ETH/USDT 4HInterval ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart on the 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price has broken out of the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support that held the price is $1867, if the support is broken then the next support is $1822, $1786 and then there is the support zone from $1751 to $1699.
Now let's move to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $1932, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $1979, $2017 and $2054.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move, MACD indicates a local downtrend, while the RSI, despite small price movements, recovers nicely, which will give room for further increases.
Dailyanalysis
BTC/USDT 4HInterval ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. Currently, the price is moving in the local uptrend channel.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see, first the price held a strong support zone from $30639 to $30423, then we have strong support at $30149 and then we can see a drop to the third support at $29353.
Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $30855, if it breaks through, the next resistance will be $31138 and then we have the resistance zone from $31363 to $31587.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is still energy to continue the move, the MACD indicates the maintenance of the local downtrend, while the RSI is moving at the upper limit, which can affect the sideways trend or a slight price drop.
BTC - Tow different scenarioHello, my friends.
In my previous analysis, I made a mistake. The market always has scenarios to surprise you, and losses and mistakes are part of the market. It is important for you to be able to manage your losses effectively.
Nevertheless, a series of events and news have caused price growth. Now we have two scenarios for the future.
In the first scenario, as the price approaches the upper bound of the ascending channel, it is likely to react and then bounce back to the price range of 30,700 before resuming its upward movement.
In the second scenario, if the price fails to break above the previous ceiling at 31,400, we might witness another price decline to the range of 28,800.
In the current conditions, I do not recommend entering any positions. I suggest we wait and see the outcome of the supply and demand battle around the price level of 30,000. Only then can we make a better decision for entering trades.
To succeed in the market, do not fight against it; understand it and go along with it.
ETH/USDT 4hInterval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to the review of ETH in pair to USDT, also on a four-hour interval. First of all, as in the BTC chart, we can use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel that the price has left the top.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark support, and as you can see, we have a support zone from $1862 to $1815 in the first place, but when the price goes lower, it is worth marking a second very strong support zone from $1745 to $1692.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here you can see that we are in a very strong resistance zone from $1886 to $1945, only when the price moves up out of this zone will it move towards the resistance at $2031 and then to the resistance at $2140.
It is worth mentioning that the exit from the channel often gives an increase at the level of the channel itself, which in the current situation can give an increase to the support area at $2031.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy is gathering more and more strength. The MACD indicator indicates a transition to a local downtrend. On the other hand, on the RSI after a strong increase above the upper limit of the range, we have a rebound, but we are still at the upper limit, which may give a slight rebound in price or a sideways trend in the coming hours.
BTC/USDT 4HInterval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to the Friday cryptocurrency review. Let's start by checking the current situation on the BTC pair to USDT, taking into account the four-hour interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the local downtrend channel, from which the price went up by the height of the indicated channel.
Now we can move on to marking the support areas when the price recovers from the current increases. And here we first have support at $29,994, then second support at $29,095, then third support at $28,342, however when the price goes lower, we have a strong support zone from $27,589 to $26,520.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the trend based fib extension tool, we can determine the places of resistance. And here we can immediately see that the price is in front of a strong resistance at the golden point of the fib retracement, at $31838, when it manages to break it, the second resistance is at $33,790, and when the price breaks it, it will move towards resistance at the price $36,247.
Please pay attention to the CHOP index, which indicates that the energy is gathering more and more strength, the MACD indicator indicates an attempt to maintain an uptrend, while the RSI shows a strong increase, which may bring a slight rebound or a temporary sideways trend.
BNB/USDT 4H Interval ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the BNB to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is above the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $240.3, if the support is broken then the next support is $237.8, $235.7 and $233.6.
Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance the price is fighting is $243.8, if it manages to break it, the next resistance will be $246.4, $248.6 and $250.8.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is still energy for the move, the MACD remains in a downtrend, while the RSI is in the middle of the range, which may indicate a temporary sideways trend.
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JUNE 23, 2023Events:
UK - Manufacturing PMI
USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks
USA - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USA - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
USA - Services PMI (Jun)
During Thursday's trading session, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq displayed upward movement, propelled by the statements made by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell's hawkish stance indicated that the central bank's tightening cycle was not yet complete, instilling confidence in investors. However, he also emphasized the Fed's commitment to exercising caution in its approach to monetary policy.
The Nasdaq, known for its heavy concentration of technology stocks, experienced significant gains. This surge in the index was primarily driven by the momentum stocks of prominent companies like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT). These tech giants showcased impressive performance, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the market.
On the other hand, the progress of the broader S&P 500 index was more modest compared to the Nasdaq's surge. While still displaying positive movement, the gains in the S&P 500 were not as pronounced as those in the technology-driven Nasdaq.
In contrast to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) remained relatively unchanged. The Dow is composed of large, established companies from various sectors, including industrials and financials. However, during this particular trading session, these sectors had a minimal impact on the index's performance.
Overall, the market sentiment on Thursday was largely influenced by Powell's statements, which offered a mixed perspective. While indicating a continued tightening of monetary policy, Powell also reassured investors about the Fed's cautious approach. This combination of factors led to varying degrees of upward movement in different indices, with the Nasdaq taking the lead, followed by the S&P 500, while the Dow remained relatively stable.
NASDAQ indice daily chart
S&P500 indice daily chart
DJI indice daily chart
During his appearance before the Senate Banking Committee for the semi-annual monetary policy testimony, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his stance on the likelihood of further interest rate hikes in the near future. This statement reaffirmed his belief in the need for continued tightening of monetary policy to address potential inflationary pressures and maintain economic stability.
Powell's perspective on future rate hikes was echoed by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman during the session. The alignment of views between Powell and Bowman highlights the consensus within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential necessity of raising interest rates as part of their ongoing efforts to carefully manage the country's economic growth.
The reaffirmation of this belief in further rate hikes signals the Fed's commitment to a proactive approach in addressing economic conditions and maintaining a balanced monetary policy. By emphasizing the likelihood of future interest rate increases, Powell and Bowman are providing transparency to market participants and indicating their intention to address inflationary pressures and promote sustainable economic expansion.
As the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in shaping financial markets and investor sentiment, the reaffirmation of the potential for rate hikes in the coming months will likely influence market dynamics and investor decision-making. Traders and market participants will closely monitor future statements and actions from the Federal Reserve for further insights into the timing and magnitude of potential interest rate adjustments.
US initial jobless claims
In the economic landscape, the stability of jobless claims at a 20-month high reflects persistent challenges in the labor market. This indicates ongoing difficulties for job seekers and potential concerns about employment conditions. Additionally, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which tracks various indicators to gauge the future direction of the economy, recorded its 14th consecutive monthly decline. This suggests that the Federal Reserve's efforts to moderate economic growth are starting to have the intended impact of slowing down the overall pace of expansion.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) has made a decision to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes during its 13th meeting under its tightening policy. This move has received mixed reactions from different stakeholders in the financial markets. Households, bond investors, stock investors, and foreign exchange (FX) traders have expressed their disapproval of the BoE's decision. This dissent stems from concerns about the potential impact of higher interest rates on borrowing costs, investment returns, and currency valuations. These stakeholders are closely monitoring the consequences of the BoE's actions and adjusting their strategies accordingly.
The BoE's decision to hasten the pace of interest rate hikes highlights their focus on managing inflationary pressures and ensuring economic stability. However, the varied reactions from market participants reflect the complexity and potential trade-offs associated with monetary policy decisions. As the effects of the BoE's actions unfold, it will be crucial to monitor the implications for different sectors of the economy and assess how market dynamics and investor sentiment are influenced by these policy moves.
UK interest rate
Despite the stabilization of the 2-year gilt yield above the 5% threshold, it failed to receive a substantial boost. This can be attributed to concerns among market participants regarding the potential negative consequences of the Bank of England's (BoE) proposed additional interest rate hike of one full percentage point. These concerns mainly revolve around the potential impact on the British economy, particularly in the property market. The anticipation of such a significant rate increase has dampened investor sentiment, leading to a cautious approach.
In parallel, the 10-year gilt yield has experienced a decline in response to the prevailing gloomy economic outlook. This decline reflects market expectations of a challenging economic environment and a lack of optimism regarding future growth prospects. The declining yield suggests that investors are seeking safer assets amid uncertainty, resulting in increased demand for long-term government bonds.
The possibility of Britain avoiding a recession, let alone a property crisis, appears increasingly unlikely in light of these developments. The market sentiment is shaped by concerns about the potential adverse effects of higher interest rates on the property market, which is a key sector of the British economy. This sentiment is further fueled by the prevailing economic uncertainties, both domestically and globally.
Turning to the FTSE 100, the index has approached the 7500 level. However, trend and momentum indicators are displaying negative signals, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. Additionally, the index is nearing oversold conditions, suggesting that it may be due for a potential rebound or period of consolidation.
FTSE 100 daily chart
The performance of large British companies has been negatively impacted by falling energy and commodity prices, influenced by a relatively weak reopening in China. This year, these factors have contributed to bearish pressure on the companies, and the situation has been further intensified by rising interest rates. Until there is a rebound in global energy prices, which is yet to materialize, the outlook for the FTSE 100 remains neutral to negative. The market will closely monitor any developments that could potentially improve the prospects for energy prices and subsequently impact the performance of the index.
Interestingly, in response to the 50 basis point interest rate hike, the pound depreciated instead of appreciating, contrary to the typical expectation. This reaction reflects the sentiment of the market, which believes that the challenges and uncertainties facing Britain outweigh the potential positive effects that higher interest rates could generate. The prevailing concerns and uncertainties surrounding the British economy have outweighed the impact of the rate hike, leading to a depreciation of the pound.
Turning to the gold market, prices experienced a slight decline on Friday, signaling a potentially challenging week and heading towards their worst performance since January. This decline can be attributed to the significant rate hike by the Bank of England, coupled with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. These developments have raised concerns among investors about the prospect of tighter monetary conditions. Market participants will closely monitor any further signals and actions from central banks, as they have a significant influence on gold prices.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold prices have reached a three-month low, breaking out of a narrow trading range observed over the past month, but unfortunately in a downward direction. This decline in gold prices indicates a shift in market sentiment and a potential weakening of demand for the precious metal.
Looking ahead to Friday's session, investors will closely monitor the release of preliminary manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. These indicators provide valuable insights into the health and performance of these sectors, serving as important economic barometers. The PMI data can influence market sentiment and investor confidence, as it offers a glimpse into the overall economic activity and potential growth prospects.
In addition to the PMI data, market participants will also pay attention to speeches from several members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Bullard, Bostic, and Mester. These speeches have the potential to shed further light on the monetary policy outlook and provide clarity on the Fed's stance and future actions. The comments made by FOMC members can significantly impact market expectations, especially regarding interest rates and overall monetary policy direction.
Overall, Friday's session is expected to be influenced by the release of PMI data and the speeches from FOMC members. These events will shape market sentiment and provide crucial insights into the current economic conditions and the potential future trajectory of monetary policy. Investors will closely analyze these developments to make informed decisions and position themselves accordingly in the market.
ETH/USDT 4HIntervalHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart on a four-hour time frame. As you can see, the price has broken out of the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the coming hours is $1864, if the support is broken then the next support is $1821 and then we have the support zone from $1785 to $1749.
Now let's move on from the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance the price rebounded from is $1939, if it breaks down the next resistance will be $1980, then it will move towards the resistance zone from $2019 to $2055.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy has been exhausted, the MACD indicates the uptrend is maintained, and the RSI has a rebound, however, we are still above the upper limit, which may give the price a rebound.
ETH/USDT 1D Interval ReviewHello everyone, I invite you to a review of ETH in pair to USDT, also on a one-day interval. First of all, with the help of blue lines, we can mark the downtrend channel from which the price breaks upwards, in the longer term, we can see that the price stayed above the uptrend line, from which it has already rebounded for the second time.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the trend based fib extension tool to mark the supports, and here we first have a support zone from $1780 to $1707, while when this zone does not hold the price we have a second support from $1644 to $1581, and then a strong support at $1495 .
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first significant resistance at $1921, the next resistance is at $2010 and then the third very strong resistance at $2100.
As we can see, as in the case of BTC, the ETH price rebounded around the EMA Cross 200,
The CHOP index indicates that most of the energy has been used. The MACD indicator indicates a return to an uptrend. On the other hand, the RSI shows a definite increase, but there is still some room left for the price to grow more.
BNB/USDT 1DInterval ReviewHello everyone, welcome to the BNB review on a one-day interval. As we can see, the price left the bottom of the uptrend channel marked with blue lines, what's more, leaving the channel downwards also gave a drop below the EMA Cross 20o and thus a return to a strong downtrend.
Let's start by marking the support spots for the price and we can see that first we have a very strong support zone from $240 to $210 which is currently holding the price, however if the price goes lower we can see a drop to around $172.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the price is currently fighting the first resistance at $251, the second resistance is at $270, the third is at $286, and further we have a very strong resistance zone from $301 to $323.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy is gaining more and more strength, the MACD indicates a return to an uptrend, while the RSI had a strong rebound and now we can see a rebound, but also that there is plenty of room for the price to continue to grow.
BTC/USDT 4HInterval ReviewHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price has definitely moved upwards from the downtrend channel by the height of the channel.
Let's start by drawing a support line and as you can see the first support if the price wants to pull back is $28785, the second support is at $28016, then we have a strong support zone from $27409 to $26801 and then a strong support at $25933.
Now let's go from the resistance line, as you can see the price has broken a strong resistance and it's important that it holds it now, the second resistance is at $31017 and once we break it we will move towards the resistance at $34838
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy has been used in the recent increase, the MACD confirms a strong upward trend, while the RSI shows a definite overheating of the indicator, which may translate into a rebound in the price.
THE DXY WILL DETERMINE THE EUR/USD NEXT MOVEFollowing this concept is very easy if you are a WAVES TRADER. DXY is at the final correction of AB. What we should be waiting and looking for is WAVE C to start building up in order to continue the bearish movement for EUR/USD to move in the opposite direction.
Good luck
ETH/USDT 1Dinterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, also on a one-day interval. Here, however, we will first mark the place of the current price, which remains on the EMA Cross 200 line, after the price dived, it quickly returned to the level of the EMA Cross 200, but for the moment it did not return to the uptrend above the line. Now, using the blue lines, we can mark the downtrend channel in which the price moves similarly to the previously presented BTC.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the supports, and as you can see, we have the first very strong support at $1663, but if the price falls below our golden Fib point, then the second support is at $1529, and then we have the third very strong support at $1364.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we see that the price is fighting with the resistance at $1747, going further you can mark the zone where the price has been moving for a long time from $1820 to $1883, only when it breaks it will move towards the resistance at $1946, then the fourth resistance at $2035 $, and then a fifth resistance at $2145.
The CHOP index indicates that most of the energy has been used. The MACD indicator remains in a downtrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, which can give a positive place for the upcoming price increase.
ETH/USDT 4H Interval Targets and StoplossHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart on the 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving below the local downtrend line.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future that we can take into account:
T1 = $1774
T2 = $1790
T3 = $1809
T4 = $1834
AND
T5 = $1864
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case the market goes down further:
SL1 = $1700
SL2 = $1656
SL3 = $1619
AND
SL4 = $1585
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy has been used, the MACD indicates an ongoing local uptrend, while the RSI has a large increase, which may give the price a rebound or a sideways trend in the coming hours.
XRP/USDT 1DInterval ReviewI invite you to review the XRP chart this time taking into account the one-day interval. As we can see, the price has moved down from the uptrend line.
Now let's move on to marking the support places for the price and we see that the first very strong support that currently holds the price is at $0.45, however, if the price goes lower, the next support is at $0.42, and then the third support at 0 $39.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see first resistance at $0.49, then second resistance at $0.51, third resistance at $0.53, then fourth very strong resistance at $0.55.
The CHOP index indicates that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move, the MACD indicates a return to the downtrend, while the RSI shows a rebound to the lower part of the range, which creates room for future increases.
ETH/USDT 4H interval reviewHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, also on a four-hour interval. First of all, as in the BTC chart, we can use blue lines to mark the downtrend channel in which the price is currently moving. At this point, it is worth watching the EMA cross 10 and 30 because as you can see, the red line 10 starts to move sideways and when it turns around and crosses the green 30 from the bottom, it will confirm the change of the trend to an upward one.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the supports, and as you can see, we can first determine the support zone from $1653 to $1626, but when we go lower, the next support is at the price of $1592, and then the third support at the price of $1539.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first strong resistance at $1690, then we have a strong resistance zone from $1730 to $1762, then we have a third resistance at $1793 and then a fourth resistance at $1839.
As we can see, the power of green candles begins to appear, but their volume is lower than the previous red candles. The CHOP index moves sideways, which can increase the price. The MACD indicator returned to the local uptrend. On the other hand, the RSI is moving at the lower end of the range, which may also indicate an upcoming price increase.
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JUNE 16, 2023Market Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Reach 14-Month Highs, ECB Signals Rate Hike, BoJ Maintains Policy
Notable Events:
Japan - Bank of Japan (BoJ) Press Conference
Eurozone - Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-on-Year (May)
USA - Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June)
USA - Federal Reserve's Waller Speaks
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved their highest levels in 14 months on Thursday, driven by encouraging economic data that signaled the US Federal Reserve's approach towards concluding its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes. This development brought great delight to investors, resulting in a significant surge in the stock market.
Furthermore, the release of several economic indicators indicating a decline in inflation played a role in lowering Treasury yields. This alleviated concerns surrounding potential future interest rate increases and significantly contributed to the exceptional performance of technology giants such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).
S&P500 and Nasdaq indices daily chart
Surprising Growth in US Retail Sales in May, While Jobless Claims Steady but Higher than Expected
During the month of May, an unexpected growth in US retail sales was observed, indicating a rise in consumer spending across various product categories, including vehicles. Additionally, data concerning jobless claims revealed that for the week ending June 10, the number of claims remained steady at 262,000. However, it is worth noting that this figure exceeded economists' predictions, which had anticipated 249,000 claims.
US Retail Sales
Decline in Import Prices in May, Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady with Hints of Future Increases, ECB Implements Rate Hike and Concludes Asset Purchase Program
In May, import prices experienced a notable decrease, marking the most significant annual decline in three years. This followed an earlier report in the week highlighting lower-than-expected inflation rates in April, further indicating a downward trend in pricing pressures.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates within the range of 5% to 5.25%, opting for no immediate changes. However, they provided hints that interest rates could potentially be raised by at least 0.5% later in the year due to persistent inflationary concerns.
In line with expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) conducted its recent meeting, implementing a 25 basis point rate hike. Additionally, the ECB formally announced its decision to conclude reinvestments of assets purchased under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) starting in July. These measures signal the ECB's efforts to adjust monetary policy in response to economic conditions.
These developments in import prices, central bank actions, and policy decisions have implications for various sectors of the economy and financial markets. Market participants will closely monitor future inflation trends and central bank actions as they assess the potential impact on investment strategies and economic outlooks.
Euro Area interest rate
Revised Projections Show Higher Inflation, ECB Signals Possible Rate Hike in July
During the recent meeting, notable revisions were made to the staff projections, indicating an upward revision in both underlying and headline inflation throughout the forecast period. Of particular significance was the projection for 2025, with a substantial estimate of 2.2%, surpassing the ECB's target.
Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, conveyed a high likelihood of another rate hike taking place in July. However, she refrained from providing specific guidance regarding the future trajectory of interest rates beyond that point, emphasizing the concept of a known destination but an uncertain path.
EUR/USD daily chart
EUR/USD Surges Following ECB Meeting, Bullish Outlook as Rate Hike Probability Increases
In the aftermath of the ECB meeting, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a significant surge, primarily driven by the increased implied probability of a rate hike in July. The probability rose from 50% to 80%, prompting a strong response in the market. As a result, the currency pair surpassed its 50-day moving average (DMA) and reached a level of 1.0950, indicating a remarkable increase of over 3% since the beginning of the month.
Looking ahead, the medium-term outlook for EUR/USD remains optimistic, largely influenced by the contrasting stances of the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed). With the ECB adopting a notably hawkish stance and the Fed signaling a gradual winding down of its efforts, market sentiment favors the euro.
The next target for a bullish movement in EUR/USD is set at 1.12, representing a significant milestone to watch for. As the probability of a July rate hike remains high and the divergence between the ECB and the Fed persists, investors will closely monitor the currency pair's movements in anticipation of further upward momentum.
Please note that financial markets are subject to volatility and can be influenced by various factors, so it is advisable to conduct thorough analysis and consider other market indicators when making trading decisions.
US Dollar Currency Index daily chart
US Dollar Weakens as Multiple Factors Impact its Performance
In contrast to the euro's strength, the US dollar has weakened and slipped below its 50-day moving average (DMA). This decline can be attributed to several factors that have negatively affected the currency's performance. Lackluster retail sales, an increase in jobless claims, a slowdown in industrial production, and the potential impact of a stronger euro following the ECB's upward revision of inflation forecasts have all contributed to the weakening of the US dollar.
Meanwhile, as widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has announced the maintenance of its current yield curve control policy. This decision resulted in further depreciation of the yen, leading to USD/JPY trading at approximately 140.7 levels. The BoJ maintains its outlook for inflation to decelerate later in the year. The central bank remains committed to implementing monetary easing measures while remaining attentive to economic activity, price developments, and financial conditions. The upcoming press conference following the announcement will be closely monitored for any insights into the BoJ's perspective on the recent yen depreciation and its potential implications for inflation.
Given these developments, market participants will continue to monitor the performance of the US dollar and yen, considering various economic indicators and central bank actions, as they assess the potential impact on currency exchange rates and investment decisions.
USD/JPY daily chart
BoJ's Tightening Measures and Wage Figures to Determine Policy Direction
Japan's economic recovery has been gaining momentum, increasing the likelihood of tightening measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The upcoming release of wage figures for May, in about three weeks, will be crucial in assessing broader wage pressures ahead of the next BoJ meeting scheduled for the end of the following month. Analysts anticipate a potential expansion of the tolerance range surrounding the 0% 10-year yield target at either the upcoming meeting or the one scheduled for September.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey: A Key Indicator for the US
Today, one important economic indicator to monitor in the United States is the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which includes a component specifically focused on inflation expectations. This particular component is of significant interest to the Federal Reserve as it closely monitors inflation trends. In April, year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.6%, but they subsequently declined to 4.2% in May. The survey results will provide insights into consumers' expectations regarding inflation, which can influence the Fed's decision-making process.
Fed Board Member Christopher Waller's Speech on Financial Stability
At 13:45, Fed Board Member Christopher Waller is scheduled to deliver a speech in Oslo, addressing the topic of "financial stability and macroeconomic policy." Waller's insights and perspectives on these matters will be closely observed, as they can provide valuable insights into the Fed's approach and considerations related to financial stability and broader macroeconomic policies.
Euro Area Final Inflation Data: Gaining Further Insights
In the euro area, the final inflation data for May is expected to align closely with the preliminary figures, providing additional insights and details on the inflationary situation. These data points will offer a comprehensive picture of the inflationary pressures in the eurozone, enabling market participants to assess the implications for monetary policy and economic outlook in the region.
Market participants will closely monitor these events and data releases as they shape market sentiment and influence investment decisions. The outcomes and implications of these developments will be crucial in understanding the ongoing dynamics and policy directions in respective economies.
BTC/USDT ShortTerm 4hInterval Targets and StoplossHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving right at the local downtrend line.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future that we can take into account:
T1 = $25598
T2 = $25793
T3 = $26074
AND
T4 = $26,433
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case the market goes down further:
SL1 = $25518
SL2 = $25366
SL3 = $25252
SL4 = $25,129
AND
SL5 = $24961
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is room to gather energy, the MACD indicates a transition into a local uptrend, while the RSI is moving around the middle of the range with room for the price to attack the current resistance.
Daily BTC 4HChart - targets and stoplossHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving below the local downtrend line.
Let's start with setting targets for the near future that we can take into account:
T1 = 25401$
T2 = 25579$
T3 = 25806$
and
T4 = 26469$
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case of further market declines:
SL1 = 25107$
SL2 = 24861$
SL3 = 24660$
and
SL4 = 24456$
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy has been used, the MACD, despite the price increase, remains in a downward trend, while the RSI has a visible rebound, we still have room for the price to overcome the current resistance.
Daily Market Analysis - Thursday June 15, 2023Market Analysis: Global shares decline, dollar recovers as Fed pauses rate hikes; ECB and BOJ meetings awaited.
Key events on the economic calendar include:
New Zealand GDP (QoQ) for the first quarter.
Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate announcement for June.
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision for June.
US Core Retail Sales (MoM) data for May.
US Initial Jobless Claims report.
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June.
US Retail Sales (MoM) data for May.
Eurozone ECB Press Conference.
On Wednesday, global stock markets saw a decline, while the US dollar managed to regain some of its losses. This came after the US Federal Reserve, as expected, announced a pause in its interest rate hikes. However, the central bank also hinted at the possibility of raising rates by an additional 0.5% before the end of the year.
During its recent two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve presented new economic projections that indicated a potential 0.5% increase in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. This projection was based on a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation.
US Fed funds rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for determining interest rates, unanimously stated in its policy statement that maintaining the current target interest rate range during this meeting would allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.
While it was widely anticipated that the US Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes, the focus shifted to the communication surrounding potential future increases. In a surprising twist, the participants of the FOMC adopted a more hawkish stance. The median forecast for the end of 2023 regarding the Federal Funds rate was revised upward by 50 basis points, now ranging from 5.50% to 5.75%.
SPX NASDAQ and DJI indices daily chart
Following the announcement, the closing results of the stock market exhibited a mixed picture. The Dow Jones index concluded the day with a decline of over 230 points, while the S&P 500 index managed to secure a modest gain of 0.1%. The Nasdaq index, on the other hand, experienced a more significant increase of 0.4%. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite index was primarily driven by the positive performance of AI-related stocks, including Nvidia and AMD.
In addition to the stock market movements, Wednesday started with Bitcoin surpassing the $26,000 milestone. However, it retraced shortly afterward and reached a 24-hour low of $25,791. Analysts are speculating that it may potentially drop further to $25,000. These sentiments are influenced by ongoing discussions on cryptocurrency regulation, which have been dominating the news recently.
BTC/USD daily chart
On the flip side, gold prices initially saw an uptick, reaching $1,959 per ounce during the session. However, as Asian traders kickstart their day, the price of gold has resumed its downward trajectory, edging closer to the $1,930 level. This downward movement can be attributed to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which has bolstered the United States Dollar (USD). The prevailing market sentiment currently favors the USD, consequently exerting downward pressure on the price of gold.
XAU/USD daily chart
The US dollar has demonstrated a decline against multiple currencies, resulting in a 0.32% drop in the DXY index. Among the currencies, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) experienced the most notable movement, surging by over one percent and reaching a three-week high at $0.6211. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP) registered more modest gains, each recording an increase of 0.39%.
NZD/USD daily chart
Despite the release of favorable exports and machinery orders data, the Japanese yen encountered a 0.9% decline, emerging as the primary loser in the Asian markets.
Investor focus was predominantly directed towards the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting scheduled for Friday. It is widely expected that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to bolster domestic economic growth. This anticipated approach is anticipated to have a favorable influence on Japanese stocks.
USD/JPY daily chart
Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is expected to encounter further selling pressure as interest rates rise in other regions, diminishing its appeal.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials, including the newly appointed Governor Kazuo Ueda, have expressed their intention to maintain the bank's yield curve control policy to provide support to the domestic economy.
Furthermore, the diminished anticipation of Japanese government intervention in stabilizing currency markets has contributed to the yen's weakening. While officials have issued verbal warnings, no concrete actions have been taken thus far.
Currently, traders are closely watching the upcoming monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for later in the day at 12:15 GMT. It is widely anticipated that the ECB will implement a 25 basis points increase in key rates. However, the Staff Economic Projections and the subsequent press conference by President Christine Lagarde will play a crucial role in shaping future policy direction.
Market expectations indicate that interest rates will likely reach their peak in July, with speculation of an additional rate hike following June's increase, followed by a potential pause in September. If the ECB adopts a more hawkish stance by implementing a rate hike, it is expected to exert additional selling pressure on the price of gold.
BTC/USDT 4H - Targets and StoplossHello everyone, let's take a look at the 4H BTC to USDT chart as you can see that the price has moved up from the local downtrend channel.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future that we can take into account:
T1 = $26,132
T2 = zone from $26383 to $26626
AND
T3 = $26970
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case the market goes down further:
SL1 = $25,951 to $25,655 zone
SL2 = $25413
AND
SL3 = $25,178
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is a lot of energy on the 4H interval, the MACD indicates a local uptrend, and the RSI is moving sideways around the middle of the range, which makes it difficult to clearly choose the direction of movement.
BNB/USDT Is this the end of the current correction?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the BNB chart in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. As we can see, the price has broken out of the uptrend line. We also see that we moved the EMA Cross 200 for a while, however, after breaking this strong support, we received a strong drop in price, down to a very strong 0.786 Fib support at $222.8. Should the current support fail to hold the price, we will be able to see the price drop further around the $184.6 support.
Looking the other way, we can similarly identify the resistance points that the price has to face. And here we can see that we have now hit the first resistance at $248.8 which for now bnb has no strength to break through then we have the second resistance at $288.6 the next resistance at $322.1 then the fourth resistance very strong resistance at $354.3.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy has been used up and is slowly increasing, the MACD indicates a continuation of the downtrend, but with a visible flattening after the last decline, while the RSI recorded a strong rebound that definitely broke the lower limit of the range and now we see a return to this limit and a large scope for future price increases.
BNB/USDT 4HInterval Targets and StoplossHello everyone, let's look at the BNB to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving above the local downtrend line.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future that we can take into account:
T1 = $240.7
T2 = $244.5
T3 = $247
T4 = $251
AND
T5 = $255.5
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case the market goes down further:
SL1 = $231.8
SL2 = $221.9
SL3 = $214.3
AND
SL4 = $206.3
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is still energy to continue the move, MACD indicates a local uptrend, while the RSI has been moving below the lower border for a long time and now we are approaching the middle of the range with room for further growth.