Dailyanalysis
XAU/USD 14 August 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Analysis/Bias remains the same as yesterdays analysis dated 11 August 2024
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following price printing bullish BOS price pulled back to discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high.
As previously mentioned, bullish momentum and pro swing/internal structure was unable to break and close above weak internal high, which could be an early indication that bearish pullback phase is incomplete and price will seek further liquidity before targeting weak internal high. This is what price printed according to my analysis.
Intraday expectation: Price has reacted at an H4 demand level, therefore, price to target weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Following bullish iBOS, price printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback initiation.
Internal structure is substantial, therefore, I have zoomed out in order to obtain a better view of structure.
Price has reacted at an M15 supply level, however, the move did not sustain sufficient bearish momentum and it seems weak internal high is being targeted.
Intraday expectation: Whilst I have mentioned that price may target weak internal high, price may well print a secondary reaction to the M15 supply level in order to gain more liquidity to complete bearish pullback phase.
M15 Chart:
The Leap - D3The Leap competition is live and so is Pinchpips.
Focusing on the behemoth of OANDA:WTICOUSD and $OANDA:XAUUSD.
Not typical markets but testing swing zones on the instruments to check efficacy on a daily TF.
SZ are set for OANDA:WTICOUSD but price action determines entry
Currently ranked 2716.
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DAILY FOREX MARKET WATCH: SILVER IS BULLISH!Silver is the market analyzed.
After respecting the W +FVG, a bullish BOS followed.
The D1 shows another +FVG was formed, a bullish indication.
I am looking for the D1 +FVG to be tested before price heads higher. It would be a great POI to
long from.
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May profits be upon you.
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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Comprehensive GBPUSD Analysis Ahead of UK General ElectionThis is a comprehensive analysis of the GBPUSD ahead of the UK General Election scheduled for Thursday, 4th July 2024. The chart has been marked to highlight key levels (Decision-Making Points) on the weekly, daily, and H4 timeframes. Below is a summary based on the price analysis:
Weekly: Strong Bearish
The wave structure on the weekly chart indicates a bearish expectation.
Daily: Bearish Wave Structure
The daily chart shows a second bearish wave structure with a lower low.
H4: Bearish Wave Structure with Pullback
The H4 chart has completed a bearish wave structure and shows a valid pullback.
H1: Bearish Momentum
This morning, a momentum low was made, and the current pullback aligns with the second bearish wave structure.
huge waterfall coming for GOLD this week, Be ready!GOLD may retest 2318 area and complete an inverted head and shoulders, and then head up to resistance level which lines up perfectly on trendline resistance AND lines up perfectly at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, this is a very interesting level for these 3 lining up this trendline has been valid for months and very strong trendline resistance that has been tested multiple times. I suspect GOLD will plummet down to 2300-2280 by the end of this week, probably during London session as from my personal experience I have seen this happen multiple times and have taken this opportunity to profit off this pattern
moreover the DXY has been making impulses to the upside and healthy retracements to continue with another impulse this week if the trend continues, keeping on eye on news to support this bias and watching these levels on particular the 2340-2350 area
GOLD [XAU/USD] Sell Structure for the Month of MayAnalysis of Gold Price Movement in May 2024
For the daily timeframe in May 2024, Gold has opened at a high level, indicating potential seller activity. The initial target for price movement is the open price of 2321.07 , serving as the primary take-profit point for the monthly structure. Utilizing Fibonacci analysis, the first take-profit level is identified at 2339.56 , followed by the open price of 2321.07 .
Key rules to follow when trading this structure include:
1. Market Structure (OHLC/OLHC)
2. Divergence
3. TDI Cross
When these conditions align, the likelihood of a successful trade increases. Remember to practice patience and apply proper risk management techniques.
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Daily Market Watch: GOLD is BEARISH!The bearish bias going into this week was correct.
The market printed a bearish candle for the day, on the way to completing an IRL to ERL
movement.
I'm holding the same bias for tomorrow, as we near the first SSL target at the most recent swing low.
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May profits be upon you.
Will BTC hold up for collection?Hello everyone, let's take a look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As we can see, the price remains at the upper limit of the downtrend channel
Let's start by determining the support line and as you can see, the first support on which the price is based is $66,150, if the support is broken, the next support is $62,510, then at $59,824, and then the fourth very strong support at the lower border of the channel at $56,532 .
Looking the other way, there is significant resistance at $68,248, and then just above the downtrend channel, there is a strong resistance zone from $72,012 to $74,000.
There is a visible downward trend on the RSI indicator, and each rebound gives room for another price drop, while on the STOCH indicator we remain at the lower limit, which should help maintain the price.
BTC/USDT 1HInterval Chart ReviewHello everyone, let's take a look at the BTC to USDT chart on a one hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving in the lower part of the channel marked with white lines.
Let's start by determining support and here, first of all, you can see a strong support zone from $67,238 to $66,289, while further support is visible at a level close to $65,000.
Now let's move on to determining the resistance points. And here we see resistance at the level of $68,240, then we have a second resistance at $69,299, and then the resistance zone from $70,041 to $70,959 is important, only when the price positively tests it will we be able to see new increases.
Looking at the EMA Cross 50 and 200 indicator, they indicate the continuation of the local downward trend.
The RSI indicator, which remains near the middle of the range, has room for movement in both directions, while the STOCH indicator remains in the upper part, which may again translate into a recovery movement.
ETH fighting against strong resistanceHello everyone, let's take a look at the ETH to USDT chart on a one-day time frame. As you can see, the price is currently bouncing off the downtrend line.
Let's start by determining the support line and as you can see, the first support in the near future is $3,530, then you can see support at $3,250, and then we have a strong support zone from $3,046 to $2,796
Now let's move on to determining the resistance points. And here we must start by identifying a very strong resistance zone from $3,821 to $4,110, only when we manage to break out and positively test this zone, we can see a move towards the resistance at $4,917.
Looking at the EMA Cross 50 and 200 indicator, they still indicate that the strong upward trend is maintained.
There is still room for growth on the RSI indicator, while the STOCH indicator shows a move towards the upper limit, so you should be careful and take into account a possible recovery.
BTC/USDT 4HInterval Chart ReviewHello everyone, let's take a look at the 4H BTC to USDT chart as we can see that the price has bounced off the upper boundary of the downtrend channel, potentially giving room for a stronger downward move.
However, if BTC tries to exit the channel again, the price must overcome a very strong resistance zone from $71,959 to $73,853. However, after breaking above this resistance zone, an upward impulse to the area of $83,029 will be possible.
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case of further market declines:
SL1 = $68,378
SL2 = $66,144
SL3 = $62,363
SL4 = $60,014
AND
SL5 = $56,634
Looking at the RSI indicators and the STOCH indicator, you can see how both of these indicators rebounded from the upper limit, which resulted in a downward price movement, with room for the price to recover more. It is worth mentioning here that the RSI indicator has approached the upward trend line, which is worth watching because relying on it may again result in an upward movement.
PreLondon Friday analysis☝️Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
The main purpose of my resources is free, actionable education for anyone who wants to learn trading and improve mental and technical trading skills. Learn from hundreds of videos and the real story of a particular trader, with all the mistakes and pain on the way to consistency. I'm always glad to discuss and answer questions. 🙌
☝️ALL videos here are for sharing my experience purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as a simulated, educational environment. Important disclaimer - this idea is just a possibility and my extremely subjective opinion. Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
BTC/USDT 4HInterval CHART ReviewHello everyone, let's take a look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price rebounded from the lower border of the downtrend channel.
Let's start by determining the support line and as you can see, the first support in the near future is $57,035, which kept the price from a major correction, if the support is broken, the next support is $54,139.
Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $59,506 which we are currently fighting, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be at $61,380, the third at $62,658 and the fourth at $64,334.
Looking at the RSI indicator, there is a rebound, but there is still room for the price to go higher, while the STOCH indicator is also near the middle of the range, which potentially gives room for the price to go up even further.
End of the week - Market analysis☝️Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
The main purpose of my resources is free, actionable education for anyone who wants to learn trading and improve mental and technical trading skills. Learn from hundreds of videos and the real story of a particular trader, with all the mistakes and pain on the way to consistency. I'm always glad to discuss and answer questions. 🙌
☝️ALL videos here are for sharing my experience purposes only, not financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as a simulated, educational environment. Important disclaimer - this idea is just a possibility and my extremely subjective opinion. Do not act based on my analysis, do your own research!!
✅ Daily Market Analysis - 01 MAY 2024Economic events:
USA - ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)
USA - S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
USA - ISM Manufacturing Prices (Apr)
USA - JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)
USA - Crude Oil Inventories
USA - FOMC Statement
USA - Fed Interest Rate Decision
USA - FOMC Press Conference
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 underwent a decline, terminating its five-month streak of consecutive gains. This downturn was propelled by apprehensions surrounding inflation, ignited by data highlighting wage pressure. Concurrently, this development aligns with the commencement of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average witnessed a decline of 570 points, equating to a 1.1% decrease, while the S&P 500 experienced a 1.5% drop, and the NASDAQ Composite saw a 2% downturn. Particularly noteworthy is the S&P 500's recording of a 3% loss for the month.
NDX, SPX, and DJI indices daily chart
The escalation in US labor costs throughout the first quarter exceeded expectations, primarily propelled by rising wages and benefits. This development has revived apprehensions regarding inflation, particularly amid a diminishing investor confidence in potential Federal Reserve rate reductions.
As per the Employment Cost Index, labor expenses surged by 1.2% in the preceding quarter, following an unrevised 0.9% uptick in the quarter prior. On a year-over-year basis, labor costs climbed by 4.2%.
This report emerges following recent data indicating a buildup of price pressures in the initial quarter, amplifying concerns surrounding inflation.
The downtrend of EUR/USD persists for the second consecutive day, with the pair hovering around the 1.0650 level during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Amid European market closures in observance of Labour Day, market participants eagerly anticipate the Federal Reserve's forthcoming policy decision.
EUR/USD daily chart
Despite the release of robust Eurozone data on Tuesday, the Euro encountered challenges in sustaining its upward trajectory. Notably, Eurozone GDP surpassed expectations, expanding by 0.3% in the first quarter. Moreover, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) exhibited stable year-over-year growth, meeting anticipated levels. However, the core HICP, excluding food and energy prices, exhibited a softening trend, albeit still surpassing estimates.
Investor sentiment remains optimistic regarding the possibility of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank in June, as a majority of ECB policymakers have signaled their endorsement for such measures.
On Tuesday, the Japanese Yen incurred notable losses against its American counterpart, reversing a significant portion of the gains witnessed the previous day, driven by the potential intervention by Japanese authorities. The primary contributor to the JPY's weakness is the substantial interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, a trend expected to persist in the foreseeable future. This, combined with heightened demand for the US Dollar, propelled the USD/JPY pair higher during intraday trading.
USD/JPY daily chart
Following the publication of the AiG Industry Index on Wednesday, indicating a continued contraction in Australia's private business activity for March, the Australian Dollar remains subdued. Despite this, market sentiment suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain its current interest rates of 4.35% in the upcoming meeting scheduled for next week.
The Australian Dollar faced additional downward pressure following the release of disappointing Aussie Retail Sales data on Tuesday, raising speculation about its potential impact on the RBA's interest rate stance. However, optimism stemming from higher-than-anticipated domestic inflation figures from the previous week has led to speculation that the central bank might delay any decisions regarding interest rate cuts.
AUD/USD daily chart
During the early Asian session on Wednesday, the NZD/USD pair faces selling pressure around the 0.5880 level. The New Zealand Dollar depreciates in response to worse-than-expected employment data from New Zealand.
NZD/USD daily chart
In the first quarter of this year, New Zealand faced a notable increase in its unemployment rate amidst a prolonged recession compounded by high-interest rate conditions. According to Statistics New Zealand's report on Wednesday, the nation's Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3% in Q1 from 4.0% in Q4, surpassing market expectations of 4.2%. Simultaneously, Employment Change figures recorded a decrease of 0.2% in Q1, contrasting with the previous reading's 0.4% rise and falling short of the projected 0.3% increase.
The upsurge in the unemployment rate may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to uphold its elevated rate for an extended duration to counter inflationary pressures. Market sentiment suggests that the RBNZ is inclined to maintain a restrictive Official Cash Rate, with any potential for rate cuts unlikely until 2025.
As the Federal Reserve initiates its two-day policy-setting meeting, market consensus leans towards the central bank maintaining its benchmark interest rate within the current range of 5.25%-5.50%, a level sustained since July.
Investors are particularly attentive to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent remarks following the monetary policy statement. These remarks are expected to carry substantial significance, with investors keen to glean insights into Powell's alignment with the market's less dovish perspective on the rate outlook.
BTC/USDT 4HInterval Chart ReviewHello everyone, let's take a look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price came out of the local upward trend line.
Let's start by determining the support line and as you can see, the first support in the near future is $64,988, when the price comes out the bottom, the next one is at $63,198 and then at $60,780. Looking further, we can see two important support zones from $59,393 to $57,736 and the other from $55,543 to $53,976.
Looking the other way, you can see resistance at the level of $68,928 and another one at $71,390, then the resistance zone from $73,225 to $75,642 is important, where the recently formed price peak is located, only when the price leaves it the top can move towards the resistance at level of $82,402.
Looking at the RSI indicator, you can see the moment of breaking from the support line, while the STOCH indicator can be seen falling below the lower limit, which confirms the current decline.
Will BTC maintain its price in the previous ATH zone?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the situation on BTC. As you can see, the price is struggling to maintain the level above the previous ATH, you should observe the behavior and be vigilant because just above a specific zone there is a very strong resistance level where the price should reach according to cyclicality.
The RSI indicator and the STOCH indicator show that we are maintaining the movement above the upper limit, which could potentially result in a recovery that would provide a healthy correction and gather energy for new increases.
🛢 CL OIL, H4 🛢 27 March 2024🛢 CL OIL, H4 🛢 27 March 2024
Crude oil prices retreated from significant resistance levels as market sentiment remained tepid ahead of key events. Investors opted to shed high-risk commodities amidst lingering uncertainties. However, losses were tempered by concerns over potential supply disruptions, notably after Russia's directive to companies to curtail output in line with OPEC+ commitments. With US crude inventories registering a significant uptick, attention shifts to the upcoming EIA Oil inventories release and broader economic performance for crucial trading cues.
Oil prices are trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. Suggesting the commodity might extend its losses toward support level.
Resistance level: 82.85, 84.10📉
Support level: 80.20, 78.00📈