a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #4Good day and i hope you are well.
Last time i talked about Nvidia was 2024-02-23 and Nvidia was at 823 and my targets were 900/1000. Time for an update.
comment: It's the stock everyone talks about and the peak insanity bubble of this generation before the next financial crisis. There, I said it. Feel free to stop reading now if you don't like it.
I look at charts and comment on patterns I see and what I think will most likely happen or not. If the picture is unclear, we are in a trading range. Obviously not the case for this gem. You can study parabolic wedge tops and see repeating patterns, therefore you can make predictions about the possibility of future price movements. This stock will be the posterchild of a bubble pop, just like Bitcoin was in 2021 when it did a 50% pull-back from 64000 to 30000. For you guys, I commented on the Bitcoin parabolic wedge top from 2020/2021 to illustrate my point. See below.
Probably 99% of twitter wants you to think Nvidia goes to infinity, just like Bitcoin in 2021 but they only do that at the peak of the bubble while the market is going parabolic. They are so euphoric that they never seem interested in studying market behavior in the past. If you truely believe them and the "this time it's different...", good luck. The party will probably continue some more, just like it did with bitcoin. But at some point, mostly the point where your friends, who know the same about the financial markets as about quantum physics, will tell you they bought Nvidia, it will turn because there is no one willing left to buy and the only thing the stock can do is go down to find new buyers. If that move is strong enough, well, the fair price might be lower than you think.
-dotcom everyone thought everything with an internet address could only print money for infinity
-gfc everyone thought housing prices can only go up and for sure this time it's different
-what shall we call the next GFC? Will it be the everything bubble? Who gives a flying f. Cycles repeat. It's never different. This cycle was just moved so far off, because of the biggest money printing experiment in history. Markets do not change because they reflect human behavior. This market will deflate and so will this stock.
Please rub it in my face when we are in 2025 and Nvidia trades at 3000. Please do. Maybe I will learn something from it.
Here is my usual writing for weekly recaps & outlooks
current market cycle: parabolic wedge top - peak bubble behavior
key levels: 1150-1500
bull case: Everything. Stock can only go up. Every dip is bought. Daddy Jensen is signing breasts and most people think AI will be an infinite money glitch.
Invalidation is below 1170ish.
bear case: No bear case. Every bull trend line is valid. Pull-backs are shallow and bought. Market is printing consecutive uber bullish gaps. If you think anything about this is bearish right now, look at the weekly/monthly tf and think again.
"But you are saying it will pop..." Well yeah but as of right now, nothing is deflating for this stock. I'm giving you my reasoning why buying into a W5 (third push up) while most indixes are at or near all time highs, might be a bad idea. When everyone and their dog is max bullish, you could think twice about doing the same.
Invalidation is above 1400.
short term: It's reasonable to expect another push up in this tight bull channel for a high around 1300-1400.
medium-long term: Over the next 6 months we should see the 1000 price area again and 6-18 months we most likely will see 800-900 again.
current swing trade: hell naw.
