off may occur in the first sessions of this week. This is based on the principle that liquidity was starting to be taken, making a sell-off at the open more likely as buyers step in. This could lead to price action moving lower before rising back into the highs, ultimately targeting the liquid highs we have marked.
Please note the two areas of liquidity below and the two areas we’ve marked. These are the points where we are watching for price action to turn bullish, but we are primarily focused on a slight pullback before going long. Also, take note that the liquid low and overall trajectory of price action have changed, so a pullback seems logical in this scenario. Aim for the high and expect a new all-time high to be formed on gold. If we break down through the lows and do not see a positive reaction, I will look to go short in the new downward trend. However, this will be short-term, as our long-term bias remains bullish. Therefore, I will be more focused on finding a long position and holding onto any shorts.
Trade your plan and always stick to your risk management.
Trade your plan and always stick to your risk.
Downside Ahead for Gold - COT Strategy SellDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Most short Commercials have been since January 2021. Large specs longest they have been since March 2020.
OI Analysis: Price upward consolidation since April has seen Commercials heavily selling = bearish. Large Specs at longest positioning since March 2020 = bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for gold to go down in September
Spread: Bearish spread divergence
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals.
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
GOLD Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD broke out of the
Narrowing wedge pattern
And the breakout is confirmed
So despite the fact that we
Are bullish biased mid-term
We will be expecting a
Local bearish move down
Sell!
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XAU USDtaking sell trade for (xau/usd) from (entry) 2520.975$ to (target) 2504.200$ knowing that my stop loss is 2527.120$
SMC : CHOCH AND IMB
SK + price action : Negative reaction to gold and the beginning of the formation of negative scions on the SK analysis system from the price action areas according to the school of price behavior.
Where we notice the price rebounding from the Fibo 0.5 areas.
When closing with a candle below $2515.08, we will go to the target of $2504.2, and we may witness some upward corrections with the aim of giving second opportunities to enter sell.
HelenP. I Gold will grow a little and then drop to support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price rebounded from support 2 and dropped to the trend line, after which at once started to grow. After this, Gold quickly rose to support 2, which coincided with the support zone, some time traded in this area, and then broke support 2. Next, the price entered to consolidation, where it corrected once, and then rebounded up to the top part of the range and even entered to one more support zone. But soon, XAU turned around and dropped to support 2, making a fake breakout of support 1 and breaking the trend line. After this movement, XAU started to grow between the trend line, and a short time later it reached support 1 again, breaking the trend line one more time. Gold broke support 1 and continued to move up near the trend line. Now, I expect that XAUUSD will rise one more time and then drop to a support level, breaking the trend line. For this reason, my goal is the 2470 support level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
XAUUSD - 1H Bearish signsOANDA:XAUUSD is showing clear signs of weakness after struggling under resistance at $2,525. The recent break of trendline support, followed by a pullback, sets the stage for a significant drop. A logical stop loss above the resistance and a target near the bottom of the trading range could offer a solid risk-reward opportunity. Expect a move below $2,500 soon.
Gold shows signs of exhaustion at its record highGold may have reached a record high on Tuesday, but it then handed back more than half of the day's gains to leave a long upper wick. The ATH met resistance at the weekly R2 pivot and the daily RSI (2) has formed a bearish divergence in the overbought zone.
A momentum shift can be seen at the ATH on the 1-hour chart. A bearish divergence has also formed on this timeframe. The bias is to fade into retracements within yesterday's range to target the 2540/45 range, near the 50-bar EMA and HVN (high-volume node).
Can Gold’s Uptrend Survive Friday’s PCE Data? Can Gold’s Uptrend Survive Friday’s PCE Data?
Gold prices slipped over 0.7% on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar rebounded, setting the stage for a pivotal close to the month with key inflation data on the horizon.
Markets are bracing for the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The PCE data, due on Friday, is expected to show a slight uptick, according to consensus estimates. If the U.S. economic data continues to show signs of weakness, it could bolster gold’s recent uptrend, fueling speculation that the Fed might consider a larger rate cut in September.
Despite Wednesday's dip, gold's upward trajectory possibly remains largely intact. The metal briefly dipped below $2,500 but quickly rebounded. If prices remain above this level, the next significant resistance lies at the all-time high of $2,531.
GOLD Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD is trading in an
Uptrend and the price
Is likely to make a local
Retest of the horizontal
Support of 2480$ but
From there we will be
Expecting a rebound and
A further move up to
Retest the resistance of 2530$
Buy!
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Gold can start to grow from support line of upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. By observing the chart, we can see that the price some time ago started to grow inside the upward channel and soon reached the 2440 support level, which coincided with the buyer zone and broke it. Then it rose a little higher and then made a correction movement back to the 2440 support level, which moment coincided with the support line and then at once rebounded up. Gold reached a resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and made a fake breakout of this level, after which in a short time declined almost to support line of the channel. Next, XAU continued to grow and later reached the 2525 resistance level one more time and some time traded near. But recently Gold rebounded from this level and dropped, so, I think that the price can fall to the support line and then start to grow to the resistance line, breaking the resistance level. For this case, I set two TP, first at the 2525 resistance level, and second - at the 2555 level, near the resistance line of the channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD - Price can make small move up and then bounce downHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A not long time ago price bounced from $2385 level and then entered to triangle, where it fell to support line.
Then price made a strong upward impulse to $2475 level, thereby breaking $2385 level and exiting from triangle.
After this movement, Gold entered to wedge, where it at once fell to support line, but then started to grow.
In a short time, price rose to $2475 level, broke it, and then reached resistance line of wedge, after which fell.
Price declined to $2475 level, which coincided with support zone and recently it started to grow.
Now, I think that Gold can make one more movement up and then fall to $2475 support level, exiting from wedge.
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