Risk Sentiment Improves, GBP/USD Nears 1.3650GBP/USD extended its rally for a third session, trading around 1.3620 and holding close to Tuesday’s high of 1.3648, its strongest level since February 2022. The pair continues to benefit from improved risk appetite as Middle East tensions ease following Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
Despite the initial increase, investors remain cautious as doubts persist over the ceasefire’s durability and potential nuclear negotiations with Iran. Focus is also on Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, which continues to raise geopolitical concerns.
Meanwhile, Powell, in his congressional testimony, signaled that rate cuts are unlikely before Q4. He acknowledged that new tariffs could push inflation higher from June but maintained that the Fed is prepared to ease policy once conditions allow.
Resistance is seen at 1.3655, while support holds at 1.3540.
Dailyanalysis
Ceasefire Supports Yen’s StrengthThe Japanese Yen stayed strong near a one-week high around 145.5 on Wednesday, supported by risk-off sentiment and dovish commentary from the Bank of Japan. Several BOJ members favored steady rates with concerns over U.S. tariffs and their impact on Japan’s economy.
May’s Services PPI remained above 3% yearly, strengthening speculation that the BOJ could still raise rates later this year. Meanwhile, lingering geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of Fed rate cuts continued to pressure the US Dollar.
The key resistance is at $146.20, and the major support is at $144.85.
Silver Steady at $36 as Rate Cut Bets RiseSilver steadied around $36.10 during the Asian session, paring earlier losses after the geopolitical jolt. While the ceasefire cooled nerves, markets remain alert after Iran’s limited strike on a US base. Fed commentary also weighed in: Bowman and Waller leaned dovish, though Powell’s tone remains cautious ahead of his testimony.
The first resistance is seen at 37.50, while the support starts at 35.40.
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #116👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and the key crypto indices. As usual, I’m going to review the futures triggers for the New York session.
✅ Yesterday, a very important event occurred: Israel launched a military attack on Iran, targeting not only military facilities but also residential areas.
⚔️ Leaving aside the fact that war is always a global tragedy, the fact that Israel also hit civilian zones shows that the tensions between these two countries have entered a new phase.
💫 In addition to civilian casualties, key commanders of the Iranian military were assassinated in these strikes.
🏳️ Most countries such as the United States, France, and most of Europe supported Israel in this conflict, while only North Korea and Russia backed Iran.
📊 Given these rising tensions and the cancellation of Sunday’s negotiations between Iran and the U.S., the likelihood of war between Iran and Israel has greatly increased following the resolution signed yesterday.
⭐ This development has caused safe-haven assets like gold to move upward, while risk-on assets like crypto have started to decline. As you can see, Bitcoin has been falling since yesterday.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
On the 1-hour chart, as mentioned, after an initial correction to the 108436 zone, Bitcoin continued its decline down to 103606, breaking through the support level we had marked due to the war-related news.
✨ Currently, the price has found support at 103606 and has started a corrective phase. RSI has also exited the Oversold area and is now heading toward the 50 zone.
📉 In my opinion, under the current market conditions, we should wait to see how Iran reacts to Israel's actions. If war breaks out, Bitcoin is likely to drop again.
⚡️ Personally, I’m holding off on opening any positions until we get more clarity on the fundamental developments between Iran and Israel. I'm also not closing any of my longer-term positions that were opened in lower zones like 88k.
🔔 However, if you are looking to open a position, you could enter on a break below 103606. I don’t currently have a trigger for a long position and would prefer to wait for a proper structure to develop.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Bitcoin dominance moved upward along with the market decline and, after breaking through 64.18, continued its bullish leg up to 64.85.
🧩 It has since begun a corrective phase after hitting that resistance. If this correction continues, the next zone to watch is 64.49.
📅 Total2 Analysis
This index also dropped alongside Bitcoin yesterday, falling from 1.18 down to 1.12 after triggering a short.
🔍 The price has since corrected up to 1.14. If a new bearish leg begins, we can open a short position on a break below 1.12.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Tether dominance moved upward after triggering 4.68 and reached 4.89.
💥 If 4.79 is broken, the correction could continue. If 4.89 is broken, the next bullish leg in dominance will begin.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Gold Falls to Two-Week Lows Gold fell to around $3,350 per ounce on Tuesday, its lowest level in two weeks, as the ceasefire reduced geopolitical stress. The truce announcement, set to begin with Iran immediately and Israel 12 hours later, cooled safe-haven demand. The metal’s recent run paused despite lingering tensions in the region.
Resistance is seen at $3,355, while support holds at $3,285.
Yen Rebounds as Ceasefire Calms MarketsThe Japanese yen recovered to around 145.5 per dollar on Tuesday, gaining strength after the ceasefire announcement. Although Iran launched missiles at a US base in Qatar, causing no casualties, the gesture was largely seen as symbolic. Tehran’s decision not to target the Strait of Hormuz further eased fears of major disruptions.
The key resistance is at $146.20 while the major support is at $144.85.
Safe-Haven Flows Lift Silver Near $36.10Silver (XAG/USD) rose near $36.10 on Monday, snapping a three-day losing streak as rising Middle East tensions increased safe-haven demand. The gain followed US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites Sunday. Iran vowed to respond, while Trump warned any retaliation would be met with greater force.
Escalation risks continue to support silver. Additionally, Fed Governor Waller signaled a possible rate cut as early as July. Dovish Fed comments and lower rates tend to increase silver demand by making it more affordable globally.
The first resistance is seen at 37.50, while the support starts at 35.40.
Middle East Conflict Keeps Gold ElevatedGold traded near $3,360 per ounce in choppy conditions on Monday, as investors closely watched developments in the intensifying Middle East conflict following U.S. involvement in Israeli airstrikes on Iran. Over the weekend, U.S. forces targeted Iran’s three main nuclear facilities, with President Donald Trump warning of further action unless Tehran agrees to peace. The eruption of war between Israel and Iran has added new fuel to a rally that has pushed gold prices up nearly 30% this year.
Resistance is seen at $3,395, while support holds at $3,316.
GBP/USD Weakens Ahead of PMI ReleasesGBP/USD fell to around 1.3405 during Monday’s Asian session as safe-haven flows strengthened the US dollar amid rising Middle East tensions. Fears of Iranian retaliation after US airstrikes on three nuclear sites lifted demand for the Greenback. Trump said Iran’s facilities were “totally obliterated” and warned of stronger attacks unless peace is reached. Iran vowed to respond, saying it “reserves all options.”
Investors await June PMI data from the UK and US due later Monday. The Pound remains under pressure after UK retail sales dropped 2.7% MoM in May, well below the expected 0.5% decline and April’s revised 1.3% gain.
The BoE held rates at 4.25% last Thursday. Governor Bailey said rates are on a gradual downward path but warned of global unpredictability. Reuters expects 25 bps cuts in both August and Q4.
Resistance is seen at 1.3500, while support holds at 1.3415.
Trump’s Strike on Iran Lifts Dollar, Weighs on EuroEUR/USD dipped to around 1.1480 in early Asian trading Monday as the dollar strengthens following President Trump’s decision to join Israel’s war on Iran, escalating the conflict. Over the weekend, US forces struck three Iranian nuclear sites; Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump claimed the facilities were “totally obliterated” and warned of harsher attacks unless Iran seeks peace. The escalation supports safe-haven demand for the dollar, pressuring EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, the ECB cut rates for the eighth time this year but signaled a pause in July. President Lagarde said cuts are nearing an end, which may help limit euro losses.
Resistance is located at 1.1530, while support is seen at 1.1450
Yen Falls Despite Japan’s Manufacturing ReboundThe yen fell past 146 on Monday, its lowest in over five weeks, as the US dollar gained on safe-haven demand after US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites escalated Middle East tensions. Domestically, Japan’s manufacturing sector grew in June for the first time since May 2024, and services expanded for a third straight month, showing economic resilience.
The key resistance is at $148.15 meanwhile the major support is located at $146.15.
Silver Consolidates After Hitting Multi-Year HighSilver holds near $36.75 in Thursday’s Asian session, steady after a slight pullback from its highest level since February 2012. The trend remains bullish, suggesting more upside. A sustained move above $36.45–$36.50 confirmed a breakout from a descending channel, forming a bullish flag. The RSI has eased from overbought, and momentum indicators support a positive near-term outlook.
The first resistance is seen at 37.50, while the support starts at 35.40.
Gold Climbs as Israel-Iran Conflict DeepensGold rose toward $3,380 on Thursday, recovering earlier losses as safe-haven demand grew amid the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, now in its seventh day. Reports say Israel hit over 20 sites near Tehran, including nuclear and missile facilities, while the U.S. may join the strikes, raising fears of a broader war.
Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady Wednesday but signaled two possible cuts this year, despite high inflation and slowing growth. The move followed renewed pressure from President Trump for deeper cuts.
Resistance is seen at $3,370, while support holds at $3,316
BoE in Focus as GBP/USD Nears 1.3410GBP/USD remains under pressure for a third day, trading near 1.3410 in Thursday’s Asian session, as safe-haven demand strengthens the US Dollar amid Israel-Iran tensions. The BoE is expected to hold rates at 4.25% today. UK inflation eased to 3.4% in May from 3.5%, in line with forecasts but still above the 2% target. Markets still price in about 48 basis points of BoE cuts by year-end.
Resistance is seen at 1.3440, while support holds at 1.3260.
EUR/USD Slips as Fed Stays HawkishEUR/USD fell toward 1.1465 in Thursday’s Asian session, pressured by a risk-off mood as Middle East tensions rise. The focus shifts to speeches from ECB officials Lagarde, Nagel, and de Guindos for further guidance.
On Wednesday, the Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50% and signaled a slower pace of cuts, citing inflation risks from Trump’s new tariffs. The FOMC still projects two cuts in 2025
Bloomberg reported the US may strike Iran in the coming days, raising safe-haven demand for the dollar and adding pressure on the euro. ECB’s Lagarde said rate cuts are nearly done and that the ECB is well-positioned to manage current uncertainties.
Resistance is located at 1.1475, while support is seen at 1.1415
Yen Slips as Fed Holds and Risks MountThe yen weakened past 145 on Thursday, nearing a three-week low as the stronger U.S. dollar gained support from the Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook. Concerns over Trump’s tariffs and Middle East tensions increased safe-haven demand for the dollar over the yen.
The BOJ also kept rates unchanged Tuesday and signaled a gradual asset reduction. Governor Ueda noted that rate hikes remain possible if inflation rises.
The key resistance is at $145.30 meanwhile the major support is located at $142.50.
Silver Up Slightly as Markets Await PowellXAG/USD rose 0.3% to $37.23 on Wednesday, though gains were capped by a stronger U.S. dollar as investors turned to safe assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision. Silver’s safe-haven appeal remained, but the firmer dollar made it less attractive for non-dollar buyers. Markets are now watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for clues on future policy and near-term direction for silver.
Resistance is set at 37.50, while support stands at 35.40.
Gold Steady Near $3,390 Ahead of Fed DecisionGold rebounded from early losses on Wednesday, returning to around $3,390 as the Iran-Israel conflict entered its sixth day. Israel confirmed strikes near Tehran and reported missile launches from Iran, while President Trump’s national security meeting fueled speculation about potential U.S. involvement. Investors also focused on the Federal Reserve meeting, with no rate change expected but attention on guidance amid trade tensions and global uncertainty.
Resistance is seen at $3,430, while support holds at $3,350.
Yen Holds Ground as BoJ Stays CautiousThe yen held near 145.1 per dollar on Wednesday following three consecutive sessions of losses, weighed down by soft economic data and trade uncertainty. Japan’s exports declined in May for the first time in eight months, alongside drops in machinery orders and manufacturing sentiment. The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged and maintained a cautious tone, though Governor Ueda signaled future hikes remain possible. Trade talks between Prime Minister Ishiba and President Trump at the G7 summit showed no progress on tariffs.
Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.
Silver Gains on Tensions, Eyes on FedFriday’s strong U.S. data may support the dollar, as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 60.5 in June from 52.2, beating forecasts of 53.5 and marking the first gain in six months.
Geopolitical tensions continue to drive safe-haven demand, especially for silver. Israel struck Iranian nuclear and missile sites Friday, killing military officials. On Sunday, Iran began its fourth phase of response, warning of firm retaliation to further Israeli actions.
Markets now turn to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. While rates are expected to stay unchanged, futures still price in two cuts this year, possibly starting in September, supported by last week’s soft inflation data.
Resistance is set at 36.90, while support stands at 35.40.
Pound Stable as Markets Eye BoE, Fed MovesGBP/USD remains below Friday’s three-year high, trading around the mid-1.3500s in a narrow range during Monday’s Asian session. The pair shows limited downside as traders await a busy week of key data and central bank decisions.
Markets are watching the UK CPI on Wednesday and the Bank of England’s policy announcement on Thursday, both crucial for the Pound. The US Federal Reserve will also decide on rates Wednesday, likely guiding the dollar’s short-term path.
Friday’s UK GDP showed a 0.3% contraction in April, increasing bets on faster BoE rate cuts. The USD is supported by safe-haven flows due to Middle East tensions, though soft US inflation data has raised expectations for Fed cuts by September. A broadly positive global risk mood is offering some support to GBP/USD.
Resistance is at 1.3600, with support around 1.3425.
ECB’s De Guindos Sees Balanced Inflation RisksEuropean Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Monday that the EUR/USD at 1.15 does not hinder the ECB’s inflation goal, noting the euro’s gradual rise and stable volatility.
He stated inflation risks are balanced, with little chance of falling short of the target, and that markets have clearly understood the ECB’s recent policy signals. De Guindos reaffirmed the ECB is close to its inflation objective
Looking ahead, he warned that tariffs could slow growth and inflation in the medium term but expressed confidence in the Fed maintaining swap line arrangements. He also confirmed there have been no discussions about repatriating gold reserves from New York.
At the time, EUR/USD was down 0.09%, trading near 1.1537.
Resistance is located at 1.1580, while support is seen at 1.1460.
Stronger Dollar Pressures Yen on Geopolitical RisksThe Japanese yen fell past 144.2 per dollar on Monday, marking a second day of losses, as the U.S. dollar strengthened on increased safe-haven demand. This followed renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, with both sides targeting energy facilities and pushing oil prices higher. The rise in energy costs may reduce the chances of a near-term Fed rate cut as inflation and trade risks persist. Meanwhile, focus turns to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing the inflation impact of rising oil prices amid global uncertainty.
Resistance is at 145.30, while support stands near 142.50.
GOLD's rise has been steady, decisive move aheadGold is the focus, plain and simple. We’re in an ascending channel, and price is respecting that structure with precision, higher highs, and no major signs of exhaustion yet.
Recently a clear resistance level was just taken out, and now I am watching for the classic retest. That breakout? A big deal, and a strong clue as well. If that zone holds as support, that’s a green light for a potential upmove toward 3,460 which matches the top of the channel.
But if it fails, we could expect a slight pullback, it might mean we could be in for a healthy dip before the next move.
Bottom line: follow the structure, and don’t force trades here without confirmation first